2014 Draft morphing

[Russ Smith]

Advanced stats analysis and projections of this draft love Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams. They are ranked generally only behind Embiid/Smart.

http://www.hickory-high.com/projecting-the-2014-nba-draft/

1. Jordan Adams
2. Marcus Smart
3. Kyle Anderson
4. Joel Embiid
5. Aaron Gordon





https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=5

1. Joel Embiid
2. Kyle Anderson
3. Jordan Adams
4. Marcus Smart
5. Aaron Gordon

Here is another spreadsheet with historical data so you can check the accuracy of the prediction
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdFNWclZiY2dCVDhBYUpqNGZabE9qaWc#gid=1

http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1205

1. Joel Embiid
2. Marcus Smart
3. Jordan Adams
4. Kyle Anderson
5. Andrew Wiggings



Maybe we should draft Anderson and Adams at #14 and #18

Pulling for both kids but I have my reservations on both. Adams can score but he has trouble athletically and while he gets steals he got roasted on defense this year, ball watches way too much.

Kyle is a terrific offensive player but I don't know who he'll guard, not quick enough to guard smaller guys and not strong enough to guard bigs. He'll find a way to fit in he's just that type of kid, but I suspect defense will stop both of them from being as good as they look statistically.

All I know is UCLA was a top 10 team with them in the game and not very good with them on the bench

 

[PhxGametime]

Suns are bringing Kyle Anderson for another workout, according to Hoops Rumors. I'm not as high on him as others but if he could be anywhere close to Boris Diaw it might make sense. Boris Diaw was my favorite Prospect in Draft (whichever year it was) but he was much more athletic, coming into NBA. Diaw's athleticism dropped some by adding weight and Anderson if he needs more weight having to play forward, I'd worry because he's not an athlete, with size he currently is.

 

[SirStefan32]

The problem is that Diaw was never a terrible defender. Anderson couldn't guard a chair in college, and I am don't see how he will guard anyone in the NBA. I love 6'8 point-forwards, but they have got to be able to guard somebody. I really don't think Anderson will be able to guard even those "3 and D" small forwards.

Also, McD doesn't seem to like players who lack athleticism.

Having said all that, I like Anderson, and I'd probably take him at #18. Smart players find a way to be successful.

 

[slinslin]

Anderson is not a small forward. He will be a power forward and he will have to work on gaining strength and weigth asap.

Lamar Odom is the correct comparison for him. Altough that advanced analysis spreadsheet compares him to a filthy rich man's Luke Walton.

Anderson is much longer than Aaron Gordon. He has legit PF size.

 

[Mainstreet]

Anderson is not a small forward. He will be a power forward and he will have to work on gaining strength and weigth asap.

Lamar Odom is the correct comparison for him. Altough that advanced analysis spreadsheet compares him to a filthy rich man's Luke Walton.

Anderson is much longer than Aaron Gordon. He has legit PF size.

If the Suns project Anderson as a PF, I can see the interest.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Anderson is not a small forward. He will be a power forward and he will have to work on gaining strength and weigth asap.

Lamar Odom is the correct comparison for him. Altough that advanced analysis spreadsheet compares him to a filthy rich man's Luke Walton.

Anderson is much longer than Aaron Gordon. He has legit PF size.

It's amazing you're so confident on this as most of the scouting comments seem to say the same thing, they're really not sure what position he'll play. Offensively his skill set (minus an outside shot) is ideal for a true point guard even with his slow feet but defensively there is no position on the court that he can guard. He's a pretty good rebounder but other than that it looks like you're projecting him as a power forward more on what he can't do at other positions than what he can do as a four.

He might be the smartest player in this draft and he gets a lot out of his very limited physical gifts but he'll be a real project in the NBA. I think his best bet is to work his butt off for a couple of years to re-work his shot, improve his range and hopefully his lateral quickness. If he does that I could see him becoming an effective ball-handling combo forward like Hedo Turkoglu was 7 or 8 years ago. IMO, whoever drafts him will view him as grossly over-drafted in the next year or two but maybe not in five years.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Well he measured 6'9 with an almost 7'3 wingspan and 230lbs. His body fat is too high and he needs to add muscle but that should be a given when he works out professionally. That makes him a PF in my book.

 

[Mainstreet]

I just finished watching Anderson's scouting video at Draft Express. IMO, if he is drafted as a PF prospect, it will be a long road as he would really have to develop his body. He would be a long term project at any position and he may never get there. Watching him play is like watching a slow motion video. Also he cannot defend. His lack of athleticism, inability to defend, questionable shot yet good passing ability reminds me of a taller version of Kendall Marshall. I would not gamble on him at #14 or #18.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Well he measured 6'9 with an almost 7'3 wingspan and 230lbs. His body fat is too high and he needs to add muscle but that should be a given when he works out professionally. That makes him a PF in my book.

