2014 Draft morphing

[AzStevenCal]

I did a mock with the express purpose of having Randle drop. Is this likely, probably not... Is it possible, I don't really see why not.

1. Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins, Small Forward, Kansas

2. Bucks: Joel Embiid, Center, Kansas

3. 76ers: Jabari Parker, Small Forward, Duke

4. Magic: Dante Exum, Shooting Guard, Australia

5. Jazz: Marcus Smart, Point Guard, Oklahoma State

6. Celtics: Aaron Gordon, Power Forward, Arizona

7. Lakers: Noah Vonleh, Power Forward, Indiana

8. Kings: Tyler Ennis, Point Guard, Syracuse

9. Hornets: Doug McDermott, Power Forward, Creighton

10. 76ers: Gary Harris, Shooting Guard, Michigan State

11. Nuggets: Dario Saric, Small Forward, Croatia

12. Magic: Julius Randle, Power Forward, Kentucky

13. Timberwolves: Nik Stauskas, Shooting Guard, Michigan

14. Suns: James Young, Small Forward, Kentucky

I certainly wouldn't mind that draft, I'd be fine with Young. The other thing I'd like about this draft is that Vonleh is a couple of years away and the Lakers might be willing to trade instead of waiting on him to develop. Maybe not but worth a dream.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

I certainly wouldn't mind that draft, I'd be fine with Young. The other thing I'd like about this draft is that Vonleh is a couple of years away and the Lakers might be willing to trade instead of waiting on him to develop. Maybe not but worth a dream.

Steve

They might be willing to trade but only for a vet that could help now. Thinking they might trade for lower plus future picks is a pipe dream.

 

[AzStevenCal]

They might be willing to trade but only for a vet that could help now. Thinking they might trade for lower plus future picks is a pipe dream.

Agreed. That's the same reasoning that so many mocks have them taking Randle. Not because he has the most potential but because he might have the most immediate impact. We'd probably have to get another team involved.

Steve

 

[Russ Smith]

Because nobody had Embiid on the radar like this.

And he is also falling due to performance on the court. He was expected to be better than what he showed. He was supposed to be a low post threat but Kentucky moved away from that later in the year as it proved not that effective.
A lot of Randle's scoring came from face-up situations.

Kind of like a mini Beasley in college. They have similiar flaws and Beasley was a much better college player.

Randle has consistently been moved down on the draft boards, his measurements at the combine were bad, the foot surgery thing.. He will be the 3rd or 4th PF taken in the draft.

Disagree on Embiid, there are posts on this very board from me and others, before the college season started, saying Kansas might have the #1 and #2 picks in Wiggins and Embiid. That was because of all the talk from people who'd seen Embiid including some insiders who'd gotten input from Bill Self who was apparently openly telling recruits he thought Embiid might be the first pick in the draft(to convince them to come to KU because Embiid would be gone).

He came on VERY fast, but it happened to an extent before the season started.

Agree about the Beasley comparison, been saying that awhile he's a well behaved Beasley. For that reason alone I think he's a reasonable risk.

Hard to say, the question on Gordon IMO is always going to be can he put the ball in the basket enough or is he just going to be a good defender and rebounder who doesn't shoot well. With Randle it's we know he can score, he can rebound, who can he guard.

Generally speaking NBA teams tend to pick the guy who can score over the guy who can't but with the injury issue I agree Gordon probably goes ahead of him now.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Disagree on Embiid, there are posts on this very board from me and others, before the college season started, saying Kansas might have the #1 and #2 picks in Wiggins and Embiid. That was because of all the talk from people who'd seen Embiid including some insiders who'd gotten input from Bill Self who was apparently openly telling recruits he thought Embiid might be the first pick in the draft(to convince them to come to KU because Embiid would be gone).

He came on VERY fast, but it happened to an extent before the season started.

Agree about the Beasley comparison, been saying that awhile he's a well behaved Beasley. For that reason alone I think he's a reasonable risk.

Hard to say, the question on Gordon IMO is always going to be can he put the ball in the basket enough or is he just going to be a good defender and rebounder who doesn't shoot well. With Randle it's we know he can score, he can rebound, who can he guard.

Generally speaking NBA teams tend to pick the guy who can score over the guy who can't but with the injury issue I agree Gordon probably goes ahead of him now.

Yeah, Embiid was no secret last summer. He was touted by many (here and elsewhere) as a possible top pick.

I don't get all the Beasley comparisons though. In most ways, Beasley was a far superior college player to Randle. In fact, he was a far superior college player to everyone in this draft. K State just did a great job of playing to his strengths and apparently none of their opponents bothered to read a scouting report. The biggest similarity I can see between the two is that neither of them can use their off hand. When NBA defenses took away Beasley's left hand he started forcing long two's and off balanced heavily guarded jumpers and it was all downhill from there. I don't expect Randle to stay so left hand dominant though, I'd be shocked if he didn't resolve that shortcoming before his second season at the latest.

