2014 Draft morphing

[slinslin]

It's possible. He was projected between #7-10 before this.

 

[slinslin]

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Joel-Embiid-2014-NBA-Pre-Draft-Workout-Video-4596//

how could you not pick this guy #1 even with Oden, Olowokandi and other #1 center busts.. if he stays healthy that guy has a great chance to be all-nba for sure for many years.

 

[AzStevenCal]

It's possible. He was projected between #7-10 before this.

That's absurd. Why do you post crap like this?

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Joel-Embiid-2014-NBA-Pre-Draft-Workout-Video-4596//

how could you not pick this guy #1 even with Oden, Olowokandi and other #1 center busts.. if he stays healthy that guy has a great chance to be all-nba for sure for many years.

Just a couple of days ago you claimed that he wasn't worth trading up for. Which is it?

Healthy, Embiid is everyone's target in this draft. A big man with superstar potential at both ends of the court. What's not to love?

Steve

 

[slinslin]

That's absurd. Why do you post crap like this?

Steve

Because it is true.

He is #7 on DX currently and #7 on Fords list and was sliding before it.

The Lakers and Celtics are rumored to be high on Gordon, Smart or McDermott. It is likely that Randle was the #3 choice among PFs before the foot injury. Now Dario Saric could very possible jump him too which would make him #4 on the PF chart.
Players likely to go ahead of Randle: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Vonleh, Gordon, Smart and possibly McDermott, Saric and Nurkic. In Nurkic's case I believe this to be likely as he is clearly the #2 center prospect in the draft. That would put Randle around 10 - foot injury or not.

 

[slinslin]

Just a couple of days ago you claimed that he wasn't worth trading up for. Which is it?

Healthy, Embiid is everyone's target in this draft. A big man with superstar potential at both ends of the court. What's not to love?

Steve

Because there is a huge difference between already having the #1 pick and taking the player with the highest ceiling or trading all your assets for him with the chance of him being a bust.

His bust potential is certainly much higher than that of Parker or Wiggins.

 

[slinslin]

In other news there are some whispers that Nik Stauskas has a promise from the Suns.

At least he is not going to work out for anyone below #14. He is only working out for the Lakers, Celtics, Hornets and Suns.

https://twitter.com/rick_bonnell/statuses/476741604708204544
https://twitter.com/rick_bonnell/status/476896221353635840

 

[slinslin]

from ESPN analytics

While the highly touted crop of NCAA freshmen in the 2014 NBA draft didn't entirely live up to the hype in terms of on-court production, another group in the 2014 draft quietly put up big numbers: international prospects. With multiple young players dominating their domestic leagues or succeeding in international competitions, this looks like the best group of overseas players in recent draft memory.

My projections for international players are built by translating performance in European leagues to the NBA equivalent. In the past, I've done that by looking at how players have fared before or after coming from or going to the Euroleague, EuroCup and Spanish ACB from the NBA. This year, I've added the French ProA League and the Adriatic League by using a second layer of translations: how players have performed in these competitions compared to the Euroleague or EuroCup, since the top teams play in both at the same time.

Another important factor in the projections is regressing them to replacement level by position, since the sample sizes are often much smaller for European players than their NBA peers. For example, EuroCup teams that lose in the opening round play just six games, meaning a heavy adjustment is needed for fluky performances. After projecting a year of development based on the performance of players scored as similar by my SCHOENE projection system, I combine age and projected performance to come up with WARP projections that put international players on the same scale as their college counterparts (WARP = wins above replacement player).

The results are striking this year. Four of the top five prospects by WARP in the 2014 draft have never played in the NCAA. Except for Ricky Rubio, all four rate better than any previous European prospect in my database (which includes most international players back through 2006).

TOP 10 INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS BY WARP (2006-13)
Player Year Pick Win% Age pWARP*
Ricky Rubio 2009 5 .480 18.5 3.7
Nikola Mirotic 2011 23 .482 20.2 2.9
Rudy Fernandez 2007 24 .521 22.0 2.9
Jonas Valanciunas 2011 5 .446 19.0 2.7
Lucas Nogueira 2013 16 .474 20.7 2.4
Danilo Gallinari 2008 6 .473 20.7 2.4
Andrea Bargnani 2006 1 .485 21.5 2.3
Sergio Llull 2009 34 .482 21.4 2.2
Sergey Karasev 2013 19 .429 19.5 2.0
Brandon Jennings 2010 10 .444 20.6 1.8 * projected WARP
Here's a look at the top 10 prospects who played internationally this year based on projected WARP.

