2014 Draft morphing

[Cheesebeef]

Even though the odds are so long, I found it interesting that if we somehow get a top 3 pick, not only would we get one of the prime prospects, it would also move Minnesota's pick from number 13 to number 14--and since it's only top-13 protected, we would get their pick.

Won't happen, but that would be pretty crazy. The basketball gods would never be that good to the Suns.

yup. God would have to be napping during the lottery for that to happen.

 

[Griffin]

Even though the odds are so long, I found it interesting that if we somehow get a top 3 pick, not only would we get one of the prime prospects, it would also move Minnesota's pick from number 13 to number 14--and since it's only top-13 protected, we would get their pick.

Won't happen, but that would be pretty crazy. The basketball gods would never be that good to the Suns.

Same thing occurred to me yesterday. But no team has ever moved up from that far back in the lottery. A far more likely scenario is that the player the Suns really want keeps falling, only to be snatched up by the T-Wolves at 13.

Btw, what was the probability that the T-Wolves would end up with the 13th pick in a draft where they owe us a top-13 protected pick?

 

[HooverDam]

Same thing occurred to me yesterday. But no team has ever moved up from that far back in the lottery. A far more likely scenario is that the player the Suns really want keeps falling, only to be snatched up by the T-Wolves at 13.

Btw, what was the probability that the T-Wolves would end up with the 13th pick in a draft where they owe us a top-13 protected pick?

About the same as the Hawks getting #3 in 2007 when the pick was Top 3 protected.

 

[Cheesebeef]

About the same as the Hawks getting #3 in 2007 when the pick was Top 3 protected.

exactly what i was just about to type.

 

[JCSunsfan]

No way that happens. They'll hold out for a better deal if that's the case.

They can do that, but they won't get one. I can guarantee you the Lakers are not giving up their lotto pick this year in a deal for Kevin Love. They are going to draft a player and wait for free agency.

 

[Cheesebeef]

They can do that, but they won't get one. I can guarantee you the Lakers are not giving up their lotto pick this year in a deal for Kevin Love. They are going to draft a player and wait for free agency.

Might want to walk back that guarantee a little bit. Kupchak was literally JUST on the radio here in LA saying they'd definitely consider using their lotto pick in a trade this summer. They're delusional out here. They think they can rebuild completely on the fly and bring in enough talent this off-season to rally around Kobe in his last couple years.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Same thing occurred to me yesterday. But no team has ever moved up from that far back in the lottery. A far more likely scenario is that the player the Suns really want keeps falling, only to be snatched up by the T-Wolves at 13.

Btw, what was the probability that the T-Wolves would end up with the 13th pick in a draft where they owe us a top-13 protected pick?

In 2008 the Bulls moved from 9 to 1 (1.7% odds)
In 1999 Charlotte moved from 13 to 3 (.5 % odds)
In 1993 Orlando moved from 11 to 1 (1.5% odds)

And just for those who think the Suns have no luck at all, 1987 the Suns moved from 7 to 2 (14% odds)

 

[HooverDam]

Might want to walk back that guarantee a little bit. Kupchak was literally JUST on the radio here in LA saying they'd definitely consider using their lotto pick in a trade this summer. They're delusional out here. They think they can rebuild completely on the fly and bring in enough talent this off-season to rally around Kobe in his last couple years.

It's not all that unreasonable. Even with Kobe's insane contract, they have a ton of money. They're only at $35.34M, assuming Nick Young picks up his option. If the luxury tax level is somewhere around $72M, they can get another star to come to LA. If they get a star guy at around $20M that puts them at $55.34M, so they'd have $17M to fill out the rest of the roster--tight, but doable. I'm not sure what their situation with MLE's and such is.

Pau will either take a walk or have to resign for much cheaper. The Lakers could give Bledsoe a huge offer, if only to force the Suns hand and make Phx match. Melo could opt out if he thinks NY is too much of a mess, though him and Kobe would be an odd match--but stranger things have happened.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's not all that unreasonable. Even with Kobe's insane contract, they have a ton of money. They're only at $35.34M, assuming Nick Young picks up his option. If the luxury tax level is somewhere around $72M, they can get another star to come to LA.

If they get a star guy at around $20M that puts them at $55.34M, so they'd have $17M to fill out the rest of the roster--tight, but doable. I'm not sure what their situation with MLE's and such is.

I think you're confusing the salary cap with the luxury tax though. they can get one star to come to LA, but that's pretty much it because then they'll be at the cap and once there, they can't add more FA or another player in trade to go over it and fill out the roster. You can only go over it by resigning your own players and their own players SUCK.

And it's no secret that the Lakers covet Kevin Love...and it's no secret that they will literally do whatever Kobe wants and what Kobe wants is to win...now. They can't wait another year for Love without Kobe going nuclear all season long and I don't believe they'll let that happen. They'll cut off their nose to spite their face.

Pau will either take a walk or have to resign for much cheaper. The Lakers could give Bledsoe a huge offer, if only to force the Suns hand and make Phx match. Melo could opt out if he thinks NY is too much of a mess, though him and Kobe would be an odd match--but stranger things have happened.

i hope they do all of the above, because i think that pairing would be awful, but I think they go hard after Love, in a move for both the present and future.

