2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Here is an interesting tidbit on Doncic's shooting percentage.

Doncic’s three-point percentage this season of 30.6% is not really the case because almost 20% of those attempts have been on end of quarter heaves after tracking through full games I was able to capture. It’s more realistic to believe that he is a 35% shooter from beyond the arc, which definitely ups the possibilities of how an above-average sniper like Booker could play off of him with ease in the backcourt.

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...-the-phoenix-suns-draft-board-nba-news-column

If that is indeed true that could explain why the percentage is down as much as it is.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Here is an interesting tidbit on Doncic's shooting percentage.



https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...-the-phoenix-suns-draft-board-nba-news-column

If that is indeed true that could explain why the percentage is down as much as it is.

Oh please. Every three point shooter has shots like that figured into his average. Excuses, excuses.

Here. Just go here and look at his game logs from this year. Look at three pointers attempted and made. This is reality. Honestly. The more I look at this player the less I like him. I was excited about him at the beginning of the year. At least Darko was big.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...layer_id=luka-doncic-1&year_id=2018&lg_id=SPA

In 14 of 21 games he made 1 or less three point shots. To me, he not only is a potential bust candidate, I think its VERY high. I will be ready to jump off a building if the Suns draft him. His hype is built on highlights and a run in the Euro tournament last summer.

 

[elindholm]

Here is an interesting tidbit on Doncic's shooting percentage.

Doncic’s three-point percentage this season of 30.6% is not really the case because almost 20% of those attempts have been on end of quarter heaves after tracking through full games I was able to capture. It’s more realistic to believe that he is a 35% shooter from beyond the arc, which definitely ups the possibilities of how an above-average sniper like Booker could play off of him with ease in the backcourt.

What the hell? If someone's going to go through and sort out the attempts like that, why not count up the makes too? Then you don't have to "believe" what his make rate is on normal-length shots; you'd just know it.

 

[Mainstreet]

JMHO.

If Doncic does not project to be the best PG in the draft and then some, I would prefer the Suns to draft another player. The Suns look good at shooting guard and small forward.

Of course if Doncic projects as a possible superstar, you draft him and not worry about. However, I have not heard this projection but perhaps I missed it.

Now if the Suns drafted later with their first pick like 3-5, then the Suns should consider it if he is there.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Good god guys...lol

That was not an attempt to suggest that Doncic is indeed an elite shooter now because of that reasoning. However 20% of his shots being heaves does indeed effect his 3P% pretty drastically. It still only brings his average to around 35% instead of 31%, but it makes it look like less of a liability and that was the point I was making. He attempts 5 threes per game and if he is literally averaging 1 shot every game from half court or beyond than that is certainly going to have repercussions on his percentage.

 

[SirStefan32]

OK. I am ready for Kingdad to return.

Now about Doncic. Yes. He is an alpha. He has supreme confidence in himself.

Positives
1. High bball iq
2. Good ball handler
3. Very good passer.
4. OK scorer, but average efficiency overall (46%)

Negatives
1. Average athleticism.
2. Average wingspan
3. Average speed
4. Average to poor outside shooting (.306 this year and has declined every year for the last four years).
5. Average defense.
6. Average strength.

There are all kinds of guys that come into the league with this sets of skills. The hype on this guy is for one reason and one reason only--his production at this age. So, where is he going to improve? He could become a better shooter I guess. But he is not going to get faster or more athletic, which also means that he is probably not going to get better defensively. He is smart enough to be a Dudley type of defender if he really buys in.

To me the illusion with Doncic is that he has reached his peak sooner than most do. I do not think his peak is much higher.

I don't think that any 19 year old has reached his peak. He can improve his shooting, he can improve his efficiency, he can turn the ball over less, he can become a better team defender, he can improve all sorts of things. No matter how good someone is, they can always add things to their arsenal. If I were him, I'd be shooting long threes for hours every day, and I'd be spending a lot of time in the low post practicing against smaller and bigger defenders. He already has a nice post game, but if he can become even better, he will be a nightmare to guard. If he can get his shooting to Booker-level, he will be downright unstoppable. "He is so good at such a young age" is a positive, not a negative. Nobody with good work ethic stops improving at the age of 19.