Randle's defense is going to be an issue and there (might be) concerns over the health of his foot but I think one of the reasons he could slip is that so many teams are moving away from that traditional low post scorer. There's a few teams that still covet that type of player but most of them appear to be in search of a four that can stretch the court. Randle's game is probably better suited to the NBA of the 90's. I think whoever gets him will be thrilled with him though (or at least thrilled with his offense). I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the league in free throws before too long.

It looks like Gordon may well go in the top 6 and I really didn't think that would happen. If he could shoot he'd probably be somewhere between Marion and Pippen but I just don't know how you can keep him on the court once the defense realizes he's out there. I like the guy so I'm pulling for him but I wish he wasn't being considered so highly.

Steve

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah, Embiid was no secret last summer. He was touted by many (here and elsewhere) as a possible top pick.

I don't get all the Beasley comparisons though. In most ways, Beasley was a far superior college player to Randle. In fact, he was a far superior college player to everyone in this draft. K State just did a great job of playing to his strengths and apparently none of their opponents bothered to read a scouting report. The biggest similarity I can see between the two is that neither of them can use their off hand. When NBA defenses took away Beasley's left hand he started forcing long two's and off balanced heavily guarded jumpers and it was all downhill from there. I don't expect Randle to stay so left hand dominant though, I'd be shocked if he didn't resolve that shortcoming before his second season at the latest.

Randle's defense is going to be an issue and there (might be) concerns over the health of his foot but I think one of the reasons he could slip is that so many teams are moving away from that traditional low post scorer. There's a few teams that still covet that type of player but most of them appear to be in search of a four that can stretch the court. Randle's game is probably better suited to the NBA of the 90's. I think whoever gets him will be thrilled with him though (or at least thrilled with his offense). I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead the league in free throws before too long.

It looks like Gordon may well go in the top 6 and I really didn't think that would happen. If he could shoot he'd probably be somewhere between Marion and Pippen but I just don't know how you can keep him on the court once the defense realizes he's out there. I like the guy so I'm pulling for him but I wish he wasn't being considered so highly.

Steve

Similar size, lefties is the most obvious reason. Beasley was amazing in college but if Beasley had played on a loaded lineup like UK, he wouldn't have put up those numbers. Huggins was smart enough to know who his star was and designed the whole offense aroudn him.Cal had too many kids with too many promises to just focus the offense on Randle, he'd have ticked off too many other people.

They both have the ability to get the ball 15-18 feet away and get their own shot. Beasley a better shooter, I think Randle passes the ball better. But Randle really at times struggled to guard anybody and that's the NBA question for him IMO.

I think Randle plays harder consistently but they both in college played one way offense only.

 

[Superbone]

With Randle falling, might the Suns move up to snag him?

 

[Mainstreet]

With Randle falling, might the Suns move up to snag him?

In around about way to answer your question, I think the Suns will draft a PF if one falls to where they can move up and grab him. Those type players would likely include Randle, Vonleh and Gordon.

 

[AzStevenCal]

In around about way to answer your question, I think the Suns will draft a PF if one falls to where they can move up and grab him. Those type players would likely include Randle, Vonleh and Gordon.

It'll be interesting to see what we actually do. We all know we need a power forward but none of those three seem like good fits for us. My guess, we're going to draft Gary Harris, James Young or Nik Stauskas if one of them is there and maybe Payne with our next pick. It's not going to solve our biggest need (although Payne might help) but this draft doesn't appear to have our solution unless their's an international player they have their sights on.

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

I agree with Steve. None of the PFs seem to be great fits.
Gordon can't shoot and he can't post up. Randle can't shoot and he is not particularly athletic, and Vonleh is years away from contributing. I don't think the answer to the Suns' PF problem is in the draft this year. Now, don't get me wrong, I think Randle will be a solid player, and Vonleh has a lot of potential, so I would not be upset if the Suns traded up for one of them, but neither one of the three looks like an immediate answer to the PF problem.

James Young is my guy unless they manage to move up into top 5. Take the best player available, and look for a PF in free agency/ trades. Hell, I'd like to see what Morris can do starting and getting 30+ minutes per game.

 

[Mainstreet]

It'll be interesting to see what we actually do. We all know we need a power forward but none of those three seem like good fits for us. My guess, we're going to draft Gary Harris, James Young or Nik Stauskas if one of them is there and maybe Payne with our next pick. It's not going to solve our biggest need (although Payne might help) but this draft doesn't appear to have our solution unless their's an international player they have their sights on.