 

[Catlover]

In 2008 the Bulls moved from 9 to 1 (1.7% odds)
In 1999 Charlotte moved from 13 to 3 (.5 % odds)
In 1993 Orlando moved from 11 to 1 (1.5% odds)

And just for those who think the Suns have no luck at all, 1987 the Suns moved from 7 to 2 (14% odds)

The lottery was an equal opportunity affair back then, there was no weighting nor was it limited to just the first three picks. IOW, we didn't move up from 7 to 2. We had no presumed position until the lottery and we had an equal chance of drafting 1st all the way through to the last pick in the lottery.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The lottery was an equal opportunity affair back then, there was no weighting nor was it limited to just the first three picks. IOW, we didn't move up from 7 to 2. We had no presumed position until the lottery and we had an equal chance of drafting 1st all the way through to the last pick in the lottery.

Cmon. The point is that they actually "won" something at one time. Good grief. If there was no lottery, they would have picked 7th, instead they picked 2nd. Dding! Something good!

 

[elindholm]

The Suns' chances of moving up are around 1 in 55. Past history makes no difference. It is what it is.

 

[Mainstreet]

If it hasn't already been noted, to play the NBA lottery go to the link below:

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

The Suns chances are listed at 0.5%.

I have played it perhaps 20 times and have yet to get anything better than #14.

 

[Mainstreet]

I just played the lottery again on ESPN and on the first try, the Suns draft Andrew Wiggins at #2.

I think I may have to quit playing now.

 

[HooverDam]

I just played the lottery again on ESPN and on the first try, the Suns draft Andrew Wiggins at #2.

I think I may have to quit playing now.

Hooray!

Also if anyone cares, the Wizards lost the coin flip with Brooklyn. The Suns will get their pick at 18. So its almost assuredly 14, 18, 28.

E: First time I played the Celtics and Lakers went 1-2. Which would be the least surprising thing in the world.

Also I don't think it takes team need into account. It has the Suns taking LaVine, PG, UCLA at 14. I can't see the Suns taking another PG at all unless they know Bledsoe is walking.

 

[Errntknght]

If the 1987 draft was equal opportunity as Catlover says then the Suns chances of picking 2nd were 1 out of N, where N is the number of teams... probably N was 26 or 27 at that time.

 

[Mainstreet]

Hooray!

Also if anyone cares, the Wizards lost the coin flip with Brooklyn. The Suns will get their pick at 18. So its almost assuredly 14, 18, 28.

E: First time I played the Celtics and Lakers went 1-2. Which would be the least surprising thing in the world.

Also I don't think it takes team need into account. It has the Suns taking LaVine, PG, UCLA at 14. I can't see the Suns taking another PG at all unless they know Bledsoe is walking.

I wanted that 17th pick.

I can see the Suns drafting a combo guard, the role LB was supposed to play if he stayed healthy.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Lakers are reportedly interested in trading their draft pick. Perhaps the Suns have found a potential trade partner to move up in the draft.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233000/Kupchak-Trading-Lottery-Pick-Possibility-For-Lakers

 

[JCSunsfan]

I just played the lottery again on ESPN and on the first try, the Suns draft Andrew Wiggins at #2.

I think I may have to quit playing now.

Yes, please stop playing now. I am sure Elindholm will agree that it is a sign that the math has now changed.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If the 1987 draft was equal opportunity as Catlover says then the Suns chances of picking 2nd were 1 out of N, where N is the number of teams... probably N was 26 or 27 at that time.

N was the number of teams NOT in the playoffs.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If it hasn't already been noted, to play the NBA lottery go to the link below:

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

The Suns chances are listed at 0.5%.

I have played it perhaps 20 times and have yet to get anything better than #14.

Ha, on my first play the Suns took Embiid third! (And Zach LaVine 14)

 

[HooverDam]

The Lakers are reportedly interested in trading their draft pick. Perhaps the Suns have found a potential trade partner to move up in the draft.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/233000/Kupchak-Trading-Lottery-Pick-Possibility-For-Lakers

They're not going to trade it for some combo of our picks, the Morris' and Channing Frye or some silly thing though. It would mean the Suns are signing and trading Eric Bledsoe to LA because he's told the front office he hates it here and wants out, and thus the Suns hands are tied.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

They're not going to trade it for some combo of our picks, the Morris' and Channing Frye or some silly thing though. It would mean the Suns are signing and trading Eric Bledsoe to LA because he's told the front office he hates it here and wants out, and thus the Suns hands are tied.

I don't see the Lakers trading the #6 for only Bledsoe though, although I could see them do it for Love as they're desperate. Maybe Bledsoe and their 2015 pick back or Bledsoe and one or two of the picks in the teens or something if allowed. As much as I like Bledsoe, that #5/6 pick is enticing with Dragic already in the fold at the point.

 

[Mainstreet]

Ha, on my first play the Suns took Embiid third! (And Zach LaVine 14)

I nominate you to go to the lottery!

 

[HooverDam]

I don't see the Lakers trading the #6 for only Bledsoe though,

Quite possible. The Lakers are an extremely entitled organization, they'd try to squeeze everything out of the Suns they could. That would be especially true of Bledsoe came out publicly and made noise about wanting to be back in LA, wanted to play with Kobe or some such thing.