After Noel and Mclemore, This Is The Player That I want the Suns to Pick

[AzStevenCal]

Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and even the recent impact of Nate Robinson makes Burke's stock go up.

He is not too small at a true 6-1.

I didn't realize we were using the "in shoes" measurement with these guys but okay, in shoes, Burke is 6'1. That is the same as Paul but it's a couple of inches shorter than Irving measured. Robinson is a freak of nature who has had moments of excellence surrounded by huge stretches of disappointing play and IMO he's hardly the kind of player you're hoping to select at the top of the draft. I don't see the same kind of talent in Burke that I did watching Paul in college but then again, I'm a fan not a scout.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Point Guards posting up is not part of the NBA game anymore anyway. Even if Burke was just 5'11 I would not be too worried.

He is bigger than Ty Lawson and the same size as Kemba Walker.

Hopefully we don't get in a situation where Burke is clearly the BPA since PG is the position we are least worried about.

 

[slinslin]

Back to McLemore vs Oladipo

McLemore's selling point is shooting vs Oladipo's selling point defense.

There is actual data out there that shows that perimeter defense (point guards and shooting guards) in general has very little impact on a team defense. Rajon Rondo is consistenly quoted as a great defender but his advanced numbers don't really back it up at all.
I think Tony Allen is about the only guard in the NBA that based on advanced stats has a real impace defensively for the team whether he is on the floor or not.

On the other hand the trend in the NBA seems to be going really fast towards perimeter shooting ability.

Given that athletically McLemore and Oladipo are almost the same. McLemore has less experience, is younger. I think McLemore over Oladipo is a no-brainer..

 

[SirStefan32]

Back to McLemore vs Oladipo

McLemore's selling point is shooting vs Oladipo's selling point defense.

There is actual data out there that shows that perimeter defense (point guards and shooting guards) in general has very little impact on a team defense. Rajon Rondo is consistenly quoted as a great defender but his advanced numbers don't really back it up at all.
I think Tony Allen is about the only guard in the NBA that based on advanced stats has a real impace defensively for the team whether he is on the floor or not.

On the other hand the trend in the NBA seems to be going really fast towards perimeter shooting ability.

Given that athletically McLemore and Oladipo are almost the same. McLemore has less experience, is younger. I think McLemore over Oladipo is a no-brainer..

You may wipe your behind with those advanced stats that are "out there" stating perimeter defense is not important. Anyone who's watched an NBA game knows that defense at any position is important.

Putting that point aside, I would probably go with McLemore over Oladipo is both were available. I have a feeling I would regret that decision in a few years, but at this point, I would not pass on an opportunity to get McLemore. His shooting is incredible, while his defense is not terrible.

 

[slinslin]

Even before advanced stats it was already a foregone conclusion that frontcourt players make a defense, not perimeter players.

Kobe Bryant winning all-nba defensive first team year in and out despite being average defensively is prove of that there are no real standouts defensively at the guard positions.

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/02/28/kevins-summer-project-part-9-shooting-guard-defense/

Shooting Guards provided a poor rate of success from the 2000 to 2011 drafts. Sure, Dwyane Wade, Brandon Roy and James Harden kick-ass, but the list of players not living up to expectations runs much longer.
Generally, the upperclassmen busted. Aside from Wade, Roy and Allen, the other 48 players combined for 342 Points Stopped over the seasons investigated by this study. Compare this with Tony Allen’s 300 total Points Stopped in 2010 – 2011 and strike-shortened 2011 – 2012. Dwight Howard tallied 438 Points Stopped in 2007 – 2008.
Size and Athleticism proved more important defensively than offensively, particularly for underclassmen, where the size measurements fared better than in previous portion of this study. The No-Step Vert correlations for the 19-to-21 year olds reached relatively high levels.
Poor agility times doomed upperclassmen Shooting Guards.

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/11/27/kevins-summer-project-part-3-shooting-guard-offense/

NBA teams routinely use very late draft picks on NCAA shooting guards. These players never pan out. Surely some of these franchises also could stand an upgrade at back-up point guard. Success is more likely by going that route.
For projecting offensive success, size is non-important for both Guard positions.
Of the 17 drafted, upperclassmen with agility drills slower than 11.2 seconds, only late bloomer John Salmons and Keith Bogans have exceeded two career OWS. This year, Will Barton, Kevin Murphy, and Orlando Johnson attempt to buck the trend. (I like Will Barton and was puzzled by his speed and agility drills at the combine. They are epically slow, almost as if he was hurt. He is generally described as athletic, and I would not be surprised by future success.)
Long, explosive underclassmen shooting guards prove very successful at meeting or exceeding draft-day expectations.
Unlike with point guards, sprint speed shows no perpetual pattern of shooting guard success on offense. It appears to be overvalued every June.

