To QB Or Not To QB

[Denny Green Fan]

I wonder if the Cards will try and package that second rounder with more

picks and move up into the bottom of the first round for a qb?

 

[juza76]

Accuracy % on passes 15+ yds downfield: Smith 82%, Nassib 77%, Barkey 52%, Glennon 50%

 

[Sam Wise]

Ok one major flaw with this decision is, there must be a QB worth the 7th pick. If not don’t panic for it. Too many teams in the past have take risky QBs and paid for it. We have already screwed up our Oline let’s not compound the issue by taking a flyer on a scrubby QB. Yes 1st round QB’s are the ones that go to the Superbowl, but most have been good picks by decent teams. There have been plenty of 1st round QB drafts that have just stunk since 2001. While my grading isn’t perfect, there have been 35 1st round QB’s since 2001, listing each would take up too much space, but by grade A-8, B-6, C-5, D-6, F-10

Yearly 1st round grade Average
2012- B
2011- D+
2010- D
2009- B
2008- A
2007- F
2006- D
2005- B-
2004- B+
2003- D
2002- F
2001- B

Basically don’t reach, most of the top QBs in this draft are 2nd round picks, this difference between the top 7 isn’t that much.

 

[john h]

I think the most valuable evaluating source is tape from when they played in college...not a generic game without continuity with your fellow players or system and surely not the combine. You draft football players, and the college tape over multiple games shows you the best indication and keeps one from getting sucked into the hype.

Agree along with who the opposition was and how good they were.

 

[Totally_Red]

Ok one major flaw with this decision is, there must be a QB worth the 7th pick. If not don’t panic for it. Too many teams in the past have take risky QBs and paid for it. We have already screwed up our Oline let’s not compound the issue by taking a flyer on a scrubby QB. Yes 1st round QB’s are the ones that go to the Superbowl, but most have been good picks by decent teams. There have been plenty of 1st round QB drafts that have just stunk since 2001. While my grading isn’t perfect, there have been 35 1st round QB’s since 2001, listing each would take up too much space, but by grade A-8, B-6, C-5, D-6, F-10

Yearly 1st round grade Average
2012- B
2011- D+
2010- D
2009- B
2008- A
2007- F
2006- D
2005- B-
2004- B+
2003- D
2002- F
2001- B

Basically don’t reach, most of the top QBs in this draft are 2nd round picks, this difference between the top 7 isn’t that much.

With new slotting system, you aren't penalized as heavily as in the old days.

But I agree don't 'reach' for a quarterback at #7 overall when there is no value there. I don't buy the but he won't be there in round 2 argument. If that's true, you do what Cleveland did last year and move back up into the first round for your guy.

 

[AzStevenCal]

1. No new Head Coach in their right mind is going to "look to next year" He is going to want to make his mark now, and drafting a couple of Guards in the first two rounds wont do that

2. You simpley cannot win w/o a QB...PERIOD. If the Cards go into the season with 2 new offensive linemen, Kolb, and Beanie and RW, and with the removal of Horton, this team will be as bad as last year.

Arians will take a QB early. And he'll tie himself to that QB for the next 4 years

Well, you left out an adjective and that's where the problem lies. Simply drafting a quarterback solves nothing if he's not a good prospect. I don't see a prospect in this draft that comes anywhere close to a sure thing. We need a GOOD QB, even if that means we have to wait another year to draft one.

Steve

 

[john h]

My top 3 qbs in the draft are Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon.
Glennon is an enigma. He was the best qb during the Senior Bowl week. Most will say that he is a reach at #7 but with the Bills and Jets needing a qb, he won't be there when we pick in the 2nd round. He needs to put on about 15 to 20 lbs (John Lott would welcome him) but he has the size and arm to become something special. Has already graduated and was and All-ACC Academic member so he does have some smarts.

