Why David Johnson was so 'awful' last year - and why he'll be great again

[Stout]

For the bolded part.. Stout did you know that, the last couple of years, NFL coaches have been visiting Riley in Norman, to pick his brain about offensive concepts?

Sure. It has happened before and will happen again with many coaches. There's a difference between picking someone's brain for offensive concepts and completely installing your college offense in the pros. Which I realize we aren't doing--KK's supposedly cherry-picking what he wants to implement--but it's far from certain it will translate, let alone that KK will be a good pro HC. Let's not pretend this isn't a massive, massive risk! The payoff can be great, potentially, but so can the failure.

I really don't see a middle ground to this series of decisions. About the closest I see to a middle ground is that we're still awful this year, but that we see improvement/potential

 

[Krangodnzr]

Sure. It has happened before and will happen again with many coaches. There's a difference between picking someone's brain for offensive concepts and completely installing your college offense in the pros. Which I realize we aren't doing--KK's supposedly cherry-picking what he wants to implement--but it's far from certain it will translate, let alone that KK will be a good pro HC. Let's not pretend this isn't a massive, massive risk! The payoff can be great, potentially, but so can the failure.

I really don't see a middle ground to this series of decisions. About the closest I see to a middle ground is that we're still awful this year, but that we see improvement/potential

It isn't far from certain Stout. Concepts like mesh (the bread and butter of the Air Raid) have been used for years to good effect in the NFL.

What would have worried me would have been if Kingsbury had brought a bunch of college assistants or inexperienced NFL assistants in. He brought Tom Freaking Clements in! Sean Kugler! James Saxon! David Raih. All of those guys have been extremely successful everywhere they've been.

The Cardinals have flat out said that these guys are helping Kingsbury adapt (cherry pick? That terms makes it sound so haphazard) his offense to the NFL. This is a methodical approach.

And Kingsbury got the QB hes wanted for years. He got a guy who has the chance to stress defenses like no other QB in the league these days. I'm not saying he will so dont get yer panties in a bundle, but there is a chance.

I'm the most worried about the offensive line holding up because of the injury history of multiple players on the line.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yep, that's where the disconnect is. I won't say desperate, but more misguided. I can definitely see what you see, that they're trying to replicate OU's offense, and that's what scares me. It's a COLLEGE offense. Teams don't do well in the NFL running college offenses, because it's the pros and NOT college. It just doesn't translate. You said it was championship-worthy...IN COLLEGE.

We joke a lot about Arians and "No risk it, no biscuit," but boy, is this ever bigger than any Arians risk!

This is the same thing people were saying about spread players like Watson and Air Raid players like Mahomes and Goff a few years ago.

Like I said, Air Raid concepts are ALREADY being run by NFL teams last year.

Your view is completely devoid of what's actually going on down at Warner and Hardy. The practice field is going to be an experimental laboratory of testing what concepts work and what doesnt. And then you have guys like Kugler (great understanding of NFL power run game) and Clements (great understanding if traditional passing concepts) helping to adapt the Air Raid to the K Raid.

Is it risky? Yes it is. They could have followed the lead of the Dolphins who hired Wilks part deaux. Or the Jets who hired a known NFL failure. But instead they went for the unconventional. The Cardinals last unconventional hire worked pretty well. Arians was universally panned and pretty much everyone said it was a horrible hire.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

@Stout.. I think you've answered your own question. K2 won't try to install the OU offense, but he will instead develop a scheme that uses it's key concepts, knowing he's has the perfect player to implement them.

Last word from me on this subject, I think you're right in that, 30 years ago, Detroit's attempt to implement UH's "Run and Shoot" was doomed to failure. However, college offenses have evolved since then, and the college game has been slowly infiltrating the pro game for several years now.


Also, I really like Krang's use of the word "methodical" in regards to the overhaul. Bidwill and Keim have an exciting plan, and they are carefully, and thoughtfully, implementing it, step by step. Like pieces of a puzzle being put together.

That's what's so cool about this process. We can see everything coming together right before our eyes.