Also, I would disagree that all kinds of guys come into the league with his set of skills. People underestimate how good of a passer and scorer he really is. Looking at his stats doesn't do him justice. Stats in Europe are different, the game is different. His strength is also not average. That kid is strong. I know he looks skinny, but the kid weighs 230-ish pounds at 19 years. I haven't looked at their official weights, but he probably has 10-15lb on Josh Jackson and Booker. I've watched this kid play, and I can tell you he is deceivingly strong.

His quickness/ athleticism concerns are overblown too. He is no Shawn Marion or Russel Westbrook, but he is hardly slow. He is not overly explosive, but he is strong, he has great balance, he understands the angles. I mean, he is no less "athletic" than Booker or Warren. He is not a defensive stopper, but he is hardly a James Harden on defense.

This kid can flat-out play, and he is nowhere near done improving.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I don't think that any 19 year old has reached his peak. He can improve his shooting, he can improve his efficiency, he can turn the ball over less, he can become a better team defender, he can improve all sorts of things. No matter how good someone is, they can always add things to their arsenal. If I were him, I'd be shooting long threes for hours every day, and I'd be spending a lot of time in the low post practicing against smaller and bigger defenders. He already has a nice post game, but if he can become even better, he will be a nightmare to guard. If he can get his shooting to Booker-level, he will be downright unstoppable. "He is so good at such a young age" is a positive, not a negative. Nobody with good work ethic stops improving at the age of 19.

Also, I would disagree that all kinds of guys come into the league with his set of skills. People underestimate how good of a passer and scorer he really is. Looking at his stats doesn't do him justice. Stats in Europe are different, the game is different. His strength is also not average. That kid is strong. I know he looks skinny, but the kid weighs 230-ish pounds at 19 years. I haven't looked at their official weights, but he probably has 10-15lb on Josh Jackson and Booker. I've watched this kid play, and I can tell you he is deceivingly strong.

His quickness/ athleticism concerns are overblown too. He is no Shawn Marion or Russel Westbrook, but he is hardly slow. He is not overly explosive, but he is strong, he has great balance, he understands the angles. I mean, he is no less "athletic" than Booker or Warren. He is not a defensive stopper, but he is hardly a James Harden on defense.

This kid can flat-out play, and he is nowhere near done improving.

He also only plays 25 minutes per game. His per 36 numbers are 24/7/6/2 and I feel pretty confident his numbers would be close to that if he was actually getting 36 minutes. Pointing to stats as some sort of negative seems pretty useless in this scenario (except the 3P% of course, that needs to improve).

 

[JCSunsfan]

He also only plays 25 minutes per game. His per 36 numbers are 24/7/6/2 and I feel pretty confident his numbers would be close to that if he was actually getting 36 minutes. Pointing to stats as some sort of negative seems pretty useless in this scenario (except the 3P% of course, that needs to improve).

I am looking primarily at efficiency. So the number of minutes don't matter. His three point volume is fairly low as well by nba standards for a guard.

 

[Hoop Head]

Here is an interesting tidbit on Doncic's shooting percentage.



https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/...-the-phoenix-suns-draft-board-nba-news-column

If that is indeed true that could explain why the percentage is down as much as it is.

That is too many heaves. I could see it effecting his percentage by 1% at the absolute most, not a 5% difference. Just for comparison, Booker has only had 7, Warren has 6, and Eric Bledsoe has 13 heave attempts throughout their entire careers. That's a total of 911 games. If you removed 26 attempts from Doncic's 3's it wouldn't raise his percentage 5%.

You can view heave attempts at Basketball-Reference. Here is a link to Warren's page.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/warretj01.html

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I am looking primarily at efficiency. So the number of minutes don't matter. His three point volume is fairly low as well by nba standards for a guard.

