What's the Rationale for Drafting Te'o?

[Southpaw]

ILB is over valued in the 1st round, let alone #8 pick overall.

Like Keuchly was top ILB last year and went #9. Although he is extremely productive , the "experts" will suggest he was selected too high. Patrick Willis is another top 10 ILB, so there are exceptions.

In this "weak" draft someone has to be drafted and he doesn't look like bust material.

I suspect the Cards can get BPA at another position of need.

 

[Chopper0080]

If it's a pure value proposition, I would probably look for a partner to trade down with. If I were forced to exercise the pick, and the Utah DL was off the board, then I would probably take Warmack, whom I think is a better prospect than DeCastro is.

Honestly, as I said, if Geno Smith is on the board, I'd take him. I think that Barkley will be on the board, and the Cards would take him if he interviews well and wants to play here. I understand that everyone wants the next Drew Brees. He's not walking through that door. But even in this offense with our current personnel, a guy like Mark Sanchez would IMO have us at .500. And I've considerably soured on Sanchez since listing him as a Top 10 QB at the beginning of the year.

If the option were T'eo or the 3rd OT, I'd trade down at a discount (like a 3rd or a 2014 2nd).

If we traded down from 6 to 10, we could get Warmack or Cooper and an additional 3rd rounder? I'd be all in on that.

This is where I have gravitated towards. I love both Warmack and Cooper, and think they will have a greater impact on this team than other players available. I like Te'o and would love to be in a position where we could justify drafting him other than because he is a low risk player, but facts are our needs at QB, OG and OLB are greater priorities at this point.

If we didn't trade any picks and had to draft where we sit right now, my draft goes...

1-Chance Warmack-OG-Alabama-6'3 320
2-Ryan Nassib-QB-Syracuse-6'2 228
3-Stepfan Taylor-RB-Stanford-5'11 215
4-Quanterus Smith-OLB-West Kentucky-6'5 249
5-Dion Simms-TE-Michigan State-6'5 285
6-Kiko Alonso-ILB-Oregon-6'3 242
7-Dave Krugar-DE-Utah-6'5 300

There are other players I like better in certain spots, but a draft of this caliber adds a physical interior blocker, an experienced college QB, a physical inside runner w/ pass blocking experience, a rush specialist, a physical TE, a nickel LB and a developmental 3-4 DE.

 

[Russ Smith]

If it's a pure value proposition, I would probably look for a partner to trade down with. If I were forced to exercise the pick, and the Utah DL was off the board, then I would probably take Warmack, whom I think is a better prospect than DeCastro is.

Honestly, as I said, if Geno Smith is on the board, I'd take him. I think that Barkley will be on the board, and the Cards would take him if he interviews well and wants to play here. I understand that everyone wants the next Drew Brees. He's not walking through that door. But even in this offense with our current personnel, a guy like Mark Sanchez would IMO have us at .500. And I've considerably soured on Sanchez since listing him as a Top 10 QB at the beginning of the year.

If the option were T'eo or the 3rd OT, I'd trade down at a discount (like a 3rd or a 2014 2nd).

If we traded down from 6 to 10, we could get Warmack or Cooper and an additional 3rd rounder? I'd be all in on that.

My concern with warmack is he has a bad body. Maybe he gets in better shape in the NFL but maybe he doesn't. DeCastro is maybe a lower ceiling guy less athletic, but he's lower risk because he's always in shape. What I loved the most about DeCastro was his mean streak, he doesn't just block guys with good technique, he puts them on their back and loves doing it.

I don't see that with Warmack but he is a terrific player.

I'd like to move down too but you get the same issue, who are you moving down for?

I REALLY don't want Barkley, mediocre senior year, not going to get much better. He's a nice kid, he's smart, I just don't see a ton of upside.

Haven't seen Geno Smith enough to have an opinion.

 

[kerouac9]

It's the classic "best player available" buffoonery.

