Why The Cardinals Should Draft a QB in Round 1

[Mitch]

If an NFL team wants to maximize its chances for winning a Super Bowl, it needs to draft a promising QB in the 1st round, put complete faith in him, coach him well, surround him with a good supporting cast and stay true to the course.

When one looks at the last 14 Super Bowl winning QBs [Tom Brady (4), Peyton Manning (2), Eli Manning (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Russell Wilson (1), Joe Flacco (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), Drew Brees (1)]...what do 7 of 8 of them have in common?

Answer: 7 of the 8 were drafted by the team they won the Super Bowl with. Exception: Drew Brees (drafted by the Chargers and won with the Saints).

Of the 8 QB, how many of them were drafted in the 1st 32 picks of the draft?

Answer: 6 of 8. The anomalies are Tom Brady (200) and Russell Wilson (75).

Of the 8 QBs how many of them played for the same head coach in the prime years of their career?

Answer: 8 of 8. Brady---Belichick; P. Manning---Dungy; E.Manning---Coughlin; Roethlisberger---Tomlin; Wilson---Carroll; Flacco---J. Harbaugh; Rodgers---McCarthy; Brees---Payton.

Note: of those who are still playing---6 of 7 are still with their head coaches.

You want to win a Super Bowl?

1. Draft a QB, preferrably in Round 1.
2. Keep him with the same head coach.
3. Stick with him through the growing pains.
4. Surround him with a good supporting cast.
5. Stay true to the course.

Does it matter if the head coach is offensive minded?

Answer: No. Just ask Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and John Harbaugh.

 

[Solar7]

Brees wasn’t a first rounder, so calling the “first 32 picks” thing as counting for Brees is a misnomer. Would the Ravens have picked him at 32 if there was another team in front of them? Probably not, since they picked Heap a pick before. The dire need of the Chargers to pick a QB led to Brees’ selection.

Mitch, I highly enjoy your posts, but this is an example of twisting the data to fit your narrative. If you take the same 14 year period and chart the success of 1st rounders in terms of playoff wins, you’ll see more unsuccessful 1st rounders than successful ones.

I still would be comfortable with taking a shot at a QB where we are, but the honest truth of it is that the best rarely make it out of the top 5.

 

[Azlen]

I don't think it changes the narrative that much. It still comes down to the fact that you increase your odds of winning significantly when you have a top QB and most of the top QB's are going to be picked early in the draft. But what is also true is that drafting a QB early is no guarantee that they are going to be any good. That gets proven on a consistent basis.

 

[Mitch]

Brees wasn’t a first rounder, so calling the “first 32 picks” thing as counting for Brees is a misnomer. Would the Ravens have picked him at 32 if there was another team in front of them? Probably not, since they picked Heap a pick before. The dire need of the Chargers to pick a QB led to Brees’ selection.

Mitch, I highly enjoy your posts, but this is an example of twisting the data to fit your narrative. If you take the same 14 year period and chart the success of 1st rounders in terms of playoff wins, you’ll see more unsuccessful 1st rounders than successful ones.

I still would be comfortable with taking a shot at a QB where we are, but the honest truth of it is that the best rarely make it out of the top 5.

Only 2 of the 8 QBs were top 10 picks.

It's like the NBA lottery and ping pong balls---your odds of winning a Super Bowl increase if you draft a QB in the 1st round, you stick with him and keep him with the same coach through his prime---and you build your team around him. The evidence is pretty compelling.

The Cardinals have used only one 1st rounder on a QB in all their years in Arizona. Matt Leinart.

 

[Ohcrap75]

Since we are backed into a wall because of neglecting the position. I don't think we have a choice. Cousins is the only QB in FA that resembles a franchise QB. I don't see him coming here. The rest are just bridges or long shots. I think there are about 6 QBs that I would feel pretty good about investing in this year. A couple more that have promise, but more likely than not will be backups. After all is said and done with draft day trades, I believe all six will be chosen before our pick in the second round. So, its either taking one with our first pick or trading up with our second.

