Your Arizona Cardinals now hold the 16th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft

[Gandhi]

Maybe. Here is the 5 yr option issue for ILBs.

The Packers drafted Quay Walker in 2022 with pick 22.

Playtime is the first pay bump for players.

• Playtime: These players will be eligible for a fifth year base salary calculated from the average of the 3rd to 20th highest salaries at their position over the past five seasons, provided that their snap counts over their first three seasons meet one of the following three criteria:
  • 75% or greater in two of their first three seasons
  • an average of 75% or greater over all three seasons
  • 50% or greater over all three seasons

So Quay has hit this because he wasn't a bust. His 5th year option is 14.751 mil. This would make Quay Walker the 6th highest paid ILB in the NFL over Patrick Queen.

If he makes 1 Pro Bowl (he hasn't), his 5th year option bumps to 20.862 mil. That would be more than Roquan Smith's per year average for highest paid LB in the NFL.

Even if you want to extend him at a lower rate, that 5th years factors into the negotiation. And if not, you get into a bidding war with the league for your 25 year old LB.

I don’t think you can use comparisons to other first-round picks. As I mentioned, I think that many people’s perspective is because of what an ILB - or even other high-quality players at non-premium positions – can bring to a team. And some people (fans and teams) want that enough to use a high pick to get it, but since the value is not limited to positional value, it is not relevant how many resources they have used. I am sure that many Cards-fans would gladly use a first-round pick on Budda Baker or Tre McBride.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Do they measure how quickly QBs release their passes?

I'm wondering if one of the reasons our raw sack numbers were decent is because the opposition QBs felt little pressure, felt they had all day to throw. Eventually we got to them at times but on balance they had time to pick us apart.

It sure seemed like we gave opposing QBs a lot of time to get comfortable and gain their confidence before we applied any type of pressure

That worked against us as they were able to pick up apart

Early pressure and not allowing them to get into a rhythm is key for the D

 

[CardNots]

It sure seemed like we gave opposing QBs a lot of time to get comfortable and gain their confidence before we applied any type of pressure

That worked against us as they were able to pick up apart

Early pressure and not allowing them to get into a rhythm is key for the D

We need to be able to apply pressure without leaving the rest of the defense vulnerable.

In other words, increase pressure without blitzing as much as we did last year.

I’m leaning towards DT, DE, OL and ILB not necessarily in that order.

 

[Chopper0080]

But most teams, other than the QB position aren’t drafting player because of their 5th year option.

I mean...they kinda are. The 5th year options for S, TE, RB, EDGE, DL, WR, OT, CB and QB aren't detrimental to the extension of those players like it is for ILB and IOL. The goal is to get a long term player with your 1st round pick, and you can use that 5th year to get an extra cost controlled year OR use it as a starting point for the contract extension. For ILB and IOL it does the opposite.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don’t think you can use comparisons to other first-round picks. As I mentioned, I think that many people’s perspective is because of what an ILB - or even other high-quality players at non-premium positions – can bring to a team. And some people (fans and teams) want that enough to use a high pick to get it, but since the value is not limited to positional value, it is not relevant how many resources they have used. I am sure that many Cards-fans would gladly use a first-round pick on Budda Baker or Tre McBride.

The issue is centered around how 5th year options are calculated for IOL and ILB. The 5th year options for Travon Walker and Quay Walker are the same even though that amount puts them in very different categories amongst their individual position groups. Same with Charles Cross and Zion Johnson.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

The issue is centered around how 5th year options are calculated for IOL and ILB. The 5th year options for Travon Walker and Quay Walker are the same even though that amount puts them in very different categories amongst their individual position groups. Same with Charles Cross and Zion Johnson.

The NFL needs to change that to an ILB designation. As it is now, ILB can’t really be tagged because the premium of edge guys raising the tag value.

 

[Gandhi]

The issue is centered around how 5th year options are calculated for IOL and ILB. The 5th year options for Travon Walker and Quay Walker are the same even though that amount puts them in very different categories amongst their individual position groups. Same with Charles Cross and Zion Johnson.

My point is that contract-stuff doesn't play into if people thinks it is a good idea to draft a guy like Jihaad Campbell, and thus, it doesn't make sense to compare them to contracts for other linebackers. It is not a matter about premium position or not.

 

[Chopper0080]

My point is that contract-stuff doesn't play into if people thinks it is a good idea to draft a guy like Jihaad Campbell, and thus, it doesn't make sense to compare them to contracts for other linebackers. It is not a matter about premium position or not.

I would be shocked if GMs didn't keep this in mind. If they don't, I guess it goes to show why so many struggle in that role.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I would be shocked if GMs didn't keep this in mind. If they don't, I guess it goes to show why so many struggle in that role.

But most GMs don’t have the luxury of a 5 year plan. They’re trying to improve and win the next year. Ideally, you’re thinking that way about the 5th year option, but it’s not very high on the list.

 

[Chopper0080]

But most GMs don’t have the luxury of a 5 year plan. They’re trying to improve and win the next year. Ideally, you’re thinking that way about the 5th year option, but it’s not very high on the list.

