5. Grizzlies playing draft pick poker
Memphis’s fascinating trade with
Phoenix saw the Grizzlies swap two fairly big swings on possibly moving up in the 2024 and 2030 first rounds (via pick swap from the lesser of Washington’s or Phoenix’s picks) in return for the certainty of giving up three future second-round picks. (Memphis also had to swallow
Isaiah Todd’s salary into its Dillon Brooks trade exception generated by the madness outlined above.)
This amounts to the Grizzlies playing odds here, even without certainty that they’ll come out ahead. They’ve basically purchased a put option that could expire valueless. However, with the price of moving up even a few spots in the first round becoming increasingly expensive, the potential ROI on this transaction can end up in the black even if Memphis doesn’t land some crazy lottery jackpot. Merely moving up from, say, 25th to 20th in one of the two seasons would probably be a break-even result on this move.
Nonetheless, it’s an unusual trade because so many teams want relative certainty in traded pick outcomes. This one is uncertain with a capital U.
The other nerdy part of this, from Phoenix’s end, is that the Suns traded the swap rights to two picks that they had
already traded. It’s unlikely to matter much in 2024, when the Suns should be good, but Phoenix notably increased the chance of turning a good pick into an awful one in 2030.
Perhaps more notable is that the Suns acquired trade capital on this deal. Remember the prohibition on cash in trades noted above for teams above the second apron? Phoenix is also blocked by that. The Suns used this deal to finesse three second-round picks instead, which is important because they had
zero of them to use in trades after giving all of them to Washington in the Bradley Beal trade.
Now, Phoenix can go into the trade deadline armed with at least a few assets to use in. minor deals to keep building the back end of the roster.
