1 – I am a fan. I have the privilege that I don’t have to think for one second about the draft for the first week or so of free agency, so in this post I can just try to fill the holes with veterans only. But of course, I have no idea who will get tagged – and I am not going to guess, simply because it would be nothing but exactly a guess - but I thought it would be a good idea to send out this post in relatively good time before the market opens up.
2 – It has been hard not to notice how many on this board is calling for Keim’s departure, and I can pretty much guarantee that phenomenon will not decrease as we get deeper into the offseason. So, I really, really, really would like someone to explain to me why they want to set the team back to zero again? We all know that Kingsbury and Kyler Murray separately were - and are – big and unconventional chances, and that they are certainly not for every personnel guy, and together? Well, talk about a gamble. Keim made that gamble. If they bring in a new general manager, who is to say that he want to make that gamble as well? And if they make sure they hire a general manager, who do want to go with those two, do you really want a potential yes-man as general manager?
So, I ask again: why do people keep wanting to set the team back to where they were before last season – only without a general manager as well.
3 – Please forget everything about salary cap. It does not matter how much available cap space the Cardinals have, or how much of it a new player will chew up. It has been this way for many years, but now it will be confirmed in the new collective bargaining agreement. I think I need to explain it again, but I must warn you that it can be a bit boring:
Before the current CBA was put into place in 2011, the teams worked with a so-called “hard cap.” That meant that the salary cap was relatively stable, as it did not increase much every year. At that time it was highly important to structure contracts correctly, and all the time have strategic plans for right now as well as several years down the road.
From 2011 and until now, the teams has worked with a “soft cap”, which has every year increased significantly, to the point where almost every team has way more cap room than they can use.
The cold numbers is that the salary cap will rise for the 7th straight years – with a rise of about 5-6% from last year, though strong rumors also says that the salary cap will be all the way up to about 200 million this year. The salary cap has increased roughly 65% in the last five years. Or we can take the maybe easier manageable numbers that the salary cap has risen from 120.6 million in 2012 to 188.2 million last year. And here is an interesting nugget: rumor has it there will be a massive rise to about 240 million next year.
Here is another interesting nugget: let us say the salary cap for this year will be 200 million. Many don’t know that there is a salary floor, just as there is a salary cap, and it require team’s to spend at least 89% of their salary cap each year. For the Cardinals that means that they need to spend 178 million, and right now they are spending about 158.5 million of their available salary cap. In other words, if they are not to be financially penalized, before next year they have to spend 20 million more of their collective cap room.
This increase are why we are seeing huge deals to mediocre players. There are simply “too much” cap room.
Since the “soft cap” will continue into the new CBA, the salary cap will continue to rise, and that means that player contracts can be constructed in all kinds of ways so that cap room will never be an issue. Just a small example is that there is no danger in pushing money on to the next years.
The salary cap cannot be ignored, but there is no incentive at all to spend any worry on it. It simply does not matter.
One slightly relevant rule, though, and this is only if they don’t agree on a new CBA before free agency opens up, there are special rules in the last year of the current CBA, and one rule is that a player contract cannot rise with more than 30% in each of the three first years. That means, for example, that if a player gets a contract with a 2020 salary of 10 million, then his salary can maximum be 13 million the next year, then 16 million and 19 million. Like what I mentioned above, the is not a problem. It is just something that affects the salary cap.
Now, I am absolutely sure you will hear Keim and others mention it several times as reasons why they did not go after X or Y player, but as you can see, he is simply arguing against logic. My best guess is that he will do it to protect himself from criticism because of what he don’t do during the offseason. For example, if there is a player, with a huge reputation, at a position of need, all of us might hope for Keim to sign him, but when he don’t, he can blame it on the salary cap because he can get away with it, since many people do not know what I have explained.
By the way, that is also why I will not mention any contract-ideas in this post. They can construct them however they want, and I will not care.
4 – So, because of what I just mentioned, it is not because of the salary cap that Keim calls it “out of the question” to release David Johnson. But if I remember the interview correct, he does not say anything about the salary cap, but just that he talks about how the contract is structured? If so, then he is probably right that it is out of the question since the teams owes him a huge amount of real money, and I guess they want some return on that.
5 – I would re-sign Kenyan Drake tomorrow. Not to a massive deal, but to a team-friendly, and simply because he has proven to be great in Kingsbury’s system. I totally understand the notion that it is easy to find capable runningbacks – and to an extent, I fully agree – but we already know that Drake is good, so why risk anything? Now, from Drake’s perspective it is obviously much better to wait and see if someone offer him a bigger deal.