I don't think it is a 5 year plan as much as it is about drafting a player you will be able to retain once he hits. If you are saying Monti (just for example) would draft Tyler Booker at 16 because he is worried about making it two more seasons as a GM, then I would argue it's probably the reason he wouldn't be around long term. Yes, there has to be a short term focus but I don't think that is what a good GM uses the draft primarily for.

 

[Gandhi]

I would be shocked if GMs didn't keep this in mind. If they don't, I guess it goes to show why so many struggle in that role.

Well, they probably keep it in mind, but I highly doubt that it matter much in drafting a linebacker. Even the highest paid off-ball linebackers don't cost that much compared to premium positions, so if an off-ball linebacker is good enough after four years, no team would have any problem re-signing him longterm.

Now, specifically with Campbell there will be a discussion with his agent at that time, because he would most likely have a good argument that he should be paid like an edge rusher, but that is obviously besides the point in this context (other than it most likely being a huge factor in a decision to draft him).

 

[oaken1]

But most GMs don’t have the luxury of a 5 year plan. They’re trying to improve and win the next year. Ideally, you’re thinking that way about the 5th year option, but it’s not very high on the list.

Not a single GM in the NFL is drafting players for their rookie seasons. As Cardinal fans, we got accustomed to having the thought of a rookie "savior" coming in and leading us to the promised land.
But that was the hope because we never had hope and our rosters were always completely bereft of talent.
Good teams draft for the future. Draft for talent. Thats why you still see all the talk about us drafting an OT or DT...neither of which would likely take starter reps in their rookie season. But with Beachums age and Williams propensity for injuries neither are the future of RT for this team, they are the present....then look along the D Line...our free agents may give us a couple good seasons..but Robinson and Stills are the only young players to likely be on the roster in 3 or 4 years...and DT usually takes a few years to develop...so getting a guy now is a really good move, even if he is deep in the rotation his rookie year. Doing so, drafting for the future...is why teams like the niners and the hags seemed to have an endless supply of defensive talent for all those years.
occasionally you want big impact from a rookie but its situational... for example, if we were to draft a pass rusher at 16...you might expect at least 7 to 9 sacks from his rookie season... but by year three, you would be expecting 10 or more sacks.

 

[oaken1]

Well, they probably keep it in mind, but I highly doubt that it matter much in drafting a linebacker. Even the highest paid off-ball linebackers don't cost that much compared to premium positions, so if an off-ball linebacker is good enough after four years, no team would have any problem re-signing him longterm.

Now, specifically with Campbell there will be a discussion with his agent at that time, because he would most likely have a good argument that he should be paid like an edge rusher, but that is obviously besides the point in this context (other than it most likely being a huge factor in a decision to draft him).

Thats a warm fuzzy thought process until his agent tells him not to sign a deal for ten million because the fifth year is worth 15 and the franchise tag is worth 28 guaranteed.
you are relying an awful lot on the kids character at that point... most players do not recognize their true value...like Zaven Collins did. all they are thinking about is their bag, and the first new contract is where that usually comes from.

 

[Harry]

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Like the rest of us, he’ll miss more than he hits.

 

[Harry]

brendan donahue has us taking mykel (edge) at 16
daniel jeremiah has us taking golden (wr) at 16
bucky brooks has us taking walter nolen (dt) at 16
chad reuter has us taking kelvin banks (ot) at 16

these are supposedly the best mockers - idk man

Tough year

 

[Harry]

I mean, call me crazy but isn’t that the whole purpose of a trade to begin with to get ahead of a team who might want somebody?

I was referring more to a specific team although BPA/need is still used by numerous teams.

 

[Harry]

Do they measure how quickly QBs release their passes?

I'm wondering if one of the reasons our raw sack numbers were decent is because the opposition QBs felt little pressure, felt they had all day to throw. Eventually we got to them at times but on balance they had time to pick us apart.

Yes, every team measures.

 

[Harry]

The ILB debate is interesting. One more thing to consider. Players drafted with the intent of changing position do not typically excel in year one although the long run is kinder to the concept.

 

[kerouac9]

don't cost that much compared to premium positions, so if an off-ball linebacker is good enough after four years, no team would have any problem re-signing him longterm.

You completely miss the point here. It’s the baseline for the extension is insane, because it’s anchored to the fifth-year option — not the market value.

For a lot of ILBs, the fifth year option value is almost as much as the first two years of their extortion.

 

[GatorAZ]

Todd McShay hinted at Jeanty going #4. Hasn’t happened in the top-5 since Saquon.

 

[BACH]

Well, they probably keep it in mind, but I highly doubt that it matter much in drafting a linebacker. Even the highest paid off-ball linebackers don't cost that much compared to premium positions, so if an off-ball linebacker is good enough after four years, no team would have any problem re-signing him longterm.

Now, specifically with Campbell there will be a discussion with his agent at that time, because he would most likely have a good argument that he should be paid like an edge rusher, but that is obviously besides the point in this context (other than it most likely being a huge factor in a decision to draft him).

