2016 NBA Draft thread

[Finito]

Sabonis for me if we pick 3-5

 

[JCSunsfan]

Sabonis for me if we pick 3-5

I really like him, but I think he will be there with the Washington pick.

 

[Errntknght]

I really like him, but I think he will be there with the Washington pick.

The Washington pick is not going be #12... they have a very soft schedule remaining and making the playoffs is not unlikely so it could be as high as 17.
If Sabonis is who McD likes I won't complain if he reaches for him at 5.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Has he moved up that far? Is he now a 11-15 pick?

 

[overseascardfan]

Has he moved up that far? Is he now a 11-15 pick?

He's been in the Top 15 in mocks (well NBA Draft Net at least) for a couple of months.

 

[leclerc]

I agree (with Sabonis at #5) since it's probably all about the first two. I trust whoever they pick whenever will be a pretty good choice. How they are playing themselves out of a great draft position is frustrating and hard to comprehend however. I'm close to stop caring and just tune in again next year.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I agree (with Sabonis at #5) since it's probably all about the first two. I trust whoever they pick whenever will be a pretty good choice. How they are playing themselves out of a great draft position is frustrating and hard to comprehend however. I'm close to stop caring and just tune in again next year.

You realize that we looked like a 12 pick or worse early in the season, played ourselves into the 3rd position and are now in the 4th spot where we will likely remain? A lot of angst for so little impact IMO. Are you really this disappointed over losing the prime shot at Bender? We've slightly decreased our odds of hitting it big but did anyone really think we were going to beat those odds?

 

[Mainstreet]

You realize that we looked like a 12 pick or worse early in the season, played ourselves into the 3rd position and are now in the 4th spot where we will likely remain? A lot of angst for so little impact IMO. Are you really this disappointed over losing the prime shot at Bender? We've slightly decreased our odds of hitting it big but did anyone really think we were going to beat those odds?

The Suns have never done well even with 50/50 odds. What the Suns need is some luck which has alluded the organization.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The Suns have never done well even with 50/50 odds. What the Suns need is some luck which has alluded the organization.

I'm mostly optimistic and usually go into the draft hoping, almost expecting, that we'll get lucky. Because of this, I want us to lose as often as possible. That way we'll have the best position possible and the best chance to get lucky. But the realist in me knows it probably isn't going to matter.

What's worse, the little pessimistic voice inside me says we're going to finally beat the odds this year. And our number one draft pick will turn out to be a mediocre NBA player. But that's a fear, not a prediction so don't call me a fortune teller if it actually happens. I still think we'll get lucky. I just don't know if it will be because we're drafting at the top or if it's because we slipped to a spot where we can take the player that a decade later we would have have wished we'd taken.

 

[leclerc]

We're not going to win it if we're not in it. I just go by the math and not our history. Higher percentage is always better. At the same time (as losing games) we can rest old/star players and develop talent. Win win win while losing.

But I think I have complained for long enough. Will try to catch some college hoops.

 

[slinslin]

The Washington pick is not going be #12... they have a very soft schedule remaining and making the playoffs is not unlikely so it could be as high as 17.
If Sabonis is who McD likes I won't complain if he reaches for him at 5.

The Washington pick is going to be 12 or 13.

They have a soft schedule but they have to overtake two of Chicago, Indiana and Detroit and they are 3 wins behind Detroit and Indiana with only 11 games to go.

What is really important is that Minnesota beats Washington today and us on Monday.

 

[hsandhu]

We got lucky with brooklyn beating the cavs. Stop messing around, sit booker or len for next 3 games. Then after that sit the other for the next 3.

Seriously, the lakers are basically talking about tanking, and we have been messing around the last couple weeks.

 

[3rdside]

Assuming keef carries on behaving, and we end up picking 12 or 13, that's a good trade for them and for us.


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[3rdside]

But arguably better for them; a bird in the hand and all that.


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[Phrazbit]

But arguably better for them; a bird in the hand and all that.


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Kieff is on his best behavior and trying his butt off... and the result is what Kieff has been for about 90% of his career, a virtually replacement level big man.

His good midrange game pulls wool over many eyes. It looks pretty on film when it works, but it is a play style that is inherently inefficient. His one skill is arguably the least valuable "skill" in the modern NBA, and at other facets of the game he ranges from below average to lousy.

