Amare Ought to be Embarassed

[Covert Rain]

In any case, Kerr cannot afford to let Amare walk away. This team will return to being a real lottery team. Look at teams like Minnesota and Memphis it you want to see how quickly losing a quality big can kill a team.

You nailed it. You CANNOT under any circumstances let Amare walk for nothing. It's a fact that teams that have let guys at Amare's level walk take years and years to recover. If Amare walks we don't get any salary relief. If Amare walks we don't get picks. If Amare walks we don't get any talent in return to either build on or use in future trades.

The Suns don't have a ton of young talent to deal. We have no salary cap space to bring in any big time free agent. Even if we did, it would take trading away some of the very players that would attract free agents to play here.

It took the Suns years to get a quality big man. Hearing Suns fans complain about not having a big man was sort of like saying the sky was blue. They don't grow on trees.

Amare is not the perfect big man. I would like it if he became more consistent in parts of his game. I would like Amare to be more focused. However, Amare is Amare. He is not Doris Diaw. He has not been dogging it through these playoffs. He until last night has simply been outplayed.

Amare will get a max contract because big men are a commodity in the NBA. Even imperfect big men. I understand why people say Amare is not worth a max contract but the NBA market says differently. There will be teams lining up to give him the max.

Bottom line is letting Amare walk for nothing will do much more damage to this organization then signing him to a max contract IMO.

 

[jagu]

I don't know how the Suns can move forward competitively by offering him a max contract though. He is definitely going to get a max somewhere.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You nailed it. You CANNOT under any circumstances let Amare walk for nothing. It's a fact that teams that have let guys at Amare's level walk take years and years to recover. If Amare walks we don't get any salary relief. If Amare walks we don't get picks. If Amare walks we don't get any talent in return to either build on or use in future trades.

Actually, you want to credit that to Irish (who I was quoting). I'm on the other side of this argument. I wasn't always on the other side though. Until recently, I consistently made this same point. Now, however, if it boils down to a choice between giving Amare a max length/max dollars contract or letting him walk without compensation, I'm in favor of letting him walk.

My first choice would be a sign and trade and my next choice would be signing him to a contract commensurate with a 2nd tier player. If he's going to disappear for stretches it's absurd to give him a superstar contract and it's even more absurd when you consider his far-from-insubstantial injury risks.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

My first choice would be a sign and trade and my next choice would be signing him to a contract commensurate with a 2nd tier player. If he's going to disappear for stretches it's absurd to give him a superstar contract and it's even more absurd when you consider his far-from-insubstantial injury risks.

Steve

I just don't see any scenario in which letting him walk for nothing helps the Suns.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I just don't see any scenario in which letting him walk for nothing helps the Suns.

By itself, it doesn't help. It's just that the cost of keeping him is likely to be even more devastating than the cost of letting him walk. It's a bad situation for us barring a value-for-value sign and trade which isn't very likely. Coming as it does just prior to a major change in the salary structure it's simply a risk we can't afford, IMO.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

By itself, it doesn't help. It's just that the cost of keeping him is likely to be even more devastating than the cost of letting him walk. It's a bad situation for us barring a value-for-value sign and trade which isn't very likely. Coming as it does just prior to a major change in the salary structure it's simply a risk we can't afford, IMO.

Steve

Losing something for absolutely nothing isn't better....ever.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Losing something for absolutely nothing isn't better....ever.

Pay Amare the max for 7 years and then have him come up lame in the first year of that contract and we'll see if you still think it's this simple. And over-paying someone just because you're afraid to lose him for nothing is rarely a good decision either. Maybe after we lock him up we can offer big money to get Penny Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, Googs and Danny Manning to come play for us also. Of course, then we're off to Haiti to engage in a little unprotected sex just to complete the thrill ride (to paraphrase a very funny Saturday Night Live routine).

Signing him to a max deal would still be a risky proposition even if we had reason to expect his health to outlast the contract. Someone mentioned how Minnesota has struggled after losing their big man but a better comparison would be to look at Minny before the trade. They spent a lot of money on a player that was not equal to that contract (though great) and they were unable to build a winner because of it.