 

[Solar7]

Is it risky? Yes it is. They could have followed the lead of the Dolphins who hired Wilks part deaux. Or the Jets who hired a known NFL failure. But instead they went for the unconventional. The Cardinals last unconventional hire worked pretty well. Arians was universally panned and pretty much everyone said it was a horrible hire.

What? Not a single person said this.

He was the reigning Head Coach of the Year.

I'll stay out of the rest of the argument for the most part, but none of us really have insight into what's happening behind the scenes when it comes to developing this offense. Fact of the matter is, Kliff doesn't know a lot of these guys, and not only has to build personal and professional cohesion with them, but understand that he has the final say despite any of these suggestions.

 

[Krangodnzr]

What? Not a single person said this.

He was the reigning Head Coach of the Year.

I'll stay out of the rest of the argument for the most part, but none of us really have insight into what's happening behind the scenes when it comes to developing this offense. Fact of the matter is, Kliff doesn't know a lot of these guys, and not only has to build personal and professional cohesion with them, but understand that he has the final say despite any of these suggestions.

LOTS of people panned the hiring of Bruce Arians.

You look for every little negative. It's amazing.

 

[kerouac9]

This is the same thing people were saying about spread players like Watson and Air Raid players like Mahomes and Goff a few years ago.

Like I said, Air Raid concepts are ALREADY being run by NFL teams last year.

Your view is completely devoid of what's actually going on down at Warner and Hardy. The practice field is going to be an experimental laboratory of testing what concepts work and what doesnt. And then you have guys like Kugler (great understanding of NFL power run game) and Clements (great understanding if traditional passing concepts) helping to adapt the Air Raid to the K Raid.

Is it risky? Yes it is. They could have followed the lead of the Dolphins who hired Wilks part deaux. Or the Jets who hired a known NFL failure. But instead they went for the unconventional. The Cardinals last unconventional hire worked pretty well. Arians was universally panned and pretty much everyone said it was a horrible hire.

So... The Air Raid concepts are already being run in the NFL, but also the coaching staff is helping to adapt the Air Raid. Huh.

I think the biggest challenge is going to be adapting to the complexity and speed of the NFL game. The Air Raid works because college defenses that aren't Alabama and Clemson can't have 11 NFL players on the field, so you create opportunities to isolate weaker talents. That doesn't happen in the NFL, because every team has 20+ NFL caliber defenders.

We're guessing that Kingsbury will have the humility to listen to the pro coaches he didn't know and adapt his system. The biggest challenge that I have inferred is that Kingsbury didn't have a real playbook at Texas Tech, and by all accounts doesn't have a very complicated playbook with the Cards today.

Conceptually, NFL offensive playbooks are complicated because they have to be — each play is designed to accommodate whatever the defense puts up against it. A lot of Air Raid concepts are focused on one side of the field, which can be a problem when you have better NFL players.

@Stout.. I think you've answered your own question. K2 won't try to install the OU offense, but he will instead develop a scheme that uses it's key concepts, knowing he's has the perfect player to implement them.

Last word from me on this subject, I think you're right in that, 30 years ago, Detroit's attempt to implement UH's "Run and Shoot" was doomed to failure. However, college offenses have evolved since then, and the college game has been slowly infiltrating the pro game for several years now.


Also, I really like Krang's use of the word "methodical" in regards to the overhaul. Bidwill and Keim have an exciting plan, and they are carefully, and thoughtfully, implementing it, step by step. Like pieces of a puzzle being put together.

That's what's so cool about this process. We can see everything coming together right before our eyes.

Yikes, I hope so.

I'm not sure what evidence there is that Bidwill, Keim and Kingsbury "are carefully, and thoughtfully, implementing [a plan], step by step." At least, no more or less so than the Cards have done each offseason in recent memory.

IMO, they basically shot-gunned the WR position this offseason in the same way they did last offseason. After Fitz, are there more than 100 NFL receptions in the receiving room?

Here's what gives me hope: I didn't remember this, but Chip Kelly went 20-12 in his first two season in Philly. Is offense was 3rd in points in 2014 with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez started a combined 15 games.