He is a reserve player on any decent team and you don't trade lotto picks for reserves.

 

[3rdside]

It's another one we'll have to wait and see on but his 13-14 season (unless you are you saying two people had fluke seasons on the same team in the same year?) where he went 14pts 6rbs for PER 18.4 on .564ts% is a decent benchmark; at that rate he's probably a starter.

His last 10 games, funnily enough he's averaging nearly exactly that after a very slow start.


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[Phrazbit]

It's another one we'll have to wait and see on but his 13-14 season (unless you are you saying two people had fluke seasons on the same team in the same year?) where he went 14pts 6rbs for PER 18.4 on .564ts% is a decent benchmark; at that rate he's probably a starter.

His last 10 games, funnily enough he's averaging nearly exactly that after a very slow start.


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14 and 6... those are essentially replacement level stats. If you're getting those numbers from a guy who is in there because of his offensive talent (and that talent comes as an ISO player) then you should probably be looking for an upgrade.

It would be one thing if Morris was the kind of guy to put up his 14 points within the smooth flow of team offense, but he does not do that. Even when Kieff is playing well, he gets the ball and the game grinds to a halt as he does his isolation routine. Its lousy team offense... and it is his specialty, he doesn't really do anything else at serviceable rate.

So, no, I don't care if he does replicate those pedestrian numbers, I'd rather have the pick and I suspect most Wizards fans would too.

 

[Errntknght]

The Washington pick is going to be 12 or 13.

They have a soft schedule but they have to overtake two of Chicago, Indiana and Detroit and they are 3 wins behind Detroit and Indiana with only 11 games to go.

What is really important is that Minnesota beats Washington today and us on Monday.

If Minny beats the Wiz today, it will help but Markieff is actually helping them a bit, believe it or not - one reason is that they can bring Dudley off the bench and thats a better role for him. They are currently 14th and Chi is only one game ahead of them - and struggling. They are very likely to pass the Bulls - and if they beat the Wolves today they'll only be two games behind Detroit (They're 2.5 back now.)

 

[3rdside]

14 and 6... those are essentially replacement level stats. If you're getting those numbers from a guy who is in there because of his offensive talent (and that talent comes as an ISO player) then you should probably be looking for an upgrade.

It would be one thing if Morris was the kind of guy to put up his 14 points within the smooth flow of team offense, but he does not do that. Even when Kieff is playing well, he gets the ball and the game grinds to a halt as he does his isolation routine. Its lousy team offense... and it is his specialty, he doesn't really do anything else at serviceable rate.

So, no, I don't care if he does replicate those pedestrian numbers, I'd rather have the pick and I suspect most Wizards fans would too.

All I said was that it was a good trade for both sides; I'd rather the pick and if he carries on at 14 and 6 they'd rather the player. If Morris hadn't have carried on like such a pork chop I'd also rather have him than the pick; bird in hand like I said.

Redoing draft 2011 how many guys definitely go before him, 8 maybe? How many busts get taken with the 12th or 13th pick?

There's the upside in the trade for the Wizards right there.


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[Phrazbit]

All I said was that it was a good trade for both sides; I'd rather the pick and if he carries on at 14 and 6 they'd rather the player. If Morris hadn't have carried on like such a pork chop I'd also rather have him than the pick; bird in hand like I said.

Redoing draft 2011 how many guys definitely go before him, 8 maybe? How many busts get taken with the 12th or 13th pick?

There's the upside in the trade for the Wizards right there.


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No, as things are playing out this trade is an unmitigated disaster for the Wizards. They made no secret about what their goal with the trade was, they want the playoffs and they want them now. It is irrelevant where Morris was drafted.

This is like if in Feb of 2015 the Suns, in their desperation to make the playoffs, had shipped off their 1st round pick for some player like Trevor Ariza, then missed the playoffs anyway. People here would have gone ballistic, rightfully so. Just as if you take the pulse of Wizards fan they're ready to draw and quarter Grunfeld.

 

[JCSunsfan]

No, as things are playing out this trade is an unmitigated disaster for the Wizards. They made no secret about what their goal with the trade was, they want the playoffs and they want them now. It is irrelevant where Morris was drafted.