If Cuban and Sarver were to trade franchises I'd be clamoring for the Dallas Suns to re-sign Amare at any cost. Cuban can afford to take that risk and he would find a way to add pieces in an effort to win it all, something Sarver just can't do.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

Pay Amare the max for 7 years and then have him come up lame in the first year of that contract and we'll see if you still think it's this simple. And over-paying someone just because you're afraid to lose him for nothing is rarely a good decision either. Maybe after we lock him up we can offer big money to get Penny Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, Googs and Danny Manning to come play for us also. Of course, then we're off to Haiti to engage in a little unprotected sex just to complete the thrill ride (to paraphrase a very funny Saturday Night Live routine).

Orrrr...you pay Amare the max for 7 years, he holds up and get the same Amare we have always had. That same Amare whose teams have brought some playoff success.

P.S. Comparing Amare to those players who after injury were horrible is not even comparable. Amare came back and is still one of the best players at his position in the entire NBA.

Signing him to a max deal would still be a risky proposition even if we had reason to expect his health to outlast the contract. Someone mentioned how Minnesota has struggled after losing their big man but a better comparison would be to look at Minny before the trade. They spent a lot of money on a player that was not equal to that contract (though great) and they were unable to build a winner because of it.

Minnesota made a bunch of dumb moves with other contracts and rounded out their roster with some bad picks. That is bad management. That isn't evidence that Minnesota is better off since trading away a big.

If Cuban and Sarver were to trade franchises I'd be clamoring for the Dallas Suns to re-sign Amare at any cost. Cuban can afford to take that risk and he would find a way to add pieces in an effort to win it all, something Sarver just can't do.Steve

I don't buy it. If Dirk were to sign with the Suns (somehow), Cuban's first call goes to Amare and pays Amare the max.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Orrrr...you pay Amare the max for 7 years, he holds up and get the same Amare we have always had.

Sure, that's a possibility. But as a business decision the risk simply isn't worth the reward. If stories are true, he's demanding a max contract and there is every reason to believe that contract will become an albatross. This league is in trouble financially and there will be major changes in the salary structure and/or there will be fewer teams in the NBA. There are only a few organizations that will be able to start into the new CBA with a first year max length/max term contract and we aren't one of them. It's one thing to have an out-of-balance contract with Kobe or Lebron but it's quite another to do it with someone like Amare.

I don't buy it. If Dirk were to sign with the Suns (somehow), Cuban's first call goes to Amare and pays Amare the max.

You're either skipping entire sentences or you're just guessing what I'm going to say because the vast majority of your post has nothing to do with the quotes you address and this is a perfect example. Please re-read the paragraph you're responding to.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

Sure, that's a possibility. But as a business decision the risk simply isn't worth the reward. If stories are true, he's demanding a max contract and there is every reason to believe that contract will become an albatross. This league is in trouble financially and there will be major changes in the salary structure and/or there will be fewer teams in the NBA. There are only a few organizations that will be able to start into the new CBA with a first year max length/max term contract and we aren't one of them. It's one thing to have an out-of-balance contract with Kobe or Lebron but it's quite another to do it with someone like Amare.

If big men were abundant in the NBA and I had any hope the Suns could land one without waiting 10+ years I would agree. The fact that it probably won't happen outweighs the risk for me.

You're either skipping entire sentences or you're just guessing what I'm going to say because the vast majority of your post has nothing to do with the quotes you address and this is a perfect example. Please re-read the paragraph you're responding to.
Steve

No skipping, no guessing. More like trying to interpret what your saying. When you have sentences like this:

"If Cuban and Sarver were to trade franchises I'd be clamoring for the Dallas Suns to re-sign Amare at any cost."

It's a tad hard to get what your trying to say. After re-reading it I think I understand what your saying. I think your saying Sarver can't afford to take the risk but Cuban can. It's bunk. Sarver has gone on record he is willing to spend as long as the team is a contender.

 

[AzStevenCal]

No skipping, no guessing. More like trying to interpret what your saying.

It's a tad hard to get what your trying to say.

Fair enough.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

If big men were abundant in the NBA and I had any hope the Suns could land one without waiting 10+ years I would agree. The fact that it probably won't happen outweighs the risk for me.

There's only one situation that would drive me to re-sign Amare at the max if I were running the organization. If I had enough inside knowledge to be sure that his contract would be movable in the 2nd through 6th years of the deal it might be worth the risk. And by inside knowledge, I'm referring to the upcoming CBA fight. If the contract side was reasonably safe, I'd gamble that he could avoid a career killing injury for a year or two.