He averages 8 3PAs per 36. That doesn't seem like low volume to me.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That is too many heaves. I could see it effecting his percentage by 1% at the absolute most, not a 5% difference. Just for comparison, Booker has only had 7, Warren has 6, and Eric Bledsoe has 13 heave attempts throughout their entire careers. That's a total of 911 games. If you removed 26 attempts from Doncic's 3's it wouldn't raise his percentage 5%.

You can view heave attempts at Basketball-Reference. Here is a link to Warren's page.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/warretj01.html

I don't think it is crazy to think that he takes 1 shot per game behind half court. Assuming he is in the game at the end of at least 2-3 quarters per game. I mean unless you think the writer was just making it up as he said he did the video research and I'm not about to go find every game he has played this year to refute it.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't think it is crazy to think that he takes 1 shot per game behind half court. Assuming he is in the game at the end of at least 2-3 quarters per game. I mean unless you think the writer was just making it up as he said he did the video research and I'm not about to go find every game he has played this year to refute it.

That is a very high amount and unfortunately Basketball-Reference doesn't keep shooting stats like that for Euro players. In reading the article it seemed like the author had a clear Doncic bias. I don't know if he made it up but just looking at some of the final scores for games he played in it doesn't appear that he would need to toss up that many long range 3's. Why take those when your team is up by a dozen at the time? Especially if you noticed it was effecting your shooting percentage that much. It seems odd.

Here is a link to view some Euro-League stats on Doncic though. It's worth taking a look at just to get an idea how he's improved year to year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/luka-doncic-1.html

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That is a very high amount and unfortunately Basketball-Reference doesn't keep shooting stats like that for Euro players. In reading the article it seemed like the author had a clear Doncic bias. I don't know if he made it up but just looking at some of the final scores for games he played in it doesn't appear that he would need to toss up that many long range 3's. Why take those when your team is up by a dozen at the time? Especially if you noticed it was effecting your shooting percentage that much. It seems odd.

Here is a link to view some Euro-League stats on Doncic though. It's worth taking a look at just to get an idea how he's improved year to year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/luka-doncic-1.html

Maybe they mostly came in the first 3 quarters and maybe he isn't particularly worried about his individual numbers? Like I said I'm not about to scour the internet for the 47 games he has played this year. Also BBRef counts a heave as a shot behind half court and I'm thinking the author didn't make that distinction in his article. He is probably counting any very deep off balance 3 that he took trying to beat the buzzer and that probably includes shots to beat the shot clock (which obviously changes it as most ball handlers have to throw up desperation shots every once in a while). No way to know without seeing every game though.

 

[hsandhu]

I think Bagley ranks ahead of Doncic for a lot of people because he seems like more of a sure thing. Bagley's potential to bust is much smaller than Doncic's, I think he has best chance of being a good NBA player of any of the top prospects, Ayton included. Ayton should be a good pro, I don't think he'll be a bust but I'd say the likelihood that Bagley is a bust is really small, like maybe 5% chance. Ayton should be a really good pro also but I think he's more likely to be a bust in the NBA than Bagley, although not by much, maybe an 8% chance if I have Bagley at 5%. Doncic worries me a lot, similar to Porter, but for different reasons. I think both of them have maybe a 25% chance they're busts. Porter because of injuries and Doncic for being a position-less Euro who may not be able to find a role that suits his style of play on the team that drafts him roster. The fit for him is something to consider, much more than any of the other top prospects. He may be a PG or he may be a Point Forward playing the 3 somewhere. It wouldn't surprise me if a team tried playing him at SG either.

Yep agree 100%.

Bagleys bust potential is low simply because of the physical tools. 6 11, with incredible speed, agilty, second jump... Etc.

He'll be able to beat people consistently with those tools

Honestly only way he is a bust is if somehow those tools aren't as good as im seeing and only look good in college

Main thing i would want to see in summer league and early part of the season is how fast he is against nba talent, you'll be able to tell right away if he is the real deal.