1. Clint Capela, PF, Chalon (3.4 projected WARP)

Capela's star has lost much of its luster since a disappointing effort at the Nike Hoop Summit in April, but it's worth remembering why he was once considered a likely lottery pick. Before age 20, Capela was one of the best players in the French ProA League and put up similar numbers in Chalon's brief EuroCup stay. He projects as a high-percentage finisher, a plus rebounder and a good shot-blocker from the power forward spot. SCHOENE compares Capela to former No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors during his rookie season.


2. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Cedevita (3.3 projected WARP)

I'd peg Nurkic as the most interesting prospect in this year's draft. He tore apart the competitive Adriatic League, putting up the league's best per-minute win percentage. Nurkic wasn't nearly as effective in 15 EuroCup games, averaging 15.4 minutes per game and rating below NBA replacement level. Still, just two players in this year's draft (NCAA seniors Doug McDermott and Russ Smith) have higher projected usage rates, and Nurkic figures to be an efficient scorer in large part due to his accurate free throw shooting. If Nurkic can keep up defensively -- he projects to average six fouls per 36 minutes -- he has enormous NBA potential.

3. Dante Exum, PG, Australian Institute of Sport (3.2 projected WARP)

Exum's projection is unlike any other international player because he did not play in a professional league. Instead, I used his performance at the FIBA U-19 Championships last summer to generate a projection for him, as described in my most recent collaboration with Chad Ford.

4. Nikola Jokic, C, Mega Vizura (3.1 projected WARP)

While the numbers are higher on Capela and Nurkic than scouts are, both are likely first-round picks. Jokic, currently No. 51 in Chad Ford's Top 100, could be a bigger steal as a draft-and-stash prospect. During a season when he turned 19 in February, Jokic more than held his own in the Adriatic League. His 20 percent 3-point shooting masked that Jokic shot an impressive 64.4 percent from inside the arc. A skilled ball handler for his position, Jokic will have to bulk up to battle in the paint, but he looks like a good gamble for a couple of years down the road.

5. Kristaps Porzingis, F, Cajasol (1.9 projected WARP)

Ford has described Porzingis as the "hot name" in the draft right now, and his stats project room for growth. In his first year in the ACB, played almost entirely at age 18, Porzingis had an above-average usage rate and was sure-handed with the ball. His efficiency suffered from 33.3 percent 3-point shooting, and he will have to either improve his range or cut the 3 out of his game. One concern: Despite being 6-foot-11, Porzingis rebounds like a small forward.

6. Guillem Vives, PG, Joventut (1.9 projected WARP)

An unheralded prospect who emerged as Joventut's starting point guard, Vives won the ACB's Best Young Player award over Porzingis and 2013 second-round pick Alex Abrines, among others. For some reason, that hasn't translated into much draft buzz, and Vives isn't in Ford's Top 100. At 6-foot-4, Vives is an excellent playmaker and good finisher whose numbers compare favorably to those of Raul Neto, who was drafted in the second round last year at the same age out of the ACB.

7. Dario Saric, F, KK Cibona (1.4 projected WARP)

After Exum, Saric will surely be the second international player taken in the draft, but statistically he grades out as only the third-best prospect in the Adriatic League. To some extent, Saric suffers from the regression process because treating him as a forward brings down his impressive assist rate. Beyond that, while Saric was rightly named Adriatic MVP this season, his play in the EuroCup and last season in the Adriatic wasn't as impressive. However, he was as good as Exum in the U-19 Championships, where he had a better assist rate than Exum, Tyler Ennis and Marcus Smart. So there's plenty of evidence that Saric is a lottery-caliber prospect.

Capela fits a major need and should be on the board for one of our picks.

Another center project might be hard to afford especially one with a scouting report like Nurkic describing him an "un-explosive" is probably a bad fit for us.

Hopefully Jokic will be available at #50. Young skilled center, draft and stash option, sounds perfect for the 2nd round.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Because it is true.

He is #7 on DX currently and #7 on Fords list and was sliding before it.

The Lakers and Celtics are rumored to be high on Gordon, Smart or McDermott. It is likely that Randle was the #3 choice among PFs before the foot injury. Now Dario Saric could very possible jump him too which would make him #4 on the PF chart.
Players likely to go ahead of Randle: Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Vonleh, Gordon, Smart and possibly McDermott, Saric and Nurkic. In Nurkic's case I believe this to be likely as he is clearly the #2 center prospect in the draft. That would put Randle at #11.

No, it isn't true. It's nowhere close to true. Maybe it will change now that there are concerns about his foot healing but there were far too many draft sites listing him as a top 6 pick for you to justify your claim that he was projected 7 to 10.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

The most respected draft sites have him at #7 and sliding him down that is all that matters. DX and Espn.

nbadraft.net has him at #5 but nbadraft.net is not very credible.

