Worst case scenerio Mock Draft: Ingram, Floyd, Reiff, DeCastro, Keuchly gone by #13

[Chopper0080]

That slow, unathletic player was only the most dominant player on the greatest defense in the history of college football.

Quote from a NFL Scout in Pro Football Weekly (Audibles): " I love Courtney Upshaw. He may be my favorite player this year. Other scouts are killing him because he is short. I say, OK, let him go to Pittsburgh and turn into a pro bowler."

In college, against college talent. I'm sure you want to draft Kellen Moore as well. In the NFL, what is he going to do when he ia a 3-4 OLB and has to cover Ray Rice in the flat? He is a totally exploitable player at OLB. As far as your quote, teams aren't killing him because he is short, they are killing him because he is short, AND slow AND has short arms AND plays a position where athleticism is paramount. He was dominant player on a team of dominant players. The NFL draft history is full of players who were great in college and just didn't have the athletic talent to be as successful in the NFL. Like it or not, Courtney Upshaw is one of these players.

In the end, he isn't one of the top 20 players in this draft because he doesn't have the measurable athleticism to overcome his tape which shows him as a physical player who lacks burst, agility and overall speed. I'm sorry but slow pass rushers aren't that effective and represent poor value in the 1st round.

 

[Duckjake]

In college, against college talent. I'm sure you want to draft Kellen Moore as well. In the NFL, what is he going to do when he ia a 3-4 OLB and has to cover Ray Rice in the flat? He is a totally exploitable player at OLB. As far as your quote, teams aren't killing him because he is short, they are killing him because he is short, AND slow AND has short arms AND plays a position where athleticism is paramount. He was dominant player on a team of dominant players. The NFL draft history is full of players who were great in college and just didn't have the athletic talent to be as successful in the NFL. Like it or not, Courtney Upshaw is one of these players.

In the end, he isn't one of the top 20 players in this draft because he doesn't have the measurable athleticism to overcome his tape which shows him as a physical player who lacks burst, agility and overall speed. I'm sorry but slow pass rushers aren't that effective and represent poor value in the 1st round.

This is something I don't understand. Isn't having a 3-4 OLB covering a RB exactly what the offense wants? You would think a guy like LSH could really take advantage of DeMarcus Ware or James Harrison covering him*. Why wouldn't the WILB take that coverage? I'd much rather have DWash on the RB than Sam Acho. Can the WILB not get there in time?

I know it happens all the time as one of the two OLBs has to be in coverage. But it just seems like the RBs should win that battle more often than not.

I do know that Clark Haggans and Sam had 4pdf's combined last season so maybe that's hole in the Cards defense?

*I'd have put Beanie here but he can't catch a cold.

 

[Chopper0080]

This is something I don't understand. Isn't having a 3-4 OLB covering a RB exactly what the offense wants? You would think a guy like LSH could really take advantage of DeMarcus Ware or James Harrison covering him*. Why wouldn't the WILB take that coverage? I'd much rather have DWash on the RB than Sam Acho. Can the WILB not get there in time?

I know it happens all the time as one of the two OLBs has to be in coverage. But it just seems like the RBs should win that battle more often than not.

I do know that Clark Haggans and Sam had 4pdf's combined last season so maybe that's hole in the Cards defense?

*I'd have put Beanie here but he can't catch a cold.

It is the risk that comes with the zone blitz scheme. You overload one side and drop the OLB on the opposite side to the flat. The idea is he can keep up with a RB for enough time to allow the bltiz to get home. Also, you want your OLBs to have the skill to drop into a zone when needed so your defense isn't telegraphing what it is doing.

 

[JeffGollin]

Courtney Upshaw may be alot higher on the Cards board than many of us think. Upshaw is just a football player. His style is not Von Milleresque but neither is Sam Acho's and look what Acho did in Horton's defense.

Upshaw is my favorite player in the the entire draft. I just see him as a 6-10 sack per year guy and great versus the run. He will never be a DeMarcus Ware of Von Miller type of pass rushing terror, but he will have a very productive NFL career...

I read where a scout said something along the lines of: "A lot of teams may pass on Upshaw all the way to #24 where the Steelers will snap him up and turn him into a 'too short' Woodley or Harrison type LB who will be in the Pro Bowl for 10+ years."

Hmmm. Think Ray Horton may have similar ideas?

 

[Lomax to Green 84]

In college, against college talent. I'm sure you want to draft Kellen Moore as well. In the NFL, what is he going to do when he ia a 3-4 OLB and has to cover Ray Rice in the flat? He is a totally exploitable player at OLB. As far as your quote, teams aren't killing him because he is short, they are killing him because he is short, AND slow AND has short arms AND plays a position where athleticism is paramount. He was dominant player on a team of dominant players. The NFL draft history is full of players who were great in college and just didn't have the athletic talent to be as successful in the NFL. Like it or not, Courtney Upshaw is one of these players.