Problem with waiting with your 2nd pick for a QB is that none of the 4 or so you want are even there. We may value a guy as a 2nd or even 3rd rd pick while other teams see him as a #1 round pick. It happens a lot. More recently Kappernick. I guess it comes down to how smart your draft crew is? One of these QB s this year may turn out to be next years all pro. There are no guarantees but one and that is if you do not draft a QB you want get one by osmosis. We were so smart we passed on Big Ben for who I do not recall.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

1. No new Head Coach in their right mind is going to "look to next year" He is going to want to make his mark now, and drafting a couple of Guards in the first two rounds wont do that

2. You simpley cannot win w/o a QB...PERIOD. If the Cards go into the season with 2 new offensive linemen, Kolb, and Beanie and RW, and with the removal of Horton, this team will be as bad as last year.

Arians will take a QB early. And he'll tie himself to that QB for the next 4 years

Fine.

Then draft a sub-average QB that won't see the field, and run out the SAME offensive line we have the last 3 years.

But, don't be complaining when the team looks as piss poor as it has over the last 3 years. Cause that is what happens when you make poor decisions.

So what you are saying is instead of drafting Adrian Peterson, and Jay Cutler, lets go back to drafting Levi Brown and Matt Leinart.

Insanity is........

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Well, you left out an adjective and that's where the problem lies. Simply drafting a quarterback solves nothing if he's not a good prospect. I don't see a prospect in this draft that comes anywhere close to a sure thing. We need a GOOD QB, even if that means we have to wait another year to draft one.

Steve

+1

Both teams that were in the Super Bowl had the best offensive lines of their conference, and neither had a top 5 QB.

If all you need is a good QB then how does the Chargers, and the Saints not make the playoffs ?

 

[john h]

If you take a close look at the past ten years of Super Bowl Champions---what jumps out at you is that in 9 of the 10 cases (save Drew Brees in 2010) the winning QB of the Super Bowl was drafted and developed by the winning team:

2013: Joe Flacco (1---2008---Ravens)
2012: Eli Manning (1---2004* trade---Giants)
2011: Aaron Rodgers (1---2005---Packers)
2010: Drew Brees (2---2001---Chargers---UFA Saints 2006)**
2009: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2008: Eli Manning (1---2004---Giants)
2007: Peyton Manning (1---1998---Colts)
2006: Ben Roethlisberger (1---2004---Steelers)
2005: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)
2004: Tom Brady (6---2000---Patriots)

Notice too that in the last 8 years, with the exception of Drew Brees, all of the winning QBs were 1st rounders.

What's interesting is that only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks in the draft.

What this suggests is that in order to increase its chances to win a Super Bowl an organization needs to pick a QB in the 1st round and be patient in developing him, because it usually takes a few years for the QB to win a Super Bowl.

All of the last 10 winning QBs are pocket passers.

When you look at three in particular: Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco---look at what they all have in common:

Good size---and excellent arm strength.

All three of these QBs were passed over by a number of teams in the draft---Roethlisgerger went to the Steelers at #11 in 2004; Rodgers went to the Packers after sliding down the draft to #24 in 2005; and Flacco went to the Ravens at #18 in 2008.

In Flacco's case---it wasn't really until this season that Flacco started to earn the full trust of the Ravens' organization and fans---

Listen to this scout's assessment of Flacco just two years ago:

"But Flacco has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and not go through his reads quick enough. he also has a tendency to turn the ball over in critical times (six interceptions and three fumbles in five losses in 2010)."

Imagine this---two years later, not only does Flacco win the Super Bowl, he did so by throwing 11 TDs and 0 interceptions---including an amazing 6/7 in the red zone for passes thrown into the end zone.

Just yesterday---in contemplating how the Cardinals are going to defend Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson for the next three to ten years, I was feeling convinced that the best choice the Cardinals could make at #7 this year would be DE/OLB Ziggy Ansuh, because Ansuh has the quickness, suddenness and speed to track these mobile QBs down. So does Jarvis Jones---so does Barkevious Mingo.

However---in looking at the QB situation and seeing how the odds of winning a Super Bowl increase significantly when a team has drafted their QB in the first round and then had the patience to develop him---I am starting to think that the wisest thing the Cardinals could do is make whatever move they can to draft Geno Smith or Mike Glennon in the first round. I am also growing more interested in Landry Jones and Tyler Bray---but Smith and Glennon clearly look like the top 2 to me. I like Tyler Wilson's grit---but he doesn't have the size or arm strength the others possess. Ryan Nassib has the "it" factor, imo. But watching tape of Glennon and Nassib side by side---it's very clear that Glennon is a much stronger passer.