I.e., I wasn't worried at all about Josh Jackson early in the year because the speed i saw in college held up against nba talent

 

[Mainstreet]

Yep agree 100%.

Bagleys bust potential is low simply because of the physical tools. 6 11, with incredible speed, agilty, second jump... Etc.

He'll be able to beat people consistently with those tools

Honestly only way he is a bust is if somehow those tools aren't as good as im seeing and only look good in college

Main thing i would want to see in summer league and early part of the season is how fast he is against nba talent, you'll be able to tell right away if he is the real deal.

I.e., I wasn't worried at all about Josh Jackson early in the year because the speed i saw in college held up against nba talent

Jackson and Bagley would look nice at the forwards.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

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This is an example of what he was looking up. There are a lot of these types of attempts from him. Also the 2nd one in the video wouldn't count as a heave per BBRef, but is a shot that is almost certainly not going to go in either.

 

[Mainstreet]

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This is an example of what he was looking up. There are a lot of these types of attempts from him. Also the 2nd one in the video wouldn't count as a heave per BBRef, but is a shot that is almost certainly not going to go in either.

I wouldn't hold these 3 point shot attempts against him as the clock is running out.

 

[SirStefan32]

But doesn't everyone have a bunch of those attempts? Again, I am a Doncic fan, I think his shooting will be just fine, but this is silly. Every "star" has heaves.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

But doesn't everyone have a bunch of those attempts? Again, I am a Doncic fan, I think his shooting will be just fine, but this is silly. Every "star" has heaves.

They all have them, but not necessarily to the extent that he throws them up. A lot of players care too much about their stats to throw these shots up unless it is at the end of the game and for the win. Otherwise they would rather just hold the ball or make a half hearted attempt after the buzzer sounds.

 

[AzStevenCal]

But doesn't everyone have a bunch of those attempts? Again, I am a Doncic fan, I think his shooting will be just fine, but this is silly. Every "star" has heaves.

I have no idea whether Doncic has an unusual number of clock shots but I know a lot of players run from them. How many times have we seen a star take one more step than he should and then put up a prayer that's just after time has expired? I see it often. I never see it from Booker, maybe the same is true for Luka?

 

[SirStefan32]

They all have them, but not necessarily to the extent that he throws them up. A lot of players care too much about their stats to throw these shots up unless it is at the end of the game and for the win. Otherwise they would rather just hold the ball or make a half hearted attempt after the buzzer sounds.

Hm, I guess I never really thought about that. Not sure where I stand. I recall him throwing a couple of those in the games I watched, but I don't remember it happening all the time. It's an interesting thing to think about.

 

[Mainstreet]

They all have them, but not necessarily to the extent that he throws them up. A lot of players care too much about their stats to throw these shots up unless it is at the end of the game and for the win. Otherwise they would rather just hold the ball or make a half hearted attempt after the buzzer sounds.

This makes me feel better about him if he is not looking to puff stats.

If this is part of his aggressiveness, I like it.

 

[Cheesebeef]

But doesn't everyone have a bunch of those attempts? Again, I am a Doncic fan, I think his shooting will be just fine, but this is silly. Every "star" has heaves.

Agreed.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Jackson and Bagley would look nice at the forwards.

I do not see why Bagley cannot play the 5. More mobile centers is the way the NBA is going anyway.

A front line of Jackson, Bagley, and then one of TJ, Bender, Chriss, Williams, or a FA big man. That would be interesting.

Can you imagine a front line of Jackson, TJ and Bagley? There would be no lack of movement, that's for sure. Yes, three point shooting would be an issue.

JJ, Bagley, and an improved Bender would be very interesting. Bender's d and three point shooting with Bagley's active interior game and JJ' slashing.

 

[pokerface]

People want to talk his "numbers going down" because he's played three years in the euro league while Bagley gets a pass for playing one year in college? Then it's thrown around that Doncic has more bust potential??