I would also bring back Brett Hundley, Pharoh Cooper. Charles Clay, Rodney Gunter, Cassius Marsh. Every other free agent could leave for all I care.
6 – If I am in charge, I am focusing heavily on the trenches.
7 – Trade? Well, I am not selling a top 10 pick, but maybe with another payment.
8 – I am absolutely thrilled they brought back Humphries. He still has room to work with potential-wise, and he is already at least above average. Besides, you don’t need a great offensive line to win. You “just” need a serviceable one to be effective.
9 – Back in the 2015 draft there were chatter that Steve Keim wanted edge rusher Bud Dupree. He got drafted by the Steelers two spots ahead of the Cards, but now he might be a free agent, and the Cards has a need at edge rusher. Personnel guys don’t forget players, and especially not such a short time after they targeted them. Maybe the reports back then were right, and Keim goes after Dupree this time?
10 – Defensive tackles Chris Jones (Chiefs), Jordan Phillips (Bills, and maybe the best D-lineman nobody has heard about), Shelby Harris (Broncos), Derek Wolfe (Broncos) and Ethan Westbrook (free agent) is some of my favorites. And if the rumors are true, and the Jags does cut Calais Campbell, then you don’t even think about getting cute, but sign him the next hour.
11 – Offensive tackles Jack Conklin (Titans), Daryl Williams (Panthers) Hapa-yadda Vaitai (Eagles), and offensive guards Joe Thuney (Patriots) and Connor McGovern (Brocos) are my biggest favorites.
12 – Other players I like:
Wide receiver Amari Cooper – Cowboys.
Inside linebacker Nick Kwiatkowski – Bears.
Tight end Austin Hooper – Falcons.
Inside linebacker Joe Schobert – Browns.
13 – If I was forced to make a preferred list (like I am doing to myself right now), it would go:
1 – Amari Cooper.
2 – Chris Jones.
3 – Joe Thuney.
4 – Bud Dupree.
5 – Jack Conklin.
14 – Mr. Keim, I am writing to you to ask if you could please extend Patrick Peterson.
This is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. This is a player that allows you to do so much various stuff on defense. This is a player who came on very strong last season after many people had wanted to trade him. This is a superstar who – for some unknown reasons – are actually underrated.
15 – Brentson Buckner back, is that cool or what? I think we were all surprised when they kept defensive line coach Chris Achuff from Wilks’ staff, but I also think Buckner has created good results everywhere he has been as a coach. And also I just like him.
2 – It has been hard not to notice how many on this board is calling for Keim’s departure, and I can pretty much guarantee that phenomenon will not decrease as we get deeper into the offseason. So, I really, really, really would like someone to explain to me why they want to set the team back to zero again? We all know that Kingsbury and Kyler Murray separately were - and are – big and unconventional chances, and that they are certainly not for every personnel guy, and together? Well, talk about a gamble. Keim made that gamble. If they bring in a new general manager, who is to say that he want to make that gamble as well? And if they make sure they hire a general manager, who do want to go with those two, do you really want a potential yes-man as general manager?
So, I ask again: why do people keep wanting to set the team back to where they were before last season – only without a general manager as well.
3 – Please forget everything about salary cap. It does not matter how much available cap space the Cardinals have, or how much of it a new player will chew up. It has been this way for many years, but now it will be confirmed in the new collective bargaining agreement. I think I need to explain it again, but I must warn you that it can be a bit boring:
Before the current CBA was put into place in 2011, the teams worked with a so-called “hard cap.” That meant that the salary cap was relatively stable, as it did not increase much every year. At that time it was highly important to structure contracts correctly, and all the time have strategic plans for right now as well as several years down the road.
From 2011 and until now, the teams has worked with a “soft cap”, which has every year increased significantly, to the point where almost every team has way more cap room than they can use.
The cold numbers is that the salary cap will rise for the 7th straight years – with a rise of about 5-6% from last year, though strong rumors also says that the salary cap will be all the way up to about 200 million this year. The salary cap has increased roughly 65% in the last five years. Or we can take the maybe easier manageable numbers that the salary cap has risen from 120.6 million in 2012 to 188.2 million last year. And here is an interesting nugget: rumor has it there will be a massive rise to about 240 million next year.
Here is another interesting nugget: let us say the salary cap for this year will be 200 million. Many don’t know that there is a salary floor, just as there is a salary cap, and it require team’s to spend at least 89% of their salary cap each year. For the Cardinals that means that they need to spend 178 million, and right now they are spending about 158.5 million of their available salary cap. In other words, if they are not to be financially penalized, before next year they have to spend 20 million more of their collective cap room.