Matt Barkley? I just don't see the arm strength---but I do see smarts and touch.

Landry Jones? Another Flacco type for sure---but not quite as strong an arm, but close enough, imo.

I think Smith will be taken before the Cardinals pick---but Glennon may be there at #7---with the Bills and the Jets drafting right behind us---

I think Glennon's the pick---that is if the Bills, Jets or some other team doesn't trade up in front of us---which I think is very possible.

Fresh off of watching Joe Flacco---teams are going to be more and more enamored with Glennon---

Imagine this---too bad Whisenhunt hadn't realized that Leinart was not his guy beyond Kurt Warner in 2008---because he took DRC at #16 and Flacco went two spots later at #18.

Mike Glennon, the Glendale Cannon.

With Bruce Arians and Tom Moore in the house---no time would be better than now.

When we draft if there is a QB even remotely a possibility to become a good QB you have to take him. No team can win with a terrible QB even if he has two all pro OT. It all starts with the QB where you want to believe it or not. You may have an F-35 most advanced fighter in the world but without a pilot it is just a hunk of metal. In the NFL you do not plan to win 2-3 years from now as things can change to quick. You do your darn best to win now no matter what your chances are. There are no 5 year plans in the NFL. They did not work in Russia and they want work here.

 

[AzStevenCal]

When we draft if there is a QB even remotely a possibility to become a good QB you have to take him. No team can win with a terrible QB even if he has two all pro OT. It all starts with the QB where you want to believe it or not. You may have an F-35 most advanced fighter in the world but without a pilot it is just a hunk of metal. In the NFL you do not plan to win 2-3 years from now as things can change to quick. You do your darn best to win now no matter what your chances are. There are no 5 year plans in the NFL. They did not work in Russia and they want work here.

I rarely say "you are wrong" especially since we're really only talking about opinions but I just can't help myself here. YOU ARE WRONG. If you try to build Rome in a day you're going to find yourself living in a hovel. You don't waste a high pick on a long shot. You just don't do it.

If there is a QB that rates out near the level you're drafting then sure, make a slight reach but every single quarterback that was ever drafted falls within your range of "remotely a possibility to become a good QB". I can think of no better way to doom your franchise than take a QB with a high pick simply because of need and the fact there is a slim chance he could succeed.

Steve

 

[Jetstream Green]

I never thought Wilson was not a first round talent, but the Hawks were able to get him later. The success of Wilson will cause teams to do the opposite, people will be reaching now sooner than before for a QB thinking that a lot of QBs now have more value than they warrant...though Wilson had first round talent in my opinion and will skew some team's opinions thinking QBs ranked later hold the same value.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I never thought Wilson was not a first round talent, but the Hawks were able to get him later. The success of Wilson will cause teams to do the opposite, people will be reaching now sooner than before for a QB thinking that a lot of QBs now have more value than they warrant...though Wilson had first round talent in my opinion and will skew some team's opinions thinking QBs ranked later hold the same value.

Like you, I never considered Wilson a reach. He had clear first round talent along with the highly coveted leadership qualities but they just got scared away (understandably) by his one big drawback, height. Anyway, I can see a first round talent dropped a round or two because of something like this and I wouldn't mind seeing us make this kind of reach but if the talent isn't there no amount of arm strength or size or moxie is worth the risk of a high draft pick.

Steve

 

[Duckjake]

Fine.

Then draft a sub-average QB that won't see the field, and run out the SAME offensive line we have the last 3 years.

But, don't be complaining when the team looks as piss poor as it has over the last 3 years. Cause that is what happens when you make poor decisions.

So what you are saying is instead of drafting Adrian Peterson, and Jay Cutler, lets go back to drafting Levi Brown and Matt Leinart.

Insanity is........