Now, Kelly's offense is different because it's not pass-oriented. It's based on creating mismatches up front in the run game. LeSean McCoy absolutely burned down the league in those two years. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Kinsbury try and protect the offensive line by letting Kyler out the back door on some of these run plays where teams are overloaded on DJ's side of the ball.

 

[kerouac9]

LOTS of people panned the hiring of Bruce Arians.

You look for every little negative. It's amazing.

I'll vouch for this. I HATED the Arians signing and felt like we had to sweep up the garbage that the rest of the league didn't want. Even after his first season, I thought that BA was an arrogant guy who wasn't backing up his big talk and was winning with Whis's players.

I was wrong about that.

 

[Solar7]

LOTS of people panned the hiring of Bruce Arians.

You look for every little negative. It's amazing.

How is that me looking at the negative? Literally... the guy was just coach of the year. That was a tremendous positive.

That scenario and this year's have very little in common - Arians coached in the NFL longer than I've been alive. KK hasn't once.

Edit - Also, please don't take that last comment as a negative, I'm just saying the scenarios are wildly different and not an apt comparison.

 

[Krangodnzr]

So... The Air Raid concepts are already being run in the NFL, but also the coaching staff is helping to adapt the Air Raid. Huh.

I think the biggest challenge is going to be adapting to the complexity and speed of the NFL game. The Air Raid works because college defenses that aren't Alabama and Clemson can't have 11 NFL players on the field, so you create opportunities to isolate weaker talents. That doesn't happen in the NFL, because every team has 20+ NFL caliber defenders.

We're guessing that Kingsbury will have the humility to listen to the pro coaches he didn't know and adapt his system. The biggest challenge that I have inferred is that Kingsbury didn't have a real playbook at Texas Tech, and by all accounts doesn't have a very complicated playbook with the Cards today.

Conceptually, NFL offensive playbooks are complicated because they have to be — each play is designed to accommodate whatever the defense puts up against it. A lot of Air Raid concepts are focused on one side of the field, which can be a problem when you have better NFL players.



Yikes, I hope so.

I'm not sure what evidence there is that Bidwill, Keim and Kingsbury "are carefully, and thoughtfully, implementing [a plan], step by step." At least, no more or less so than the Cards have done each offseason in recent memory.

IMO, they basically shot-gunned the WR position this offseason in the same way they did last offseason. After Fitz, are there more than 100 NFL receptions in the receiving room?

Here's what gives me hope: I didn't remember this, but Chip Kelly went 20-12 in his first two season in Philly. Is offense was 3rd in points in 2014 with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez started a combined 15 games.

Now, Kelly's offense is different because it's not pass-oriented. It's based on creating mismatches up front in the run game. LeSean McCoy absolutely burned down the league in those two years. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Kinsbury try and protect the offensive line by letting Kyler out the back door on some of these run plays where teams are overloaded on DJ's side of the ball.

Concepts, but no one runs more that a few plays here and there. I think once everything is settled, you

From what I've read/heard, to someone uninitiated on how the Air Raid works, it appears to be a simple offense. There isn't a ton of plays, but the play itself changes as the defense reacts. If you move a linebacker into the middle of the field to disrupt mesh, then on of the receivers breaks off his route and cuts up field to an open area.

Basically, run to open grass. This relies on the receiver and QB to know how to react to different situations while the play itself unfolds. The defense only has a few ways it can react in any situation, so this puts tremendous stress on the defense. Or at least this has been my amateur understanding of the offense to this point.

Zone defenses don't work too well against the Air Raid because receivers are looking for all the soft spots and this forces mismatches since receivers are going to change their route as the play dictates. This is very different than spread concepts and is actually quite sophisticated, but also quite simple at the same time.

Chip Kelly, like you said, runs more run based concepts. The problem with Kelly's offense is that it basically only runs a few plays out of different formations and requires players to out execute other players. That's not going to work too well in the NFL for long.

 

[Krangodnzr]

How is that me looking at the negative? Literally... the guy was just coach of the year. That was a tremendous positive.

That scenario and this year's have very little in common - Arians coached in the NFL longer than I've been alive. KK hasn't once.

Edit - Also, please don't take that last comment as a negative, I'm just saying the scenarios are wildly different and not an apt comparison.