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/05/02/kevins-summer-project-part-13-bringing-it-all-home/

For point guards on defense, speed again ruled supreme, however size did prove beneficial. All forty-five upperclassmen correlations between Points Stopped and size measurements were positive. Similarly, shooting guard defensive results reflected a prevalance for longer players to succeed more-readily. Explosiveness, again evidenced through their leaping measurements, provided even better correlations though. While the height & wingspan of these players warrants some consideration, of course Tony Allen taped-in with average 6′ – 3.5″ barefoot height and 6′ – 9″ wingspan; he’s pretty good at defense. Certainly on your draft board (everyone has a one, right?), a small boost is warranted for length in a guard prospect, but given the relative importance of guards on offense compared to defense, don’t get carried away.

Length is important for guards on defense, but did not prove beneficial offensively. If you otherwise can’t differentiate two comparable players, certainly give the longer guard the benefit-of-the-doubt.

 

[SirStefan32]

Since Burke can do very well all the things listed above, I would take him even with a top5 pick.

I would disagree that Burke does all those things very well. He is certainly a very good shooter, he has the ability to penetrate and break down the defense, and he is a good passer. He is somewhere between a bellow average and a poor defender. He's no Steve Nash on defense, but he is certainly no Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, or even Darren Collison or Goran Dragic.

To me, that's not a top 5 pick, though I understand why some teams/ GMs would disagree.

 

[slinslin]

Found this on McLemore

He’s also the best defender on a KU team that was historically good on D according to Synergy http://www.umhoops.com/2013/03/26/scouting-kansas/

Funny considering some people say McLemore is not a good defensive player.

 

[SirStefan32]

Even before advanced stats it was already a foregone conclusion that frontcourt players make a defense, not perimeter players.

Kobe Bryant winning all-nba defensive first team year in and out despite being average defensively is prove of that there are no real standouts defensively at the guard positions.

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/02/28/kevins-summer-project-part-9-shooting-guard-defense/




http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/11/27/kevins-summer-project-part-3-shooting-guard-offense/



http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/05/02/kevins-summer-project-part-13-bringing-it-all-home/

Slin,

I've been around here for over 10 years, and I've learned that debating something with you is like arguing with a brick wall, so I really have no desire to debate this particular issue. You cab find any "advanced stats" that you want, but that doesn't change the fact that a good defender at any position is important. Sure, having a great defensive/ shot blocking big men in the paint is going to make PGs/SGs look better- nobody is going to argue this, but to say that it's not important is just not logical.

Again, I appreciate your opinion, but in my view, your "advanced stats" are about as valuable as toilet paper.

 

[hcsilla]

I would disagree that Burke does all those things very well. He is certainly a very good shooter, he has the ability to penetrate and break down the defense, and he is a good passer. He is somewhere between a bellow average and a poor defender.

I don't know where is this myth coming from.

Burke is at least an average defender. Actually his on-ball defense is definitely above average, IMO. He might have some problems with defensive awareness and positioning at pick and rolls but I believe this is one of the easiest tasks to fix at the next level. He sometimes indeed seems to conserve his energy for offense what is more or less understandable since he was by far Michigan's best (offensive) player.

He is no Chris Paul in defense but I'm not sure Paul was a better defender in college either. Paul was more of a natural playmaker in NCAA but otherwise I don't really see how he has an edge over Burke as a college player.

To me, that's not a top 5 pick,

To me he is the only legit top5 pick in this year's draft.

He has everything that needed to become at least an above average starter in NBA without any red flags.

All other top5 pick nominees have much bigger holes in their profiles.

 

[sunsfan88]

For a waiter, no. For an NBA point guard, yes 6'1 is undersized. It's pretty much the equivalent of being 6'7 and playing power forward. And Burke is under 6 feet according to his recent measurements. He is undersized.

Steve

Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Mike Conley, Chris Paul, and Ty Lawson are all 6'1 or less and their all still outstanding superstar PGs of the league.

Height at the PG position doesn't matter if the player knows how to use it to their advantage and knows how their limitations.

For example, Kendall Marshall being tall hasn't exactly made him into a good PG.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Mike Conley, Chris Paul, and Ty Lawson are all 6'1 or less and their all still outstanding superstar PGs of the league.

Height at the PG position doesn't matter if the player knows how to use it to their advantage and knows how their limitations.

For example, Kendall Marshall being tall hasn't exactly made him into a good PG.

Disagree. Height (and length) at each position does matter. It's not the only thing that matters but all other things being equal a 6'3 guard is better equipped to survive and thrive in the NBA than a 5'11 player. And Burke isn't 6'1, he's 5'11 without shoes and that is the only true measure. Too many players through the years have fudged their measurements by wearing shoes that add an inch or two to their height, shoes that they have no intention of playing in. Spencer Hawes added more than two inches to his height thanks to his padded shoes. None of this means Trey won't be a star in the NBA, it just means he has one more hurdle to overcome.

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

Players play basketball in shoes so the height that matters is indeed their height with shoes on.

I'll agree with you that it cheats the system if a player wears elevated shoes only to increase their and don't wear those same shoes when playing basketball in the NBA.

