2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[JCSunsfan]

and Nash was the exception to the rule... which is why he was drafted at 16. Drafting the next exception to the rule with a top 3 pick doesn't seem smart to me.

Nash could shoot efficiently.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Plus he's more proven playing in the euro league. Not a one and done fella.

This is way overstated. If Doncic puts up the numbers in the NBA that he puts up in the Euroleague (a lesser league) he will be a disappointment. But, even if he does become some sort of James Harden light, which is probably his best role, he is not that good of a fit on this team.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Nash could shoot efficiently.

Interesting note, Nash shot 34% in his senior season in college and that was the short college three (TBF he was quite good in his other three college seasons).

As for overall efficiency Doncic's shooting splits this year are 47%/32%/81% and Nash's in his senior year were 43%/34%/89%. I would say that is pretty close to even overall.

 

[GatorAZ]

Steve Nash in incomparable. He doesn’t make sense.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

This is way overstated. If Doncic puts up the numbers in the NBA that he puts up in the Euroleague (a lesser league) he will be a disappointment. But, even if he does become some sort of James Harden light, which is probably his best role, he is not that good of a fit on this team.

Why the "light" part though? I see no reason why he can't be every bit as good as Harden if he hits near his ceiling. As for his numbers there a few things to consider. For one he is only playing about 25 minutes per game (no one on his team plays more than that for the most part). He is playing in a league with a different style and pace of play (they play much slower than the very high pace way that the NBA is playing right now). He will get better than he currently is and thus his numbers over time will continue to go up. When all of those things are considered I don't see much reason to think he wouldn't be putting up bigger numbers in the NBA in due time.

 

[hsandhu]

This is way overstated. If Doncic puts up the numbers in the NBA that he puts up in the Euroleague (a lesser league) he will be a disappointment. But, even if he does become some sort of James Harden light, which is probably his best role, he is not that good of a fit on this team.

Agree 100%.

and I say that even as I may be changing my mind on his ceiling. If all the hype is legit and he becomes a harden light, guess what suns already have that same skill set covered with booker!

And with Jackson development why would make our potential 3rd star a 3rd wing?

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The offense is going to run through Booker at least a decent amount of possessions as it is and thus do we really need a PG that will handle and run the offense all of the time? Doncic would do most of the ball handling and running of the offense, but so will Booker and when the offense is going through Booker, Doncic will be very effective off the ball as well. It would be a very difficult trio of players to plan for (Doncic, Booker, Jackson) because all three can create off the dribble both for themselves and for others.

That being said hopefully we get the #1 pick and take Ayton. Then we can just trade for someone like Kemba and then we won't have to even worry about this debate.

 

[hsandhu]

The offense is going to run through Booker at least a decent amount of possessions as it is and thus do we really need a PG that will handle and run the offense all of the time? Doncic would do most of the ball handling and running of the offense, but so will Booker and when the offense is going through Booker, Doncic will be very effective off the ball as well. It would be a very difficult trio of players to plan for (Doncic, Booker, Jackson) because all three can create off the dribble both for themselves and for others.

That being said hopefully we get the #1 pick and take Ayton. Then we can just trade for someone like Kemba and then we won't have to even worry about this debate.

I think everyone agrees ayton number 1, but I'm saying no to doncic at 2. I'm happily going bagley, who is 6 11 and FASTER than doncic. I think most are happy with bagley at 2.

MAYBE I can be talked into doncic at 3, I'm still not there yet. If mpj was healthy, no brainer, perfect 4 in today's nba. Right Now not sure about the 3 spot, hopefully it we are there someone else takes donci c at 2

 

[pokerface]

you completely missed the point.

I get it...top three isn't worthy of Doncic. You think it's too high....

 

[pokerface]

I think everyone agrees ayton number 1, but I'm saying no to doncic at 2. I'm happily going bagley, who is 6 11 and FASTER than doncic. I think most are happy with bagley at 2.

MAYBE I can be talked into doncic at 3, I'm still not there yet. If mpj was healthy, no brainer, perfect 4 in today's nba. Right Now not sure about the 3 spot, hopefully it we are there someone else takes donci c at 2

I think Doncic is bpa at three...maybe even at two.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think everyone agrees ayton number 1, but I'm saying no to doncic at 2. I'm happily going bagley, who is 6 11 and FASTER than doncic. I think most are happy with bagley at 2.