I'm referring to your read on how "Kingsbury doesn't know the coaches" and yada yada yada.

Arians hire was NOT viewed positively. I think you have your facts wrong here. See Kerouac's comment. Most people viewed him as a career assistant who hadn't gotten a shot for a reason.

I know you asked about things he did wrong in this thread or another thread. There were TONS of small mistakes he made over the last few years. Things like lining up Kerwynn Williams on the edge on the Field goal unit and having Richard Sherman (I think it was) block a kick by totally bowling over Williams. Anyone who followed the Cardinals closely KNEW Williams can't block you or me. That's a tactical blunder. He also didn't adapt his scheme quick enough for injuries.

What about Brandon Williams getting beat repeatedly against the Patriots? That's coaching. If you want I can continue...but he made a lot of mistakes over the last two seasons he was with the Cardinals. Heck, everyone knew Amos Jones was a horrible coach and yet Arians stuck with him.

 

[kerouac9]

Concepts, but no one runs more that a few plays here and there. I think once everything is settled, you

From what I've read/heard, to someone uninitiated on how the Air Raid works, it appears to be a simple offense. There isn't a ton of plays, but the play itself changes as the defense reacts. If you move a linebacker into the middle of the field to disrupt mesh, then on of the receivers breaks off his route and cuts up field to an open area.

Basically, run to open grass. This relies on the receiver and QB to know how to react to different situations while the play itself unfolds. The defense only has a few ways it can react in any situation, so this puts tremendous stress on the defense. Or at least this has been my amateur understanding of the offense to this point.

Zone defenses don't work too well against the Air Raid because receivers are looking for all the soft spots and this forces mismatches since receivers are going to change their route as the play dictates. This is very different than spread concepts and is actually quite sophisticated, but also quite simple at the same time.

Chip Kelly, like you said, runs more run based concepts. The problem with Kelly's offense is that it basically only runs a few plays out of different formations and requires players to out execute other players. That's not going to work too well in the NFL for long.

Kingsbury's offense at Tech was not written down. It was a video playbook. How complicated could it be?

So many words. Bama's zone seemed to work just fine against the Air Raid until they started putting in their subs.

My understanding is that the Air Raid concept is a bunch of linked "If this/then that" concepts for a couple areas of the field. Isolate one combination of safety/corner and the QB only has to wait for one or the other to make the wrong step. You create holes by expanding the size of the field that defenses have to defend (as Mike Leach explains here: https://arizonasports.com/story/1798629/mike-leach-kliff-kingsbury-air-raid-nfl-aliens/).

The problem is that defenses are more sophisticated at closing those holes in the NFL, and NFL pass rushers are more adept and disrupting the pocket before receivers can pressure that 20-30 yard range.

I don't have a subscription to the Athletic, but this seems like an intriguing article from even before the draft: https://theathletic.com/805858/2019...ingsburys-air-raid-offense-adapts-to-the-nfl/

 

[JeffGollin]

I'm referring to your read on how "Kingsbury doesn't know the coaches" and yada yada yada.

Arians hire was NOT viewed positively. I think you have your facts wrong here. See Kerouac's comment. Most people viewed him as a career assistant who hadn't gotten a shot for a reason.

I know you asked about things he did wrong in this thread or another thread. There were TONS of small mistakes he made over the last few years. Things like lining up Kerwynn Williams on the edge on the Field goal unit and having Richard Sherman (I think it was) block a kick by totally bowling over Williams. Anyone who followed the Cardinals closely KNEW Williams can't block you or me. That's a tactical blunder. He also didn't adapt his scheme quick enough for injuries.

What about Brandon Williams getting beat repeatedly against the Patriots? That's coaching. If you want I can continue...but he made a lot of mistakes over the last two seasons he was with the Cardinals. Heck, everyone knew Amos Jones was a horrible coach and yet Arians stuck with him.

Krang - You point to various BA miscues, and you might be right. Yet it is still possible that BA was right for that Cardinal team despite those miscues.

When BA came aboard, the Cardinals had a somewhat lackluster offense. BA brought a more creative approach involving chunk yardage and stretching the field. He also recognized Carson Palmer's ability and forged a good working relationship.