And height at PG position does not matter as much because those guys I listed above will/has had longer careers than some who are taller than them.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Players play basketball in shoes so the height that matters is indeed their height with shoes on.

I'll agree with you that it cheats the system if a player wears elevated shoes only to increase their and don't wear those same shoes when playing basketball in the NBA.

And height at PG position does not matter as much because those guys I listed above will/has had longer careers than some who are taller than them.

Players have used that argument for years, mostly in an effort to take attention away from their true height. It muddies up what should be a very clear picture. All I know is that when I watch someone like Tony Parker play he doesn't look too short for the NBA, I don't see the same thing when I watch Trey Burke. Maybe I'm wrong but Tony looks a couple of inches taller to me.

Steve

 

[Superbone]

Players have used that argument for years, mostly in an effort to take attention away from their true height. It muddies up what should be a very clear picture. All I know is that when I watch someone like Tony Parker play he doesn't look too short for the NBA, I don't see the same thing when I watch Trey Burke. Maybe I'm wrong but Tony looks a couple of inches taller to me.

Steve

How about when you watch Ty Lawson or Nate Robinson?

 

[AzStevenCal]

How about when you watch Ty Lawson or Nate Robinson?

I like Ty Lawson and I think he's a pretty decent point guard. But that isn't really the point here. Trey Burke was arguably the best player in college this past season and I don't think that level of excellence will translate to the NBA due to his size. I think he'll have a decent career but I'm not sure he'll be a star and that's really all I've said about him. Ty Lawson is probably his ceiling, IMO, and in this weak of a draft that's probably enough of a return. I certainly would not waste a top 5 pick on Nate Robinson though but I'm not a Nate fan. Not that Trey is anything like him. And yes, Trey is clearly taller than Nate and looks to be a little taller than Lawson (to me).

Steve

 

[ASUCHRIS]

How about when you watch Ty Lawson or Nate Robinson?

Ty Lawson is arguably the fastest PG in the league. Burke isn't even fast for this draft.

 

[sunsfan88]

@PaolaBoivin

ESPN's Chad Ford said these are #PhoenixSuns ' preferences if they land 1 of top three picks: Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo, CJ McCollum

I'm starting to like McCollum a lot but I wonder if top 3 is a bit of a reach for him. Of course this could just be a smokescreen given to Ford.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I'm calling it right now. CJ will be one of the 3 best scorers to come out of this draft. Wouldn't be shocked if he is scoring 20 ppg by his second season.

Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk 2

 

[AzStevenCal]

I didn't see much of CJ McCollum other than his stellar tourney game against Duke in 2012 so I really don't know what to think of him. I had him on my list to watch a few games and then he broke his foot before I got around to catching Lehigh. I'd be a little worried over the type of injury he sustained as it appeared to be from normal movement rather than contact.

Steve

 

[JCSunsfan]

cj seems like the best bet to be a prolific scorer. He will be an undersized 2. Jason Terry, Monta Ellis, Leandro Barbosa esqe.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

cj seems like the best bet to be a prolific scorer. He will be an undersized 2. Jason Terry, Monta Ellis, Leandro Barbosa esqe.

I don't know. McLemore seems like he has a serious shot at being a good scorer as well.

Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk 2

 

[sunsfan88]

cj seems like the best bet to be a prolific scorer. He will be an undersized 2. Jason Terry, Monta Ellis, Leandro Barbosa esqe.

If we can get a really good deal for Dragic, something along the lines of Dragic + Beasley to Dallas for their pick or Dragic to Utah for Favors or something like that, I would take that deal and then let McCollum being our starting PG.

I love Dragic but he's already 27 years old. He's not going to be in his prime when this team is finally ready to contend. We should sell high while we can.

 

[JS22]

If we can get a really good deal for Dragic, something along the lines of Dragic + Beasley to Dallas for their pick or Dragic to Utah for Favors or something like that, I would take that deal and then let McCollum being our starting PG.

I love Dragic but he's already 27 years old. He's not going to be in his prime when this team is finally ready to contend. We should sell high while we can.

Trading Dragic is a great way to alienate future FA's and your fans. The Suns drafted him, then traded him. Then signed him as a FA. You can't trade him..AGAIN.. less than a year later. Just makes your organization look bad.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If we can get a really good deal for Dragic, something along the lines of Dragic + Beasley to Dallas for their pick or Dragic to Utah for Favors or something like that, I would take that deal and then let McCollum being our starting PG.

I love Dragic but he's already 27 years old. He's not going to be in his prime when this team is finally ready to contend. We should sell high while we can.

Dragic has 8 years of prime play left IMO. It should not take that long. Good young players need a mix of vets and youth to develop. Going radically young is a way to stay in the cellar forever. The Clippers tried to go all young all the time for years but could not get better for this very reason.

 

[JCSunsfan]

CJ McCollum comes across to me like a Monta Ellis. Is that a fair assessment for his NBA ceiling?