Training camp scrimmage

[Superbone]

If our win total ends up in the mid to high 50s I'd be ecstatic. Heck, anywhere in the 50s would be wonderful.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Then why not say that their ceiling is 82 wins? Is 64 that much more realistic than 82?

Of course it is. I think we're going to be a good team, perhaps a very good team. Nobody has ever won 82 games in a season but a very good team can win 60-plus games. In the last 10 full seasons, teams have won 60 or more games 19 times. Only a handful of times have they actually reached 64 or more but it does happen. I don't know that I would have settled on 64 as my number as Errntknight did but I don't find it unreasonable for a "ceiling".

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

If our win total ends up in the mid to high 50s I'd be ecstatic. Heck, anywhere in the 50s would be wonderful.

So would I. I expect us to win in the mid 50's. I'll be happy if we meet those expectations.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

Before I watched the scrimmage I was high on the Suns and I believe I mentioned 54 games as a ceiling. I had said I thought Randolph could fill in at center and be a backup at PF. I'd also mentioned concerns about how well IT would mesh when paired with Bledsoe and Dragic. There was also a question in my mind about TJ being able to score in the NBA and doubts about his ability to play some PF.
Then I watch the scrimmage and like I mentioned I was impressed by how well II played with the two of our PG triumvirate. Meanwhile Len was looking considerably more capable than last year and Miles was looking good, too. Markieff was knocking down his midrange jumpers with ease and little bro was shooting well, too - so there was substance to the stories of them improving their games. Bledsoe's shooting had been favorably reported and sure enough he was nailing his shots, too. So our 'undersized shooting guard who couldn't shoot' (as SirStef liked to call him) had disappeared. Goran looked bad but that didn't concern me because we know what he can do. Goodwin put his added muscle to good use around the rim. TJ scored nicely on slashes to the hoop, as advertiesed. And Randolph was putting on a show - not only defending and rebounding but scoring as well - in a variety of ways. I guess I have to report that to my eyes TJ didn't appear to have the size to play PF except during a small ball episode.
The big question in my mind was how the heck would Hornacek find minutes for everyone.
That was my state of mind when I gave 64 as my ceiling for this team. By a ceiling I mean the lasrgest number of wins that I estimate to have a small, but greater than zero, chance of happening. Something like 1 chance in 20. So if I think 64 or more has 1 chance in 20 then I must believe that 19 times out of 20 it won't happen. Stated in that form I believe everyone agrees with it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Before I watched the scrimmage I was high on the Suns and I believe I mentioned 54 games as a ceiling. I had said I thought Randolph could fill in at center and be a backup at PF. I'd also mentioned concerns about how well IT would mesh when paired with Bledsoe and Dragic. There was also a question in my mind about TJ being able to score in the NBA and doubts about his ability to play some PF.
Then I watch the scrimmage and like I mentioned I was impressed by how well II played with the two of our PG triumvirate. Meanwhile Len was looking considerably more capable than last year and Miles was looking good, too. Markieff was knocking down his midrange jumpers with ease and little bro was shooting well, too - so there was substance to the stories of them improving their games. Bledsoe's shooting had been favorably reported and sure enough he was nailing his shots, too. So our 'undersized shooting guard who couldn't shoot' (as SirStef liked to call him) had disappeared. Goran looked bad but that didn't concern me because we know what he can do. Goodwin put his added muscle to good use around the rim. TJ scored nicely on slashes to the hoop, as advertiesed. And Randolph was putting on a show - not only defending and rebounding but scoring as well - in a variety of ways. I guess I have to report that to my eyes TJ didn't appear to have the size to play PF except during a small ball episode.
The big question in my mind was how the heck would Hornacek find minutes for everyone.
That was my state of mind when I gave 64 as my ceiling for this team. By a ceiling I mean the lasrgest number of wins that I estimate to have a small, but greater than zero, chance of happening. Something like 1 chance in 20. So if I think 64 or more has 1 chance in 20 then I must believe that 19 times out of 20 it won't happen. Stated in that form I believe everyone agrees with it.

You wanna bet?

People keep saying we'll use Warren at power forward, I don't see it either. I watch him play and I think he's a cross between Junior Bridgeman and Bernard King in both style and potential. I see wing forward, not a power player. He's got every shot, with varied release points, takes contact well and loves to score near the basket but it's not like he's going to post up or play with his back to the basket. Even if we went truly small I wouldn't use him down low. I'd put Tucker at the four before I'd use Warren there.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

You wanna bet?

People keep saying we'll use Warren at power forward, I don't see it either. I watch him play and I think he's a cross between Junior Bridgeman and Bernard King in both style and potential. I see wing forward, not a power player. He's got every shot, with varied release points, takes contact well and loves to score near the basket but it's not like he's going to post up or play with his back to the basket. Even if we went truly small I wouldn't use him down low. I'd put Tucker at the four before I'd use Warren there.