Then I'd suggest you're using the wrong book. There are a lot of people walking this planet that are 6'9 with similar wingspans and weights. It is an understatement to the extreme to say that they aren't all playing power forward in the NBA. He's been a point guard for most of his career and I'm pretty sure he's been a disappointment when he's been used elsewhere. The reason he is being considered for the NBA is because of his incredible point guard skills. The only reason to put him at the four spot is because he is too slow to play a guard spot in the NBA, it's not because of anything he's done on the court.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

I just finished watching Anderson's scouting video at Draft Express. IMO, if he is drafted as a PF prospect, it will be a long road as he would really have to develop his body. He would be a long term project at any position and he may never get there. Watching him play is like watching a slow motion video. Also he cannot defend. His lack of athleticism, inability to defend, questionable shot yet good passing ability reminds me of a taller version of Kendall Marshall. I would not gamble on him at #14 or #18.

Brandon Roy on the other hand or James Harden are not exactly great athletes either and did fine, this is more promising concerning Jordan Adams of course.

The thing is Anderson does not really need to add that much more weight, he just has to turn some fat into muscle. 6'9 230lbs is decent.

The traditional post up PF does not really exist anymore anyway. Anderson should guard power forwards and on offense he will occasionally makes plays or spot up as he shoots a good percentage.

Don't expect him to back down anyone.

The thing is he is no more of a gamble than any other player at #14 or #18. If you believe in advanced analytics as posted above he is one of the surest things in the entire draft.

Of course those predictions are far from perfect but when you look at their past predictions I would say they are considerably closer than the traditional scouting rankings.

Personally Kyle Anderson does not pass the eyeball test for me either and I was initially advocating to stay away from his as far as possible but I am a believer in these advanced analytics and prediction algorithms to revert my personal opinion.

Jordan Adams is someone I always thought had amazing statistics, it is no surprise he ranks so well. It is surprising that the draft sites still rank him so low as I believe a lot of front offices will have this kind of advanced data available.

 

[Superbone]

Then I'd suggest you're using the wrong book. There are a lot of people walking this planet that are 6'9 with similar wingspans and weights. It is an understatement to the extreme to say that they aren't all playing power forward in the NBA. He's been a point guard for most of his career and I'm pretty sure he's been a disappointment when he's been used elsewhere. The reason he is being considered for the NBA is because of his incredible point guard skills. The only reason to put him at the four spot is because he is too slow to play a guard spot in the NBA, it's not because of anything he's done on the court.

Steve

Wasn't Magic Johnson a power forward in his book too?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Wasn't Magic Johnson a power forward in his book too?

this clip accurately describes my thoughts whenever slin says something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbS2KSRUVHo

 

[SirStefan32]

this clip accurately describes my thoughts whenever slin says something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbS2KSRUVHo

Heh, Kelsey Grammer's facial expression while listening to Cliff is exactly the same expression I have when I read Slin's posts.

 

[slinslin]

this clip accurately describes my thoughts whenever slin says something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbS2KSRUVHo

Your weak trolling attempts might actually hurt if you were not a certified idiot.

 

[slinslin]

ranking the draft by WARP

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ton-prospect-projection-rankings?refresh=true

1. Marcus Smart 3.6
2. Clint Capela 3.4
3. Jusuf Nurkic 3.3
4. Dante Exum 3.3
5. Jordan Adams 3.0
6. Joel Embiid 2.9
7. Jabari Parker 2.5
8. Noah Vonleh 2.4
9. PJ Hairston 2.0
10. Tyler Ennis 2.0
11. Gary Harris 1.9
12. Jarnell Stokes 1.9
13. Doug McDermott 1.8
14. Aaron Gordon 1.7
15. Julius Randle 1.6
16. Kyle Anderson 1.5
17. KJ McDaniels 1.5
18. Dario Saric 1.4
19. Andrew Wiggins 1.3
20. Nik Stauskas 1.2
21. Shabazz Napier 1.1
22. Zach Lavine 0.9
23. James Young 0.8
24. Elfrid Payton 0.8
25. TJ Warren 0.6
26. Cleathony Early 0.0
27. Adreian Payne -0.1
28. Rodney Hood -0.2
29. Jerami Grant -0.4
30. Jordan Clarkson -0.5


Second-round steals

1. Nikola Jokic, C, Serbia
Win%: .468 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 3.1

Reports originally indicated Jokic would pull his name out of the draft before Monday's deadline. But he stayed in, ostensibly after getting a draft promise. Whoever takes Jokic in the second round will be getting a top-five value, statistically.

 

[Chaplin]

Breaking News: ESPN is saying that Embiid might have broken his foot today.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Breaking News: ESPN is saying that Embiid might have broken his foot today.

if this is true, I'd have huge reservations about drafting him in the top 4. big men who's body already has broken down in his back and his foot screams to me a guy who's body isn't medically built for contact sports at the highest level.

I mean, we're talking two non-contact injuries already for a kid who just started playing? that's bad news for a big man.

 

[SirStefan32]

Some ******* GM is still gonna draft him in top 3. I guarantee it.

