#1 or BUST! The O'Mighty DRAFT Thread

[Mainstreet]

Below is an update from Doug Haller.

Doug Haller‏Verified account@DougHaller 2h2 hours ago
Suns list F Derrick Jones Jr (tailbone) and G Brandon Knight (back) as questionable for Friday's game vs Orlando.

Knight is only listed as questionable so there is a chance.

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[pokerface]

Any idea to fix tanking is a bad idea.

1. The lottery already adds a element of chance. Nothing is guaranteed to the losingest team.

2. Players themselves aren't sure things. There is a chance element to them as well.

3. Tanking isnt a rampant problem in the league. Teams are far far more motivated financially to make the playoffs versus having a bad team. Teams that are bad or "tank" usually have attendance problems. That in itself is a penalty for tanking.

4. If tanking is penalized then should rich teams be allowed to go over the cap? Why should large markets/Billionaires be allowed advantages like buying players? The draft at least allows smaller markets to contend or "fight back".

5. Tanking can be hard to prove or enforce and can be open to subjective interpretation. Example...Is Bledsoe injured so bad that he can't play now or is it a tanking move? There is a fine line there that can be a bit blurry. Players and teams could be subjected to scrutiny and even worse.. Injury. Accusations and sanctions by the league over tanking could have unintended consequences.

6. All teams are allowed to "tank" so therefore it is a equal playing field. Its not like a single team has that dubious right.

 

[chickenhead]

The lottery itself is supposed to be a remedy for tanking. And it actually does a pretty good job, as the team with the worst record has received the #1 pick less than 20% of the time.

Meanwhile the team with the second-worst record has gotten the #1 pick 9% of the time.

Third-worst, about 22% of the time.
Fourth-worst, about 9%.
Fifth-worst, about 16%.
Sixth-worst, 12.5%.
Seventh-worst, about 3%.
Eighth-worst, about 3%.
Ninth-worst, about 6%.
Tenth-worst, 0%.
Eleventh-worst, about 3%.

If we're looking at historical results, it seems likely that New Jersey>Boston won't get the #1 pick, but has a good chance at #2. After that, who's to say? Historically the best spots in the reverse standings have been #3 > #1 > #5 > #6. But that has no actual effect on this year...

The thing is that people complain both when a tanking team with one of the worst records gets the #1 AND when a lower team in the lottery makes the jump (like Cleveland did a couple times). It's hard to address both things in one system.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The lottery itself is supposed to be a remedy for tanking. And it actually does a pretty good job, as the team with the worst record has received the #1 pick less than 20% of the time.

Meanwhile the team with the second-worst record has gotten the #1 pick 9% of the time.

Third-worst, about 22% of the time.
Fourth-worst, about 9%.
Fifth-worst, about 16%.
Sixth-worst, 12.5%.
Seventh-worst, about 3%.
Eighth-worst, about 3%.
Ninth-worst, about 6%.
Tenth-worst, 0%.
Eleventh-worst, about 3%.

If we're looking at historical results, it seems likely that New Jersey>Boston won't get the #1 pick, but has a good chance at #2. After that, who's to say? Historically the best spots in the reverse standings have been #3 > #1 > #5 > #6. But that has no actual effect on this year...

The thing is that people complain both when a tanking team with one of the worst records gets the #1 AND when a lower team in the lottery makes the jump (like Cleveland did a couple times). It's hard to address both things in one system.

I think it works the way it is. The worst team has a better chance at the #1 pick and immediate improvement, but is nowhere near a guarantee either. After all the whole point of bad teams getting the best picks is so that they have a decent chance at actually not staying bad.

 

[slinslin]

The lottery itself is supposed to be a remedy for tanking. And it actually does a pretty good job, as the team with the worst record has received the #1 pick less than 20% of the time.

Meanwhile the team with the second-worst record has gotten the #1 pick 9% of the time.

Third-worst, about 22% of the time.
Fourth-worst, about 9%.
Fifth-worst, about 16%.
Sixth-worst, 12.5%.
Seventh-worst, about 3%.
Eighth-worst, about 3%.
Ninth-worst, about 6%.
Tenth-worst, 0%.
Eleventh-worst, about 3%.

If we're looking at historical results, it seems likely that New Jersey>Boston won't get the #1 pick, but has a good chance at #2. After that, who's to say? Historically the best spots in the reverse standings have been #3 > #1 > #5 > #6. But that has no actual effect on this year...

The thing is that people complain both when a tanking team with one of the worst records gets the #1 AND when a lower team in the lottery makes the jump (like Cleveland did a couple times). It's hard to address both things in one system.

It is wrong to think about it like that.

The %s for each pick are fixed. You can look them up. The historic results mean nothing.

If you roll a 6 sided dice 10 times and you roll 6 5 times, 4 3times and 2 2times, the chances to roll each result is still 100/6 % and not 50% for 6, 30% for 4 and 20% for 2.

 

[chickenhead]

It is wrong to think about it like that.

The %s for each pick are fixed. You can look them up. The historic results mean nothing.

If you roll a 6 sided dice 10 times and you roll 6 5 times, 4 3times and 2 2times, the chances to roll each result is still 100/6 % and not 50% for 6, 30% for 4 and 20% for 2.

Uh, yeah, I get it - that's why I said "But that has no actual effect on this year..." my post was about perception and why people complain.

 

[chickenhead]

What the historical data actually does is demonstrate that the probabilities are exactly that. We're only in the fourth decade of the lottery: maybe if it ran for 1000 years in the same format, the historical results would be more in line with probability – e.g. the worst record gets the #1 pick about a quarter of the time. But in another universe maybe the worst record did get the first pick every year for the first 32 years...

