2011 ASU wins prediction thread

[Gaddabout]

This place is pretty dead. Curious where opinion rests in this group. Lots of optimism -- some warranted, some not -- beyond this board.

 

[Tyler]

I say 8-9 wins but I picked 9. Fairly friendly schedule, top flight D, offense that can click for sure with Oz at the helm, solid stable of backs. Might just be the homer in me but thats how I see it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Undefeated, National Championship. But that's just the realist in me.

Steve

 

[azmike74]

I'm optimistic but I have concerns:
QB?
How much is the loss of Bolden going to hurt?
Are other players anti Erickson enough to hurt the team?

My knowledge of the team is very low but I think they win 8. I don't expect as much out of Brock as others do and I honestly have no idea what the offense as a whole will bring next year.

 

[Tyler]

I'm optimistic but I have concerns:
QB?
How much is the loss of Bolden going to hurt?
Are other players anti Erickson enough to hurt the team?

My knowledge of the team is very low but I think they win 8. I don't expect as much out of Brock as others do and I honestly have no idea what the offense as a whole will bring next year.

The offense is a HUGE question mark. There are playmakers at every position, a possible 1k yard rusher in Cameron Marshall, and guys that when/if they catch the ball are threats. Mike Willie, Aaron Pflugrad, Gerrell Robinson and crew can have big years if the OL gives Brock time to make it happen. I really feel that the Devils are poised for a big year IF everything comes together.

 

[Gaddabout]

A couple of thoughts based on what's been said so far:

- I think Oz can be a stellar QB but I don't think anyone makes the leap from "oops" to "wow" in one season. I think he'll tear it up against the lesser teams and have some real head-scratching moments against better defenses and more complicated defensive schemes.

- I think Cam Marshall gets his 1,000 yards this season. The offensive line looks very strong to me, and even though I HATE this offensive scheme, defenses should get spread out enough he'll find a lot of daylight to run to.

- The receivers are just OK, but it's a lot of OK. I like TJ Simpson, but he wasn't unreplaceable. The depth chart is full of B+ and B- type receivers. No A's but I can't think of a C, either.

- The loss of Brooks is going to hurt a little. He took enough plays off during last season that his production isn't totally unreplaceable. It's when ASU plays against a good set of tackles that he's going to be missed, because outside of Onyeali, they don't really have anyone who can match up. Brooks had good sizes and speed to play at this level. Even when he took plays off, he was never manhandled. That's a problem because ...

- The loss of Bolden is going to really hurt. The safeties continue to be unit full of wasted talent, though I think Darby's going to shore up a lot of problems there. The only problem is I think Darby will get moved back to corner because there's a huge lack of ability there after Irabor ... and Irabor's health is a question mark. If anything keeps ASU from being a top-flight team, it will be this part of the defense.

- I think the combination of those last two things is going to add up to some problems with pass defense. Erickson wants Bray to dial up more blitzes this year, but I don't see how the secondary will allow him. And with the linebackers dropping back into Cover 4 75 percent of the time -- just like the past two seasons -- the pass rush may disappear at the wrong times ... like 3rd-and-long when you need a stop late in the game.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/asu/articles/asu-football-schedule-2011.html

ASU 2011 Schedule
Thurs. Sept. 1 UC Davis
Fri. Sept. 9 MISSOURI
Sat. Sept. 17 at Illinois
Sat. Sept. 24 USC
Sat. Oct. 1 OREGON STATE
Sat. Oct. 8 at Utah
Sat. Oct. 15 at Oregon
Sat. Oct. 22 Open date
Sat. Oct. 29 COLORADO
Sat. Nov. 5 at UCLA
Sat. Nov. 12 at Washington State
Sat., Nov. 19 ARIZONA
Fri. Nov. 25 CAL
Fri. Dec. 2 Pac-12 Championship (High seed hosts)

 

[Brian in Mesa]

I'm not a fan of Coach Dennis, but I'm a grad and a fan so with my homer-vision I say more than 9. With 14 possible games, I don't think 10 is too much of a stretch.

 

[devilalum]

They need a big win to gain confidence. If they beat Mizzou I say they win at least 10.

 

[Dback Jon]

Schedule is Favorable.

If things go right, 5-0 to open is not out of the question.

 

[Dback Jon]

And realistically, if Erickson CAN'T win 8 games this year, he needs to be gone

 

[Gaddabout]

And realistically, if Erickson CAN'T win 8 games this year, he needs to be gone

Well, it's on the agenda. Whether it's tabled or not, we'll see.

As a football geek who spends a lot of hours watching tape and talking to other coaches in the biz, I have great respect for Bray. I'd hate to see him go. I think Mazzone is an excellent teacher of QBs, though I think his love of the spread and inability to incorporate tight sets is his downfall -- makes him a one-back fraud in my eyes. The rest of the staff, including Erickson, whose inability to manage the clock is legendary, are suspect on gameday. I think Broussard and Bryce Erickson are strong recruiters, but I can live without them.

That said, this is their team now. They've recruited all the upperclassmen, all the returning starters. I have no excuses to offer them. I think 8 games is the margin Erickson needs to keep his job. Anything less and there will be an uprising like never before in Sun Devil football. Either that or the fanbase will achieve highs in apathy. Either way, we'll have a new coach in 2012.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Looks like an 8-9 win team to me. Most of the 10 win teams in recent Pac-10 history had an upper-echelon QB and I don't think Oz is that caliber of player. The RB situation is damn good though. I wonder how often Erickson wonders what might have been if he had kept Nick Foles.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Well, it's on the agenda. Whether it's tabled or not, we'll see.