So now we have Kingsbury. I'm sure many people will point to specific wrong-headed coaching decisions he's made, but could it just be that he'll bring in approaches that help us win?

My hope re Murray - I've seen him on tape deliver the ball quickly, accurately and on time. If he's done it once, he can be coached to do it again (hopefully on a consistent basis).

 

[Solar7]

I'm referring to your read on how "Kingsbury doesn't know the coaches" and yada yada yada.

Arians hire was NOT viewed positively. I think you have your facts wrong here. See Kerouac's comment. Most people viewed him as a career assistant who hadn't gotten a shot for a reason.

I know you asked about things he did wrong in this thread or another thread. There were TONS of small mistakes he made over the last few years. Things like lining up Kerwynn Williams on the edge on the Field goal unit and having Richard Sherman (I think it was) block a kick by totally bowling over Williams. Anyone who followed the Cardinals closely KNEW Williams can't block you or me. That's a tactical blunder. He also didn't adapt his scheme quick enough for injuries.

What about Brandon Williams getting beat repeatedly against the Patriots? That's coaching. If you want I can continue...but he made a lot of mistakes over the last two seasons he was with the Cardinals. Heck, everyone knew Amos Jones was a horrible coach and yet Arians stuck with him.

I'll let the Arians thing rest. My research is bringing up a mixed bag, and it was many years ago.

As far as "what he did wrong," that was about a personnel standpoint and how it set up the future. There's no doubt in my mind that we ended his era without a ton of young talent, but functionally it was either blowing it all up after 2015 and rebuilding, or trying to push and try again. I don't know what else he as a coach should have done from a personnel standpoint to put us in position for the future.

 

[ARZCardinals]

It’s the off season ...pump in the kool aid all you want

Having watched every play live and rewatching a lot of the season It was easy to see DJ went down on contact way way way too often.
Previous years he’d fight through arm tackles...he showed he was content to go down and protect himself...remember he only averaged 53 yards a game....NOT GOOD

Till I see it I’m not buying into DJ this coming season.

It’s about the same time as last year word was Bradford could be great threads ran.

It’s nothing more than Kool aid time for all the teams fans.

 

[PACardsFan]

It’s the off season ...pump in the kool aid all you want

Having watched every play live and rewatching a lot of the season It was easy to see DJ went down on contact way way way too often.
Previous years he’d fight through arm tackles...he showed he was content to go down and protect himself...remember he only averaged 53 yards a game....NOT GOOD

Till I see it I’m not buying into DJ this coming season.

It’s about the same time as last year word was Bradford could be great threads ran.

It’s nothing more than Kool aid time for all the teams fans.

Nothing wrong with a little koolaid in the middle of the summer!! I agree that DJ was less than stellar, but that moron Wilks ran him into the middle of the DLine about 160 times. That’s a beating that no one should have to take. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. This will be a telling season for DJ.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'll let the Arians thing rest. My research is bringing up a mixed bag, and it was many years ago.

As far as "what he did wrong," that was about a personnel standpoint and how it set up the future. There's no doubt in my mind that we ended his era without a ton of young talent, but functionally it was either blowing it all up after 2015 and rebuilding, or trying to push and try again. I don't know what else he as a coach should have done from a personnel standpoint to put us in position for the future.

I'm criticizing strategy.

Putting a well below average blocker to block the edge on a field goal block unit is criminal.

 

[Passepartout]

Just hope he can be great again. It seems that having new deals can really hurt a player. But really great player and a classier guy.

 

[cardpa]

Kingsbury's offense at Tech was not written down. It was a video playbook. How complicated could it be?

So many words. Bama's zone seemed to work just fine against the Air Raid until they started putting in their subs.

My understanding is that the Air Raid concept is a bunch of linked "If this/then that" concepts for a couple areas of the field. Isolate one combination of safety/corner and the QB only has to wait for one or the other to make the wrong step. You create holes by expanding the size of the field that defenses have to defend (as Mike Leach explains here: https://arizonasports.com/story/1798629/mike-leach-kliff-kingsbury-air-raid-nfl-aliens/).

