Your pick at #3 overall?

[kerouac9]

Insanity. Why would you spend a top 3 round pick on a RB? The last time an all pro was on a Super Bowl winning team? 1999

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Well, I mean Lenny Fournette was a Top 10 pick. So what are you showing me here?

I've talked many times that Super Bowl winners are a dumb metric to use, since you only have one per season and so your relevant sample size is small. You can't win the dance unless you make the dance, so I like to look at playoff teams.

2022 Playoff teams, Leading Rusher (yards), Round drafted
KC, Isiah Pacheco 7
BUF, Devin Singletary, 3
CIN, Joe Mixon, 2
JAC, Travis Etienne, 1
LAC, Austin Ekeler, UDFA
BAL, Lamar Jackson, 1/JK Dobbins, 2
MIA, Mostert, UDFA
PHI, Miles Sanders, 2
SFO, Christian McCaffrey, 1
MIN, Dalvin Cook, 2
TB, Fournette, 1
DAL, Zeke, 1
NYG, Saquon, 1
SEA, Kenneth Walker, 2

I'm only doing the one season because this evidence is pretty overwhelming. 78% of playoff teams last season had a leading rusher who was drafted in the first three rounds. Four of them had RBs who were picked very high in the first round.

So... maybe not so insane?

 

[football karma]

I'm only doing the one season because this evidence is pretty overwhelming. 78% of playoff teams last season had a leading rusher who was drafted in the first three rounds. Four of them had RBs who were picked very high in the first round.

Ive often thought the bottom third of the 1st round is a good spot to go RB. With the emphasis on the premium positions -- feels more likely better overall talent is still on the board at RB later in the draft

5 years of cheap control + a franchise tag year.

 

[oaken1]

Ive often thought the bottom third of the 1st round is a good spot to go RB. With the emphasis on the premium positions -- feels more likely better overall talent is still on the board at RB later in the draft

5 years of cheap control + a franchise tag year.

Conventional wisdom says you can get a good RB in the third.

So what if you want/need better than good?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Ive often thought the bottom third of the 1st round is a good spot to go RB. With the emphasis on the premium positions -- feels more likely better overall talent is still on the board at RB later in the draft

5 years of cheap control + a franchise tag year.

Except now, the price of RBs is only around 8-10M to get a really good one. Compare that to WR, DB, Edge etc and 5th year isn't that important for the RB position.

 

[Stout]

and if monti trades the pick that could've been used on mhj???

Very different story.

 

[Chopper0080]

How would you feel if there was a different first-round rookie WR in MHJ's place?
How would you feel if Conner gets injured again in the week or two following the bye?
How do you feel if the #2 WR is just a competition between Hollywood, Wilson, and Rondale Moore?

Not really challenging -- I'm interested in the answer. I consider that personnel comprising a mid-15 offense with Kyler healthy for 14+ games. Might not be good enough to make the playoffs unless the defense is top 10 level.



It's like people didn't learn from the obsession with Will Anderson. If you want to keep rolling over first-round picks so you're picking twice each year, you have to trade down from the higher one. No one is giving up a future first for the 22nd pick in the draft.

We also really need a successor to James Conner in the first three rounds.

My draft right now is essentially MHJ/Nabers/Odunze with the top 10 pick, an OL/DL/EDGE with the Texans pick, and then Troy Franklin in round 2.

I am pretty confident in any combo of MHJ/Nabers/Odunze and Troy Franklin in round 2 to fill the need. If it is just one of those top 3 with the first pick, and then make due with what we have at #2 is more of multi year plan option. You need the Jaylen Waddle / Brandon Aiyuk player to create space by keeping S's back and can punish a defense for bringing Ss down to stop the run. I'm not planning on Brown in the plans.

My guess is the Cardinals will add a RB somewhere which should provide insurance for Conner. I would also guess they try to find a similar back to ensure they have that needed physicality in the running game.

It may be overkill but this is the route I would take to ensure some offensive consistency to support a defense that is going to take some time to build out.

 

[Krangodnzr]

My draft right now is essentially MHJ/Nabers/Odunze with the top 10 pick, an OL/DL/EDGE with the Texans pick, and then Troy Franklin in round 2.