Agree with K9 here #shock.

The problem with the 5th option is that they are slated against the drafted position. A 1st round pick at a low value position will have a 5th year option worth more or the same as an all-pro at the position. What if the player is just a very good player below pro-bowl level? Then the team has to pay almost double of market value.

Fifth year options have a base, a bump based on playing time, a further bump based on 1 pro-bowl selection and a further bump based on multiple pro bowls.

If the player is middle of the road the teams get screwed at lower value positions. They have a starter, not elite starter, but have to pay elite money. That is fine at OT, Edge etc., but not for lower value positions. If the Broncos e.g. take rb Hampton at #20 this season. He splits carried and is overall solid. 5th year option in today’s money would make him 3rd highest paid RB behind Barkley and McCaffrey’s inflated salary.

 

[Gandhi]

You completely miss the point here. It’s the baseline for the extension is insane, because it’s anchored to the fifth-year option — not the market value.

For a lot of ILBs, the fifth year option value is almost as much as the first two years of their extortion.

Well, if that is the point then you are highly underrating the development with the salary cap. Or just how it works, for that matter.

Also, while a general manager need to think ahead, it seems irrelevant to me to plan for what might happen five years down the road. Or as @Cbus cardsfan mentioned earlier in this thread, teams don't draft with that option in mind, unless it is for a quarterback, and to that point, three out of the highest paid ILB are on different teams than the one that drafted them.

Going back from 2016 to 2020 (so long enough to proper evaluate the importance of the 5th year option), 24 off-ball linebackers have been drafted in the first two rounds, and two of them are Micah Parsons and Zaven Collins who have later been moved to another position. Of those 22, zero are on the team that drafted them, and none of them had their 5th year option picked up. That was zero.

Drafting an ILB with a cost-controlled contract in mind is borderline silly. You draft him for more than his abilities on-field, just as you draft players at non-premium positions like Budda Baker or Tre McBride because they are tone-setters, playmakers, leaders. And if they do become impact edge rushers like Parsons, you pay them with a big smile.

 

[oaken1]

Well, if that is the point then you are highly underrating the development with the salary cap. Or just how it works, for that matter.

Also, while a general manager need to think ahead, it seems irrelevant to me to plan for what might happen five years down the road. Or as @Cbus cardsfan mentioned earlier in this thread, teams don't draft with that option in mind, unless it is for a quarterback, and to that point, three out of the highest paid ILB are on different teams than the one that drafted them.

Going back from 2016 to 2020 (so long enough to proper evaluate the importance of the 5th year option), 24 off-ball linebackers have been drafted in the first two rounds, and two of them are Micah Parsons and Zaven Collins who have later been moved to another position. Of those 22, zero are on the team that drafted them, and none of them had their 5th year option picked up. That was zero.

Drafting an ILB with a cost-controlled contract in mind is borderline silly. You draft him for more than his abilities on-field, just as you draft players at non-premium positions like Budda Baker or Tre McBride because they are tone-setters, playmakers, leaders. And if they do become impact edge rushers like Parsons, you pay them with a big smile.

The trick is just never let it get to that. Sign the kid after year three with a fat signing bonus

 

[kerouac9]

Going back from 2016 to 2020 (so long enough to proper evaluate the importance of the 5th year option), 24 off-ball linebackers have been drafted in the first two rounds, and two of them are Micah Parsons and Zaven Collins who have later been moved to another position. Of those 22, zero are on the team that drafted them, and none of them had their 5th year option picked up. That was zero.

This doesn’t support your point. It supports mine.

 

[CardNots]

We should get a quality player. I’m excited!

The last decade of the No. 16 pick in the NFL draft

The last decade of the No. 16 pick in the NFL draft​

• 2024 - DL Byron Murphy II, Seattle Seahawks: He had an okay rookie season.
• 2023 - CB Emmanuel Forbes, Washington Commanders: He didn't work out for Washington, getting cut last year and claimed by the Rams.
• 2022 - WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders: He got traded to the Eagleslast year and hasn't had much of an impact yet in the NFL.
• 2021 - LB Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals: Collins has not been spectacular and was moved from off the ball to the defensive edge, but he signed a contract extension through 2026. He led the Cardinals in sacks in 2024 with five.
• 2020 - CB AJ Terrell, Atlanta Falcons: He has been a starter and was named to the All-Pro second team in 2021. He signed a contract extension through 2028.
• 2019 - DE Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers: Burns has 54.5 sacks in six seasons. He was traded to the Giants last year and is a two-time Pro Bowler.
• 2018 - LB Tremaine Edmonds, Buffalo Bills: He has been a two-time Pro Bowler who played five years for the Bills and the last two for the Bears.
• 2017 - CB Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens: He has been great. He is a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro.
• 2016 - OT Taylor Decker, Detroit Lions: Decker has been the Lions' starting left tackle for the last nine seasons and made the Pro Bowl for the first time last season.
• 2015 - CB Kevin Johnson, Houston Texans: He played six seasons in the NFL, starting 25 games.