2024 Draft Countdown/NFL Prospects thread

[football karma]

That would make sense. They’re ranked right next to one and other.

its worth keeping in mind when looking at MHJ vs the next drafted WR.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I'm not sure we stay at #3 if he is there.

If they really want WR you can trade back and get Nabers plus a bunch of extra capital. There's less between Nabers and MHJ than people think and there will even be some that prefer one over the other depending on what fits their system.

I'd rather have Nabers and a future #1 and #2 than just MHJ.

My personal feeling is they would prefer to go WR in round 2 or 3 in a deep class and build the trenches, but much depends on what happens in FA.

You’re wrong on the gap between Harrison and the#2 WR(Nabers might not even be #2).

There is a huge drop off. Harrison is big, fast, great hands and the best route runner, by far, of a talented WR group. That’s how good he is. He’s also a good blocker for a WR.

Other than maybe Bowers to the #2TE, there’s not a larger drop off from the #1 rated player at a position than Harrison to the #2.

And, that’s saying something because it’s a talented position in this years draft.

Nabers had the heisman winner throwing him the ball. Harrison put up his year with a first time starter with accuracy issues throwing it to him. All while being the main focal point of the defense.

 

[DVontel]

Nabers is better than what people think he is on here & I think there’s a gap between him & Odunze, but MHJR is in a tier by himself.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

its worth keeping in mind when looking at MHJ vs the next drafted WR.

The problem is that the study looks at averages. It doesn’t take into account nuanced differences.

2007:
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn lynch
HOF to very good player

2001:
Ladanian tomlinson
Deuce mccallister
HOF to good player

If that’s the difference between MHJ and the next wr it’s likely best sticking with MHJ unless you’re guaranteed of hitting on the other draft picks you get in a trade back (which we know isn’t the case).

 

[football karma]

The problem is that the study looks at averages. It doesn’t take into account nuanced differences.

2007:
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn lynch
HOF to very good player

2001:
Ladanian tomlinson
Deuce mccallister
HOF to good player

If that’s the difference between MHJ and the next wr it’s likely best sticking with MHJ unless you’re guaranteed of hitting on the other draft picks you get in a trade back (which we know isn’t the case).

i agree with your point on averages -- that 52% covers both the first round AND later rounds

but that said: it could also be 2011 when it was AJ Green at #4 and then Julio Jones at #6.

i have just come to the point where i take all pre-draft prospect hype with a grain of salt. Heck -- in 2020 the pre draft debate was Jerry Jeudy vs CD Lamb and it turned out the best one was the fifth (!) WR taken -- Justin Jefferson.

 

[BritCard]

MHJ is going to be a good player in the NFL. But people are way too sure he's going to be elite and far above other WRs.

 

[kerouac9]

MHJ is going to be a good player in the NFL. But people are way too sure he's going to be elite and far above other WRs.

I think the issue is that even if he's an elite WR, he's in a pretty big class. There are probably 15-20 WRs that you can make a reasonable argument for being top 5 at their position.

It's not like QB or TE, where there are 3-4 guys who are on another level than everyone else. How much worse off are the Dolphins if they have DeVonta Smith instead of Jalen Waddle? Or the Raiders if they have Ja'Marr Chase instead of Davonte Adams? Or the Vikes if they have A.J. Brown instead of Justin Jefferson?

If you swapped Justin Jefferson for George Pickens, are the results for either that different?

The big deal is that there are a lot of just busts at the WR position, or guys who take longer to develop than you want. You gotta believe in your scouts and your evaluation process.

And forget that Monti Ossenfort was part of the braintrust that identified Treylon Burks.

 

[Stout]

I think the issue is that even if he's an elite WR, he's in a pretty big class. There are probably 15-20 WRs that you can make a reasonable argument for being top 5 at their position.

It's not like QB or TE, where there are 3-4 guys who are on another level than everyone else. How much worse off are the Dolphins if they have DeVonta Smith instead of Jalen Waddle? Or the Raiders if they have Ja'Marr Chase instead of Davonte Adams? Or the Vikes if they have A.J. Brown instead of Justin Jefferson?

If you swapped Justin Jefferson for George Pickens, are the results for either that different?

The big deal is that there are a lot of just busts at the WR position, or guys who take longer to develop than you want. You gotta believe in your scouts and your evaluation process.

And forget that Monti Ossenfort was part of the braintrust that identified Treylon Burks.

Oh my, you really, really picked a bad comparison there. Yes by a wide margin, they are different.

 

[oaken1]

I think the issue is that even if he's an elite WR, he's in a pretty big class. There are probably 15-20 WRs that you can make a reasonable argument for being top 5 at their position.

It's not like QB or TE, where there are 3-4 guys who are on another level than everyone else. How much worse off are the Dolphins if they have DeVonta Smith instead of Jalen Waddle? Or the Raiders if they have Ja'Marr Chase instead of Davonte Adams? Or the Vikes if they have A.J. Brown instead of Justin Jefferson?

