What if Oakland Threw a Curve Ball

[JeffGollin]

Nearly every mock I've seen so far (including 5 in today's USA Today) assume the Raidiz will draft Jamarcus Russell.

Yet on SIRIUS radio (and now a rumor on ESPN) we hear that Oakland may consider signing Josh McCown. Although they still could wind up signing Russell anyway, the buzz is picking up the Big Al might go the big speedy vertical receiver (and BPA) route and draft Calvin Johnson.

Should Oakland draft Johnson, how would this impact the draft? (I imagine everyone's mocks would need significant tweaking at the top).

 

[joeshmo]

Depends.

They still seem to be trying to trade Moss. Havent heard anything on it yet but not hearing that anything is dead either still means they are trying IMO.

So, I dont think them taking Calvin is a curve ball at all really.

The closer we get to the draft I think we will start to here taht the Raiders are talking contracts with both Russell and Calvin. Like the Texans were talking contract with Bush and Williams last year.

 

[kerouac9]

I've been predicting the Raiders to take Johnson for at least a couple weeks.

I don't expect that the Raiders will go into the draft with their pick already signed (remember, this was a team that spend all 30 allotted minutes to select the 31st and 32nd overall picks one season), but they'll open negotiations with Russell, Johnson, and either Thomas or Quinn in the next couple weeks.

 

[abomb]

Since the first mock draft about 2 months ago that had Russell first, I was skeptical. I just dont see it happening. If a QB is not taken first, you have to expect a freefall of sorts and the Cards missing out on a player who would be there if a QB was #1.

 

[football karma]

Well--

Detroit could very well like Russell alot and has been being quiet in hopes of Oakland passing on him -- but if not, Detroit's pick doesnt change--could be Thomas, could be Quinn, could be Gaines Adams.

Russell probably doesnt get by Cleveland. If Russell goes to Detroit -- the pick is probably Quinn then Peterson then Thomas.

Tampa would be really bummed about Johnson going to Oakland. Gaines Adams is the likely choice, followed by Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson.

I am not sure Oakland not going QB would change things all that much --

I think the three most likely to be available players at #5 to be (in order of probability) Adams, Peterson and Thomas.

 

[seesred]

Adams, Peterson ,Johnson.....Three very good choices. I'm sure there are 25 or so other teams that would love this predicament.

GBR
40

 

[kerouac9]

The biggest problem will be if neither team (Oakland, Cleveland) takes a QB. Then all five blue-chip prospects will be gone by the time the Cards come up on the clock, and only two QBs that suddenly no one wants.

If only one team takes a quarterback (I believe the Lions when they say they're not in the market for a signal-caller--Martz doesn't need a top-shelf QB, only a guy that's willing to get put on his back 20+ times a game and can get rid of they ball. They'll be thrilled to get Stanton, Kolb, Palko, or Edwards.), then the Cards will actually draft great value (any one beside Johnson deserves to be a Top 3 pick--Johnson is far and away the best player in this draft), but they'll have to settle for less options and just take the best guy left.

In the unlikely event that 2 QBs get taken in the first 4 picks, everyone should be doing backflips. The Cards will get to choose their favorite between two of the top 3 players in their class. But if the Cards look at that and blink by trading down, it'll be a disaster of epic proportions.

 

[lobo]

Nearly every mock I've seen so far (including 5 in today's USA Today) assume the Raidiz will draft Jamarcus Russell.


I ain't complainin' cause I go through the same mental myself, but we as a group willl just about exhaust every possibility possible by the time the draft arrives. For you math types the number of combinations is almost infinite consdiering 32 teams and 7 rounds. Maybe at lunch time I will do the calculation and attempt to figure out how many there actually are invlolving our beloved. It beomes an infinite number because the possiblity of swaps of multiple draft choices.

 

[Skkorpion]

Wait until after Brady Quinn makes his visits. Then we'll see. Same with Jamarcus Russell. And remember, Al Davis loves Notre Dame players.

 

[Skkorpion]

Nearly every mock I've seen so far (including 5 in today's USA Today) assume the Raidiz will draft Jamarcus Russell.

Yet on SIRIUS radio (and now a rumor on ESPN) we hear that Oakland may consider signing Josh McCown. Although they still could wind up signing Russell anyway, the buzz is picking up the Big Al might go the big speedy vertical receiver (and BPA) route and draft Calvin Johnson.

Should Oakland draft Johnson, how would this impact the draft? (I imagine everyone's mocks would need significant tweaking at the top).

I see the McCown/Johnson thing as a real possibility but unlike K9, I don't think both QBs fall out of the top 5. If just one of the two QBs goes top 5, we will be faced with nothing but win/win choices.

And no, I have no clue on who we should pick if that scenario develops.

 

[Redrage]

Won't mean anything unless I'm right:

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?p=1249662#post1249662

 

[Evil Ash]

The biggest problem will be if neither team (Oakland, Cleveland) takes a QB. Then all five blue-chip prospects will be gone by the time the Cards come up on the clock, and only two QBs that suddenly no one wants.

