Great article by Boston Gammons on past draft results. It's pretty long but worth the read. It's amazing how many top-10 picks don't ever sniff making the bigs....
Uncovering draft gems
No one
knows what
Andrew Miller will do in the major leagues, or
Luke Hochevar,
Brad Lincoln or
Evan Longoria for that matter. Maybe Miller will become the next
C.C. Sabathia or
Randy Johnson, Hochevar the next
Jake Peavy.
But while Miller and Hochevar appear to be potential front-end starting pitchers and the prodigies of Tuesday's draft that is considered the weakest in six years, there are no guarantees.
Brien Taylor and
Todd Van Poppel were sure things. So were
Paul Wilson and
Darren Dreifort.
Remember how the Twins were ridiculed in 2001 for taking
Joe Mauer with the first pick instead of
Mark Prior? Five years later, try to see if the Twins will make that trade, as despite a knee injury and the eventual possibility of a move to third base, Mauer is a rising star, while Prior has suffered from the modern pitcher's real world of inexplicable injuries. And since making his Cubs debut on May 22, 2002, Prior is 60th in the majors in wins with 41.
Therein lies Rule No. 1 of baseball draft watching:
Nothing is predictable. Hey,
David Wright lasted until the second round.
Grady Sizemore until the third. The Dodgers have some of the best young players in the game, and
Matt Kemp was a sixth rounder,
Andy LaRoche a 39th-round pick,
Russell Martin the 17th round.
Just go through history. In 1990, the consensus was that Van Poppel was far and away the best player on the board. Then-Braves GM
Bobby Cox negotiated with Van Poppel, and in the midst of it didn't like what he saw in the kid's eyes. Cox got up, flew to Jacksonville and made a pre-draft deal with a young shortstop. For weeks after the draft, Cox was ridiculed by scouts, draftniks and some media for making the cheap choice.
The shortstop?
Chipper Jones, arguably bound for Cooperstown. Van Poppel was 36-46, 5.50 for his career.
Oakland that year had what was called the greatest pitching draft ever. Their names? Van Poppel,
Kirk Dressendorfer,
Don Peters,
Dave Zancanaro,
Curtis Shaw,
Chaon Garland. Dressendorfer was the only one other than Van Poppel who ever made it to the show, and he was 3-3 before injuries cut short his career. Area scout
J.P. Ricciardi took
Tanyon Sturtze in the 23rd round, and he turned out to be their best out of the draft.
In '91, the first eight picks were Taylor,
Mike Kelly,
David McCarty,
Dmitri Young,
Ken Henderson,
John Burke and
Joe Vitiello. In '92, they were
Phil Nevin,
Paul Shuey,
B.J. Wallace,
Jeffrey Hammonds,
Chad Mottola and -- yeah --
Derek Jeter. In '93, there were many voices in the Mariners organization that preferred the college pitching star named
Darren Dreifort over
Alex Rodriguez, and when Seattle took A-Rod the next five picks were all college pitchers: Dreifort,
Brian Anderson,
Wayne Gomes,
Jeff Granger and
Steve Soderstrom.
Then there was 1994, when
Nomar Garciaparra,
Paul Konerko and
Jason Varitek were taken in succession, 12th, 13th and 14th.
Paul Wilson,
Ben Grieve,
Dustin Hermanson,
Antoine Williamson,
Josh Booty,
McKay Christensen and
Doug Million were the first seven; Booty did make it to the NFL.
Matt Anderson was the first pick in the country in '97.
Josh Hamilton was No. 1 in '99, followed by
Josh Beckett, then
Eric Munson,
Corey Myers,
B.J. Garbe,
Josh Girdley,
Kyle Snyder and
Bobby Bradley.
And, finally, there was the draft often compared to what will unfurl Tuesday -- 2000, when
Adrian Gonzalez,
Adam Johnson,
Luis Montanez,
Mike Stodolka,
Justin Wayne,
Rocco Baldelli,
Matt Harrington,
Matt Wheatland,
Mark Phillips and
Joe Torrez were the first ten. Twenty of the 30 players in the first round have never sniffed the big leagues, but
Chase Utley did go at 25. But look down the list: The eighth round provided
Dontrelle Willis and
Brandon Webb, Sizemore and
Cliff Lee went in the third and fourth rounds to Montreal, the A's got
Rich Harden in the 17th and the Rockies got
Garrett Atkins in five and
Brad Hawpe in 11.
You get the idea. This table below, showing where last year's all-stars came from, further makes the point that non-drafted players are principally international signings.