If you swapped Justin Jefferson for George Pickens, are the results for either that different?

The big deal is that there are a lot of just busts at the WR position, or guys who take longer to develop than you want. You gotta believe in your scouts and your evaluation process.

And forget that Monti Ossenfort was part of the braintrust that identified Treylon Burks.

thats where MHJ shines... the pedigree... much like Fitz, he grew up seeing NFL prep work every day so he has always worked harder and considered it necessary. He wont be one to rest on his laurels and allow his athletic ability to carry him

 

[Rohinaz]

thats where MHJ shines... the pedigree... much like Fitz, he grew up seeing NFL prep work every day so he has always worked harder and considered it necessary. He wont be one to rest on his laurels and allow his athletic ability to carry him

Nabers was the best wr in tbe league this year, mhj won the biletnekoff due to his last name. His ability to get separation and avoid tackles is incredible.

 

[GatorAZ]

I wouldn’t take Nabers or Odunze at #3. I would trade a 3rd to move from 3 to 2 for MHJ. He’s generational.

 

[BritCard]

I think the issue is that even if he's an elite WR, he's in a pretty big class. There are probably 15-20 WRs that you can make a reasonable argument for being top 5 at their position.

It's not like QB or TE, where there are 3-4 guys who are on another level than everyone else. How much worse off are the Dolphins if they have DeVonta Smith instead of Jalen Waddle? Or the Raiders if they have Ja'Marr Chase instead of Davonte Adams? Or the Vikes if they have A.J. Brown instead of Justin Jefferson?

If you swapped Justin Jefferson for George Pickens, are the results for either that different?

The big deal is that there are a lot of just busts at the WR position, or guys who take longer to develop than you want. You gotta believe in your scouts and your evaluation process.

And forget that Monti Ossenfort was part of the braintrust that identified Treylon Burks.

Exactly this. Even if MHJ is the elite player people are sure about, which I've argued is less sure than people think, the difference between MHJ and one of Nabers/Odunze/Coleman in practice will likely be negligible.

Someone used the AJ Green and Julio Jones draft comparison earlier. Julio was statistically better in total yards but AJ had more TDs. Julio had 18 yards per game more but Julio played his whole career with Matt Ryan. I think you can argue neither team chose wrong and if the draft flipped you may see the stats flipped.

For me the better value is in a trade down and Nabers plus draft capital (or a good vet player) than MHJ at #3.

 

[BritCard]

Oh my, you really, really picked a bad comparison there. Yes by a wide margin, they are different.

You're way more sure about this than you should be considering the offense Pickens is playing in and the garbage he's had at QB.

Pickens on the Rams, Vikings, Chiefs, Bengals etc probably has a couple of 1300+ yard seasons.

But Jefferson is a good example why you don't need to draft that high to get a great WR. 4 guys went before Jefferson.

 

[Stout]

You're way more sure about this than you should be considering the offense Pickens is playing in and the garbage he's had at QB.

Pickens on the Rams, Vikings, Chiefs, Bengals etc probably has a couple of 1300+ yard seasons.

But Jefferson is a good example why you don't need to draft that high to get a great WR. 4 guys went before Jefferson.

Pickens is proving to be a basket case in Pittsburgh. I live here; I hear about these things all the time. Remember, talent isn't everything. Chase Claypool had talent. Talent + headcase does not = success. Sometimes talent will out, but often it doesn't. You kind of need to show you're great before you go all head case. I wouldn't want Pickens on this team, whose major goal is to change the culture.

 

[daves]

As expected, after New England and so many 4-win teams won in week 14, the Cards solidified their hold on a pick between #2 and #4 during their bye week. Here's the latest projection from The Athletic. (Their model may have Arizona with fractionally fewer projected wins than New England, but as we know, if they end up with the same record, the Cards would actually pick after the Patriots by virtue of strength of schedule.)

Team	Projected Wins	Playoff Chance
1. Carolina -> Chicago	2.3	0.0%
2. Arizona	4.3	0.0%
3. New England	4.3	0.0%
4.Washington	5.1	0.0%
5. NY Giants	5.9	1.6%
6. LA Chargers	6.1	0.2%
7. Tennessee	6.5	0.3%
8. NY Jets	6.6	0.4%
9. Las Vegas	6.7	1.0%
10. Chicago	6.8	7.0%

 

[Garthshort]

It seems more and more likely to me that if we have the 2nd or 3rd pick that we'll trade back, within the top 10, and take an OT. And with the WR class being a deep one, take a WR with the Texans' pick. Knowing it's possible that we stay at 2 or 3 and take MHJ, and I'll be happy whichever way the Draft turns out. Bottom line, I can't wait for the Draft.

 

[BritCard]

Pickens is proving to be a basket case in Pittsburgh. I live here; I hear about these things all the time. Remember, talent isn't everything. Chase Claypool had talent. Talent + headcase does not = success. Sometimes talent will out, but often it doesn't. You kind of need to show you're great before you go all head case. I wouldn't want Pickens on this team, whose major goal is to change the culture.