That philosophy is for good teams, not teams with 9 game losing streaks because of a cancerous offense

Actually, BPA makes sense for good teams, and really bad teams looking for a cornerstone player to build around. If you're a team who thinks you have a core in place and want to complete a roster, it makes no sense whatsoever.

Drafting Michael Floyd is a great example of this. We had three perfectly solid WRs under contract plus a developing receiving TE. Even if Floyd was clearly the best player available, was he going to have more impact than a slightly less talented OLB? Of course not.

Just imagine another Daryl Washington

Imagining it, and it's still not making sense. Daryl Washington gets washed out still in the run game--PFF wrote about it last week. You need a complementary piece to Daryl Washington, not a redundant one.

It's not like "Imagine another Patrick Peterson" or "imagine another Calais Campbell." Those guys play on opposite sides of the field, and complement one another. It's more like "imagine another Adrian Wilson." We did that with Kerry Rhodes, and it made them BOTH worse, because no one was next to them to highlight their redundant skill sets.

 

[kerouac9]

My concern with warmack is he has a bad body. Maybe he gets in better shape in the NFL but maybe he doesn't. DeCastro is maybe a lower ceiling guy less athletic, but he's lower risk because he's always in shape. What I loved the most about DeCastro was his mean streak, he doesn't just block guys with good technique, he puts them on their back and loves doing it.

I don't see that with Warmack but he is a terrific player.

I'd like to move down too but you get the same issue, who are you moving down for?

I REALLY don't want Barkley, mediocre senior year, not going to get much better. He's a nice kid, he's smart, I just don't see a ton of upside.

Haven't seen Geno Smith enough to have an opinion.

I think that DeCastro would have been a great guard for Russ Grimm's system. I don't think that Russ Grimm will be back in 2013. In a different system, it's possible that Chance Warmack will be even better.

If you move down, you get more value for a guard, either Warmack or Cooper, or you take one of the number of really intriguing OLB prospects. Our roster is thin enough at positions besides cornerback and maybe WR that any mid-round pick will upgrade somewhere important.

I'm not thrilled with Chopper's fan to trade down twice into the late-mid first round, but if we ended up with Jonathan Cooper at 19 and able to pick up OLB, RB, QB, and ILB in the middle rounds, I'd find a way to live with it.

 

[thephoenixson28]

Actually, BPA makes sense for good teams, and really bad teams looking for a cornerstone player to build around. If you're a team who thinks you have a core in place and want to complete a roster, it makes no sense whatsoever.

Drafting Michael Floyd is a great example of this. We had three perfectly solid WRs under contract plus a developing receiving TE. Even if Floyd was clearly the best player available, was he going to have more impact than a slightly less talented OLB? Of course not.



Imagining it, and it's still not making sense. Daryl Washington gets washed out still in the run game--PFF wrote about it last week. You need a complementary piece to Daryl Washington, not a redundant one.

It's not like "Imagine another Patrick Peterson" or "imagine another Calais Campbell." Those guys play on opposite sides of the field, and complement one another. It's more like "imagine another Adrian Wilson." We did that with Kerry Rhodes, and it made them BOTH worse, because no one was next to them to highlight their redundant skill sets.

But he is bigger than Washington. Manti Te'o is 255 pounds and runs a 4.7 40 yard dash.

 

[Chopper0080]

My concern with warmack is he has a bad body. Maybe he gets in better shape in the NFL but maybe he doesn't. DeCastro is maybe a lower ceiling guy less athletic, but he's lower risk because he's always in shape. What I loved the most about DeCastro was his mean streak, he doesn't just block guys with good technique, he puts them on their back and loves doing it.

I don't see that with Warmack but he is a terrific player.

I'd like to move down too but you get the same issue, who are you moving down for?

I REALLY don't want Barkley, mediocre senior year, not going to get much better. He's a nice kid, he's smart, I just don't see a ton of upside.

Haven't seen Geno Smith enough to have an opinion.

