The Case for Zhou Qi
- Zhou Qi ranks as the #1 prospect in Kevin Pelton's WARP projections, despite being #48 on the big board. Pelton's WARP projetions have been good at finding diamonds in the rough before among lower rated prospects. Some examples: In 2006 Millsap ranked 2nd in WARP and was picked 47th, Rondo rated 6th in WARP and was picked 21st. In 2007 Rudy Fernandez ranked 3rd in WARP and was picked 24th. In 2008 Chalmers was ranked 5th in WARP and was picked 34th. Koufos ranked 9th in WARP and was picked 23rd. In 2009 Lawson and Jrue were ranks 7th and 8th in WARP and went 18th and 17th. In 2010 Whiteside was ranked 5th in WARP but went 33rd. In 2011 Kenneth Faried ranked 1st in WARP and was picked 22nd and Reggie Jackson was ranked 10th and went 24th. In 2012 Draymond Green and Jae Crowder were ranked 3rd and 4th in WARP, and went 35th and 34th. You get the point. Players with top ten WARPs are almost always good NBA players, and Qi's is first in the draft this year.
- Zhou Qi has averaged the highest block rate in the Chinese Basketball Association on record. That list includes many NBA big men, and it isn't close.
- Out of 149 qualified players in the CBA, Qi's PER ranks 18th, at 22.1, great for a 20 year old. And as a 19 year old it was even better at 22.6. For reference, Mudiay finished last year with a 17.9 PER in the CBA. Qi's PER is higher than other players in the league with NBA experience, like Ike Diogu (21.3), Von Wafer (21), Hamed Haddadi (20.7), Jason Maxiell (20.5), Bernard James (20.3), A.J. Price (20.4), Andrew Goudelock (19.5), Jeremy Pargo (18.9), and Dominic McGuire (18.6). Obviously a lot of those are just fringe NBA players, or at best role players, but when you consider that Qi is 20 and most of them are between 24-33, now playing in their primes, it is impressive. It gives confidence that even if he doesn't reach his ceiling, his floor is probably high enough for him to make an NBA roster, which is not a bad outcome to get from a late first or second round pick.
- Zhou Qi has the highest offensive rating in the entire CBA. He has the highest true shooting percentage as well. It may not be the most competitive league in the world, but it is still a league that contains players like Andray Blatche, Michael Beasley, MarShon Brooks, and Dorell Wright. Those aren't scrubs. Qi is shooting over 60% from the field, and shot almost 70% the year before. That's especially impressive given the high volume of jumpers Qi takes. He also gets to the line at the second highest rate of any CBA player, and shoots almost 76% from it, another example of his touch.
- Qi is also not just a stat stuffer, and this isn't an issue of small sample size. Qi played the most total minutes for Xinjiang Guanghui, a team that went 33-12, good for 3rd in the league. Qi played more total minutes than his teammates Goudelock, Blatche, or Bryce Cotton. He finished 3rd on the team in ppg (15.8), 2nd in rpg (9.8), 2nd in spg (1.1), and 1st in bpg (3.2).