This is like if in Feb of 2015 the Suns, in their desperation to make the playoffs, had shipped off their 1st round pick for some player like Trevor Ariza, then missed the playoffs anyway. People here would have gone ballistic, rightfully so. Just as if you take the pulse of Wizards fan they're ready to draw and quarter Grunfeld.

The Wizards draft record has been horrible. I am sure they had no confidence whatsoever they would be able to pick a better player then Markieff there.

 

[Phrazbit]

The Wizards draft record has been horrible. I am sure they had no confidence whatsoever they would be able to pick a better player then Markieff there.

Just more evidence that their GM is incompetent. If you suck in the draft you'll never contend in the NBA.

 

[slinslin]

Minnesota beat Washington

Detroit beats Atlanta

Will be very hard for Washington to make the playoffs.

 

[Hoop Head]

I posted this in the Lakers vs Suns thread also, it's about the chances of moving up, down, or staying while getting either the 3rd or 4th worst record. I'm putting it here because it belongs in the draft thread as well. It's pretty apparent the Suns won't be finishing with the worst or 2nd worst record and finishing either 3rd or 4th is most likely.


Here is breakdown of where the 3rd worst and 4th worst teams picked since 1990. No spot has a clear cut advantage except the 3rd overall is guaranteed to pick no later than 6th and the 4th worst at 7th. I know this is viewed as a 2 player draft and the 3rd worst record has picked #1 or #2 7 times while the 4th worst has 5 times. Both have basically fallen the same amount of times while staying and improving the same amount. The 4th has improved more but there is more room to improve from there.

The 3rd spot has fallen 15 times, stayed 4 times, and moved up 7 times over 26 years.
The 4th spot has fallen 14 times, stayed 2 times, and moved up 10 times.

3rd Overall....................................4th Overall
2015 - 3rd Overall (Stayed)......2015 - 2nd Overall (+2)
2014 - 4th Overall (-1).............2014 - 5th Overall (-1)
2013 - 1st Overall (+2)............2013 - 5th Overall (-1)
2012 - 4th Overall (-1).............2012 - 1st Overall (+3)
2011 - 5th Overall (-2).............2011 - 6th Overall (-2)
2010 - 5th Overall (-2).............2010 - 6th Overall (-2)
2009 - 1st Overall (+2)............2009 - 3rd Overall (+1)
2008 - 3rd Overall (Stayed)......2008 - 3rd Overall (+1)
2007 - 6th Overall (-3).............2007 - 3rd Overall (+1)
2006 - 3rd Overall (Stayed)......2006 - 5th Overall (-1)
2005 - 5th Overall (-2).............2005 - 3rd Overall (+1)
2004 - 5th Overall (-2).............2004 - 4th Overall (Stayed)
2003 - 4th Overall (-1).............2003 - 5th Overall (-1)
2002 - 4th Overall (-1).............2002 - 5th Overall (-1)
2001 - 1st Overall (+2)............2001 - 6th Overall (-2)
2000 - 5th Overall (-2).............2000 - 2nd Overall (+2)
1999 - 1st Overall (+2)............1999 - 5th Overall (-1)
1998 - 1st Overall (+2)............1998 - 5th Overall (-1)
1997 - 1st Overall (+2)............1997 - 5th Overall (-1)
1996 - 2nd Overall (+1)...........1996 - 4th Overall (Stayed)
1995 - 5th Overall (-2)............1995 - 3rd Overall (+1)
1994 - 4th Overall (-1)............1994 - 1st Overall (+3)
1993 - 6th Overall (-3)............1993 - 7th Overall (-3)
1992 - 4th Overall (-1)............1992 - 5th Overall (-1)
1991 - 3rd Overall (Stayed).....1991 - 2nd Overall (+2)
1990 - 4th Overall (-1)............1990 - 5th Overall (-1)



*I tried to edit this so the picks would appear next to each other rather than having 2 separate lists and 1 really long post.

Credit goes to Real GM for providing a draft breakdown. I had to pull everything from there manually though.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_results/2015

 

[Ronin]

I really like Mike Tobey....maybe we could use a second round pick on him?