As a football geek who spends a lot of hours watching tape and talking to other coaches in the biz, I have great respect for Bray. I'd hate to see him go. I think Mazzone is an excellent teacher of QBs, though I think his love of the spread and inability to incorporate tight sets is his downfall -- makes him a one-back fraud in my eyes. The rest of the staff, including Erickson, whose inability to manage the clock is legendary, are suspect on gameday. I think Broussard and Bryce Erickson are strong recruiters, but I can live without them.

That said, this is their team now. They've recruited all the upperclassmen, all the returning starters. I have no excuses to offer them. I think 8 games is the margin Erickson needs to keep his job. Anything less and there will be an uprising like never before in Sun Devil football. Either that or the fanbase will achieve highs in apathy. Either way, we'll have a new coach in 2012.

I'm surprised by this. Yes, we have some real question marks but anything less than 8 wins this season is a huge disappointment. IMO, Erickson needs to do more than just avoid a hugely disappointing season in order to keep his job. I think he needs at least 9 wins and probably 10 to avoid being fired.

Steve

 

[Gaddabout]

I'm surprised by this. Yes, we have some real question marks but anything less than 8 wins this season is a huge disappointment. IMO, Erickson needs to do more than just avoid a hugely disappointing season in order to keep his job. I think he needs at least 9 wins and probably 10 to avoid being fired.

If there were a single alumni with a lot of money left, I'd agree with you. But since ASU big dollar boosters are either tapped or in bankruptcy, most of the money to make a move (which would require hiring a new coach because a new coach = a lot more money than ASU is paying Erickson) will be coming from the general fund, I think 8 wins and a trip to Mediocre Bowl gives Erickson another 3-year deal.

ASU won't see a serious windfall from the Pac-12 until 2012.

 

[Gaddabout]

Looks like an 8-9 win team to me. Most of the 10 win teams in recent Pac-10 history had an upper-echelon QB and I don't think Oz is that caliber of player.

Based on what I saw at spring, no one in the conference has the upper hand on him on ability. He can make all the the throws, he's big, strong, and generally mobile. Mazzone has done wonders with his footwork which allowed him to take a huge leap forward in accuracy. Any hurdles he has to clear are strictly between the ears.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Based on what I saw at spring, no one in the conference has the upper hand on him on ability. He can make all the the throws, he's big, strong, and generally mobile. Mazzone has done wonders with his footwork which allowed him to take a huge leap forward in accuracy. Any hurdles he has to clear are strictly between the ears.

Glad to hear it, with the running game able to take some of the pressure off, that will help a ton as well.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Based on what I saw at spring, no one in the conference has the upper hand on him on ability. He can make all the the throws, he's big, strong, and generally mobile. Mazzone has done wonders with his footwork which allowed him to take a huge leap forward in accuracy. Any hurdles he has to clear are strictly between the ears.

As much ability as Luck or Barkley, two of the top 10 picks in next year's NFL draft? That's saying something.

 

[Gaddabout]

As much ability as Luck or Barkley, two of the top 10 picks in next year's NFL draft? That's saying something.

He obviously doesn't have their polish, but I think physically he's headed that direction. I usually think guys over 6-5 are too tall to play QB because footwork becomes an impossible challenge, but Osweiller has shown much improved balance in the pocket. He's learned how to throw with touch over the middle to clear linebackers. His deep ball now has a consistent arm motion and proper release point.

I was a doubter, but he turned me around. He's capable of doing the job. I'm not too worried about the position, though. If Oz falls apart for some reason, Bercovici looks every bit the part. It would just be a bad sign if Berc started as a freshman.

 

[HooverDam]

I voted 9+ just because the only game I think ASU for sure doesn't win is @ Oregon. Mizzou, @Illinois, USC, @Utah and UA are all potentially games ASU could drop, but I imagine they'll be favored or perhaps a push (the SC game could be a toss up). Most of those games they get at home and really my fear of the 2 midwest schools is more due to it being early season and an unfamiliarity with them, ASU should win those.

The loss of Omar Bolden is such a bummer though...I'm hoping he can make it back by maybe the @ Wazzu game or so. If he could play a little against a lesser team like Wazzu, then play against UA and Cal before going into a possible Conference title game that would be amazing.

ASU really should win the Pac 12 South and that would be terrific, though going to Palo Alto or Eugene for the Conference title game is going to be brutal. The realist in me hopes either Stanford or Oregon runs the table and goes to the National Title game, opening up a Rose Bowl* slot for ASU.

*or even Fiesta if it works out weird like it has some years. It may be fitting for ASU to end up in the Fiesta as it tries to rebuild since it was started for ASU anyhow.

 

[Nasser22]

I think this will be one of our best teams in quite a while. It really does hurt us that Bolden will miss at least the tougher half of or schedule, but I think all except the Oregon match-up are very winnable. I see us winning the South and coming out with a 10-3 record, possibly 11-2, but if nothing was learned from last year...7-5. How the players have matured over the last year will definitely factor in. Hopefully the recruiting can pick up with the success I expect, but my confidence in Coach Erickson is not too high right now in that regard.

Edit: The in-game experience and student involvement should improve in the upcoming year. I'm helping to work towards achieving that. It would be nice to see the home advantage at SDS reach its true potential.