 

[oaken1]

Brees wasn’t a first rounder, so calling the “first 32 picks” thing as counting for Brees is a misnomer. Would the Ravens have picked him at 32 if there was another team in front of them? Probably not, since they picked Heap a pick before. The dire need of the Chargers to pick a QB led to Brees’ selection.

Mitch, I highly enjoy your posts, but this is an example of twisting the data to fit your narrative. If you take the same 14 year period and chart the success of 1st rounders in terms of playoff wins, you’ll see more unsuccessful 1st rounders than successful ones.

I still would be comfortable with taking a shot at a QB where we are, but the honest truth of it is that the best rarely make it out of the top 5.

I disagree... Rodgers and Rothlisberger disagree.

usually the difference in talent for first round QB's is not that great... if it is then they aint first rounders. Its more about style of play and picking the warts you can work with.

Ever notice that a team like Dallas, SF, GB, Pitt... they seam to find good QB's while teams like cleveland, AZ, Miami tend to draft busts?

Part of drafting that QB is assessing his talent level. But a bigger part of it is choosing which QB fits with your team. They have to respond well to the style of coaching that you have and they have to fit the offense you want to run,...or you have to adjust your offense to the style the QB can play best.
Do you think Palmer would have taken us to an NFC Championship game if BA had run a bootleg style offense?? How about running options? We go nowhere if they do that and Palmer looks like the worst QB in the NFL.

Likewise, Seattle goes nowhere if they design their offense for Wilson to stand tall in the pocket.
The best thing about McCoy, as he mentioned in his interview,... he likes to get to know the player and learn what type of coaching he responds to best,...see which plays they like best, how they like to play football. If he can do that then we are not limited to a particular style of QB... we can get a scrambler, a pocket passer, or a generally mobile kinda guy... obviously whoever drafts Mayfield is going to need some bootlegs and rollouts in the offense because sometimes its hard getting the passes over the linemen. whereas Rosen , darnold, and Allen are more traditional QB's.

Some of these guys may respond to a hardass coach who rides them like a fitty cent hooker all day long... others will respond better to questioning and discussion... others need lots of stroking and positive reinforcement... if you take that third type and put him with a hardass coach the player will most likely be ruined.. he is gonna get frustrated and confused and will likely bust.... others you might place with a positive type coach and the player will not respect the coach and they will try and just do their own thing,...because that guy needs a hardass coach to keep him focused.

assessing the personalities and predicted coaching response is the most important part of finding a good player for your team.
Ryan Leaf had all the talent in the world but after a year in san diego the dude was a raging drunk. Matt Leinart was breaking rookie records for Denny Green, but after some time with wiz he really didnt want to play football anymore, the kids play on the field actually regressed from his rookie season.
Because its hard... you have to make sure the guy wants it bad enough to put in the work...some think they do and later realize they dont. Thats what we are dealing with in Nkemdiche, of course dude wants to be a pro and get fat checks... but he doesnt appear to want it bad enough to actually work for it... you cant draft a QB who doesnt want it bad enough or your screwed.

 

[Minski]

Wonder what if any correlation is there between the winning QBs and their position taken in terms of how QBs were taken before them

 

[Capital Card]

Looking at all QB's drafted in first round since 2001:

1. 47 QB drafted in 1st round (as someone mentioned, Drew Brees was the 32nd pick, which was the 2nd round as Houston Texans didn't yet exist)

2. 18 of those 47 still start. (19 if you count Bridgewater as the starter)

3. Of those 18 current starters, 12 were picked in the top 3.

4. There were 20 QBs selected in the top 3, of these 20, only 3 were awful. (Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, and RG3)

5. 19 QB were picked in the first round outside of the top 10.

6. Of these 19, Only 4 start.

7. Deshaun Watson is the only QB in the last 10 years selected outside of the top 10 that currently starts. (unless you count Bridgewater)


In my analysis, if we're going to take a QB in the 1st, it really pays to be in the top 5. A list of all QB's taken since 2001 and picked between 10-15 are:

2017 Patrick Mahomes #10
2017 Deshaun Watson#12
2011 Blaine Gabbert #10
2011 Christian Ponder #12
2006 Matt Leinart #10
2006 Jay cutler #11
2004 Ben Roethlisberger #11

2004... We could have had Ben, but we got Levi. Let me go jump off another bridge. Ugh.