I agree with having a bit of the Andre Smith worry with Warmack, but he really is a good player. What has stood out to me most is that he has been able to shine despite playing on a very good offensive line. I think he has the drive to be good and once he gets to the NFL he will work harder to stand out as well. That being said, I view Jonathan Cooper and him very close in terms of talent which is why I would trade down 5-8 picks. One should still be available and we would be able to add another top 100 pick.

 

[kerouac9]

But he is bigger than Washington. Manti Te'o is 255 pounds and runs a 4.7 40 yard dash.

So is he another Daryl Washington, or not? It's your comparison. If he's just going to be an inside linebacker who takes on a blocker so that Washington can flow to the ball, it makes even less sense to spend a valuable Top 10 pick on a player who isn't going to make big plays.

We can save money and draft capital by signing a veteran linebacker for equivalent money and use the draft pick to take an impact player on either the OL or OLB.

I get the statistical sensitivity about the inability to stop the run defensively. But we're not losing games because we're being run to death. We're being run to death because teams can't really pass on us, and once we're down 6 points teams are playing against the clock instead of against the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cards are T18th in defensive yards per carry. Certainly can be improved upon, but not a dire need. If our OLBs were more effective pass rushers, we could take Paris Lenon off the field and keep Dan Williams or David Carter on so we're not giving up so much yardage against passing personnel.

 

[az jam]

Honestly, as I said, if Geno Smith is on the board, I'd take him. I think that Barkley will be on the board, and the Cards would take him if he interviews well and wants to play here.

I really think the Cards will (must?) go qb with their first round pick and if Smith is gone they will go Barkley. Tyler Wilson could move up if he does well at the Senior Bowl and Combine.
The Cards must address the QB situation or lose ticket sales and a large part of their fan base. Michael Bidwill is not stupid. He knows that there is a serious problem and it all starts with the QB position. (and GM, HC, OC, OL coach and offense)

 

[kerouac9]

I agree with having a bit of the Andre Smith worry with Warmack, but he really is a good player. What has stood out to me most is that he has been able to shine despite playing on a very good offensive line. I think he has the drive to be good and once he gets to the NFL he will work harder to stand out as well. That being said, I view Jonathan Cooper and him very close in terms of talent which is why I would trade down 5-8 picks. One should still be available and we would be able to add another top 100 pick.

It's PFF, so take it for what it's worth, but they believe (and Ben Muth supported) that Andre Smith has become a Pro Bowl (and possible All-Pro) type of player now. He struggled last night against Brandon Graham, but from what I've heard he's been a really good player.

 

[JeffGollin]

Rationale: BPA plus leadership intangibles.

The argument that BPA hasn't worked for us because we lost 9 straight is specious - One reason why we're in the predicament we're in now can just as logically be traced to passing on BPA Adrian Peterson and reaching for need when we drafted Levi Brown.

Regarding Te'o, there is always the possibility that some of us are falling for the media hype and that he's really not that good. (That's why we have bowl games, all star games and pre-draft research - we'll all have a better handle on Manti and other prospects as we get closer to Draft Day).

 

[Russ Smith]

So is he another Daryl Washington, or not? It's your comparison. If he's just going to be an inside linebacker who takes on a blocker so that Washington can flow to the ball, it makes even less sense to spend a valuable Top 10 pick on a player who isn't going to make big plays.

We can save money and draft capital by signing a veteran linebacker for equivalent money and use the draft pick to take an impact player on either the OL or OLB.

I get the statistical sensitivity about the inability to stop the run defensively. But we're not losing games because we're being run to death. We're being run to death because teams can't really pass on us, and once we're down 6 points teams are playing against the clock instead of against the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cards are T18th in defensive yards per carry. Certainly can be improved upon, but not a dire need. If our OLBs were more effective pass rushers, we could take Paris Lenon off the field and keep Dan Williams or David Carter on so we're not giving up so much yardage against passing personnel.

Do you want Moore or Jones?

