With the 13th pick, the Phoenix Suns select...

[AzStevenCal]

About anything would be a huge improvement at PF. And I really like Len, I think he still has yet to reach his potential but his position id not really PF

I have not put a lot of time into evaluating the rookies but I try to envision how we should grow a core and it's obvious that we need PF and maybe PG or SF so I hope we fill at least one rotation spot in this years draft (short term) and hit for the fences with the other pick.

We definitely need help at both forward positions but we were outplayed by our opponents all season long at all 5 positions. The only time we held our own at any spot was at the guard spots early in the season. So I think we need quality players more than we need to fill a position. There isn't a player in this draft that's going to instantly solve our problems so I'd prefer a pure talent search rather than trying to fill a spot. We won't matter until we solve our front court dilemma but we need to take the steps available to us this season whatever they may be. If we see a clear BPA, that has to be our guy at each pick.

 

[3rdside]

Easy decision. Thon Maker is not going in the lotto. YouTube **** fanboys.

Lol, because footage of every other player youve seen wasn't on YouTube?

That's all I've got over here - haven't seen a college or high school game since about 1997.








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[Chaplin]

Lol, because footage of every other player youve seen wasn't on YouTube?

That's all I've got over here - haven't seen a college or high school game since about 1997.

The point is that Maker isn't lottery talent.

 

[3rdside]

Hence my proposal to start a draft opinion audit..im hardly going to sit here and scream he is right back at you.


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[3rdside]

(Although I did say he'd go before 19, not the lottery even though I'd probably take him at 13 if Sabonis is gone).


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[3rdside]

Over on real gm someone posted an espn (I think) insider report that said the lakers might want to consider Chriss at 2 ...


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[Chaplin]

Over on real gm someone posted an espn (I think) insider report that said the lakers might want to consider Chriss at 2 ...


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That's simply ridiculous.

 

[3rdside]

My first choice was for the Suns to draft Jamal Murray at #4. He is another player from Kentucky who is an explosive scorer. I can see him playing PG. IMO, he is a safe pick.

Then I switched choices to Jaylen Brown at #4 who is physical specimen who might eventually play some PF in in small ball lineups. He would help strengthen one of the forward positions. Now I'm beginning to question his attitude.

Then I switched my choice to drafting Henry Ellenson at #4 because I don't think he will be there at #13. He is not a flashy player but I like his ball handling skills and his size. He should have a long career although he may never reach star level... but I think he is a safe pick like Murray.

A trade down would be nice at #4 but you can't count on it happening.

I'm still not settled on the 4th pick so it is hard to move onto the 13th pick but for now I'm sticking with Ellenson. I wish I knew more about Dragan Bender. The scouts seem to like him and all the big men in this draft are project players.

I guess I would draft Skal Labissiere at #13.

I think the Celtics will draft Chriss or trade out of the #3 position.

I was okay with Ellenson - not at 4, 13 - but I've really gone off him as he's slow as hell if you watch his videos. Matched up against the Chriss's and makers of the world, and in this faster NBA, he's not worth it.

(And on that note can I re-express my query with the Suns and their roster compilation; how is it that we've got speed running through our dna, the NBA has gone speedy, yet McD has managed to draft lumbering Len putting him at PF and acquire slowing down chandler? jury is clearly still out on him..)


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[Covert Rain]

Hence my proposal to start a draft opinion audit..im hardly going to sit here and scream he is right back at you.


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Sure while your at it, start one for trades, free agent acquisitions, coaching hires, game match ups and and halftime adjustments.

 

[3rdside]

Sure while your at it, start one for trades, free agent acquisitions, coaching hires, game match ups and and halftime adjustments.

That's complicated - a draft record isn't.


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[Covert Rain]

That's complicated - a draft record isn't.


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It won't stop people from posting their opinions, it won't accurately predict (statistically) future opinions as those are not simple static choices with many x-factors, it won't get people to "check" your tracker before reading someones opinion either. It would be an exercise in futility.

 

[3rdside]

Have as many opinions as you like but on draft day they become fixed - you're basically betting your opinion at that point.

I can't say for sure it won't be an exercise in futility but my guess is after a few years we'll start to see trends appearing ie those who are better predictors of talent will become clearer.

Why do I want to do it? By working out who's any good at talent identification it gives that person greater credibility when stating an opinion going forward - gator Hater might be inclined to be less blunt expressing his difference of opinion if in four years time maker is averaging 16 and 8 and he knows that I called it against the odds. Or he can be even more blunt if in 4 years time maker's out of the league and I start bigging up another high school prospect.

More relevant to the team; for any draft in the future the person with 'earned credibility' is better able to judge the wisdom of the GM's picks at the time of the draft - giving the entire message board greater insight (or an improved confidence level with which to judge) the wisdom of the GM's picks.