Steve

At the risk of sounding like BC... I feel like King would see quite a few minutes at PF in Phoenix. I don't think it will be Warren's primary source of PT but I think we will see him out there off and on.

 

[AzStevenCal]

At the risk of sounding like BC... I feel like King would see quite a few minutes at PF in Phoenix. I don't think it will be Warren's primary source of PT but I think we will see him out there off and on.

Maybe but he's nowhere close to fitting either the mold of the traditional power or the court spacing forward we'd prefer. Perhaps it would work in a lineup such as Isaiah, Green, Tucker, Warren and Len but I don't see how it would help us when we ran with two point guards.

Steve

 

[JCSunsfan]

Before I watched the scrimmage I was high on the Suns and I believe I mentioned 54 games as a ceiling. I had said I thought Randolph could fill in at center and be a backup at PF. I'd also mentioned concerns about how well IT would mesh when paired with Bledsoe and Dragic. There was also a question in my mind about TJ being able to score in the NBA and doubts about his ability to play some PF.
Then I watch the scrimmage and like I mentioned I was impressed by how well II played with the two of our PG triumvirate. Meanwhile Len was looking considerably more capable than last year and Miles was looking good, too. Markieff was knocking down his midrange jumpers with ease and little bro was shooting well, too - so there was substance to the stories of them improving their games. Bledsoe's shooting had been favorably reported and sure enough he was nailing his shots, too. So our 'undersized shooting guard who couldn't shoot' (as SirStef liked to call him) had disappeared. Goran looked bad but that didn't concern me because we know what he can do. Goodwin put his added muscle to good use around the rim. TJ scored nicely on slashes to the hoop, as advertiesed. And Randolph was putting on a show - not only defending and rebounding but scoring as well - in a variety of ways. I guess I have to report that to my eyes TJ didn't appear to have the size to play PF except during a small ball episode.
The big question in my mind was how the heck would Hornacek find minutes for everyone.
That was my state of mind when I gave 64 as my ceiling for this team. By a ceiling I mean the lasrgest number of wins that I estimate to have a small, but greater than zero, chance of happening. Something like 1 chance in 20. So if I think 64 or more has 1 chance in 20 then I must believe that 19 times out of 20 it won't happen. Stated in that form I believe everyone agrees with it.

Chances of this team getting 64 wins. Zero.

I am an optimist but 64 is way too far. This team is deep, but you can only put 5 players on the floor at a time. For instance, Randolph may have improved significantly, but that will have little to no impact since he won't be playing. The only way this team goes up from 48 wins is if there is significant improvement in the top rotation players. Now thankfully, I think there will be.

1. IT, rotation player, improves the pace, meshed with the offense. Could add to wins. But remember that Ish played well for us.
2. Frye. Loss of spacing, loss of post defense (yes, I said that), loss of size. decreases wins.
3. Keef and Mook. More time, both seem stonger, both seem to have increased confidence and honed skills. If the shooting in the scrimmage is any indication, this is a big plus.
4. PJ Tucker. No change.
5. Bledsoe. Looks better than last year. If he can stay healthy, we will consider him the best player on the roster by spring. This could be the biggest impact on win total.
6. TJ. If he can play D consistently he would provide a better balance at the 3 than PJ or Gerald, who each only are really effective on one end of the court. Big unknown here.
7. Bigs, Len and Plum. If they can play more consistently it makes everything better for everyone else. I just don't really seeing the rebounding improving which is the biggest need. Slight impact on wins.

That's about all the impact I see. Goran is not going to be better than he was last year. Zoran, Archie, Randolph, Green will NOT have positive impact on the win total. Green will be a negative just because he will not get as much time as last year.

 

[Chaplin]

1. IT, rotation player, improves the pace, meshed with the offense. Could add to wins. But remember that Ish played well for us.

Like your post, but WOW. Comparing IT to Ish Smith is WAY far off the reservation.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Like your post, but WOW. Comparing IT to Ish Smith is WAY far off the reservation.

I am not saying they are equal, but in figuring overall impact, you take away Ish's contribution and then add IT's. It lessens it a little. Its not like we are adding IT in place of nothing. IT's minutes come at the expense of Ish, Green, and likely Goran getting a little less. There are times when adding a player makes significant impact because it takes away minutes from a player who had negative impact. Think Green and Marcus getting minutes instead of Shannon Brown and Beasley. Big big improvement. But Ish had a positive impact when he was on the floor.

I hope this makes sense, I don't want to get in an argument over it. It would be interesting to total the minutes played at guard last year based on the players.

There were a total of 7872 guard minutes available last year. Here is how the minutes were distributed.