MAYBE I can be talked into doncic at 3, I'm still not there yet. If mpj was healthy, no brainer, perfect 4 in today's nba. Right Now not sure about the 3 spot, hopefully it we are there someone else takes donci c at 2

This board is the only place I have seen so many people that think so highly of Bagley. A lot of mock drafts have have him between 3-5 and a ton of the posters on other sites that I frequent tend to rank him in the 4-5 range of the draft. A player that tends to be above him is JJJ and I think it is because they see the next Embiid/KAT in him (oddly enough the college numbers of those three are eerily similar and all 3 were underutilized on talented college teams).

 

[hsandhu]

This board is the only place I have seen so many people that think so highly of Bagley. A lot of mock drafts have have him between 3-5 and a ton of the posters on other sites that I frequent tend to rank him in the 4-5 range of the draft. A player that tends to be above him is JJJ and I think it is because they see the next Embiid/KAT in him (oddly enough the college numbers of those three are eerily similar and all 3 were underutilized on talented college teams).

NBADraft.net has bagley at #2. I've seen espn analysts since he came out talking about him being around #2.

The pray at the alter of analytics crew on other boards has jjj above him because of freaking blocked shot percentage. Ignoring every freaking thing else.

I'm not saying in 5 years bagley for sure will be the better player, but... I cant speak for why others have him at 2, but for me

a freaking 6'11 big man, with not quite josh jackson speed, but in the ballpark. who actually produced big numbers as an 18 year old in college? And his jumper only started to develop at the end of the year, imagine he gets that, his handles keep getting better, his body gets stronger, that's going to be an impossible cover. Go around every big man, post up smaller players.

 

[hsandhu]

Also gambo has been talking like ayton and bagley are the two tops on the suns board.. so it seems suns have a very high opinion of bagley as well

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

NBADraft.net has bagley at #2. I've seen espn analysts since he came out talking about him being around #2.

The pray at the alter of analytics crew on other boards has jjj above him because of freaking blocked shot percentage. Ignoring every freaking thing else.

I'm not saying in 5 years bagley for sure will be the better player, but... I cant speak for why others have him at 2, but for me

a freaking 6'11 big man, with not quite josh jackson speed, but in the ballpark. who actually produced big numbers as an 18 year old in college? And his jumper only started to develop at the end of the year, imagine he gets that, his handles keep getting better, his body gets stronger, that's going to be an impossible cover. Go around every big man, post up smaller players.

I actually like Bagley as a prospect. I personally have him 3rd just behind Doncic and Ayton as the clear #1. I have Doncic and Bagley close enough that if the Suns had the #2 pick and took Bagley I would not be upset. I just think Doncic will be a better pro than Bagley and I also think Doncic will be more ready to contribute from day 1 than Bagley.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Also gambo has been talking like ayton and bagley are the two tops on the suns board.. so it seems suns have a very high opinion of bagley as well

Gambo has no insights as to who the Suns have at the top of their board. That is his speculation likely due to needing bigs more than anything else. Also it is still quite early to even assume that Suns have a board put together that actually ranks players. They still have a ton of interviews and workouts to take care of before the draft to get their board figured out.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I still really like Young and think he is going to be a great pro.

 

[GatorAZ]

I want to see Ayton’s standing reach. You can’t trust those HS measurements.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I want to see Ayton’s standing reach. You can’t trust those HS measurements.

9'3" according to the Nike Hoops Summit and they tend to be very close to the NBA combine numbers. That is pretty elite, especially when you also consider how wide he is.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Lets just get Ayton and Young and call it good. Get the first pick. Get Ayton. Young drops to seven so we move 15, 16, 31, and next years #1 (or TJ) and get Young.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think Bagley ranks ahead of Doncic for a lot of people because he seems like more of a sure thing. Bagley's potential to bust is much smaller than Doncic's, I think he has best chance of being a good NBA player of any of the top prospects, Ayton included. Ayton should be a good pro, I don't think he'll be a bust but I'd say the likelihood that Bagley is a bust is really small, like maybe 5% chance. Ayton should be a really good pro also but I think he's more likely to be a bust in the NBA than Bagley, although not by much, maybe an 8% chance if I have Bagley at 5%. Doncic worries me a lot, similar to Porter, but for different reasons. I think both of them have maybe a 25% chance they're busts. Porter because of injuries and Doncic for being a position-less Euro who may not be able to find a role that suits his style of play on the team that drafts him roster. The fit for him is something to consider, much more than any of the other top prospects. He may be a PG or he may be a Point Forward playing the 3 somewhere. It wouldn't surprise me if a team tried playing him at SG either.