If I do do the record - far from a given at this point - I don't know the best format or anything, but I do know It shouldn't be a nerdy submission; it would be good to have a casual approach, but with solid opinions nonetheless.



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[Covert Rain]

Have as many opinions as you like but on draft day they become fixed - you're basically betting your opinion at that point.

I can't say for sure it won't be an exercise in futility but my guess is after a few years we'll start to see trends appearing ie those who are better predictors of talent will become clearer.

Why do I want to do it? By working out who's any good at talent identification it gives that person greater credibility when stating an opinion going forward - gator Hater might be inclined to be less blunt expressing his difference of opinion if in four years time maker is averaging 16 and 8 and he knows that I called it against the odds. Or he can be even more blunt if in 4 years time maker's out of the league and I start bigging up another high school prospect.

More relevant to the team; for any draft in the future the person with 'earned credibility' is better able to judge the wisdom of the GM's picks at the time of the draft - giving the entire message board greater insight (or an improved confidence level with which to judge) the wisdom of the GM's picks.


If I do do the record - far from a given at this point - I don't know the best format or anything, but I do know It shouldn't be a nerdy submission; it would be good to have a casual approach, but with solid opinions nonetheless.

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In terms of opinions being fixed, that's not how statistics work. The method at which you derive those picks is important and that can vary widely from year to year. You would have to set standards for deriving those picks and validate those methods were used by everyone or your tracking would be useless.

It appears your end game would be simply to chest thump and try to invalidate opinions on a discussion board which are setup to express someones opinion and not statistical accuracy. Again for any of this to matter to anybody but you, the huge assumption on your part is people are going to bother reading what you put together before engaging in a conversation with someone about a draft pick. That might make you feel better about your own posts but it's futile because I don't think anybody else would care or avoid a conversation with someone because of it. Many people just make picks for fun not to compare themselves statistically with each other.

 

[AzStevenCal]

OK but your end game would be simply to chest thump and try and invalidate opinions on a discussion board which are setup to express someones opinion and not statistical accuracy. Again for any of this to matter to anybody but you, the huge assumption on your part is people are going to bother reading what you put together before engaging in a conversation with someone about a draft pick. That might make you feel better about your own posts but it's futile because I don't think anybody else would care or avoid a conversation with someone because of it. Many people just make picks for fun not to compare themselves statistically with each other.

Agreed and also, there are opinions and then there are OPINIONS. Like many of us here, I have an opinion on almost everything. Sometimes my opinion is well researched and well supported by the evidence and sometimes my opinion is nothing more than a WAG.

I really thought Don McLean was going to be a star, that probably says something about my ability to "scout". I was against drafting Booker. I was convinced that we were looking at a golden opportunity to grab a Turner or a Portis and solve our PF dilemma for a decade. And while I believe I was wrong on the Booker choice, that probably says very little about my ability to gauge talent.

 

[Covert Rain]

Agreed and also, there are opinions and then there are OPINIONS. Like many of us here, I have an opinion on almost everything. Sometimes my opinion is well researched and well supported by the evidence and sometimes my opinion is nothing more than a WAG.

I really thought Don McLean was going to be a star, that probably says something about my ability to "scout". I was against drafting Booker. I was convinced that we were looking at a golden opportunity to grab a Turner or a Portis and solve our PF dilemma for a decade. And while I believe I was wrong on the Booker choice, that probably says very little about my ability to gauge talent.

I have to laugh a little because my brother was a HUGE MacLean "fan".

 

[AzStevenCal]

I have to laugh a little because my brother was a HUGE MacLean "fan".

I thought his mid-range game and his ability to shoot with various release points would make him an unstoppable scorer. As a Wildcat fan I REALLY didn't like Maclean but I thought for sure he'd be a star. And I'm a big Don Mclean fan, the singer-songwriter, so I'll offer that up as the excuse for spelling Don the basketball player's name wrong earlier.

 

[Covert Rain]

I thought his mid-range game and his ability to shoot with various release points would make him an unstoppable scorer. As a Wildcat fan I REALLY didn't like Maclean but I thought for sure he'd be a star. And I'm a big Don Mclean fan, the singer-songwriter, so I'll offer that up as the excuse for spelling Don the basketball player's name wrong earlier.

 

[BC867]

(And on that note can I re-express my query with the Suns and their roster compilation; how is it that we've got speed running through our dna, the NBA has gone speedy, yet McD has managed to draft lumbering Len putting him at PF and acquire slowing down chandler? jury is clearly still out on him..)

I would say that, no matter what the emphasis is during any stretch of time, you still need balance. A team with all speed and no power is just as limiting as one with all power and no speed.

 

[elindholm]

Why do I want to do it? By working out who's any good at talent identification it gives that person greater credibility when stating an opinion going forward - gator Hater might be inclined to be less blunt expressing his difference of opinion if in four years time maker is averaging 16 and 8 and he knows that I called it against the odds. Or he can be even more blunt if in 4 years time maker's out of the league and I start bigging up another high school prospect.