1. Goran Dragic 2667
2. Gerald Green 2339
3. Eric Bledsoe 1416
4. Ish Smith 1006
5. Archie 532
6. Barbosa 367

That totals 8327. The extra comes from small ball lineups and Archie and Green playing sf some.

So. What can we expect this year? Here is what I think (assuming a reasonably healthy year).

1. Goran 2500
2. Bledsoe 2500
3. Thomas 1500
4. Green 350 (any more minutes will be at SF)
5. Zoran 350
6. Archie 350
7. Ennis 200 and change

It is better. Much better.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Chances of this team getting 64 wins. Zero.

I am an optimist but 64 is way too far. This team is deep, but you can only put 5 players on the floor at a time. For instance, Randolph may have improved significantly, but that will have little to no impact since he won't be playing. The only way this team goes up from 48 wins is if there is significant improvement in the top rotation players. Now thankfully, I think there will be.

1. IT, rotation player, improves the pace, meshed with the offense. Could add to wins. But remember that Ish played well for us.
2. Frye. Loss of spacing, loss of post defense (yes, I said that), loss of size. decreases wins.
3. Keef and Mook. More time, both seem stonger, both seem to have increased confidence and honed skills. If the shooting in the scrimmage is any indication, this is a big plus.
4. PJ Tucker. No change.
5. Bledsoe. Looks better than last year. If he can stay healthy, we will consider him the best player on the roster by spring. This could be the biggest impact on win total.
6. TJ. If he can play D consistently he would provide a better balance at the 3 than PJ or Gerald, who each only are really effective on one end of the court. Big unknown here.
7. Bigs, Len and Plum. If they can play more consistently it makes everything better for everyone else. I just don't really seeing the rebounding improving which is the biggest need. Slight impact on wins.

That's about all the impact I see. Goran is not going to be better than he was last year. Zoran, Archie, Randolph, Green will have positive impact on the win total. Green will be a negative just because he will not get as much time as last year.

I think you are way off on Goran and the Ish to Thomas comments. Goran struggled and was clearly limited by his ankle problems last year. Our comments here have all been based on presumed good health. If that's the case, we might get the Goran that was a superstar for two months rather than the guy that was closer to average the rest of the season. Comparing the value of Ish to what Thomas is capable of doing is way off base. Ish had moments were he sparked us but his PER of 11.7 compared to Isaiah's PER of 20.5 paints a better picture of the situation.

We're all just throwing around wild opinions here so obviously there's nothing wrong with your assertion that "64 is way too far" but where would you put our ceiling? Since you think it is a much lower number, what is the highest number of games we could possibly win if we stayed healthy and everyone reached their potential for this season (not for their career, just at this stage of their career)?

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

This whole concept of a team's "ceiling" is silly. It's simply providing people with a way to make an insane prediction and then hide behind the "Well, I said it was their ceiling" statement.

The way this "ceiling" has been used in this thread, I could take it a step further and make a bold prediction that the Suns' ceiling is 82 wins and their floor is zero wins.

It's difficult to make a prediction on this team, and it's perfectly OK to say, "Yeah, I have no idea how far this team will go."
Dragic/ Bledsoe/ IT type of a thing has never been tried, so it could be the greatest thing since sliced bread or it may not be enough to even make playoffs.

This "ceiling" has to be based on something that's semi-realistic at least. I'd say that the Suns will win around 50 games with 3 games margin of error, so 47-53 is my prediction, putting the "ceiling" at 53.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Only 14 teams IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE have won 64 games. That's not a ceiling. It's ridiculous.

 

[Cheesebeef]

This whole concept of a team's "ceiling" is silly. It's simply providing people with a way to make an insane prediction and then hide behind the "Well, I said it was their ceiling" statement.

The way this "ceiling" has been used in this thread, I could take it a step further and make a bold prediction that the Suns' ceiling is 82 wins and their floor is zero wins.

It's difficult to make a prediction on this team, and it's perfectly OK to say, "Yeah, I have no idea how far this team will go."
Dragic/ Bledsoe/ IT type of a thing has never been tried, so it could be the greatest thing since sliced bread or it may not be enough to even make playoffs.

This "ceiling" has to be based on something that's semi-realistic at least. I'd say that the Suns will win around 50 games with 3 games margin of error, so 47-53 is my prediction, putting the "ceiling" at 53.

Agreed. 53 or 54 is the best this team can hope for IMO. Which is pretty good in year 2 of a complete rebuild.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I think you are way off on Goran and the Ish to Thomas comments. Goran struggled and was clearly limited by his ankle problems last year. Our comments here have all been based on presumed good health. If that's the case, we might get the Goran that was a superstar for two months rather than the guy that was closer to average the rest of the season. Comparing the value of Ish to what Thomas is capable of doing is way off base. Ish had moments were he sparked us but his PER of 11.7 compared to Isaiah's PER of 20.5 paints a better picture of the situation.