I also have to revert my opinion on McDermott and Stauskas. They have been growing on me as prospects, both of them would probably be excellent fits. McDermott statistically ranks incredibly well and his athletic testing results were good also, of course so same could be said of Adam Morrison but still.

 

[SirStefan32]

The most respected draft sites have him at #7 and sliding him down that is all that matters. DX and Espn.

nbadraft.net has him at #5 but nbadraft.net is not very credible.

I also have to revert my opinion on McDermott and Stauskas. They have been growing on me as prospects, both of them would probably be excellent fits. McDermott statistically ranks incredibly well and his athletic testing results were good also, of course so same could be said of Adam Morrison but still.

So saying that he is projected to go 7-10 is kind of like saying he is projected to go 4-7?
Just stop making up random crap.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The most respected draft sites have him at #7 and sliding him down that is all that matters. DX and Espn.

nbadraft.net has him at #5 but nbadraft.net is not very credible.

I also have to revert my opinion on McDermott and Stauskas. They have been growing on me as prospects, both of them would probably be excellent fits. McDermott statistically ranks incredibly well and his athletic testing results were good also, of course so same could be said of Adam Morrison but still.

Two sources now have him sliding to the Lakers. That's a far cry from what you said earlier. Where are all these respected draft sites that have him projected 8th, 9th or 10th prior to the foot issue?

Steve

 

[slinslin]

They dont have him sliding "now". He was constantly sliding before and there have been several critical voices about him. Those mock drafts don't get really accurate until a few days before the draft.

We will talk about this in 2 weeks. I expect Randle to do a Sullinger.

CSN has Randle at #8.

CBS:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...o-miss-6-8-weeks-with-post-draft-foot-surgery

Once thought to be in the running as the No. 1 pick, Kentucky product Julius Randle has now slipped to sixth, seventh or eighth in most mock drafts -- but could he fall further?

Wojnarowski

University of Kentucky forward Julius Randle, considered a top 10 pick, likely needs surgery on his right foot after the NBA draft in June, league sources told Yahoo Sport

He could have said top 7 pick, but did not because Woj also knows that even before this story 7-10 was likely for Randle with reports coming that Vonleh is the #1 PF in the draft and Celtics and Lakers loving Gordon.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Dan Majerle already had knee surgery and screws in his ankles when he came out of college.

Dan Majerle wasn't a big man.

 

[Russ Smith]

The hype for Zach Lavine reminds me of the hype for Jeremy Lamb a couple years back.

Both had same criticisms and strengths also. Very athletic, shooter but tends to get invisible in games.

Lamb has turned out as a bust. OKC desperately needed firepower off the bench and despite the defenses focusing on Westbrook and Durant, Lamb hasn't been able to do much of anything.

Is Lavine gonna turn out like Lamb?

And I don't understand why Suns fans want him. How is he any different than Gerald Green? We already have a VERY strong backcourt. Why waste a lottery pick on yet another guard? Front court is where need help. Leave the backcourt alone. And no we can't draft Lavine "assuming" that Bledsoe is gonna leave. Nobody knows what he's gonna do and even if Bledsoe leaves, our front court still needs more help than a backcourt featuring Dragic/Green.

I would rather just wait and develop Goodwin than get yet another guard.

And Lamb was actually good in college.

 

[Mainstreet]

Dan Majerle wasn't a big man.

Tell that to Dan and report back.

 

[JerkFace]

Two weeks before last years draft if I would of mocked the actual draft I would of been highly criticized. I personally think Randall has a draft range of 5-12. Slides happen every year. The most crazy draft projection is predicting that nothing crazy will happen.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Two weeks before last years draft if I would of mocked the actual draft I would of been highly criticized. I personally think Randall has a draft range of 5-12. Slides happen every year. The most crazy draft projection is predicting that nothing crazy will happen.

I probably would have said 3 to 8 before information on his foot came out although 5 or 6 would have been the most likely slot. But you're right, reality has very little to do with mock drafts. Even with the concern about his foot I'll be surprised if he falls below 7th. Not shocked though as that's the way the draft often goes. I never even heard a whisper last year that Bennett was being looked at for the number one spot nor did I think we had Len anywhere on our radar.

Steve

 

[Joe Mama]

I probably would have said 3 to 8 before information on his foot came out although 5 or 6 would have been the most likely slot. But you're right, reality has very little to do with mock drafts. Even with the concern about his foot I'll be surprised if he falls below 7th. Not shocked though as that's the way the draft often goes. I never even heard a whisper last year that Bennett was being looked at for the number one spot nor did I think we had Len anywhere on our radar.

Steve

The only way Randall gets to the top three is if Embid's back goes out again. If anything I'd bet on him Randall going lower than where he is currently projected rather than moving up into the top four. I was feeling that way before this foot surgery stuff came out.