Impossible to do. Brandon Keith is gone. Rex Hadnot is gone. Alen Faneca is gone. Deuce Lutui is gone. And most important? Russ Grimm is gone.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

Well, you left out an adjective and that's where the problem lies. Simply drafting a quarterback solves nothing if he's not a good prospect. I don't see a prospect in this draft that comes anywhere close to a sure thing. We need a GOOD QB, even if that means we have to wait another year to draft one.

Steve

Fair enough, but I am in the minority here, and believe there is a QB worth taking at #7. Besides, it doesnt matter what we think, Arians and Keim will need to do the evaluation.

I just cant imagine ANY scenario where Arians doesnt take a QB early. I mean, hell, thats what his M.O is and being a first year head coach, he won't be saddled with these garbage QB's for very long.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

Fine.

Then draft a sub-average QB that won't see the field, and run out the SAME offensive line we have the last 3 years.

But, don't be complaining when the team looks as piss poor as it has over the last 3 years. Cause that is what happens when you make poor decisions.

So what you are saying is instead of drafting Adrian Peterson, and Jay Cutler, lets go back to drafting Levi Brown and Matt Leinart.

Insanity is........

I think too many people are reading about this 'weak' QB class w/o seeing some of the QB's actually play. (not saying you specifically, just in general) I agree overall it is weak but there is some talent at the top and , like I said before, Arians is going to want to grab one of them.

I think you have that analogy backwards. If say, Smith is there at #7 and they take Womack, THAT will be the Levi Brown to Smith's Adrian Peterson.

No chance we go into this season with a new head coach and his big 'impact' in the draft is selecting two guards or one guard and a second tier Tackle. Just isnt going to happen.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Fair enough, but I am in the minority here, and believe there is a QB worth taking at #7. Besides, it doesnt matter what we think, Arians and Keim will need to do the evaluation.

I just cant imagine ANY scenario where Arians doesnt take a QB early. I mean, hell, thats what his M.O is and being a first year head coach, he won't be saddled with these garbage QB's for very long.

Yeah, I don't see a worthy QB prospect at 7 but that doesn't mean there isn't one. Every big named QB I've watched has obvious flaws but it's so hard to tell given the differences in surrounding talent, scheme and level of opposition. Some of this will shake out at the combine.

Steve

 

[john h]

QB is a huge issue on this team, but why force the QB situation this year, when the projected opportunities for next offseason is so much more promising.

Not to mention this year's draft is full of great offensive line prospects.

We typically have enough wins to be out of the running for a top QB so you sure cannot count on next year.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Ok fine.

Who is going to block for whomever the QB is next year?

If the answer is Brown, Colledge, Sendlein, Snyder & Massie then my follow up is, do you honestly think things are going to be any different with the same line?

I cannot fathom that in a draft deep with offensive linemen, a team whose #1 problem has been that they do not invest in the offensive line and now have one of the worst in the league is to continue to make the same mistake and reach for a QB or some other position.

The Cardinals are free to do it, and any fan is free to think it is a good idea but a year ago it was clear as day our offensive line was going to bad and it was actually worse. Looking at the current roster I can say it again this year. If nothing is done to improve the line then it will suck again this year and so will the offense.

 

[john h]

I rarely say "you are wrong" especially since we're really only talking about opinions but I just can't help myself here. YOU ARE WRONG. If you try to build Rome in a day you're going to find yourself living in a hovel. You don't waste a high pick on a long shot. You just don't do it.

I am not offended at all Steve. You are correct it is just an opinion. Tell Larry Fitz we plan to build and win in 3-4 years and see what kind of response you would get. Our very good players would be out of here as fast as they could. It appears from all the so called Gurus forecast we will take a OT in the draft. Most think Fisher. I certainly would take one of the top 2 QBs if they are available and I do not think that is beyond actually happening. With FA and the CAP building for the future does not seem to be a successful strategy anymore. I would look no further than 2 years down the road.

 

[Duckjake]

Ok fine.

Who is going to block for whomever the QB is next year?

As long as it isn't sack a minute Kolb the Cards would be fine with what they have.