The problem is that defenses are more sophisticated at closing those holes in the NFL, and NFL pass rushers are more adept and disrupting the pocket before receivers can pressure that 20-30 yard range.

I don't have a subscription to the Athletic, but this seems like an intriguing article from even before the draft: https://theathletic.com/805858/2019...ingsburys-air-raid-offense-adapts-to-the-nfl/

SO I guess we are going to see 53 players walking around the sidelines carrying ipads with the plays on them. Hope they are connected to each other.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'll let the Arians thing rest. My research is bringing up a mixed bag, and it was many years ago.

As far as "what he did wrong," that was about a personnel standpoint and how it set up the future. There's no doubt in my mind that we ended his era without a ton of young talent, but functionally it was either blowing it all up after 2015 and rebuilding, or trying to push and try again. I don't know what else he as a coach should have done from a personnel standpoint to put us in position for the future.

I don't fault Arians for the personnel issues, that's Keims deal. Pushing to win today can sometimes have disastrous effects tomorrow.

My vote for impending disaster for an NFL team this year is the Dolphins. I think Brian Flores is going to be embarrassingly bad. Josh Rosen went to a really bad situation. The Dolphins lack talent at a few key positions. Their offensive line was worse than Cardinal's line last year, but they weren't as banged up. But at least they embraced the rebuild instead of trying to compete. If Rosen catches on, their window will open quicker.

 

[JeffGollin]

Nothing wrong with a little koolaid in the middle of the summer!! I agree that DJ was less than stellar, but that moron Wilks ran him into the middle of the DLine about 160 times. That’s a beating that no one should have to take. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. This will be a telling season for DJ.

What we know:

DJ didn't produce last season.

DJ did perform well before that.

We don't know why.

If a player performed at a high standard before, he should (barring injury) be put in a position to do it again.

Whether DJ reaches his earlier level of production depends on (1) whether he's healthy, (2) whether the coaches can push the right buttons (scheme-wise or player-wise) or 3) something we don't know about

 

[kerouac9]

I don't fault Arians for the personnel issues, that's Keims deal. Pushing to win today can sometimes have disastrous effects tomorrow.

My vote for impending disaster for an NFL team this year is the Dolphins. I think Brian Flores is going to be embarrassingly bad. Josh Rosen went to a really bad situation. The Dolphins lack talent at a few key positions. Their offensive line was worse than Cardinal's line last year, but they weren't as banged up. But at least they embraced the rebuild instead of trying to compete. If Rosen catches on, their window will open quicker.

At the same time, I don't know if your head coach/OC/QB coach should necessarily be micro-managing personnel for special teams, either. You can reasonably say that part of his broader failure was his inability to help a special teams unit (and coach, maybe) who was clearly struggling for a few seasons, but I think that's as far as it goes.

I don't see why Oakland wouldn't be the catastrophe this year.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I have him in my dynasty league so I hope he bounces back

 

[Krangodnzr]

At the same time, I don't know if your head coach/OC/QB coach should necessarily be micro-managing personnel for special teams, either. You can reasonably say that part of his broader failure was his inability to help a special teams unit (and coach, maybe) who was clearly struggling for a few seasons, but I think that's as far as it goes.

I don't see why Oakland wouldn't be the catastrophe this year.

No, you dont want your HC micromanaging ST at all, but when one of your subordinates continually fails and you have to ability to intervene, you must or you are held accountable.

I remember how you kept pointing out that the Cardinals were winning a lot of one score games at a much higher than average clip, and that regression to the mean was bound to happen. When you are in so many games like that, small special teams mistakes are huge. Running out a CB like Brandon William's who effectively was worse than most practice squad CBs is a huge mistake. Even bigger mistake is leaving William's in an important game while he continues to get burned over and over.

The scary part is that I am concerned that Arians was covering for a lot of personnel mistakes. Is that all on Keim? Or did uncle Bruce have a lot of say in who Keim drafted?

 

[Chopper0080]

DJ will be better by usage alone.

Here is what we know...

DJ, coming out of college, was not good running between the tackles. Shocking that last year, when he was run between the tackles a ridiculous amount of times, he struggled. Not doing that again, will make him better.