My problem with Jones as I've said before is unless the USC doctors were wrong, he has spinal Stenosis. He may be a great player but he's essentially one wrong hit from retirement right now if he has spinal stenosis. I think he's one of the fascinating stories of the draft if he does have that condition where does he get drafted?

Damontre Moore is very good too, I'd be quite happy to get him, just get the feeling it's possible he'll be off the board. I kind of have the suspicion he'll go before Jones because of the health question.

 

[kerouac9]

Do you want Moore or Jones?

My problem with Jones as I've said before is unless the USC doctors were wrong, he has spinal Stenosis. He may be a great player but he's essentially one wrong hit from retirement right now if he has spinal stenosis. I think he's one of the fascinating stories of the draft if he does have that condition where does he get drafted?

Damontre Moore is very good too, I'd be quite happy to get him, just get the feeling it's possible he'll be off the board. I kind of have the suspicion he'll go before Jones because of the health question.

I'd take Moore, mos def. I'm really intrigued to find out more about him through the pre-draft process.

You've convinced me that Jones might be a stay-away. Didn't Gronkowski have the same spinal stenosis? That would be the argument, and I totally get it. It's always in the back of my mind that while it would be great to get more than a first contract from these guys, you can't draft a player and assume that he's going to play for you for 8 or 10 or 12 years.

If I'm drafting for BPA at need areas, I'm not looking at ILB. I'm looking at OLB (when was the last time Sam Acho made a play? I'm sure he's doing his job and isn't a featured player, but sometimes above-average players actually make some plays), QB, OG, and S.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Here is something for people to consider. Te'o looks the part of a great future NFL player but at this moment the top two tackles are considered pretty damn good too. I would hardly call it a reach and that is what you want to avoid. A reach is drafting a player which does not belong on the talent level where he is drafted. At this point, the tackles are seen very highly. If the grades hold on a player like Joekel, nobody would say we just reached for a player...instead, we were fortunate to draft a great player at a position of need. I think we are in good shape though, because guard seems to be the real problem now in my opinion and we can get a good one in round two. This for me means we can go QB, IF we can come to the conclusion that he can be an extended starter, and QB is such an important position that grabbing a good QB in round one (and elite does not have to be the benchmark) would never be called a reach if the guy works out. By another viewpoint, we do not have to settle for Potter (who has shown so far to be serviceable) or Levi when a great tackle could be had too.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

ILB is not a position of need. We have Daryl Washington. What makes Mante Te'o a better prospect than Rolando McClain or Aaron Curry? ILBs just don't have that much value or impact.

It's interesting to me that the guy who bangs on the front office for signing Stewart Bradley is thrilled at the idea of paying far more for an unproven prospect like Manti Te'o.

I'd rather do what the Jets did three or four years ago--take an incomplete quarterback prospect that you can work with and give some support to your defense who's ready to win now.

You're assuming Te'o is going to be Stewart Bradley bad. Just because McClain has had issues and Curry was a bust doesn't mean Te'o will. What if he becomes a Willis-type player? Anybody who thinks the Cards don't need to upgrade ILB hasn't been watching the defense at all.

I think you can get a QB in round 2 who is just as likely to be successful as the guy the Cards would take early. Taking Te'o gives you the chance to upgrade two positions of need.

Also, you seemed to miss where I said I was okay with Joeckle or Moore type player as well.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'd take Moore, mos def. I'm really intrigued to find out more about him through the pre-draft process.

You've convinced me that Jones might be a stay-away. Didn't Gronkowski have the same spinal stenosis? That would be the argument, and I totally get it. It's always in the back of my mind that while it would be great to get more than a first contract from these guys, you can't draft a player and assume that he's going to play for you for 8 or 10 or 12 years.

If I'm drafting for BPA at need areas, I'm not looking at ILB. I'm looking at OLB (when was the last time Sam Acho made a play? I'm sure he's doing his job and isn't a featured player, but sometimes above-average players actually make some plays), QB, OG, and S.