This increase are why we are seeing huge deals to mediocre players. There are simply “too much” cap room.
Since the “soft cap” will continue into the new CBA, the salary cap will continue to rise, and that means that player contracts can be constructed in all kinds of ways so that cap room will never be an issue. Just a small example is that there is no danger in pushing money on to the next years.
The salary cap cannot be ignored, but there is no incentive at all to spend any worry on it. It simply does not matter.
One slightly relevant rule, though, and this is only if they don’t agree on a new CBA before free agency opens up, there are special rules in the last year of the current CBA, and one rule is that a player contract cannot rise with more than 30% in each of the three first years. That means, for example, that if a player gets a contract with a 2020 salary of 10 million, then his salary can maximum be 13 million the next year, then 16 million and 19 million. Like what I mentioned above, the is not a problem. It is just something that affects the salary cap.
Now, I am absolutely sure you will hear Keim and others mention it several times as reasons why they did not go after X or Y player, but as you can see, he is simply arguing against logic. My best guess is that he will do it to protect himself from criticism because of what he don’t do during the offseason. For example, if there is a player, with a huge reputation, at a position of need, all of us might hope for Keim to sign him, but when he don’t, he can blame it on the salary cap because he can get away with it, since many people do not know what I have explained.
By the way, that is also why I will not mention any contract-ideas in this post. They can construct them however they want, and I will not care.
4 – So, because of what I just mentioned, it is not because of the salary cap that Keim calls it “out of the question” to release David Johnson. But if I remember the interview correct, he does not say anything about the salary cap, but just that he talks about how the contract is structured? If so, then he is probably right that it is out of the question since the teams owes him a huge amount of real money, and I guess they want some return on that.
5 – I would re-sign Kenyan Drake tomorrow. Not to a massive deal, but to a team-friendly, and simply because he has proven to be great in Kingsbury’s system. I totally understand the notion that it is easy to find capable runningbacks – and to an extent, I fully agree – but we already know that Drake is good, so why risk anything? Now, from Drake’s perspective it is obviously much better to wait and see if someone offer him a bigger deal.
I would also bring back Brett Hundley, Pharoh Cooper. Charles Clay, Rodney Gunter, Cassius Marsh. Every other free agent could leave for all I care.
6 – If I am in charge, I am focusing heavily on the trenches.
7 – Trade? Well, I am not selling a top 10 pick, but maybe with another payment.
8 – I am absolutely thrilled they brought back Humphries. He still has room to work with potential-wise, and he is already at least above average. Besides, you don’t need a great offensive line to win. You “just” need a serviceable one to be effective.
9 – Back in the 2015 draft there were chatter that Steve Keim wanted edge rusher Bud Dupree. He got drafted by the Steelers two spots ahead of the Cards, but now he might be a free agent, and the Cards has a need at edge rusher. Personnel guys don’t forget players, and especially not such a short time after they targeted them. Maybe the reports back then were right, and Keim goes after Dupree this time?
10 – Defensive tackles Chris Jones (Chiefs), Jordan Phillips (Bills, and maybe the best D-lineman nobody has heard about), Shelby Harris (Broncos), Derek Wolfe (Broncos) and Ethan Westbrook (free agent) is some of my favorites. And if the rumors are true, and the Jags does cut Calais Campbell, then you don’t even think about getting cute, but sign him the next hour.
11 – Offensive tackles Jack Conklin (Titans), Daryl Williams (Panthers) Hapa-yadda Vaitai (Eagles), and offensive guards Joe Thuney (Patriots) and Connor McGovern (Brocos) are my biggest favorites.
12 – Other players I like:
Wide receiver Amari Cooper – Cowboys.
Inside linebacker Nick Kwiatkowski – Bears.
Tight end Austin Hooper – Falcons.
Inside linebacker Joe Schobert – Browns.
13 – If I was forced to make a preferred list (like I am doing to myself right now), it would go:
1 – Amari Cooper.
2 – Chris Jones.
3 – Joe Thuney.
4 – Bud Dupree.
5 – Jack Conklin.
14 – Mr. Keim, I am writing to you to ask if you could please extend Patrick Peterson.
This is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. This is a player that allows you to do so much various stuff on defense. This is a player who came on very strong last season after many people had wanted to trade him. This is a superstar who – for some unknown reasons – are actually underrated.
15 – Brentson Buckner back, is that cool or what? I think we were all surprised when they kept defensive line coach Chris Achuff from Wilks’ staff, but I also think Buckner has created good results everywhere he has been as a coach. And also I just like him.