[Edit] Could we swap places with Indy at 3 for our 1st and say... Chandler Jones, plus maybe a 3rd too?

I love him, but we really need a QB.

Go Cards.

 

[JeffGollin]

If an NFL team wants to maximize its chances for winning a Super Bowl, it needs to draft a promising QB in the 1st round, put complete faith in him, coach him well, surround him with a good supporting cast and stay true to the course.

When one looks at the last 14 Super Bowl winning QBs [Tom Brady (4), Peyton Manning (2), Eli Manning (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Russell Wilson (1), Joe Flacco (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), Drew Brees (1)]...what do 7 of 8 of them have in common?

Answer: 7 of the 8 were drafted by the team they won the Super Bowl with. Exception: Drew Brees (drafted by the Chargers and won with the Saints).

Of the 8 QB, how many of them were drafted in the 1st 32 picks of the draft?

Answer: 6 of 8. The anomalies are Tom Brady (200) and Russell Wilson (75).

Of the 8 QBs how many of them played for the same head coach in the prime years of their career?

Answer: 8 of 8. Brady---Belichick; P. Manning---Dungy; E.Manning---Coughlin; Roethlisberger---Tomlin; Wilson---Carroll; Flacco---J. Harbaugh; Rodgers---McCarthy; Brees---Payton.

Note: of those who are still playing---6 of 7 are still with their head coaches.

You want to win a Super Bowl?

1. Draft a QB, preferrably in Round 1.
2. Keep him with the same head coach.
3. Stick with him through the growing pains.
4. Surround him with a good supporting cast.
5. Stay true to the course.

Does it matter if the head coach is offensive minded?

Answer: No. Just ask Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and John Harbaugh.

Doesn't the presence of Brady slant your analysis since he's been around for all those Super Bowls and, therefore represents a small sample size?

 

[WildBB]

Agreed. New regime, rookie QB. Don't sink the ship throwing assinine $$ to 2nd tier QB's.

It might take more than two years, but it'll put the franchise on the proper path. IF the rookie QB somehow fails to pan out by year three, then you consider droping the cash for a vet. But hopefully the Bridge QB will still be in place also, maybe even with another developing youngster in progress.

 

[Dan H]

The Cardinals have used only one 1st rounder on a QB in all their years in Arizona. Matt Leinart.

Timm Rosenbach was a 1st round supplemental pick.

 

[Solar7]

Only 2 of the 8 QBs were top 10 picks.

It's like the NBA lottery and ping pong balls---your odds of winning a Super Bowl increase if you draft a QB in the 1st round, you stick with him and keep him with the same coach through his prime---and you build your team around him. The evidence is pretty compelling.

The Cardinals have used only one 1st rounder on a QB in all their years in Arizona. Matt Leinart.

Okay, the odds of winning a Super Bowl, but let's admit that your sample size cuts off 6 years of modern NFL history, is vastly skewed by Brady, and ignores the overall playoff picture. Yes, the men you mentioned are Super Bowl winners - but for guys like Flacco and Wilson and Peyton's second SB, they also had a complete team around them. It is still any given Sunday. 3 of your 8 weren't drafted in the first round. One of those three is with another team.

I disagree... Rodgers and Rothlisberger disagree.

Rodgers, Flacco, and Roethlisberger are the exception to the rule. Like @Capital Card said, only 4 of the 19 QBs drafted outside of the top 10 in 17 years still start. That's a horrible percentage.

 

[Buckybird]

The Cardinals have used only one 1st rounder on a QB in all their years in Arizona. Matt Leinart.

Actually twice, Rosey! Even though it was the supplemental, it still cost us a #1.

Damn frustrating that this franchise has been to scared to death to reach for the stars since arriving in 1988.

Totally agree with your original post though & said it repeatedly thru the years. Peeps can say it’s too risky, but the history don’t lie.

Here’s another link that breaks it down pretty in depth:http://www.nfl.com/superbowlchamps/quarterbacks

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/superbowl_quarterbacks/

 

[b8rtm8nn]

Good post, but I thought the 5 year contract was a selling point to...