Leonard Davis, Reggie Wells, Nick Leckey, Elton Brown and Oliver Ross did an ok job of protecting Kurt Warner (375 attempts) and Josh McCown (270 attempts) in 2005. 45 sacks in 670 pass attempts. (That would translate to 38 sacks last season).

The problem was Grimm not the guys.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I think too many people are reading about this 'weak' QB class w/o seeing some of the QB's actually play. (not saying you specifically, just in general) I agree overall it is weak but there is some talent at the top and , like I said before, Arians is going to want to grab one of them.

I think you have that analogy backwards. If say, Smith is there at #7 and they take Womack, THAT will be the Levi Brown to Smith's Adrian Peterson.

No chance we go into this season with a new head coach and his big 'impact' in the draft is selecting two guards or one guard and a second tier Tackle. Just isnt going to happen.

?

So reaching on QB and passing on a better player is not a good.comparison?

By that logic you are saying Levi Brown is a better player then AP?

You want the Levi Brown of QBs that is all up to you.

Me? I want the team to get better and win more.

 

[john h]

You're right that we aren't winning a SB until we draft a franchise QB. It's up to our scouts to decide whether or not they believe there's a franchise QB in this draft. It's the worst thing in the world to pass on a franchise QB for another player. But it's the 2nd worst thing to draft a QB early in the 1st round and have him be a bust.

Where does trading a starter, a 2nd round high pick, and paying $60 million for a QB who has really never been an everyday starter fit into the "worst things". This was worse than the Leinart deal. So far this has been one of the worst things we have ever done. It has contributed heavily to being in CAP Hell today.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

As long as it isn't sack a minute Kolb the Cards would be fine with what they have.

Leonard Davis, Reggie Wells, Nick Leckey, Elton Brown and Oliver Ross did an ok job of protecting Kurt Warner (375 attempts) and Josh McCown (270 attempts) in 2005. 45 sacks in 670 pass attempts. (That would translate to 38 sacks last season).

The problem was Grimm not the guys.

Ok.

If you are fine with risking another year to find out, then more power to you.

I am not buying that coaching is going to help the lack of talent that is the offensive line. If the same list of players is on the line next year then get ready for another 5 win season.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I am not offended at all Steve. You are correct it is just an opinion. Tell Larry Fitz we plan to build and win in 3-4 years and see what kind of response you would get. Our very good players would be out of here as fast as they could. It appears from all the so called Gurus forecast we will take a OT in the draft. Most think Fisher. I certainly would take one of the top 2 QBs if they are available and I do not think that is beyond actually happening. With FA and the CAP building for the future does not seem to be a successful strategy anymore. I would look no further than 2 years down the road.

So draft a QB and give him 2 years to be franchise QB ? Great. Does it make the team better.

Why on earth is it 3-4 years if we invest in the offensive line ? How does that make any sense ?

How about we actually BUILD a TEAM, and not just worry about getting a Hall of Fame QB to cover up the fact our front office cannot bring in talent, and the coaching staffs can't improve it ?

The two Super Bowl teams this year didn't have a HOF QB, actually they spent the playoffs beating the HOF QB's they faced.

How ? With a good all around team, and superior offensive lines.

You improve the line, and you improve the passing game, and the running game.

All you have to do is go back and watch year after, year the Cardinals have the worse interior linemen that you can find in the NFL. And don't give me Deuce Lutui whom is on the bench where ever he plays (he only started for the Titans because of injury, BTW). Also, look at the offensive linemen the Cardinals let go, they never go anywhere and do anything.

Stop the madness. Build the line. Have an actual offense, and a team.

Cause are you really going to go to Larry Fitzgerald, and company and tell them they are going to be playing with the same offensive line again, and deal with having no running game again, and deal with having no time to run routes again, and deal with constant 3 & outs again, and be last in almost every offensive category again ?

The trick is, you cannot forget how poor the offensive line plays after the season ends.


I am obviously very passionate about my stance on this, but it is just an opinion. Good stuff guys this thread is a good read.

BTW - Sooner or later we will find out who is the 1 star bandit whom seems to have some insecurity issues. Flippin troll that he/she is.