I am pretty confident in any combo of MHJ/Nabers/Odunze and Troy Franklin in round 2 to fill the need. If it is just one of those top 3 with the first pick, and then make due with what we have at #2 is more of multi year plan option. You need the Jaylen Waddle / Brandon Aiyuk player to create space by keeping S's back and can punish a defense for bringing Ss down to stop the run. I'm not planning on Brown in the plans.

My guess is the Cardinals will add a RB somewhere which should provide insurance for Conner. I would also guess they try to find a similar back to ensure they have that needed physicality in the running game.

It may be overkill but this is the route I would take to ensure some offensive consistency to support a defense that is going to take some time to build out.

I like the idea of draft two WRs. If one doesn't work out, the other one likely will.

 

[gmabel830]

Rumor is MHJ has been offered an NIL deal comparable to being a high first round pick.

This is the new normal.

 

[football karma]

Rumor is MHJ has been offered an NIL deal comparable to being a high first round pick.

This is the new normal.

that would be in the $20mm neighborhood

hard to beleive

 

[Chopper0080]

Hard to believe MHJ stays another year. Just a lot of risk and don’t see how he improves his draft position.

 

[GatorAZ]

He’s going pro. Not worth wasting another second on it lol.

 

[oaken1]

Hard to believe MHJ stays another year. Just a lot of risk and don’t see how he improves his draft position.

agree. a top five pick contract is worth about 40mil with 26mil in signing bonus... seems a lot for an NIL to match for a single season.

 

[TheCardFan]

My draft right now is essentially MHJ/Nabers/Odunze with the top 10 pick, an OL/DL/EDGE with the Texans pick, and then Troy Franklin in round 2.

I am right there with you.

The only thing I would add is trading down just a few spots from the top 3 pick and getting another 1st next year and 2nd this year.

 

[Stout]

I am right there with you.

The only thing I would add is trading down just a few spots from the top 3 pick and getting another 1st next year and 2nd this year.

Not at the cost of MHJ. Draft picks don't win poo.

 

[TheCardFan]

Not at the cost of MHJ. Draft picks don't win poo.

What about cap space?

 

[Stout]

What about cap space?

Draft picks win nothing, cap space wins championships haha

 

[overseascardfan]

I'd take Harrison Jr or Alt. Not sure how far down you could trade to still get Alt but those would be who I'd take with our 1st pick.

 

[Harry]

I’d take Harrison. The only thing that could sway me would be if the right two teams were competing for the third QB. If the NYG or Tennessee were to offer this year’s first & second plus next year’s first I’d take that. That would be a huge overpay, but would give the Cards 3 possible starters.

 

[Denny Green Fan]

i feel like the real question is this:

lets say the Cards win a couple games and end up at #7. The Texans pick is at #21.

do you give em both to get to #3 to take MHJ?

No u take nabers and the Oregon state tackle

 

[Hoodhero]

How would this board feel if team somehow managed to get MHJ and Nabers in 1st rd? I know it won't happen but damn not sure if that would be epic or just madness

 

[SECTION 11]

Well, I mean Lenny Fournette was a Top 10 pick. So what are you showing me here?

I've talked many times that Super Bowl winners are a dumb metric to use, since you only have one per season and so your relevant sample size is small. You can't win the dance unless you make the dance, so I like to look at playoff teams.

2022 Playoff teams, Leading Rusher (yards), Round drafted
KC, Isiah Pacheco 7
BUF, Devin Singletary, 3
CIN, Joe Mixon, 2
JAC, Travis Etienne, 1
LAC, Austin Ekeler, UDFA
BAL, Lamar Jackson, 1/JK Dobbins, 2
MIA, Mostert, UDFA
PHI, Miles Sanders, 2
SFO, Christian McCaffrey, 1
MIN, Dalvin Cook, 2
TB, Fournette, 1
DAL, Zeke, 1
NYG, Saquon, 1
SEA, Kenneth Walker, 2

I'm only doing the one season because this evidence is pretty overwhelming. 78% of playoff teams last season had a leading rusher who was drafted in the first three rounds. Four of them had RBs who were picked very high in the first round.

So... maybe not so insane?

Yes! Just draft one every five years.