 

[Arz101]

Paxton Lynch is someone worth a 5th round pick I think. He was drafted in top 20 of first round 2 years ago. McCoy has inside knowledge too. This is something to watch when FA opens. If Lynch is not a starter doesn't hurt to have a big tall QB as a backup at affordable price with some upside.

 

[oaken1]

Okay, the odds of winning a Super Bowl, but let's admit that your sample size cuts off 6 years of modern NFL history, is vastly skewed by Brady, and ignores the overall playoff picture. Yes, the men you mentioned are Super Bowl winners - but for guys like Flacco and Wilson and Peyton's second SB, they also had a complete team around them. It is still any given Sunday. 3 of your 8 weren't drafted in the first round. One of those three is with another team.


Rodgers, Flacco, and Roethlisberger are the exception to the rule. Like @Capital Card said, only 4 of the 19 QBs drafted outside of the top 10 in 17 years still start. That's a horrible percentage.

thats 22%.... look up how many PLAYERS are still in the league that long.... according to the NFLPA the average career is only 3.3 years.... but you think having 20% of the players from a specific position still STARTING is a bad thing?

only 3 of the 6 drafted #2 overall in the past twenty years are still in the league and all three of those were drafted in the last three years. OMG!! Thats only half!!

only 8 of the 14 taken #1 overall are still in the league...

maybe we should look up how many first round linebackers are still in the league over a 17 year span...or DT's

Rodgers and Rothlisberger both went to teams with a history of properly developing quarterbacks... the Ravens are too new to have a "history"... but they even developed a couple guys back when they were the Browns.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

" like a fitty cent hooker"

I beg your pardon!

 

[oaken1]

I beg your pardon!

two bit ho just sounded so derogatory

 

[Southpaw]

Does it matter if the head coach is offensive minded?

Answer: No. Just ask Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and John Harbaugh.

Not a logical conclusion IMO.

 

[gmabel830]

2004... We could have had Ben, but we got Levi. Let me go jump off another bridge. Ugh.

Levi wasn't 2004 -- we took some other bum who didn't make it, Lonny Fitzpatrick or something like that, with the 3rd pick that year instead of Ben.

Adrian Peterson was the guy was passed on for Levi (and that was 2007).

 

[gmabel830]

There's a heck of a lot more failed 1st round QB-coach combos than successful ones. It's about finding the right guy, not a guy.

 

[Azlen]

The Cards need to decide who it is they want and then be aggressive in getting them. Being passive and letting the process do it's thing may be an acceptable way to hire a coach (though we'll have to see if it worked this time) but it's not the best way to get a QB. It doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to get their number one guy but they still need to be aggressive and go get whoever it is they want.

 

[Arz101]

No NFL team wants to waste an above average defense and a top RB. Cards will shake the veteran QB market to see if another apple falls their way to maximize winning.

Sent from my PH-1 using Tapatalk

 

[Buckybird]

Paxton Lynch is someone worth a 5th round pick I think. He was drafted in top 20 of first round 2 years ago. McCoy has inside knowledge too. This is something to watch when FA opens. If Lynch is not a starter doesn't hurt to have a big tall QB as a backup at affordable price with some upside.

There has never been an NFL QB 6’7” or taller ever amount to jack squat in the nfl. Never

 

[GimmedaBall]

SK suffers from GM 'Paralysis By Analysis.' I have no doubt that SK can quote chapter and verse from all the stats compiled on the QB and the draft in the many links posted here.

The easiest thing to do is to find a reason not to make a move. This is where all the analysis makes a GM catatonic and numb to act. SK uses the 'comparables' when evaluating a player---who is the pro QB that looks most like the rook QB you are evaluating. It was SK's rationale for passing on Russell Wilson---the only comparable was Drew Breese and SK didn't want to gamble.

(Here's a trivia question---who did the Cards take in the round instead of Wilson?)

SK is finally going to have to either **** or get off the pot. He has to decide if he is going to be the guy in Card's history who just couldn't pull the trigger on a QB and sends us to years of mediocrity OR he is going to be the guy who took that risk and went after the guy---despite some flaws---who worked out for us.