Then there's the simple fact that order drafted doesn't equal best eventual player, or even best filler of need for each team. I just hope that the Suns get the highest pick they can, are able to draft the player #1 on their draft board – and be right.

 

[Mainstreet]

An idea that I'm not supporting, but years ago I thought that the worst teams in the league could have a playoff for the #1 pick in the draft. The winner gets the first pick in the draft and so on. The playoff would be limited to a small number of teams like the worst two to four teams but at least a team would have to secure the pick by winning. The other non-playoff teams would draft according to record.

 

[devilalum]

B Knight needs to be promoted to "Tank Comander."

from phone

 

[BC867]

B Knight is "TheTank Comander."

from phone

Unless he misses the mission of the Arizona National Guard Armor Division, which he has. (I know, there is no Arizona Armor Division.)

'Brings back my memory of being in the Jersey Blues -- the N.J. 50th Armor Division. Of course my time in the Guards were spent as Company Clerk, then Spec5 supervisor of Payroll & Personnel. I never saw the inside of a "tank".

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

An idea that I'm not supporting, but years ago I thought that the worst teams in the league could have a playoff for the #1 pick in the draft. The winner gets the first pick in the draft and so on. The playoff would be limited to a small number of teams like the worst two to four teams but at least a team would have to secure the pick by winning. The other non-playoff teams would draft according to record.

While this would be entertaining it kind of goes against the whole point of the lottery to begin with. The worst teams need the highest picks. Sometimes the gap between the worst team and the 2nd to 4th worst team can be very large and thus it would make no sense because the worst team would basically be guaranteed a worse pick.

 

[Mainstreet]

While this would be entertaining it kind of goes against the whole point of the lottery to begin with. The worst teams need the highest picks. Sometimes the gap between the worst team and the 2nd to 4th worst team can be very large and thus it would make no sense because the worst team would basically be guaranteed a worse pick.

There is no guarantee the worst team gets the first pick as it stands right now.

Interesting enough the Celtics own the first pick in the draft.

I think rotating the first round pick around all NBA teams is the fairest way with the stipulation it can't be traded for at least one season. However, I doubt this gets traction until NBA owners are ready to approve something like this.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

There is no guarantee the worst team gets the first pick as it stands right now.

Interesting enough the Celtics own the first pick in the draft.

I think rotating the first round pick around all NBA teams is the fairest way with the stipulation it can't be traded for at least one season. However, I doubt this gets traction until NBA owners are ready to approve something like this.

Sure there is no guarantee, but they at least have a good shot at it. In that scenario of say a 4 team playoff the worst team in the league would just about be guaranteed the 4th pick or would be most likely to get that pick.

 

[Mainstreet]

Sure there is no guarantee, but they at least have a good shot at it. In that scenario of say a 4 team playoff the worst team in the league would just about be guaranteed the 4th pick or would be most likely to get that pick.

I can see this, but worst team can mean other things as well such as key injuries, poor ownership and bad coaching. It's not an easy problem to solve but the lottery may be the best system under present circumstances.

 

[Yuma]

Unless he misses the mission of the Arizona National Guard Armor Division, which he has. (I know, there is no Arizona Armor Division.)

'Brings back my memory of being in the Jersey Blues -- the N.J. 50th Armor Division. Of course my time in the Guards were spent as Company Clerk, then Spec5 supervisor of Payroll & Personnel. I never saw the inside of a "tank".

I was never in the military, but I fell into the hatch of an Abrahm's tank once, it was an out of control fall, and somehow I ended up unscathed. I still do not know to this day how I did not end up seriously hurt or dead. Tanks are not fun environments. It looks better on TV than it is in real life. I take my hat off to any man who has been in a tank company. That, and I have been in a couple submarines, and people are very mislead about the roominess you see in movies and TV

 

[Mainstreet]

Tonight the 76ers blow out Dallas and the Pelicans beat the Rockets with Cousins sitting out.

I wonder if the Pelicans roster could be making a statement.

 

[Yuma]

Suns Strokes: Suns fall to Magic, go winless on three-game homestand!!!

2.5 game lead for third place!!!!!

 

[pokerface]

This tank is turning into a masterpiece. My ONLY regret is the Lakers passing us. But other than that I'm very pleased right now because a week ago it was panic city. I thought we were going to drop like a stone and now things have very much stabelized in our favor. Our tank is rolling over the competition!

Plus Orlando and the Sixers are playing each other next week AND they both have to play Brooklyn TWICE.

 

[GatorAZ]

Philly stuns Boston!

 

[pokerface]

Wow Philly beat Boston today... nice.

Plus today we face Detroit without Booker in the lineup.

 

[pokerface]

Philly stuns Boston!

Gator you keep beating me out with the news... Haha

 

[hsandhu]

If we lose to the pistons and orlando wins tomorrow, I feel pretty confident in the 3 spot. We'll be 4 wins behind them.

Hell, with all our shutdowns and injuries we might of had a shot at the 2 spot, but

1. idiot lebron sat out the clippers game instead of the lakers game.
2. The lakers won't give up that 2 spot for anything, magic will play a game before they do and I can't blame them. The draft is literally all or nothing for them

 

[Yuma]

Well, I am pretty sure the Cavs could rest their big 3 and STILL beat the Lakers, so .....

 

[pokerface]

Ahh... Nothing like a well executed tank.

We might not catch the Lakers but they have to be nervous with us nipping at their heals.

 

[Mainstreet]

Wow Philly beat Boston today... nice.

Plus today we face Detroit without Booker in the lineup.

I still trying to digest the 76ers win. Plus Dallas wins as well.