How could five blue-chip prospects be gone when we pick at 5?

 

[Totally_Red]

How could five blue-chip prospects be gone when we pick at 5?

I think he means the four blue-chippers (Johnson,AP,Thomas,Adams) are gone and Arizona is left with the blue-chipper (Russell) who we would never take. I see almost no possibility that Cleveland passes on their choice of Russell or Quinn. They might even choose Quinn in that event. If that happens, the #5 pick becomes tradeable IMO.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

i don't think it matters as to who the Cards get because Cleveland will take 1 of the QB's.Assuming Oak takes Johnson that would leave the Cards with either AP or Thomas, most likely AP.
Oak-Johnson
Det-Thomas
Cle-QB
TB-Adams
AZ-AP.

If Det takes a QB i see it like this:
Oak-CJ
Det-Quinn
Cle-Russel
TB-Adams
AZ-choice of Thomas,AP

The wosrt case scenario is(unlikely to me)
Oak-Russell
Det-Thomas
Cle-AP
TB-CJ
AZ- i think they take Branch/Adams. Not bad choices but would much rather have Thomas or AP.

 

[red desert]

I see the McCown/Johnson thing as a real possibility but unlike K9, I don't think both QBs fall out of the top 5. If just one of the two QBs goes top 5, we will be faced with nothing but win/win choices.

And no, I have no clue on who we should pick if that scenario develops.

That's exactly right. All we need is one qb to go in the top 5.

 

[JeffGollin]

As I said more than once before - I hate this draft.

The only slam dunk pick I can get excited about would be Thomas if he falls to us.

To me, the single criteria which should determine who we pick at #5 (if we pick at #5) is:

"If we're playing a series of football games, which one of those guys will have the biggest impact on how well we do in those games?"

I believe Thomas' impact on our running game and pass pro would be immediate and significant.

After that I'm thinking:

A QB? You can never have too many good ones, but Leinart and Warner give us a good youngster/vet one-two punch and to add someone like Quinn or Russell would break the budget.

A RB? No. While we could use more depth, Edge can get the job done as our starter.

Another TE? Same deal. No one out there figures to displace Pope.

A WR? Well, you all know how I feel about our need to add a burner as our 3rd WR and KR. And Ginn could certainly change the complexion of at least a couple of games. But this WR crop is very deep, and we figur (like the pun?) to get a blazer later in the draft.

A Pass Rushing DE? Would he change the course of football games more than a tandem of Okeafor and Berry? Hmmm. Questionable.

Another run stuffing DT? If it meant that teams absolutely positively couldn't run on us and it got to a point where they'd stop trying, I'd say: "Draft Branch or Okoye if the coaches felt either one was the absolute answer. Meanwhile, it's not as though we're destitute with Watson, Clancy etc, there.

Corner? A really good cover corner with Assante Samuels talent could definitely make a difference. (Not that Antrel Rolle can't be solid or Eric Green doesn't have the potential to be that guy if he receives better coaching). It's just that both remain somewhat in the "if" category and the replacement of either by a really outstanding cover corner could influence football games. Rod Hood takes the pressure off us to add another corner for depth but you can never have too many really good shutdown corners. But based on shaky certainty they'll succeed in the pros, I'm finding it hard to get excited about any of the top corners - at least not in terms of even considering them at #5.

Safety? Adrian's not going anywhere. Francisco has earned the FS starting slot and figures to be more than solid. Still - if we were able to draft "Superman", and he could roam the deep area and make huge plays back there, he could have an impact on the outcome of football games. The two high picks who fit this profile would be Meriweather and Nelson. (I view Landry as a more talented version of Francisco - solid and well-coached but not necessarily a game-influencer). Wild card in all this would be the addition of Terrence Holt. If he can be our center fielder, would either Meriweather or Nelson be that much better?

Which leaves what? Linebacker. I believe that the addition of the right guy here could (next to Thomas) have the biggest influence on the outcome of games - week in and weel out. We needn't restrict our choice to a SLB, WLB or MLB because our current good guys are versatile enough to move around. Hayes and Dansby seem to be set as starters, with Dansby suited to play either SAM or WILL. Hayes probably can play SLB in addition to MIKE. The problem area lies over on the weak side where Huff has underdelivered. So what difference-makers are out there? Willis could make a huge impact. David Harris has the hitting power and stuffability to be a great MLB but also the 4.57 speed to play strong side. Posluszny is slipping down the charts because of a perceived lack of athleticism (and remnants of his knee rehab) but brings an Urlacher-like intangible. I'll have to admit to a bit of ignorance about Beason and Timmons - if the coaches considered either a lights-out 100% certain game-breaker, they could also be considered, but nothing I've heard would elevate them to the Willis level.