Steve

 

[Covert Rain]

There's only one situation that would drive me to re-sign Amare at the max if I were running the organization. If I had enough inside knowledge to be sure that his contract would be movable in the 2nd through 6th years of the deal it might be worth the risk. And by inside knowledge, I'm referring to the upcoming CBA fight. If the contract side was reasonably safe, I'd gamble that he could avoid a career killing injury for a year or two.

Steve

Speaking of the CBA...why do I have a feeling this is going to be really ugly this time around?!?

 

[AzStevenCal]

Speaking of the CBA...why do I have a feeling this is going to be really ugly this time around?!?

Think Charles Barkley in a chartreuse tutu with a Momma Stat wig. It's gonna get scary ugly.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

My guess is that the decision to pay Amare what he feels entitled to is going to hinge on what he does the remainder of these playoffs. If he tears it up like he did in game 3 and we win the championship, he's almost certain to get it. If he tears it up but we fall short of that his chances are not so good though probably over 50-50. With every repeat of his game 1/2 performances his chances are going to drop - especially if the Lakers bounce us out quite easily.

Personally, I don't want to watch him play basketball any longer (for the Suns). I was beginning to change my mind about that before the playoffs after seeing three months of sustained effort and a bit more maturity, but I feel like I was hoodwinked now. It wasn't just the two games against the Lakers - the one time of year Amare stepped his game up consistently was the playoffs but I didn't see that in the first two series. I agree with Steve about that - he was not close to a max player.

Obviously the team is in a tough spot about him - he is clearly not a max player but he will demand the max. Some idiot GM will probably give it to him, too, if we don't. I have a slender hope that the dimmest of the breed will see the risk, elevated as it is by the imminent change the league salary structure.

The question about whether we were overpaying a player or would be if we gave him what he wanted has come up many times - Gugliotta, Hardaway, Marion, Marbury, Joe Johnson, Diaw that I can think of off the top of my head. I was opposed to every instance, except Diaw (I hang my head in shame for that one). The main thing is that in retrospect its easy to see that in no case would it have been disaster if we'd not made the deal. The closest call is Joe Johnson and that story isn't finished yet but its looking less and less like the mistake many thought it was.

Anyway, I have no qualms about letting Amare walk in preference to paying him near the max as that is paying far more than he's demonstrated he is worth.

 

[cly2tw]

How about we go after Dwight Howard? He's got about 70% of Amare's offense but better rebounding. heheh

 

[mojorizen7]

How about we go after Dwight Howard? He's got about 70% of Amare's offense but better rebounding. heheh

Yeah if we cant work out a S&T w/Amare and he walk's w/no compensation the realistic pickings at PF are slim to none.

It may be best to approach this summers FA with the "best available" regardless of position.

Rudy Gay is still not resigned. Last i heard he was looking for $10 mill/yr on a 5 year deal.
I love our young,energetic bench and a couple other pieces but losing a scorer like Amare will bury this team, leaving a huge hole at PF.

There'll be plenty of time to speculate on all this.

 

[Covert Rain]

Yeah if we cant work out a S&T w/Amare and he walk's w/no compensation the realistic pickings at PF are slim to none.

It may be best to approach this summers FA with the "best available" regardless of position.

Rudy Gay is still not resigned. Last i heard he was looking for $10 mill/yr on a 5 year deal.
I love our young,energetic bench and a couple other pieces but losing a scorer like Amare will bury this team, leaving a huge hole at PF.

There'll be plenty of time to speculate on all this.

People are living in la la land if they think Amare is easily replaceable. Let alone doing it with a 10 to 12 million dollar a year player. If Amare walks, this team will be blown up by All-Star break (or sooner) next season.

Amare might not be on the same level as Lebron or Kobe but that doesn't mean he is all of the sudden he is Kwame Brown. I keep hearing Amare is not a Tier 1 player. Maybe not, but he is not a Tier 2 player either. He is probably somewhere in between. Having said that, the mere fact he is an immensely skilled big man means he is a Tier tweener that will command top dollar.

I can't wait for all the bitching to start on this board if Amare walks and the Suns go into the drain. I can hear it now.....Suns fans complaining that the Suns need to get a legit big man will be like the comeback of a bad 80's song.

I am all for a sign and trade or signing him. Letting him walk?

 

[AzStevenCal]

People are living in la la land if they think Amare is easily replaceable. Let alone doing it with a 10 to 12 million dollar a year player. If Amare walks, this team will be blown up by All-Star break (or sooner) next season.