In the end, he isn't one of the top 20 players in this draft because he doesn't have the measurable athleticism to overcome his tape which shows him as a physical player who lacks burst, agility and overall speed. I'm sorry but slow pass rushers aren't that effective and represent poor value in the 1st round.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions. The Kellen Moore comparison is a little over the top don't you think? Moore may not even be drafted and Upshaw (as much as you think he is slow and unathletic) will be taken in the first 2 rounds guaranteed.

I'm not advocating Upshaw at #13, but he would a real possibility if we moved down into the 20's.

For comparison purposes, Upshaw ran a 4.79 40 and Terrell Suggs ran a 4.95.

 

[Mitch]

I read where a scout said something along the lines of: "A lot of teams may pass on Upshaw all the way to #24 where the Steelers will snap him up and turn him into a 'too short' Woodley or Harrison type LB who will be in the Pro Bowl for 10+ years."

Hmmm. Think Ray Horton may have similar ideas?

As crazy as this might sound, I think that Dont'a Hightower is better suited to play SOLB in the 34 than Upshaw. Hightower is a better athlete. The thing about Upshaw is, you'd better rush him off the edge every snap, because he is going to be a liability in coverage...far worse than Joey Porter type liability.

I think Upshaw who had bulked up to 275 pounds is better off as a 43 LDE. That way he does two things there---he defends the run to his side and he rushes the passer. Those are the things he does well.

 

[Dr. Jones]

This is why I hate the evaluation phase. During the season Upshaw was a top 15 lock, playing against the highest level of competition in the SEC. Then, a month after the season ends he is going inside the top 10.

Now, after the combine and workouts, people have forgotten how truly dominant he was during the last 2 seasons.

It drives me nuts. Upshaw is a top 15 player IMO and no sprint or shuttle will tell me otherwise.

Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Chopper0080]

Everyone is entitled to their opinions. The Kellen Moore comparison is a little over the top don't you think? Moore may not even be drafted and Upshaw (as much as you think he is slow and unathletic) will be taken in the first 2 rounds guaranteed.

I'm not advocating Upshaw at #13, but he would a real possibility if we moved down into the 20's.

For comparison purposes, Upshaw ran a 4.79 40 and Terrell Suggs ran a 4.95.

Absolutely, the Kellen Moore comparison is over the top, but it is intended to point out that college production is just that, college production. Similar to Justin Blackmon, I think Courtney Upshaw is going to drop in the draft because he will have to adjust his game in the pros to be successful. Upshaw at 279 won't be able to manhandle OTs and plod around the edge to the QB like he was able to in college. He plays a physical game which will translate, but he has not demonstrated the speed to turn the corner in rushing the passer. In my opinion he is very similar to Sam Acho, just significantly larger which makes is why he projects to DE in the pros.

In the end, Upshaw looked slow rushing the passer in college, looked slow at the Senior Bowl, and timed slow at the combine. However you want to cut it, this translates to him being slow.

 

[Chopper0080]

As crazy as this might sound, I think that Dont'a Hightower is better suited to play SOLB in the 34 than Upshaw. Hightower is a better athlete. The thing about Upshaw is, you'd better rush him off the edge every snap, because he is going to be a liability in coverage...far worse than Joey Porter type liability.

I think Upshaw who had bulked up to 275 pounds is better off as a 43 LDE. That way he does two things there---he defends the run to his side and he rushes the passer. Those are the things he does well.

279 at his pro day..

...and I agree.

 

[Pariah]

I'm even okay with drafting Hightower at 13, I think. But I don't want him outside. I'd keep him at SILB.

 

[slanidrac16]

As crazy as this might sound, I think that Dont'a Hightower is better suited to play SOLB in the 34 than Upshaw. Hightower is a better athlete. The thing about Upshaw is, you'd better rush him off the edge every snap, because he is going to be a liability in coverage...far worse than Joey Porter type liability.

I think Upshaw who had bulked up to 275 pounds is better off as a 43 LDE. That way he does two things there---he defends the run to his side and he rushes the passer. Those are the things he does well.

Add that according to what I've read, he is smart, play OLB or ILB. Right now the mismatch is the big TE's. Bring in a db to cover and they'll run over you and most LB's can't cover them. I really like the thought of Hightower because of his versatility. He can stuff the run, drop and cover the middle and can you imagine him teamed up with Washington? Speed kills!

 

[Jasper]

It means DE Quinton Coples is available.

 

[Pariah]

It means DE Quinton Coples is available.

I think he's going to be a really good DE...in a 4-3. I don't think he's going to a 3-4 team.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Alabama had such a good defense because they had a lot of great players. You do not play that well with just a bunch of average guys 'playing as one'...you play that well because you have studs. I would be happy with any of the Bama players if we drafted them. Screw the combine crap, I saw the games. The football games, something the drafted player will be required to do.

 

[WildBB]

Alabama had such a good defense because they had a lot of great players. You do not play that well with just a bunch of average guys 'playing as one'...you play that well because you have studs. I would be happy with any of the Bama players if we drafted them. Screw the combine crap, I saw the games. The football games, something the drafted player will be required to do.