Where 2005 All-Stars
Were DraftedNon-drafted 20 1st round 14 2nd round 6 3rd round 2 4th round 2 5th round 1 6th round 1 8th round 2 9th round 1 10th round 2 25th round 2
One each round as follows: 13, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 39, 62
The ideal equation in development is to get two quality players each year out of the draft, two players internationally and perhaps use professional scouting to steal one player from another organization.
Rule No. 2: Catching is the toughest commodity to find
One scouting director claims that while some clubs will overdraft a catcher out of desperate need, "none of the catchers in this draft are much better than second or third rounders." That includes Pepperdine's
Chad Tracy, who comes with extraordinary bloodlines as Jim's son, as well as high schoolers
Max Sapp of Windermere, Fla., and
Hank Conger of Huntington Beach, Calif. "We liked Luis Esposito (signed by Boston out of St. Pete J.C. as a draft and follow) better than almost any of them," says a scouting director. "What most all of us are doing is looking at conversion candidates. The Dodgers took [Russell] Martin, a second baseman in junior college, in the 17th round, converted him from third base and he might be the best young catcher in the National League.
Paul Lo Duca and
Michael Barrett were converted guys."
Interestingly, one National League team is looking at body types for conversion catchers. "Look at the mobility and actual range Martin shows, or look at Mauer and
Brad Ausmus and it leads us to believe that the leaner, quicker guys -- if they have the arm and hands -- are best-suited for the position." Or check how
Jason Varitek continually has worked to increase his mobility in his 30s.
There was a time when the notion that most of the best catchers would eventually come out of Latin America. But now that
Pudge Rodriguez is winding down his career, the strength out of Puerto Rico comes from the Molina family; Venezuela does provide
Victor Martinez and
Ramon Hernandez, but as we saw at the World Baseball Classic, the best catcher from the Dominican Republic is
Alberto Castillo. Where The Starting 30 Catchers Came From1st round Mike Lieberthal, Michael Barrett*, Jason Kendall, Joe Mauer, Jason Varitek 2nd Brian McCann 3rd A.J. Pierzynski 4th Yadier Molina 5th Brian Schneider, Jason LaRue, Danny Ardoin 7th John Buck 8th Mike Matheny 9th Toby Hall 17th Russell Martin**, Mike Napoli, Johnny Estrada 20th Damian Miller 24th Jorge Posada 25th Paul Lo Duca** 48th Brad Ausmus 62nd Mike Piazza*** Undrafted Pudge Rodriguez, Bengie Molina, Miguel Olivo, Ronny Paulino, Kenji Johjima, Rod Barajas, Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez *Drafted as SS
**Drafted as 3B
***Drafted as 1B
• From 1984 to 2004, 33 different catchers were selected in the first round (
Charles Johnson and Varitek each were selected twice).
• Of those 33, six turned out to catch 130 games in a major-league season:
Craig Biggio, Johnson,
Dan Wilson,
Mike Lieberthal,
Jason Kendall,
Mauer.
• Thirteen never caught in a major-league game.
Rule No. 3: The college vs. HS debate is fading fast
In case you missed it last June, the A's and Red Sox were in the high school ranks in the sandwich and second rounds. Don't be surprised if Toronto takes Washington HS OF
Travis Snyder with the 14th pick, and Boston uses 27 and 28 for a couple of high schoolers like South Carolina OF
Jason Place and Conway, N.H., LHP
Jeff Locke, who listed playing for the Red Sox as his ambition in his high school yearbook.
"Moneyball" became an obsession for advocates on both sides of the debate. Out of that 2002 Oakland draft came two very good first rounders,
Nick Swisher and
Joe Blanton. Supplemental first rounder
Mark Teahen and third rounder
Bill Murphy were traded for major-league players. Now, if they had just signed 40th-round pick
Jonathan Papelbon ...
This draft has a lot of college pitching, but really only three college position players may go in the first 20 picks: Long Beach State SS-3B-2B
Evan Longoria, Texas CF
Drew Stubbs and Wake Forest 3B-2B
Matt Antonelli.
Some teams have traditionally gone with high school players. Since
Logan White was hired by
Dan Evans to rebuild the Dodgers' system, he has stuck with high schoolers, and this year will take Dallas HS lefty
Clayton Kershaw if he is there, if not, then probably South Boston (Va.) HS right-hander
Jeremy Jeffress. Atlanta's
Roy Clark has been a high school advocate unless one counts
Mark DeRosa -- the last everyday college player drafted and developed by the Braves. David Justice was picked in the fourth round in 1985.
Rule No. 4: Beware the Scott Boras Factor
Boras takes the draft seriously, and if a player does what he's advised, he will sit out.
Mike Pelfrey sat until the winter, and probably isn't in New York yet because of the time he missed.
