What Would Be An Excellent Year For Kyler Murray?

[Stout]

One thing the board seems to be in complete agreement with is that this is "the year" for KM because he has a complimentary run game and the personnel around him for success. So, what would success be for KM individually? I want to know, because I don't feel W-L record will accurately measure his overall success, as the defense will drag us down.

For me, he must:
Break 4,000 yards passing, finally. Rather shocking that he hasn't done so yet.
30 Passing TDs
Only 10 max INTs
500 Rushing Yards
5 Rushing TDs

That is a high bar, but he's supposed to be a transcendent player and a generational talent. Well, he has the perfect storm of support this season and absolutely no excuses. If he's ever going to be that kind of QB for us, now is the time.

Even still, meeting or even exceeding these numbers might mean nothing for the team, more's the pity. KM has been given tons of offensive support, but not much team support. A career year may still only lead to 6 wins, per se. This is why I'm not overly keen to measure KM's year by W-L record.

So what say you? What numbers would you say would mark an excellent year for KM?

 

[BACH]

I think it's extremely difficult to put statistical output on his success in this system. Lamar won MVP with the league's best running game with a 67% comp. %, 3650 yards and 24 TDs, 821 yards rushing and 5TDs rushing.

My best guestimate for Kyler in a top 3 rushing attack and overall top 10 offense:

66+% comp. %
3800 - 4200 yards passing
28+ TDs
14< INTS
400 yards rushing
5 rushing TDs

 

[Garthshort]

I'll just go with staying healthy and playing 17 games. The stats will follow.

 

[Stout]

I'll just go with staying healthy and playing 17 games. The stats will follow.

That's a very low bar for an excellent season

 

[Garthshort]

Believe me, if he stays healthy, his stats will be VG. JMO.

 

[BritCard]

Playing every game

 

[DVontel]

Generational talent? Why do people keep saying this lie here?

Only “generational talents” that received that label(that are QBs) in the past 15 years were Andrew Luck & Trevor Lawrence.

 

[football karma]

the necessary part for having an outstanding season is playing at least 16 games, but it isnt sufficient

i like yard per attempt as an important stat -- its captures both completion percentage and if you are driving the ball down the field enough successfully

it needs to be 7.5 or above. Kylers really good 2021 year it was 7.9. 8 YPA is top 5 in the league territory. In his terrible 2022 year it was 6.1. Thats bottom 10.

his TD to Int ratio needs to be at least 2.5 to 1. 3 to 1 is top tier.

FWIW: for his career, Kyler has a YPA of 7.0 and a TD/INT ratio of 2 to 1. Thats game manager territory for QBs --

 

[cardncubfan]

Generational talent? Why do people keep saying this lie here?

Only “generational talents” that received that label(that are QBs) in the past 15 years were Andrew Luck & Trevor Lawrence.

Would you rather have Lawrence over Kyler? Honest question.

 

[Garthshort]

1. Great in HS.
2. Great in college (Heisman).
3. 1st round draft pick in baseball.
4. 1st overall pick in FB.

Sounds generational to me.

 

[cardncubfan]

Would you rather have Lawrence over Kyler? Honest question.

Same question @Chopper0080 .

 

[BritCard]

Would you rather have Lawrence over Kyler? Honest question.

Yes? I don't feel like there's that much between them.

While Lawrence hasn't been what was hoped (yet) neither has Kyler. Lawrence has played all but one game over 3 years. He has two 4000+ yard seasons. He only has one losing season. Statistically there's not that much between them as passers.

I have a general preference for traditional tall QB's so if I had to choose I'd go with the younger Lawrence who stays healthier. That's nothing against Kyler, but Kyler hasn't exactly been fire so far.

 

[PACardsFan]

Many factors will go into this team being successful in 2024, but it has to start with Kyler staying healthy. If healthy, the offensive side of the ball will impress. And that means Murray will impress.

 

[ajcardfan]

10+ wins and a playoff game and a playoff win. The numbers? I don't really care. If that actually happens I suppose they would be pretty good.

 

[BirdGangThing]

idk but saw hernandez on tv and he's never seen this murray - completely locked in

 

[kerouac9]

A great season looks a lot like Deshaun Watson’s 2020, passing for 4800 yards/33 TDs/7 INTs. That team went 4-12.

A good season looks a lot like Justin Herbert’s rookie year: 4300/31/10.

 

[CardNots]

16 starts with resting for game 17 before Kyler’s second playoff game of his career.

 

[Yuma]

One playoff win. Stats be damned.

 

[Outerlimits]

Very curious to see his deep passing accuracy. For whatever reason, it has become a weakness overall in recent history vs early in his career.

Agree with Stout that I'm not grading his performance on W-L record because I think the ceiling this year is probably 9 wins.

 

[oaken1]

win a clinching game. Decisively

 

[PACardsFan]

Really hard to project numbers as it pertains to Murray. What we saw the last 8 games last year with Murray was with very little impact from the WR room. That’s why losing Zay Jones even for just 5 games does hurt this team. MHJ is a huge addition, and Wilson, if healthy, looks extremely impressive. Dortch will be effective in the slot, and McBride is a top 3 TE in the league. How much time does Conner miss? And when he’s out, does Benson turn into a star overnight in this offense? I think the key to this offense is the OL. How does Paris do moving to the left side? Is he just ok, or does his game move to the next level? The interior almost has to be better than last year, but how much better? And no one can predict what Jonah Williams will be like on the right side. With a full offseason to learn this offense completely, I personally expect Murray to be exceptional. But that’s me. I have a significant hunk of change coming my way if some of my bets come through:
-Cardinals over 6.5 wins
- Cardinals making the playoffs
-Cardinals winning the NFCW
- Cardinals winning the NFC Championship
-Cardinals winning the SB
-Murray winning MVP
-Murray exceeding 4000 yards passing
-Murray exceeding 30 total touchdowns

Obviously, I don’t expect to win all those bets, but winning just a couple puts some coin in my pocket lol.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Stay healthy and lead the team to the playoffs would be a very successful season.

 

[Totally_Red]

One playoff win. Stats be damned.

Yup. A good year is 9 wins and just missing the playoffs. Anything less is meh.

 

[GatorAZ]

Would you rather have Lawrence over Kyler? Honest question.

The fact that they’re close in caliber of QB’s despite a 7” height difference is telling IMO.

 

[WisconsinCard]

His stats don't matter much to me. I mean if we're getting hammered every game he could pad his stats in every game and statistically look good on paper. I need to see him lead us to more wins, stats be damned.