Based on all of this - The top two "W & L influencing" picks on my board would have to be Thomas and Willis with Branch (or possibly Okoye) another option if the coaches felt either was really that good.

 

[Skkorpion]

Good read, Jeff. Lots to process there. I'm bumping this so I can pick up on it tomorrow.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

Depends.

They still seem to be trying to trade Moss. Havent heard anything on it yet but not hearing that anything is dead either still means they are trying IMO.

So, I dont think them taking Calvin is a curve ball at all really.

The closer we get to the draft I think we will start to here taht the Raiders are talking contracts with both Russell and Calvin. Like the Texans were talking contract with Bush and Williams last year.

Last I heard was that Moss and Kiffin have begun talking and Moss's good friend -Jerry Porter- is very excited about the new offense Kiffin wants to install. Moss is saying now he wants to be a Raider

 

[Duckjake]

Which leaves what? Linebacker

Speaking of Linebackers, does anybody know what's wrong with Tommy Polley? The guy always had decent numbers but apparently hurt his shoulder and had to sit out last season with the Saints. For some reason no team seems to want to keep him around.

 

[Scot1]

I think Jeff's analysis is generally good. As for what the Cards WILL do of the four 'blue-chippers' are gone, I'd guess they choose Anderson. He's about on a par with Adams in many books, he could replace Berry if injured, or Okeafor if his performance declines, a pass rush could help the CB situation, and they may be leaning that way. Yes, 10 sacks and a lot of hurries in a year would change the season, especially if one of our DEs is injured again. I can't believe they'd go DT, and Willis is a stretch.

What they SHOULD do, I suppose, is give up and sell the team. No, I guess trading down becomes the best choice, to whatever point they can with good hope of getting Levi Brown (?) or Willis. If they can, since at that point our trade leverage is shot. Or go with Anderson, on the logic above. No good answer waves its hand at me, which is why they don't pay me the big bucks.

 

[Garthshort]

Raiders' Pick

In about TWO weeks we'll know who the Raiders will (probably) select. They will then have almost a week to sign him. And while it could happen, see last year, that agreement can't be reached and at the last minute they go in a different direction, it probably won't happen. It's also possible they might negotiate with Russell and Johnson at the same time and see who will come to terms, and that will be their pick. So then we just have to worry about Detroit, Cleveland and TB, but at least, a day or two before the Draft, we should know who will go to Oakland.

 

[vinnymac]

What everyone is failing to see is the Raiders have only one qb with playing experience on their roster. Walters didn't play that well last season. This the Raiders attempt to add experience to the qb position. If anything this is an indication that The Raiders are going to draft Russell. They can draft Russell and start McCown with no hurry to start Russell.

 

[Skkorpion]

I think Jeff's analysis is generally good. As for what the Cards WILL do of the four 'blue-chippers' are gone, I'd guess they choose Anderson. He's about on a par with Adams in many books, he could replace Berry if injured, or Okeafor if his performance declines, a pass rush could help the CB situation, and they may be leaning that way. Yes, 10 sacks and a lot of hurries in a year would change the season, especially if one of our DEs is injured again. I can't believe they'd go DT, and Willis is a stretch.

What they SHOULD do, I suppose, is give up and sell the team. No, I guess trading down becomes the best choice, to whatever point they can with good hope of getting Levi Brown (?) or Willis. If they can, since at that point our trade leverage is shot. Or go with Anderson, on the logic above. No good answer waves its hand at me, which is why they don't pay me the big bucks.

Eh, I'm with you. Jeff makes sense. Tomorrow, someone else will. The scenario that intrigues me is K9's (which I don't think will happen): what if no QB goes top 5? Then what? My guess is we make a killing on a short trade down but I don't really know.

 

[john h]

Nearly every mock I've seen so far (including 5 in today's USA Today) assume the Raidiz will draft Jamarcus Russell.


I ain't complainin' cause I go through the same mental myself, but we as a group willl just about exhaust every possibility possible by the time the draft arrives. For you math types the number of combinations is almost infinite consdiering 32 teams and 7 rounds. Maybe at lunch time I will do the calculation and attempt to figure out how many there actually are invlolving our beloved. It beomes an infinite number because the possiblity of swaps of multiple draft choices.

I heard the rumor on Sports Center about Oakland perhaps acquiring Josh McCowan. Has this guy really improved so much a team would consider him their starting QB next year and their QB of the future??? This sounds crazy to me. Josh or Russell/Quinn? Duh! This seems like a no brainer to me unless I just totally underestimated what Josh did last year. Maybe the Oakland owner is on weeds or something.

 

[Mr.Dibbs]

The Raiders could probably get Josh for cheap, but not even Al could think that Josh is the future. That said, the Raiders are hard to predict due to their stupidity. If one of the two QBs aren't gone by the end of the 3rd pick and Johnson is gone, I see Tampa's pick being traded.

I want Thomas or AP. Any else and I'm not doing backflips.