It's a nice idea, but almost no one on this board pays careful enough attention to who said what. You'd have to have the scoreboard Stickied and refer to it multiple times a week. And even then you'd get criticisms about small sample size or how every situation is different.

I can say with confidence, however, that I'm terrible at evaluating draft prospects and have never claimed otherwise.

 

[slinslin]

Even if everyone bought in, would it really tell you anything. Take slinslin for example. Which opinion on player X are you going to log for him? His first opinion or his 34th opinion? The more active a person is in the draft conversation the more likely his (or her) opinion will shift, especially if they are trying to be open-minded and allow themselves to be influenced by data and other opinions.

Or take me for example. I really liked Jaylen Brown and thought he was a lock for future superstar. Then I watched a few more Cal games and I jumped off his bandwagon completely and then he had a good stretch of games and I snuck back on but settled for a spot in the back and now I'm ready to pull the spokes off his wagon wheels so no one will waste time and effort crawling onto it. Same with Murray (actually, both Murrays). And I did something quite similar a few years back with Kyrie Irving, changed my mind a half dozen times on him at least.

I am still switching back and forth on guys

But to be fair while I am switching my opinion a lot it changes only the rankings among those that I like.

The guys I overall like and don't like stay consistent.

At C I like Maker, D.Jones
At PF I like Chriss and Labissiere
At SF I like Brown and Prince
At SG I like Valentine, McCaw, Richardson
At PG I like D.Murray, Payton II, Baldwin

If possible I would like to move a combination of Knight, Tucker, Rights to Bogdan (if he doesnt come over this year), 34 for a pick to secure Jaylen Brown so we can draft both Chriss and Brown or Chriss and Murray.

I hope we are really aggressive on draft night to move up. My best case draft day might be something like using a combination of these assets: Knights, Bledsoe Tucker, Bogdanovic, 13, 28, 34, Miami'19 to move up twice in the top 10 and end up with Murray, Chriss, Brown.

Heck if the rumors are true that the Sixers are shopping Noel and Okafor for as little as a young guard in return and consider moving Noel, Covington for Teague while valueing Noel higher than Okafor. In that case I would get on the phone and offer

Knight and 13 for Okafor
Dangle Bledsoe to Minnesota for #5

 

[Cheesebeef]

I would say that, no matter what the emphasis is during any stretch of time, you still need balance. A team with all speed and no power is just as limiting as one with all power and no speed.

tell that to the team who's about to win back to back titles while averaging 70 wins per season the last two years.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Warriors have Draymond Green. He is their power.

 

[sunsfan88]

Even if everyone bought in, would it really tell you anything. Take slinslin for example. Which opinion on player X are you going to log for him? His first opinion or his 34th opinion? The more active a person is in the draft conversation the more likely his (or her) opinion will shift, especially if they are trying to be open-minded and allow themselves to be influenced by data and other opinions.

Or take me for example. I really liked Jaylen Brown and thought he was a lock for future superstar. Then I watched a few more Cal games and I jumped off his bandwagon completely and then he had a good stretch of games and I snuck back on but settled for a spot in the back and now I'm ready to pull the spokes off his wagon wheels so no one will waste time and effort crawling onto it. Same with Murray (actually, both Murrays). And I did something quite similar a few years back with Kyrie Irving, changed my mind a half dozen times on him at least.

This is an easy one, his last one before the draft day. We all change opinions but yea for the purposes that he was bringing up, it would be the last one before the draft day.

It's actually not a bad idea either.

 

[AzStevenCal]

This is an easy one, his last one before the draft day. We all change opinions but yea for the purposes that he was bringing up, it would be the last one before the draft day.

It's actually not a bad idea either.

Unless you pare it down and do it by polls it's going to be an almost unmanageable project IMO. And it's not going to reveal anything of consequence.

If, instead of approaching it like a report card, he'd offered to do it as a contest it might actually be entertaining but grading posters is simply a bad idea. And unnecessary. If you're an active member you've already reached conclusions on the credibility of the other regulars which is just another way of saying "that person is pretty sharp, his/her opinion runs similar to mine most of the time".

 

[sunsfan88]

Unless you pare it down and do it by polls it's going to be an almost unmanageable project IMO. And it's not going to reveal anything of consequence.

If, instead of approaching it like a report card, he'd offered to do it as a contest it might actually be entertaining but grading posters is simply a bad idea. And unnecessary. If you're an active member you've already reached conclusions on the credibility of the other regulars which is just another way of saying "that person is pretty sharp, his/her opinion runs similar to mine most of the time".

Yea I didn't mean it as grading posters, more so as a contest. Chances are all of us will probably miss a lot more than we will get correct anyway.