Joe

 

[AzStevenCal]

The only way Randall gets to the top three is if Embid's back goes out again. If anything I'd bet on him Randall going lower than where he is currently projected rather than moving up into the top four. I was feeling that way before this foot surgery stuff came out.

Joe

Absolutely. I think Embiid followed by Parker/Wiggins is a given unless his back scares the first three teams away. I also agree that Randle is more likely to fall than he is to sneak into the top 4. I won't be surprised wherever he lands although I will be surprised if Aaron Gordon goes before him and I've seen that suggested a few times. I took issue with the unqualified statement that Randle (pre-foot report) was projected to go between 7 and 10 but I wouldn't be surprised if that's where he landed.

The interesting thing about Randle though is that he was considered a top three lock at the start of the season and he didn't fall because of his on court performance or off court behavior. He's falling because of his measurements IMO. If someone wants to pass him by because of his lack of defense or his inability to use his other hand or because of a lack of range it would make sense but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

The only way Randall gets to the top three is if Embid's back goes out again. If anything I'd bet on him Randall going lower than where he is currently projected rather than moving up into the top four. I was feeling that way before this foot surgery stuff came out.

Joe

This, there is no way he was moving in the top 3. He is regarded below Vonleh as a prospect and lately also below Gordon. He was about to be moved down on a lot of draft boards even before the foot surgery rumor.

7-14 seems realistic for Randle at this point.

However I find 7 extremely unlikely considering that the top 3 are locks, Vonleh, Exum, Smart are likely locks to go ahead of him and Gordon seems to as well. That alone would put Randle at #8 best case.

 

[slinslin]

The interesting thing about Randle though is that he was considered a top three lock at the start of the season and he didn't fall because of his on court performance or off court behavior. He's falling because of his measurements IMO. If someone wants to pass him by because of his lack of defense or his inability to use his other hand or because of a lack of range it would make sense but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Steve

Because nobody had Embiid on the radar like this.

And he is also falling due to performance on the court. He was expected to be better than what he showed. He was supposed to be a low post threat but Kentucky moved away from that later in the year as it proved not that effective.
A lot of Randle's scoring came from face-up situations.

Kind of like a mini Beasley in college. They have similiar flaws and Beasley was a much better college player.

Randle has consistently been moved down on the draft boards, his measurements at the combine were bad, the foot surgery thing.. He will be the 3rd or 4th PF taken in the draft.

 

[Errntknght]

AzSteve.

nor did I think we had Len anywhere on our radar.

Some of us did. If Oladipo was gone I expected us to go big... Noel, Len, Zeller, Adams, Dieng. Quite a few people mentioned Adams though not at #5. I think Joe Mama and I were the only two that mentioned Dieng at all. Heck, Len was #1 in several mocks and invariably in the top 10 so he was an obvious possibility.

 

[AzStevenCal]

AzSteve.

Some of us did. If Oladipo was gone I expected us to go big... Noel, Len, Zeller, Adams, Dieng. Quite a few people mentioned Adams though not at #5. I think Joe Mama and I were the only two that mentioned Dieng at all. Heck, Len was #1 in several mocks and invariably in the top 10 so he was an obvious possibility.

No, I was interested in Dieng and mentioned him a few times too although not as a consideration in the top 5 or 10. When I heard that Cleveland was looking at taking Len first, I just thought it was a huge smoke screen. I really hadn't thought he was even in the top 10 conversation until the Cavs rumor. I do remember Adams being mentioned as a top 10 pick but I also wasn't very high on him either. I hadn't really watched him play but the knock about his inconsistent motor and IIRC that he wasn't much of a student of the game scared me away.

Steve

 

[JerkFace]

I did a mock with the express purpose of having Randle drop. Is this likely, probably not... Is it possible, I don't really see why not.

1. Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins, Small Forward, Kansas

2. Bucks: Joel Embiid, Center, Kansas

3. 76ers: Jabari Parker, Small Forward, Duke

4. Magic: Dante Exum, Shooting Guard, Australia

5. Jazz: Marcus Smart, Point Guard, Oklahoma State

6. Celtics: Aaron Gordon, Power Forward, Arizona

7. Lakers: Noah Vonleh, Power Forward, Indiana

8. Kings: Tyler Ennis, Point Guard, Syracuse

9. Hornets: Doug McDermott, Power Forward, Creighton

10. 76ers: Gary Harris, Shooting Guard, Michigan State

11. Nuggets: Dario Saric, Small Forward, Croatia

12. Magic: Julius Randle, Power Forward, Kentucky

13. Timberwolves: Nik Stauskas, Shooting Guard, Michigan

14. Suns: James Young, Small Forward, Kentucky