Acho makes plays my issue with him this year is the losing outside contain that seems to happen at least once a week for a big run play. But I suspect that's similar PP's punt return problem, guy trying to make big plays and instead making mistakes.

For me if you said I'll give you a million dollars if you tell me today who will be the best player right away from the draft, Te'O would be very high on the list of names I'd consider. There's very little risk with him that I'm aware of. he's big enough, he's fast enough, no apparent medical risks, everyone says he's a terrific kid etc.

The odds are that there are several kids who will wind up better but they're harder to be sure about.

I would be fine with Moore, fine with the right tackle, but if we're picking 8th and Manti is the best player on the board and there's no good trade down, I'd sure hope we take him.

When the BPA is also at a position where have an issue, it makes it easier. With Floyd we didn't need a WR, and I still hugely dispute he was actually the BPA.

 

[kerouac9]

You're assuming Te'o is going to be Stewart Bradley bad. Just because McClain has had issues and Curry was a bust doesn't mean Te'o will. What if he becomes a Willis-type player? Anybody who thinks the Cards don't need to upgrade ILB hasn't been watching the defense at all.

I think you can get a QB in round 2 who is just as likely to be successful as the guy the Cards would take early. Taking Te'o gives you the chance to upgrade two positions of need.

Also, you seemed to miss where I said I was okay with Joeckle or Moore type player as well.

I've made the argument about the run defense. And I've made the argument about going other directions to upgrade ILB as cheaply with the potential to upgrade three positions instead of two.

You could say "What if he becomes a Hall of Famer" about any potential top draft pick. What if Michael Floyd becomes the next Tim Brown? That pick doesn't look dumb then.

But what if Te'o doesn't become Patrick Willis but instead is Clay Matthews--who FootballOutsiders calls the best interior linebacker who doesn't rush the quarterback. Is that going to shave 7 points per game off our production?

If we drafted an offensive guard in the first and a quarterback in the second, we're still upgrading at two positions.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I've made the argument about the run defense. And I've made the argument about going other directions to upgrade ILB as cheaply with the potential to upgrade three positions instead of two.

You could say "What if he becomes a Hall of Famer" about any potential top draft pick. What if Michael Floyd becomes the next Tim Brown? That pick doesn't look dumb then.

But what if Te'o doesn't become Patrick Wilson but instead is Clay Matthews--who FootballOutsiders calls the best interior linebacker who doesn't rush the quarterback. Is that going to shave 7 points per game off our production?

If we drafted an offensive guard in the first and a quarterback in the second, we're still upgrading at two positions.

That argument is pretty ridiculous. Is any player going to add/subtract 7 points other than a legit, top rate QB? NO. Is a guard going to add 7 points to the offense, even if they drafted the next John Hannah?

There was an article after the Seattle game that had Marshawn Lynch only being touched on a very small % of the yards he gained.

I agree there are cheaper alternatives. There are cheaper aletrnatives at every position. I want the best player at a position of need, and ILB is a need. Also, OG is not a very valued position either.

 

[kerouac9]

That argument is pretty ridiculous. Is any player going to add/subtract 7 points other than a legit, top rate QB? NO. Is a guard going to add 7 points to the offense, even if they drafted the next John Hannah?

There was an article after the Seattle game that had Marshawn Lynch only being touched on a very small % of the yards he gained.

I agree there are cheaper alternatives. There are cheaper aletrnatives at every position. I want the best player at a position of need, and ILB is a need. Also, OG is not a very valued position either.

Would upgrading simply to a League-average QB add 7 points per game to our offensive production? Absolutely. Without question. The idea that we need a "legit, top-rate QB" to contend for the playoffs is completely inane.

Cards offensive Production with Kevin Kolb starting: 18 ppg.
Cards offensive Production with non-Kolb starting: 12 ppg.

So even with Kevin Kolb--whom I consider a below-average NFL starter even when healthy--the upgrade (without subbing in Potter for Batiste) is 6 ppg (and that second number is more likely to get lower than higher, since I included the 20 points from the Seattle game, and we'll face some pretty good defenses in the last 3 weeks of the year).

