2024 Draft Countdown/NFL Prospects thread

[football karma]

interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups

 

[SoonerLou]

interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups

So MHJ being AJ Green and Keon Coleman being Julio Jones confirmed.

 

[TheCardFan]

On topic...

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[kerouac9]

On topic...

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+1 pew pew pew

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Looks like MHJ is going #1 overall to the Bears.

They're going to trade that pick. They'd be fools not too. As much as I like MH, if the Cards end up picking #1 and Kyler is their guy, they'd be fools not to hold some team hostage for picks. The Bears will do the same, assuming Fields is their QB moving forward.

 

[kerouac9]

They're going to trade that pick. They'd be fools not too. As much as I like MH, if the Cards end up picking #1 and Kyler is their guy, they'd be fools not to hold some team hostage for picks. The Bears will do the same, assuming Fields is their QB moving forward.

100% this. Someone is going to give them two firsts for the rights to their favorite QB. They'd be foolish not to take that and instead take a WR. DJ Moore is 26 and under contract for two more years.

 

[TheCardFan]

Why you don't trade Hill for a bunch of nothing when you have Mahomes.

That is a dynasty combo with Kelce.

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[Garthshort]

interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups

For every team that trades down, there is a team that trades up.

 

[GatorAZ]

Based upon the argument I have heard many on this board make, it is better to be absolutely terrible than it is to be .500. Applying this logic to Kyler and Rosen, it makes Rosen the better option.

As I have said, without significant improvement, I don't believe Kyler will ever win a playoff game.

Also, I don't see the JOsh Rosen comp for Drake Maye. Not sure how you get to that.

I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.

 

[kerouac9]

I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.

I always thought this was predicated on the idea you could also get something for Kyler.

Like would you make the deal if you got the 11th pick in the draft and Atlanta’s 2025 first? What about their 2025 second instead?

Maybe they’re making Kyler play like Ryan Tannehill because they’re trying to trade him to RT’s old boss.

 

[football karma]

For every team that trades down, there is a team that trades up.

correct -- and the team that trades down usually gets more production out of that trade than the team trading up

 

[football karma]

So MHJ being AJ Green and Keon Coleman being Julio Jones confirmed.

sub in Malik Nabers for Keon Coleman and I am a buyer

 

[Garthshort]

correct -- and the team that trades down usually gets more production out of that trade than the team trading up

You're probably correct, but if you know it the teams ALSO know it. So why are they doing it? Because the other teams aren't as smart as we are (is that why?). I'm being serious.

 

[football karma]

You're probably correct, but if you know it the teams ALSO know it. So why are they doing it? Because the other teams aren't as smart as we are (is that why?). I'm being serious.

we are down to "rational decision making" part of the draft

the pod explains it via incentives:

Any GM who doesn't have a QB knows they need one if they want to keep their job. Since not having a QB has an immediate cost but the cost of giving up multiple picks wont be felt for several seasons -- GMs are incented to trade up because they live in the short term.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Why you don't trade Hill for a bunch of nothing when you have Mahomes.

That is a dynasty combo with Kelce.

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That Tyreek Hill doesn't play for us is depressing. This is me watching him play football.

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[Cheesebeef]

That Tyreek hill doesn't play for us is depressing. This is me watching him play football.

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I'm fine with not cheering for a proven piece of crap, woman beater like Tyreek. You sure as hell would never see me staring out a window pining for a guy like that.

 

[cardncubfan]

On topic...

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Wouldn't the majority of those snaps been when Dobbs was QB? He couldn't throw more than 10-15 yards accurately.

 

[cardncubfan]

sub in Malik Nabers for Keon Coleman and I am a buyer

Nabers is my pick if we can't get MHJ.

 

[slanidrac16]

I’m more comfortable going forward with Kyler plus the ability to add an elite offensive weapon than going forward with Maye or Daniels minus the additional elite offensive weapon at our pick. It’s more of a situational endorsement than direct endorsement of Kyler.

Maye and Rosen are/were overhyped based on the fact they look like prototype QB’s but don’t play like it. Tall, good arm, good feet but incredibly underwhelming performance. Good luck in New England.

Very well said.

 

[Garthshort]

Nabers is my pick if we can't get MHJ.

Even if we stay at #3?

 

[BritCard]

Even if we stay at #3?

If Cards pick at 2 or 3 I think more likely than not that they trade down. Obviously depends on the offer.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Even if we stay at #3?

Hmmm... Depends on who's drafting 4th and 5th. If we're lucky enough that one of them is a QB-hungry team, we may try to trade spots with them.

Maybe we try to do that even if MJH is still on the board? It's a good question though. Maybe one of the draft gurus (not me for sure) can weigh in on this.

 

[cardncubfan]

Even if we stay at #3?

I doubt we stay at 3 if MHJ is gone. But no, I wouldn't take him at 3. Probably Alt if we stay.

 

[BritCard]

I doubt we stay at 3 if MHJ is gone. But no, I wouldn't take him at 3. Probably Alt if we stay.

I'm not sure we stay at #3 if he is there.

If they really want WR you can trade back and get Nabers plus a bunch of extra capital. There's less between Nabers and MHJ than people think and there will even be some that prefer one over the other depending on what fits their system.

I'd rather have Nabers and a future #1 and #2 than just MHJ.

My personal feeling is they would prefer to go WR in round 2 or 3 in a deep class and build the trenches, but much depends on what happens in FA.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

interesting podcast i just listened to about rational decision making -- and they covered the NFL draft.

fun fact from that pod: based on the last 10 years -- the odds of a given player at a position being better than the next player at that position picked in the draft is........ 52%. basically a coin flip.

take it fwiw

the other conclusion: trade downs work out better far, far more often than trade ups

That would make sense. They’re ranked right next to one and other.