2011 Draft Thread

[Covert Rain]

Gortat is the most overrated Suns player ever, seriously.

Actually that would be Lopez if we use your measuring stick. It's also ironic because he is the most undervalued using your measuring stick as well.

Also, as much as I like Gortat I would probably take Aldridge simply because he gets double digit rebounds often for me enough, is younger and does what I think is important which is play defense. However, that is a stupid point. For every Aldridge taken at that spot, I will show you a stiff taken early in the draft. You can't assume these guys will all amount to Aldridge.

Huge difference between trading for a proven guy and some NBA prospect. That is NOT the same thing. You want to talk straight up trade? Great.

 

[sunsfan88]

Yes but that won't happen. Your not going to pay this guy 1st rounder money to have him come off the bench. If you draft a guy this high and early it's because you want him to be your future starter.

What? Do you know how many guys who are drafted out of the top 10 come off the bench? I would go on a limb and say about 95% of them.

Btw I do agree with your initial point that we should not draft Jimmer because of him being a possible defensive liability.

 

[Covert Rain]

What? Do you know how many guys who are drafted out of the top 10 come off the bench? I would go on a limp and say about 95% of them.

Btw I do agree with your initial point that we should not draft Jimmer because of him being a possible defensive liability.

I feel sorry for your "limp". Please don't go out on it....it might make is worse.

I am sure many guys but what I should have said is eventual starter. I bet most teams don't draft at #13 and say...this guys will be a career bench player. I would say that is still early enough that you anticipate getting a starter. Especially in years where the draft is deep I bet teams feel in the top 20 they can find an eventual starter.

The Suns are a perfect example. Lopez and Dragic were drafted outside of #10 did come off the bench but were drafted as our future. One eventually started and the other was probably suppose to be starting by this year or next.

 

[Errntknght]

This site has the outcome of draft picks 1-60 for the 20 years 1989 through 2008: http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Pick 13 was lucky in that section of history but smoothing things a bit what you expect from 13 is roughly:
star 15% of the time
solid 25%
Role Player 35%
Deep Bench 20%
Bust 5%

That fits my estimate of Fredette's chances in the league... except less chance of being a star, say 10%. Of course, you'd like a guy that you project higher than the historical average but if this is a weak draft you'd have be an ace drafter to do that.

The reason I'd be happy with Jimmer is that I think he can be a phenomenal role player - a game changer. I'd rather get a defensive game changer so I'd pick a Biyombo if available.

I look at Fredette's solid body and watch his great lateral quickness and I find it hard to believe he can't play good defense. I can't argue with people that watched him and say he played poor D, but it seems fairly likely to me that he was doing what the coach thought was best for the team - conserve energy on defense and carry the team on offense. Somewhat akin to what Nash does on the Suns - minus the strong body and lateral quickness. As a role player he wouldn't have to conserve energy.

 

[AzStevenCal]

This site has the outcome of draft picks 1-60 for the 20 years 1989 through 2008: http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Pick 13 was lucky in that section of history but smoothing things a bit what you expect from 13 is roughly:
star 15% of the time
solid 25%
Role Player 35%
Deep Bench 20%
Bust 5%

That fits my estimate of Fredette's chances in the league... except less chance of being a star, say 10%. Of course, you'd like a guy that you project higher than the historical average but if this is a weak draft you'd have be an ace drafter to do that.

The reason I'd be happy with Jimmer is that I think he can be a phenomenal role player - a game changer. I'd rather get a defensive game changer so I'd pick a Biyombo if available.

I look at Fredette's solid body and watch his great lateral quickness and I find it hard to believe he can't play good defense. I can't argue with people that watched him and say he played poor D, but it seems fairly likely to me that he was doing what the coach thought was best for the team - conserve energy on defense and carry the team on offense. Somewhat akin to what Nash does on the Suns - minus the strong body and lateral quickness. As a role player he wouldn't have to conserve energy.

I won't be devastated if we draft Jimmer. For me, the problem with taking Fredette has almost as much to do with expectations and perception than anything else. If we draft a long, quick, athletic player and he goes bust or ends up as a middle of the bench guy not much will be said about it. However, we're going to have to put up with a lot of whining around here if we gamble on Jimmer and he doesn't work out. That's a pretty lame reason to pass on someone and fortunately, management will make their decision without worrying about this particular consequence.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

gee, you think the Suns FO doesn't hang on everything we say on here?