Hochevar sat, got in the middle of an agent war, and this spring pitched in Fort Worth (with
Matt Harrington, who in 2000 turned down $4.1M, then in 2001 turned down $1M and never signed) and is back in this draft.
"Actually, Hochevar may cost less than [Andrew] Miller," says one GM. "All Scott has to do is get more than the $2.9M the Dodgers were willing to give Hochevar if he left Boras. "He's thrown the ball very well. The question is whether one wants to deal with Scott. In most cases, when you draft a Boras client, his loyalty is to Scott more than the team so you never fully have him. That said, his clients are well-serviced."
Boras has a number of quality players in this draft: Hochevar, Missouri RHP
Max Scherzer, Florida 1B
Matt LaPorta, Mississippi 3B
Chris Coghlan, USC RHP
Ian Kennedy and others.
Some teams won't deal with Boras because the process can be drawn out. "Hochevar won't fall far," says a GM. "The Tigers (at 6), Rangers (12) and Cubs (13) aren't all going to pass. He can be in the big leagues in a hurry."
Rule No. 5: Commissioner's office tries to regulate bonuses
The Mets, who do not have a first-round pick, were expected to sign
Pedro Beato, whom they drafted last June and watched at St. Pete Junior College, where he developed into what Baseball America lists as the 13th-best prospect in the draft. However, a recent front-office hiring from the commissioner's office convinced management to stick to the commissioner's office slot of $800,000, and so they missed out on signing a legitimate first rounder for what his agents insist would have been in the $1-1.2M range. When Stubbs was coming out of high school, the Astros' scouting department had a deal done with him, but owner
Drayton McLane insisted they follow the commissioner's office mandate and the deal was undone.
However, there are many teams who will do what's best for their organization and whose owner will take the telephone call from Bud Selig and his crew. Red Sox owner
John Henry refused to buckle on signing
Jon Lester,
Mike Rozier and
Craig Hansen despite pressure from New York.
Rule No. 6: This year's first round is confusing
Despite rumors that Miller and agent Mark Rogers want "Mark Prior money," the Royals are expected to take the advice of former GM
Allard Baird and select the UNC left-hander. He is a great athlete (he ran a 6.6 60 and is a good hooper), 6-7, of high character, and developing his strength and command. Going into Friday's regional start against Maine, Miller had allowed four extra-base hits in 95 2/3 innings. If the Royals pass and decide on either Hochevar or Houston right-handed pitcher
Brad Lincoln -- a natural fit for the National League because he is an exceptional hitter who had the best power of any player in the Cape League last summer -- then the Rockies have pretty much decided they will take Miller.
If Miller is No. 1, then Colorado is leaning towards Longoria, whom they worked out at second base this week, with continued thoughts about Lincoln, Cal RHP
Brandon Morrow and Stanford's
Greg Reynolds. Tampa Bay has the third pick and wants Longoria, but may have to settle on Lincoln. Hochevar, Reynolds, Washington's small but filthy
Tim Lincecum (a potential big-league reliever by September),
Joba Chamberlain, Scherzer and UNC's
Daniel Bard are all likely to go in the first half of the first round.
There was a time when USC's Kennedy could have gone in the top five, but his season faded. That also happened to Oregon State's
Dallas Buck, who two summers ago in Falmouth on the Cape looked like he was the next
Kevin Brown, only to lose 5-7 MPH. "The question in cases like those are whether it's junioritis or burnout," says one GM. "Some of these kids pitch so much their first two years between college and the summer that they get worn out. A good example was Jason Young. He was Stanford's Friday night starter as a freshman and sophomore, pitched for Team USA those two summers, and fell as a junior. The Rockies signed him and his stuff never came back."
There is no better place to prepare for this draft than
Baseball America's Web site, the finest of its kind in the business. By Monday, they will have most of the first round laid out, no small task when one looks back at history.
Some of us love scouring for sons of big leaguers, like Houston HS RHP
Kyle Drabek and Tracy. Or look for as many as seven players selected from Franklin Pierce College in New Hampshire, the highest being 3B
Garrett Olson from Norway, Maine, home of the Norway-South Paris Twins of the Pine Tree League. Or Shrewsbury, N.J., OF
Ryan Kalish, a Virginia signee whose father went to Brookline (Mass.) HS with Theo Epstein's cousin.
Years from now, Olson might be hitting 30 home runs in the big leagues, and half of those big college pitchers are hurt.
Hey, in 1982, there were ten pitchers selected before the Red Sox made their selection.
Roger Clemens. And they picked Clemens only because the Expos took their preference, Michigan RHP
Rich Stoll, right in front of them.