If the argument that the offense is the problem--and it clearly is--than wouldn't upgrading from Adam Snyder or Daryn Colledge to a top guard prospect add a half-point per game, plus help the defense by allowing better RB production (remember that running production is far more correlated to line performance than individual back)? It's difficult to say "no."

Clearly the Seattle game is an outlier to the production and performance of the defense. As I said, even with the Seattle game included, the run defense remains respectable.

 

[Duckjake]

Over 170 yards allowed each of the last 3 games is not respectable.

 

[1DS]

This is not to say that Teo is #1 on my board but if we were to take him I'd be happy about it. The reason... Leadership. With AW and DD aging and likely out the door soon and with Fitz being uber talented but by no means a vocal leader, throw position out the window, we need a leader. Who on this team, post AW and DD could be seen as a leader?

The new defensive leaders will be Washington and Peterson.

I agree with K9, it's not the time for us to burn a top 10 pick on ILB. We are crippled offensively, we need a QB or T.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Patrick Willis along with Novarro Bowman seems to make a huge diffence...I know Bowman was taken later, but just think of Wash and Teo for the next 7 to 10 years together.

 

[kerouac9]

Patrick Willis along with Novarro Bowman seems to make a huge diffence...I know Bowman was taken later, but just think of Wash and Teo for the next 7 to 10 years together.

As big a difference as Aldon Smith and Carlos Rogers? Lots of moving pieces on that defense, and lots of talent around both of those guys.

 

[Chopper0080]

I'd take Moore, mos def. I'm really intrigued to find out more about him through the pre-draft process.

You've convinced me that Jones might be a stay-away. Didn't Gronkowski have the same spinal stenosis? That would be the argument, and I totally get it. It's always in the back of my mind that while it would be great to get more than a first contract from these guys, you can't draft a player and assume that he's going to play for you for 8 or 10 or 12 years.

If I'm drafting for BPA at need areas, I'm not looking at ILB. I'm looking at OLB (when was the last time Sam Acho made a play? I'm sure he's doing his job and isn't a featured player, but sometimes above-average players actually make some plays), QB, OG, and S.

Demontre Moore comes with question marks as well though. He was a preseason 3rd rounder when he was viewed as a hybrid OLB type. However this season, his breakout one, has been while he has been moved exclusively to DE when in 2011 he played OLB. The thought behind the switch previously was he would have to switch because of his size, but now scouts are wondering if he won;t be more successful playing as an undersized DE rather than going back to OLB, a position he struggled with and didn't look as natural playing.

My draft comes down to QB/OG or OG/QB in the first two rounds unless something spectacular happens. I would prefer to draft a top OLB/DE hybrid type, but I don't think we will have that option. Because of this, I have been really concentrating on 3rd to 6th round rush players. I had found four that I really liked the looks of but that number might be dwindling as Ezekiel Ansah is probably a borderline 1st rounder right now. The other three are Khalil Mack from Buffalo, Quanterus Smith from Western Kentucky and Travis Long from Washington St. Mack is a TFL monster, but is a Jr. and has sent his paperwork in to get his pre-draft grade and may not come out. Quanterus Smith is a sack master, but is also very raw. He is a project but his strength is his pass rush skills so that makes him worth a 3rd or 4th in my book. Long doesn't look like a special athlete but he seems to create production despite that. I am interested to see if he is worth a late round flier when he does his post season workouts.

 

[Chopper0080]

It's PFF, so take it for what it's worth, but they believe (and Ben Muth supported) that Andre Smith has become a Pro Bowl (and possible All-Pro) type of player now. He struggled last night against Brandon Graham, but from what I've heard he's been a really good player.

I meant the sloppy body, questionable work ethic comparison. Andre Smith has developed into a solid RT, but he had work ethic questions because of his fattiness. I could see Warmack generating some of those same concerns.