 

[AzStevenCal]

gee, you think the Suns FO doesn't hang on everything we say on here?

I know, complete shocker.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

I won't be devastated if we draft Jimmer. For me, the problem with taking Fredette has almost as much to do with expectations and perception than anything else. If we draft a long, quick, athletic player and he goes bust or ends up as a middle of the bench guy not much will be said about it. However, we're going to have to put up with a lot of whining around here if we gamble on Jimmer and he doesn't work out. That's a pretty lame reason to pass on someone and fortunately, management will make their decision without worrying about this particular consequence.

Steve

To be fair, it's the front office putting themselves out there saying that the front office is going to focus on defense.

So, if they draft him and he becomes another in a long line of defensive albatrosses that have made themselves at home on the Suns roster even though they knew he was a terrible defender................

it's 100% deserved.

After all, the front office is finally coming to terms with what most league analysts and fans have already been saying for years. Stop bringing in offensive only minded guys or the franchise will never change.

 

[Mainstreet]

To be fair, it's the front office putting themselves out there saying that the front office is going to focus on defense.

So, if they draft him and he becomes another in a long line of defensive albatrosses that have made themselves at home on the Suns roster even though they knew he was a terrible defender................

it's 100% deserved.

After all, the front office is finally coming to terms with what most league analysts and fans have already been saying for years. Stop bringing in offensive only minded guys or the franchise will never change.

First, I'm not on any Jimmer bandwagon. However, if the Suns believe he will be a legitimate star, you don't pass on him, defense or no defense. I don't see many potential stars in this draft. I just wish the Suns had better scouting. There are always four other players that help play defense.

 

[Covert Rain]

First, I'm not on any Jimmer bandwagon. However, if the Suns believe he will be a legitimate star, you don't pass on him, defense or no defense. I don't see many potential stars in this draft. I just wish the Suns had better scouting. There are always four other players that help play defense.

I agree to an extent. If by the time you pick, the players left are equally talented and you have your choice of the offensive player or defensive player, you don't draft Jimmer. If by the time you pick there is a huge gap in talent between Jimmer and then next player on your draft board, OK, then I could see it.

Having said that, I agree with you (especially at where the Suns are drafting), you are not going to get a star and the gap between players is going to be minimal. That's why I don't see any scenario in which you would want to draft Jimmer and expect anybody to take the FO seriously about changing it's stripes.

 

[Errntknght]

I have another rationale for not drafting Fredette - it should fit right in with some of the other strange ones.

Utah certainly ought to have the best read on Jimmer of any team in the league. He figures to be a bigger drawing card in SLC than anywhere else - Phoenix is probably second. The Jazz have considerable need for long range shooting and also for an offensive minded PG. If they pass on him at #12 wouldn't it be rather presumptuous of the Suns' FO to think they know better than Utah's?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I have another rationale for not drafting Fredette - it should fit right in with some of the other strange ones.

Utah certainly ought to have the best read on Jimmer of any team in the league. He figures to be a bigger drawing card in SLC than anywhere else - Phoenix is probably second. The Jazz have considerable need for long range shooting and also for an offensive minded PG. If they pass on him at #12 wouldn't it be rather presumptuous of the Suns' FO to think they know better than Utah's?

Seems to me that is a bad reason. A team should do its own homework and not second guess it based upon what other teams do. If they want him and he is there, draft him.

Fredette will be hugely marketable. His name is already being used as a verb -- "Can you teach me to Jimmer?" The kid has charisma and he isn't afraid of anyone. He keeps asking to do team workouts with Kyrie, Kemba etc and those players don't want to do it. I know, he stands to benefit and they run the risk of falling, but it still says something about his competitiveness.

I am not dead set on getting him. But I would not be disappointed if we do.

 

[WildBB]

Earl Clarke was drafted what, 14th? Was he a liability defensively? What was the deal with him? Why didn't/couldn't they develop him more if the idea is to develop the team more defensively?