K9 was making a point about the practical differences. I don't think we need to drill down into player psychology to get the gist of what he was saying.

 

[BritCard]

As expected, after New England and so many 4-win teams won in week 14, the Cards solidified their hold on a pick between #2 and #4 during their bye week. Here's the latest projection from The Athletic. (Their model may have Arizona with fractionally fewer projected wins than New England, but as we know, if they end up with the same record, the Cards would actually pick after the Patriots by virtue of strength of schedule.)

Hard to see us picking over the Pats now. Pats have the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets.

Jet's are the only real possible with the Pats being their daddy. But I think we win another game.

I'm most concerned about slipping to #4. Commanders have the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys. If they lose out and we win one we pick 4th.

Commanders are on a real bad run. They lost their last 4 and only once scored over 19 in that run while giving up 29, 31, 45 and 45. Trading Sweat and Young at the deadline reeks of tanking.

I think the new owners want a new star QB and likely a new HC.

 

[Stout]

K9 was making a point about the practical differences. I don't think we need to drill down into player psychology to get the gist of what he was saying.

I got the gist and merely noted how awful an example it was. Because it was an awful example and he could have used a better example to make his point.

Care to argue this pointless argument further? I do not.

 

[Garthshort]

Hard to see us picking over the Pats now. Pats have the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets.

Jet's are the only real possible with the Pats being their daddy. But I think we win another game.

I'm most concerned about slipping to #4. Commanders have the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys. If they lose out and we win one we pick 4th.

Commanders are on a real bad run. They lost their last 4 and only once scored over 19 in that run while giving up 29, 31, 45 and 45. Trading Sweat and Young at the deadline reeks of tanking.

I think the new owners want a new star QB and likely a new HC.

Brit, I'm basing this on what I've read. Falling to four shouldn't be a problem. Because........
1. At #4 we take an OT.
2. With the Texans' pick we take a WR.
And while Belichick is a great coach, I'm not often impressed with his draft picks. So, if NE is in the top three, his pick might be one from out of left field, and either Williams, Maye or MHJ might be there.

 

[kerouac9]

Brit, I'm basing this on what I've read. Falling to four shouldn't be a problem. Because........
1. At #4 we take an OT.
2. With the Texans' pick we take a WR.
And while Belichick is a great coach, I'm not often impressed with his draft picks. So, if NE is in the top three, his pick might be one from out of left field, and either Williams, Maye or MHJ might be there.

I think even then you're foregoing a ton of potential value that you'd get in the trade down. Trading from two to four would likely net you a second-round pick this year and a first next year.

 

[QuebecCard]

Give me MHJ and Verse on night one of the draft and I go to bed content.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

You're way more sure about this than you should be considering the offense Pickens is playing in and the garbage he's had at QB.

Pickens on the Rams, Vikings, Chiefs, Bengals etc probably has a couple of 1300+ yard seasons.

But Jefferson is a good example why you don't need to draft that high to get a great WR. 4 guys went before Jefferson.

You can find lower drafted people at every position that have out-performed players that were drafted ahead of them. If you're using that for draft strategy, well, good luck with that.
Give me the best player at a position and I'll live with that pick. There's a greater "bust" potential for guys like Nabers and Oduzne. Why? Because they're not as good a prospect as Harrison, and not very close to him, propsect-wise either.

Harrison, with his ability, work ethic, and pedigree has a very very low bust potential. I'm taking a guy like him every day over trading down for two lesser players that have much higher potential to bust. For every Justin Jefferson, who has played at a higher level than where he was drafted, there are probably 10 guys that didn't.

I'll stick with Harrison. You can trade back and get Jedrick Wills and a Treylon Burks if you'd like, which is more likely to happen than getting a Jefferson and another stud.

 

[slanidrac16]

We will know a lot more after we find out what we do with Brown.
If we resign Browns I think the odds increase we trade down.
I want so much to believe in “ building the trenches” but the excitement of MHJ makes me think twice.
Then I think about free agency and 5 more picks in rounds 1-2-3 and that should give us plenty of opportunities to build the trenches.

This offense needs a huge infusion of striking power.

 

[kerouac9]

We will know a lot more after we find out what we do with Brown.
If we resign Browns I think the odds increase we trade down.
I want so much to believe in “ building the trenches” but the excitement of MHJ makes me think twice.
Then I think about free agency and 5 more picks in rounds 1-2-3 and that should give us plenty of opportunities to build the trenches.

This offense needs a huge infusion of striking power.

I think that you can make a reasonable argument that the upgrade from Hollywood or Moore/Wilson to MJH is so much greater than the upgrade from Hump to Alt or Fashanu.

We really just need better players at the top of the roster. Another PJJ is a recipe for another five-win season unless we make some money moves in FA.