Amare might not be on the same level as Lebron or Kobe but that doesn't mean he is all of the sudden he is Kwame Brown. I keep hearing Amare is not a Tier 1 player. Maybe not, but he is not a Tier 2 player either. He is probably somewhere in between. Having said that, the mere fact he is an immensely skilled big man means he is a Tier tweener that will command top dollar.

I can't wait for all the bitching to start on this board if Amare walks and the Suns go into the drain. I can hear it now.....Suns fans complaining that the Suns need to get a legit big man will be like the comeback of a bad 80's song.

I am all for a sign and trade or signing him. Letting him walk?

Wow, you're all over the map with your generalizations and accusations there. You're right about some things but you sneak in a lot of junk too.

First off, find me one credible poster that has suggested Amare will be easily replaceable. Then, find me one credible poster that places Amare anywhere near the "Kwame Brown" level. And while you're at it, again, find me one credible poster that advocates letting him walk over a sign and trade.

Do the above three and maybe you'll have a case for riding your high horse through this message board. You can sit there smugly while the rest of us complain that we need a big man.

Look, I think all of us us agree we are better off getting something for Amare if he leaves (it's just that some of us want him to leave). And most of us agree that, at the worst, he is a pretty good player that occasionally rises to the level of greatness. We just don't think our organization can afford to keep him around for 7 years on a max contract, especially given the upcoming CBA restructuring.

If Amare just walks away we are going to have a hard time replacing him. He may not be a tier 1 player but he's near the top of the next group and big men do come at a premium. But overpaying him is just too scary a proposition unless you're confident his contract will be moveable down the road.

Steve

 

[ninous26]

1 sentece will sum it up here:

If Amare Stoudemire is not on the Phoenix Suns roster next season, then it will be bye bye Suns for a long time.... There's the one sentence.

Thats how important this man is to this team.

 

[Bufalay]

Yeah, now that you mention it, I'm having second thoughts about paying Dragic $20 million per year also.

Maybe I should've made my point more explicit. I am not saying that Amare should be held to the same standard as Dragic. Nor was I trying to justify paying Amare a maximum salary. I was trying to point out that a player's performance is variable from game to game and these variations cannot always be attributed to variations in effort, desire or contract situation.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I was trying to point out that a player's performance is variable from game to game and these variations cannot always be attributed to variations in effort, desire or contract situation.

I agree. People have bad games, even superstars, and it doesn't always mean a lack of effort or preparation. That said, some players do not know how to remain aggressive if they are not having their way. Amare is apparently one of those guys and as such he is not the kind of max contract player that can carry a team to a championship.

All you have to do is watch any half from the Portland or even SA series and compare it to the 1st half of game 3 vs the Lakers to see the huge difference in the effectiveness of this team when Amare is active. And when he stops being aggressive on offense, his defense and rebounding go from slightly below average to horrible.

Steve

 

[jagu]

You can make all the excuses for Amare. If you can't perform offensively okay. But to do what he did defensively and on the boards in Game 1 and 2 is about as clear as daylight in terms of effort. When your on your heels on defense and giving up easy point after easy point your mind is not in the game. Amare when he gets that no fear attitude is friggin unstoppable, simple as that. If he has poor games offensively he goes into this shell and hides there.

 

[Cheesebeef]

1 sentece will sum it up here:

If Amare Stoudemire is not on the Phoenix Suns roster next season, then it will be bye bye Suns for a long time.... There's the one sentence.

Thats how important this man is to this team.

meanwhile, if Amare IS one the roster next season and beyond, then it will be bye bye at some point before we win a title because when you're Super Max guy only brings SUPER MAX effort sporadically, you've got no shot to win a title.

i think the Suns are in a can't win position with regards to Amare. Without him, they probably won't be relevant for years but with him choking up the salary structure, they'll probably never win a title... kind of leaves them in limbo either way.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

meanwhile, if Amare IS one the roster next season and beyond, then it will be bye bye at some point before we win a title because when you're Super Max guy only brings SUPER MAX effort sporadically, you've got no shot to win a title.

i think the Suns are in a can't win position with regards to Amare. Without him, they probably won't be relevant for years but with him choking up the salary structure, they'll probably never win a title... kind of leaves them in limbo either way.

that's why you have to resign him to supermax contract and hope you luck into:

1. a kobe bryant with a mid-round pick
2. a team looking to give a pau gasol away
3. smart late round drafting netting you a player like rondo
4. aging vets that want to play a championship signing with you for dirt cheap