 

[SirStefan32]

Earl Clarke was drafted what, 14th? Was he a liability defensively? What was the deal with him? Why didn't/couldn't they develop him more if the idea is to develop the team more defensively?

He just wasn't an NBA player. He made Lopez look like Tim Duncan.

 

[Superbone]

He didn't have anything between the ears.

 

[Griffin]

According to NBADraft.net, Jonas Valanciunas is likely to withdraw his name from the draft before the deadline due to buyout issues. If true, this will be bad news for Phoenix, as Valanciunas was projected to be drafted before the 13th pick.

In its latest mock draft, NBADraft.net now has the Suns taking Fredette. They have also moved up Kaner to first overall, moved up Tristan Thompson (Suns' previous projected pick) to 6th overall, and moved Bismack Biyombo all the way down to #20.

Is Biyombo's stock falling? When asked about Biyombo, Blanks replied "We have people who have seen him and are aware of that situation at a high detail level. The organization has seen him a lot and are very aware of him." That doesn't say much, but the Suns rarely (at least as far as I can recall) draft players they haven't personally worked out.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Earl Clarke was drafted what, 14th? Was he a liability defensively? What was the deal with him? Why didn't/couldn't they develop him more if the idea is to develop the team more defensively?

His single biggest on court deficiency was his inability to tell the difference between a good shot and a horrible shot. He would shoot a falling away 3 point shot early in the clock while double guarded and then turn around and pass out of a wide open 10 footer with seconds remaining. That kind of stupidity is difficult to overcome and the real problem wasn't that he couldn't develop but that someone (anyone) was willing to draft him in the first place.

Steve

 

[Folster]

It appears that as the draft grows closer, uncertainty increases. NBAdraft.net now has Kemba Walker slipping to #13, Burks falling to #15 and Biyombo dropping all the way to #20. Having a choice between those three at #13 for the Suns would be fantastic. I'm still favoring Burks if available.

 

[elindholm]

NBAdraft.net now has Kemba Walker slipping to #13, Burks falling to #15 and Biyombo dropping all the way to #20.

I think it's very likely that NBAdraft.net simply shuffles their "projections" randomly in order to increase traffic, particularly as the draft is approaching. I wouldn't interpret their apparent uncertainty as reflecting anything in the real world.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think it's very likely that NBAdraft.net simply shuffles their "projections" randomly in order to increase traffic, particularly as the draft is approaching. I wouldn't interpret their apparent uncertainty as reflecting anything in the real world.

I think alot of it is also as teams get to see some of these guys in personal workouts...some guys end up not being as good as they thought and other possibly are better.

All this stuff leaks and it impacts the boards. I am sure what you saying is also true to some extent.

 

[Folster]

I think it's very likely that NBAdraft.net simply shuffles their "projections" randomly in order to increase traffic, particularly as the draft is approaching. I wouldn't interpret their apparent uncertainty as reflecting anything in the real world.

No doubt. But, I'm sure the guys running that site have a little bit of pride in getting it right, at least their final mock which is done either the day before or the morning of the draft.

What players do you have your eye on?

 

[Matt L]

How about Bismack Biyombo? I heard he bombed at his workout and could fall out of the lottery...

 

[elindholm]

But, I'm sure the guys running that site have a little bit of pride in getting it right, at least their final mock which is done either the day before or the morning of the draft.

Maybe. Their accuracy rate isn't especially high. In fact, I'm surprised every June about how poor the "consensus" (draft sites and/or broader sports sites) at getting anything outside of the top few picks correct. I think it must be true that NBA front offices either evaluate talent quite a bit differently from how those in the media do, or send out more smoke screens than we could ever imagine, or both.

What players do you have your eye on?

I don't follow the draft. The difference is that I don't maintain a website devoted to my draft ignorance.

 

[Folster]

I don't follow the draft. The difference is that I don't maintain a website devoted to my draft ignorance.

I think you misinterpreted my question. I'm genuinely interested in what players you like in this draft. You must have an opinion as a Suns fan, a suns fan who has his own website dedicated to Suns talk.

 

[jagu]

Get Fredette. I think Kemba Walker is going to be a serious bust in the NBA.