Steve

Adreian Payne has a problem with fatigue, small lungs I believe. He can probably never be more than a backup PF.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Adreian Payne has a problem with fatigue, small lungs I believe. He can probably never be more than a backup PF.

I'm aware of his problem but I also know that he has greatly improved his endurance over his college career. As a freshman he struggled to play double digit minutes and after intense conditioning work he's improved to the point where he can give you 30 minutes a night. He's not perfect but drafting at 18, he'd be a nice fit. I'd rather find a power forward that can rebound, score on the block, space the court and defend down low. I don't know if there's a power forward that can even give you three of those four but Payne can give you two and a half of them.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm aware of his problem but I also know that he has greatly improved his endurance over his college career. As a freshman he struggled to play double digit minutes and after intense conditioning work he's improved to the point where he can give you 30 minutes a night. He's not perfect but drafting at 18, he'd be a nice fit. I'd rather find a power forward that can rebound, score on the block, space the court and defend down low. I don't know if there's a power forward that can even give you three of those four but Payne can give you two and a half of them.

Steve

I like his game but as I said, there is a physical condition that can limit his career. The Suns medical staff would have to give him the green light for me to be comfortable. It sort of reminds me about the questions surrounding DeJuan Blair when he fell to the second round for an unrelated physical condition.

 

[slinslin]

Adreian Payne's beste case is that he develops into Markieff Morris.

 

[Joe Mama]

Adreian Payne's beste case is that he develops into Markieff Morris.

I don't think that's his ceiling and if you thought there was a decent chance he would develop into that kind of player he'd be a great pick at #18.

Joe

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't think that's his ceiling and if you thought there was a decent chance he would develop into that kind of player he'd be a great pick at #18.

Joe

Do you think his ceiling is lower? I don't really know if his ceiling is higher or lower than Markieff's but Payne is a legit 6'9 (in bare feet) and has a 7'4 wingspan, numbers we all wish Markieff had.

Regardless, I would be absolutely stunned if he was there at 18 and we didn't take him. He rebounds fairly well, gives effort on D, is a good 3 point shooter, can be used in the pick and roll or pick and pop and he has a decent inside game. I don't think he's the offensive force that Randle is nor does he have the up-side of Vonleh and he's nowhere near the defender that Gordon is but he's NBA ready and if we can't find a perfect four, settling for another stretch the floor forward seems to make sense. He also gets high marks for character and locker room presence.

Steve

 

[JCSunsfan]

I agree with Steve. None of the PFs seem to be great fits.
Gordon can't shoot and he can't post up. Randle can't shoot and he is not particularly athletic, and Vonleh is years away from contributing. I don't think the answer to the Suns' PF problem is in the draft this year. Now, don't get me wrong, I think Randle will be a solid player, and Vonleh has a lot of potential, so I would not be upset if the Suns traded up for one of them, but neither one of the three looks like an immediate answer to the PF problem.

James Young is my guy unless they manage to move up into top 5. Take the best player available, and look for a PF in free agency/ trades. Hell, I'd like to see what Morris can do starting and getting 30+ minutes per game.

Why can't Gordon play sf along side a stretch 4 like love, frye, or markieff? He can guard 3's and he can rebound.

 

[slinslin]

Do you think his ceiling is lower? I don't really know if his ceiling is higher or lower than Markieff's but Payne is a legit 6'9 (in bare feet) and has a 7'4 wingspan, numbers we all wish Markieff had.

Regardless, I would be absolutely stunned if he was there at 18 and we didn't take him. He rebounds fairly well, gives effort on D, is a good 3 point shooter, can be used in the pick and roll or pick and pop and he has a decent inside game. I don't think he's the offensive force that Randle is nor does he have the up-side of Vonleh and he's nowhere near the defender that Gordon is but he's NBA ready and if we can't find a perfect four, settling for another stretch the floor forward seems to make sense. He also gets high marks for character and locker room presence.

Steve

He is fools gold..

good 3 point shooter in college but his release his ugly, low and very slow...
on defense I have seen him regularly lose track of his man, its prety bad...
he measured decent athletically but he is slow-footed and not explosive..

Plus he has a lung condition, it is unusually small and restricts his stamina.

All in all he is a very low ceiling prospect. If he ever gets as good as Markieff was last year that is likely his best case imo!

 

[slinslin]

I don't think that's his ceiling and if you thought there was a decent chance he would develop into that kind of player he'd be a great pick at #18.

Joe

Hence why I said best case, realistically he is the next Anthony Tolliver.