We're all just throwing around wild opinions here so obviously there's nothing wrong with your assertion that "64 is way too far" but where would you put our ceiling? Since you think it is a much lower number, what is the highest number of games we could possibly win if we stayed healthy and everyone reached their potential for this season (not for their career, just at this stage of their career)?

Steve

As I said in post #41, I think this team is doing well at 45-50 wins. So, 50.

 

[Phrazbit]

I think the team liked the way Ish pushed the ball up the court, but I disagree with the idea he played well. Ish Smith is and was, a pretty awful player. 3.7 points on 4 shots in 14 minutes a game, 2.6 assists and a PER of 11, oh and he shot 4% from 3, yes FOUR percent. Those are some really awful stats.

 

[Superbone]

Ish Smith came in and did a fine job for what he was expected to do. However, the talent gap between he and IT2 is staggering.

 

[Phrazbit]

Ish Smith came in and did a fine job for what he was expected to do. However, the talent gap between he and IT2 is staggering.

Yeah, the upgrade here is as large as going from Telfair to Bledsoe.

 

[95pro]

I hardly see any minutes for Ennis and Zoran.

 

[AzStevenCal]

As I said in post #41, I think this team is doing well at 45-50 wins. So, 50.

Okay, clear proof that I don't speak the same language as most of the people here. I asked you to basically do what I did, give that number that was at the extreme range if everything went well for us this season. Not the number of wins you think we'll have or the range of wins you think we'll have but the absolute most we could have. IOW, Dragic playing a whole season like he did for two months last year instead of the fairly average player he was the rest of the year. And Plumlee playing like he did the first two months not like he did once exhaustion and injuries caught up to him. And so on.

Now, I have no problem with you saying that 50 is the absolute most we could possibly win if things went well for us. And I have no complaints about the 45 wins as the minimum number of wins we could have if we stayed healthy, it's your opinion. But giving a range of 5 games for the absolute best and absolute worst this team can do suggests you have a firm grasp of their potential. I don't feel that I have that firm of a grasp so my range is 50 to 64 and for some reason, a lot of people have a problem with that. And not even the "we disagree" kind of problem but the "you're being silly or that's ridiculous or you're a coward" kind of problem. Go figure.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

We'lll probably see Zoran paired with his brother when we have games in the bag... let them have some family fun. But if his defense is truly good he could earn some minutes.

I don't expect to see many games where the opponent has it safely in the bag... it was true last year and I think it will be moreso this year - this team will be able to score points at a ferocious rate. And be a little better at getting stops when needed.

 

[Errntknght]

Other years we've had everyone give their best estimate of the teams wins for the year, just before the 'real' games begin. Last year I was fairly optimistic but I still guessed a wimpy 35 wins IIRC... I'm not making that mistake this year!

 

[JCSunsfan]

Okay, clear proof that I don't speak the same language as most of the people here. I asked you to basically do what I did, give that number that was at the extreme range if everything went well for us this season. Not the number of wins you think we'll have or the range of wins you think we'll have but the absolute most we could have. IOW, Dragic playing a whole season like he did for two months last year instead of the fairly average player he was the rest of the year. And Plumlee playing like he did the first two months not like he did once exhaustion and injuries caught up to him. And so on.

Now, I have no problem with you saying that 50 is the absolute most we could possibly win if things went well for us. And I have no complaints about the 45 wins as the minimum number of wins we could have if we stayed healthy, it's your opinion. But giving a range of 5 games for the absolute best and absolute worst this team can do suggests you have a firm grasp of their potential. I don't feel that I have that firm of a grasp so my range is 50 to 64 and for some reason, a lot of people have a problem with that. And not even the "we disagree" kind of problem but the "you're being silly or that's ridiculous or you're a coward" kind of problem. Go figure.

Steve

I know what you asked. I just can't bring myself to speculate in those terms. I might as well say 82. Its asking to speculate on fantasy. There will be injuries, players will perform below potential. There is 100% chance of that happening.

 

[JCSunsfan]

We'lll probably see Zoran paired with his brother when we have games in the bag... let them have some family fun. But if his defense is truly good he could earn some minutes.

I don't expect to see many games where the opponent has it safely in the bag... it was true last year and I think it will be moreso this year - this team will be able to score points at a ferocious rate. And be a little better at getting stops when needed.

After the scrimmage (which was a small sample size) I cannot see Zoran beating out Archie for minutes. Archie, with all his faults, is still a much better defender. He also can get to the rim with ease. The only area that Zoran has over Archie is outside shooting, and Zoran is not stellar in that category.

I think Zoran is this year's Christmas.

 

[SirStefan32]

Zoran is likely on the roster as a favor to Goran.
He is NOT an NBA player. Even in Europe, he is not a star.