You know they can play. At what level in the Pro's is the question for some.

Upshaw and Kirkpatrick have plenty of questions to answer. The rest, not so much.

 

[Shane]

Alabama had such a good defense because they had a lot of great players. You do not play that well with just a bunch of average guys 'playing as one'...you play that well because you have studs. I would be happy with any of the Bama players if we drafted them. Screw the combine crap, I saw the games. The football games, something the drafted player will be required to do.

:RashadJohnson:

 

[Garthshort]

I hope the draft doesn't go this way, but it very well might. Most mocks, including the GBN fan vote has Carolina going for defense. With most of their offensive prospects off the board (I'm guessing) I think the team's BPA will be a defensive player. I'm guessing Upshaw but wouldn't be too happy. One of the tackles could be the pick, if the team has one high on their board.

 

[WildBB]

I hope the draft doesn't go this way, but it very well might. Most mocks, including the GBN fan vote has Carolina going for defense. With most of their offensive prospects off the board (I'm guessing) I think the team's BPA will be a defensive player. I'm guessing Upshaw but wouldn't be too happy. One of the tackles could be the pick, if the team has one high on their board.

Ingram or Coples may go here.

 

[Garthshort]

WildBB, Ingram, in this scenario, is not available and Coples is a 4-3 type DE.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Garth - looks like WildBB was talking about Carolina. I, too, think Carolina will go defense, specifically DLine.

 

[JeffGollin]

Upshaw - Most draft experts may like him better as a 4-3 DE, but put yourself inside Horton's skull:

What kind of player did Pittsburgh like at OLB? (Both Woodley and Harrison were shorter 260+ lbs guys)

Copley - I had to drive an hour to Princeton yesterday to repair a broken filling and got to hear a lot of Pat Kirwin in my car on SIRIUS. He pointed out that they spent a lot of time interviewing Copley at the Senior Bowl and asking him the tough questions about his proverbial motor. Both Pat and his colleague came away with the impression that Copley will be just fine in the NFL (He certainly did have a pretty impressive Senior Bowl).

 

[kerouac9]

Alabama had such a good defense because they had a lot of great players. You do not play that well with just a bunch of average guys 'playing as one'...you play that well because you have studs. I would be happy with any of the Bama players if we drafted them. Screw the combine crap, I saw the games. The football games, something the drafted player will be required to do.

You could say the same thing about the Trojans' defense of the mid-2000s, but Keith Rivers was just traded for a 5th round pick after being a Top 10 selection, and Sedrick Ellis has yet to be an impact player for the Saints after being chosen high.

The thing with college defenses with a bunch of above-average players is that it's really difficult to say who's really outstanding. The value on those players is usually good players who slipped down into the middle rounds, not the guys at the top.

Rashad Johnson notwithstanding.

 

[Duckjake]

You could say the same thing about the Trojans' defense of the mid-2000s, but Keith Rivers was just traded for a 5th round pick after being a Top 10 selection, and Sedrick Ellis has yet to be an impact player for the Saints after being chosen high.

The thing with college defenses with a bunch of above-average players is that it's really difficult to say who's really outstanding. The value on those players is usually good players who slipped down into the middle rounds, not the guys at the top.

Rashad Johnson notwithstanding.

Look at the Texas defensive backfield from their National Championship team. All 5 DBs were drafted. The best NFL player has turned out to be Michael Griffin who was the least heralded of the top 4, Michael, Mike Huff,Cedric Griffin,and Aaron Ross. And Tarrell Brown who was the 5th DB for that team was a 5th round selection has played for the 4and9ers for 5 years and had a solid year for the 49ers as a starter in 2011.

And of course there are Sam Acho and Darnell Dockett. Two of our best defensive players, both from big time programs, and taken with 4th and 3rd round picks respectively.

 

[kerouac9]

Look at the Texas defensive backfield from their National Championship team. All 5 DBs were drafted. The best NFL player has turned out to be Michael Griffin who was the least heralded of the top 4, Michael, Mike Huff,Cedric Griffin,and Aaron Ross. And Tarrell Brown who was the 5th DB for that team was a 5th round selection has played for the 4and9ers for 5 years and had a solid year for the 49ers as a starter in 2011.

And of course there are Sam Acho and Darnell Dockett. Two of our best defensive players, both from big time programs, and taken with 4th and 3rd round picks respectively.

Or Lyle Sendlein, right? Or look at the USC National Championship offense: Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Lutui, Winston Justice, The Other Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett... Where are all these guys now?

I don't think that teams should avoid top programs in the first round--that's craziness. But it does make evaluations of players much, much more difficult. Almost as difficult as evaluating QBs and wideouts from gimmick offenses.

 

[Pariah]

The more I think about this situation (top targets being off the board by #13), I really, really hope the Cards "reach" for Hightower. I actually prefer him over Ingram.