 

[chickenhead]

Simmons tweeting:

Confirming Jeff Goodman's report: Embiid has a foot injury (origin unclear), getting it evaluated today. Won't work out for any more teams.https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/479648903805935618

Also hearing Cavs were scared off by Embiid's foot, now focusing on Jabari or Wiggins (Jabari is the favorite). Unbelievable turn of events.

If/when Cavs take Jabari, Bucks are screwed (they wanted Jabari) + Sixers are screwed (they wanted Wiggins). Could Embiid drop to Bos or LA?

Also - major ramifications for Boston's potential Kevin Love deal. Can't see them giving up the farm for Love if Embiid might fall to 6.

Also hearing that Arn Tellem wanted Embiid to go first... but if that can't happen, he's going to push hard to steer him to Boston or LA.

 

[NoelPHX]

Shall we collect Centers with screwed up feet with potential? Maybe we can combine them both LenEmbiid or EmbiidLen. With our medical staff it may be possible!

 

[Russ Smith]

It's amazing you're so confident on this as most of the scouting comments seem to say the same thing, they're really not sure what position he'll play. Offensively his skill set (minus an outside shot) is ideal for a true point guard even with his slow feet but defensively there is no position on the court that he can guard. He's a pretty good rebounder but other than that it looks like you're projecting him as a power forward more on what he can't do at other positions than what he can do as a four.

He might be the smartest player in this draft and he gets a lot out of his very limited physical gifts but he'll be a real project in the NBA. I think his best bet is to work his butt off for a couple of years to re-work his shot, improve his range and hopefully his lateral quickness. If he does that I could see him becoming an effective ball-handling combo forward like Hedo Turkoglu was 7 or 8 years ago. IMO, whoever drafts him will view him as grossly over-drafted in the next year or two but maybe not in five years.

Steve

He's a very good rebounder although it should be pointed out that UCLA somewhat inflated his defensive rebounds by design. He was so good at getting the ball and then pushing it upcourt with a hit ahead pass that you'd routinely see another big on the team let the ball go so Kyle would get the rebound. Not to pad his stats, but to avoid having to outlet it to Kyle to start the break. Just has really long arms and a knack for where the ball is going.

He improved his shot immensely his soph year but his release is still too slow it has to get much quicker in the NBA.

I agree the question on him has always been who will he guard. At UCLA his offense was so good it more than offset his defense, it remains to be seen if that will be the case in the NBA.

 

[slinslin]

There is no way Embiid drops to LA or Boston because of that. Injury or not he still is by far the best upside pick in the entire draft. At worst he should go #5 behind Parker, Wiggins, Exum and possibly Smart but that is really stretching it.

If Embiid did fall so far, we better get on the phone to trade up for him and sit him for the year similiar to what we did with Len.

Edit: Ok the newest rumors say it is the worst kind of bone to break in the foot. Same injury that forced Yao to retire. same injury that Ilgauskas had but managed. Embiid could miss the entire next season and then it can still have lingering effects and his career could be cut short.
I guess this means he could fall far but that also means there is nothing to worry if 'Boston or LA get Embiid because his value is shot.

For the unlikely case that he falls all the way to us I would still of course draft him with the mere hope of him getting healthy.

 

[Mainstreet]

Suns workout updates from Paul Coro:

Paul Coro @paulcoro · 5h

The #Suns will have a second workout today with two international players: Latvian 6-9 SF Ojars Silins and Swedish 6-8 SF Viktor Gaddefors.

Today's main #Suns workout: Syracuse PG T. Ennis, Wichita SF C. Early, L'ville PG R. Smith (visit #2), OSU F E. Moreland, Cincy F J. Jackson

https://twitter.com/paulcoro

This is the second visit for PG Russ Smith. Has anyone kept a record of second visits?

 

[Hoop Head]

This is the second visit for PG Russ Smith. Has anyone kept a record of second visits?

According to an article I just read on Suns.com Russ Smith is the first prospect to visit twice. I know he's projected in the second round by most but given this info he may be targeted at #27 if we keep that pick? I don't imagine he goes before then.


http://www.nba.com/suns/news/ennis-impresses-early-shoots-smith-comes-back

 

[Mainstreet]

According to an article I just read on Suns.com Russ Smith is the first prospect to visit twice. I know he's projected in the second round by most but given this info he may be targeted at #27 if we keep that pick? I don't imagine he goes before then.


http://www.nba.com/suns/news/ennis-impresses-early-shoots-smith-comes-back

I sometimes get the feeling that the Suns may trade a first round pick or two and get another second round pick or two in return. The Suns have evaluated a ton of second round talent. If Russ Smith can play the PG position under control making the right decisions (he seems to play a street ball style), he can certainly play defense. This is not often said of a 6' guard. He knows how to stay in front of his man on defense and has excellent lateral quickness and good hands. I think the Suns view Smith as a second round pick although I can certainly be wrong.