 

[AzStevenCal]

He is fools gold..

good 3 point shooter in college but his release his ugly, low and very slow...
on defense I have seen him regularly lose track of his man, its prety bad...
he measured decent athletically but he is slow-footed and not explosive..

Plus he has a lung condition, it is unusually small and restricts his stamina.

All in all he is a very low ceiling prospect. If he ever gets as good as Markieff was last year that is likely his best case imo!

I think you overstate just about everything here. He does tend to wind up on the outside shot and it might be a problem with the quicker and longer NBA defenders but I've seen far worse. He isn't slow footed although he is slow to react at times, occasionally giving the impression that he's slow. As for his lung condition, it's nothing new. His lungs are smaller than they usually are for a person of his size but conditioning has made this much less of a problem.

The low ceiling comments are standard fare any time you have a senior coming out. They're probably true for Payne but the NBA is a different game than college and he looks better suited for this league. He isn't a natural basketball player so he might still have some room for improvement once it becomes his full time job but most of it will have to be upstairs. I don't have high hopes for it, typically players that don't fully understand the game at his age never do grasp it. But for a pick in the late teens he brings plenty of value IMO. If he were a smart player, he'd be looked at as a top 10 pick regardless of his other issues.

Steve

 

[WildBB]

Anybody like TJ Warren. Seems like he's got a pretty good shot - 52% while averaging almost 25ppg. He should be there at 14. Then Anderson with the next pick.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/T.J.-Warren-6436/

 

[AzStevenCal]

Anybody like TJ Warren. Seems like he's got a pretty good shot - 52% while averaging almost 25ppg. He should be there at 14. Then Anderson with the next pick.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/T.J.-Warren-6436/

I'd imagine he'll be there at 14 but hopefully he'll still be there at 15 too. He's a very effective scorer in college but he doesn't shoot the ball well from distance and he's one of the weaker rebounders for his size in this draft. He's also a poor defender. He'll probably be a pretty good rotation player in the right system but I just think he's a horrible fit for us. If he goes to a team with a very good center and a pure shooter at the wing, he could perhaps even become a star at the four spot but most teams will struggle to find a spot for him. I'd give him a try at the bottom of the round but I think we can find a good starter with our 14 pick.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Advanced stats analysis and projections of this draft love Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams. They are ranked generally only behind Embiid/Smart.

http://www.hickory-high.com/projecting-the-2014-nba-draft/

1. Jordan Adams
2. Marcus Smart
3. Kyle Anderson
4. Joel Embiid
5. Aaron Gordon

Jordan Adams is the wacky name that sticks out at the top, as he goes in the 30s in most mock drafts. There’s nothing super notable about Adams–the guy just puts up really good numbers across the board. He’s undersized and generally thought of as unathletic, but Adams shines in two “applied athleticism” stats–offensive rebound rate and steal rate.

Joel Embiid would have the top projection in this class, if not for his committing of 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes

Nobody with combined block and steal rates as low as McDermott’s has been a valuable NBA player.

Noah Vonleh would be much higher if not for an insanely low assist rate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=5

1. Joel Embiid
2. Kyle Anderson
3. Jordan Adams
4. Marcus Smart
5. Aaron Gordon

Here is another spreadsheet with historical data so you can check the accuracy of the prediction
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdFNWclZiY2dCVDhBYUpqNGZabE9qaWc#gid=1

http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1205

1. Joel Embiid
2. Marcus Smart
3. Jordan Adams
4. Kyle Anderson
5. Andrew Wiggings

3. Jordan Adams, SG UCLA: For now Adams is listed ahead of the 5 forwards, because I see him as more of a sure thing. Put simply, prospects who post the type of numbers Adams has for 2 seasons generally do very well as NBA players.

4. Kyle Anderson, Point Forward UCLA: Anderson and the 4 SFs listed right after him are all in the same boat. They all look like very good prospects. They all have some things about their games that are red flags. Consider the 5 forwards as a group that could be drafted in any order, depending on how the workouts go. Right now I’ll leave Anderson at the top, because I have a preference for player with a diverse set of skills

Maybe we should draft Anderson and Adams at #14 and #18

 

[slinslin]

Definitely makes me feel a lot better about just keeping our picks.

Seems like we could get GREAT value with our picks because Anderson and Adams should be there at #14 and #18.

Payton looks like he has a very real chance to go top 10. Lakers brought him in a second time.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Definitely makes me feel a lot better about just keeping our picks.

Seems like we could get GREAT value with our picks because Anderson and Adams should be there at #14 and #18.

Payton looks like he has a very real chance to go top 10. Lakers brought him in a second time.

I really liked Payton when I thought he might be available at the end of the first round. I don't know about top 10 though and I can't see any reason for him to move above Tyler Ennis.

Steve