 

[pokerface]

I think Bagley ranks ahead of Doncic for a lot of people because he seems like more of a sure thing. Bagley's potential to bust is much smaller than Doncic's, I think he has best chance of being a good NBA player of any of the top prospects, Ayton included. Ayton should be a good pro, I don't think he'll be a bust but I'd say the likelihood that Bagley is a bust is really small, like maybe 5% chance. Ayton should be a really good pro also but I think he's more likely to be a bust in the NBA than Bagley, although not by much, maybe an 8% chance if I have Bagley at 5%. Doncic worries me a lot, similar to Porter, but for different reasons. I think both of them have maybe a 25% chance they're busts. Porter because of injuries and Doncic for being a position-less Euro who may not be able to find a role that suits his style of play on the team that drafts him roster. The fit for him is something to consider, much more than any of the other top prospects. He may be a PG or he may be a Point Forward playing the 3 somewhere. It wouldn't surprise me if a team tried playing him at SG either.

Your speculation is unfounded. You probably have a big man bias with a little bit of fear for euro's. What makes Doncic so much more bust worthy?? Bagley played one year of college. Doncic has I believe three years in their pro league. He puts up very good stats and by all accounts has a killer instinct about the game. That shouldn't be discounted.

I'd be happy with Bagley and think he brings a lot to the table but Doncic seems every bit the real deal.

 

[Hoop Head]

Your speculation is unfounded. You probably have a big man bias with a little bit of fear for euro's. What makes Doncic so much more bust worthy?? Bagley played one year of college. Doncic has I believe three years in their pro league. He puts up very good stats and by all accounts has a killer instinct about the game. That shouldn't be discounted.

I'd be happy with Bagley and think he brings a lot to the table but Doncic seems every bit the real deal.

I'm skeptical of Doncic specifically, not Euro's in general and that doesn't mean I have a big man bias. I worry about what position Doncic will play in the NBA, on the Suns particularly. I don't know if he could be a full time PG in the NBA, he's not even a full time PG in Europe right now. I'm not the only person who questions that either, look around what others are saying, I'm not the only person here that questions his ability to play PG in the NBA. Even beyond posters here, look at his scouting reports, almost all of them project a different position for him. It's not as simple as saying he's a PG and he'll play PG. If it were that easy then Booker would have done great when Triano called him our starting PG earlier this year but he struggled there.

Just because you've convinced yourself that Doncic is the #2 or #3 prospect in this draft doesn't mean that others have done the same. If the Suns take him and it turns out he can't play PG full time then they would need to find time for him on the wing where we already have two core players at, three if you count Warren. So where will he get playing time? As a 6th man? If that's what the Suns end up with from this draft, a good 6th man, I think that would be considered a failure on the team's part. There are some great PF and C prospects available in this draft and the Suns are in dire need of both. They should definitely lean towards drafting a big to fill those holes. I wouldn't be against taking Trae Young if he's the best prospect on the board when the Suns pick though because there isn't any question about him playing PG in the NBA. He's done so very well in the NCAA this year, leading the country in assists, and he also has virtually unlimited shooting range. He would be a great fit next to Booker in the backcourt for years to come.

 

[Hoop Head]

All players have bust potential. Euros or NCAA players. Because of the questions about where Doncic will play in the NBA I think he's more likely to bust. He could be drafted by a team that doesn't use him as the position he should be playing so he's not able to be as good as he could be. There isn't a question of where Bagley will play, he's a PF who can probably play some Center also. Those positions are quite similar in the NBA today. However the differences between a wing player and point guard are quite different. That's why you can't just plug a good wing in as PG and expect them to be as productive.

Also with Euro players they not only have to adjust to a new league and style of play but get used to living in an entirely different country and culture. Some don't handle that part well and end up failing to be productive players because they can't adjust to life in the US. I'm not saying that will happen with Doncic but that is something he'll have to deal with that the top NCAA prospects won't.

 

[SirStefan32]

Poop Head is spot on, and I am a big Doncic fan.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Poop Head is spot on, and I am a big Doncic fan.

OK. I am ready for Kingdad to return.

Now about Doncic. Yes. He is an alpha. He has supreme confidence in himself.

Positives
1. High bball iq
2. Good ball handler
3. Very good passer.
4. OK scorer, but average efficiency overall (46%)

Negatives
1. Average athleticism.
2. Average wingspan
3. Average speed
4. Average to poor outside shooting (.306 this year and has declined every year for the last four years).
5. Average defense.
6. Average strength.

There are all kinds of guys that come into the league with this sets of skills. The hype on this guy is for one reason and one reason only--his production at this age. So, where is he going to improve? He could become a better shooter I guess. But he is not going to get faster or more athletic, which also means that he is probably not going to get better defensively. He is smart enough to be a Dudley type of defender if he really buys in.

To me the illusion with Doncic is that he has reached his peak sooner than most do. I do not think his peak is much higher.