Arizona Cardinals' 2011: The QB Search By The Numbers

[Mitch]

Finding a Potential Super Bowl Winning Quarterback:

When one studies the past 8 Super Bowl Winning QBs---here are the numbers (years in the NFL/years as starter):

2011 Aaron Rodgers (6/3)
2010 Drew Brees (9/7)
2009 Ben Roethlisberger (5/5)
2008 Eli Manning (4/4)
2007 Peyton Manning (8/8)
2006 Ben Roethlisberger (2/2)
2005 Tom Brady (5/4)
2004 Tom Brady (4/3)

Note: With the exception of Tom Brady (who---as we all know---is the anomaly on this list for having been selected in the 6th round of the 2000 draft) all of these QB were top 33 picks in their respective draft classes. Interestingly, only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks. Brees was the 33rd pick (1st pick of 2nd round in 2001). Roethlisberger was taken with the 10th pick of the 2004 draft, and Rodgers was taken with the 21st pick of the 2005 draft.

Common Denominators:

Average years in the NFL: 5.4
Average years as starters: 4.5
QBs Drafted in Top 33 Picks: 6/7
QBs Winning Super Bowls with the Team that Drafted Them: 7/8
Average Starting Year: 1.8 (within the second year)

What these numbers suggest:

1-You find your SBW QB in the 1st Round
2-You start him within the first or second year
3-You can win Super Bowls as early as Year 2 (Brady and Roethlisberger) and as late as Year 8 (P. Manning)---which creates approximately a 6 year window, if you have a reasonably consistent playoff contender.

Player Notes:

6 of these 7 QB played in major BSC conferences in college:

Rodgers: Pac-10
Brees & Brady: Big Ten
Manning Bros: SEC

ALL of the 7 QBs are efficient pocket passers.

Size/Weight/Arm Strength/Accuracy/Mobility

Rodgers: 6-2, 220, *****, ****, ****
Brees: 6-0, 209, ****, *****, ****
Roethlisberger: 6-5, 241, ****, ****, ****
E. Manning: 6-4, 225, ****, ***, ***
P. Manning: 6-5, 230, ****, ****, **
Brady: 6-4, 225, ****, *****, ****

Averages: 6-3, 225, ****, ****, ****

Before we take a look at the 2011 Free Agent/Trade Possibility/Draft QB Prospects...let's also take a close look at the other 2010 playoff QBs (not highlighted above):

NFC:

Jay Cutler (5/5) 6-3, 233 SEC, Round 1
Matt Hasselbeck (12/8) 6-4, 225, Big East, Round 6
Matt Ryan (3/3) 6-4, 213, ACC, Round 1
Michael Vick (8/8) 6-0, 215, Big East, Round 1

AFC:

Mark Sanchez (2/2) 6-2, 225, Pac-10, Round 1
Joe Flacco (3/3) 6-6, 235, Div. 1AA, Round 1
Matt Cassel (6/3) 6-4, 230, Pac-10. Round 7

Averages: (5.6/4.6), 6-3, 225, BSC, Round 1

With these numbers and averages in mind...let's take a look at current NFL QBs who have 3-7 years of experience and have started at least one game:

Kevin Kolb (PHI): (4/1) 6-3, 218, Round 2
Matt Flynn (GB): (3/0) 6-2, 222, Round 7
Tarvaris Jackson (MIN): (5/1) 6-2, 225, Round 2
Matt Moore (CAR): (4/2) 6-3, 202, CFA
Josh Johnson (TB): (3/1) 6-3, 205, Round 5
Alex Smith (SF): (6/4) 6-4, 217, Round 1
Charlie Whitehurst (SEA): (5/1) 6-5, 225, Round 3
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF): (6/1) 6-2, 225, Round 7
Trent Edwards (UFA): (4/2) 6-4, 231, Round 3
Chad Henne (MIA): (3/2) 6-3, 230, Round 2
Tyler Thigpen (MIA): (4/1) 6-1, 224, Round 7
Troy Smith (SF): (4/1) 6-0, 225, Round 5
Seneca Wallace (CLE): (6/2) 5-11, 205, Round 4
Dennis Dixon (PIT): (3/1) 6-3, 209, Round 5
Vince Young (TEN): (5/3) 6-5, 233, Round 1
Kyle Orton (DEN): (6/4) 6-4, 225, Round 4
Jason Campbell (OAK): (6/5) 6-5, 230, Round 1
Bruce Gradkowski (OAK): (4/2) 6-1, 220, Round 6

So, what QBs on this list seem to fit the averages the best?

I would narrow it to:

Alex Smith
Vince Young
Jason Campbell
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
Kyle Orton

The million dollar question is: can any of these QBs win a Super Bowl? If they are capable, they likely have a 1-5 year window in which to do it.

The only Super Bowl winning QB in the last 8 years to win it with a team other than the one that drafted him is Drew Brees.

Do you see any Drew Brees qualities in any of these QBs?

The only one that pops out at me is Kyle Orton---who seems to be the most efficient of the bunch. Alex Smith has the talent---maybe more natural talent than the rest---but thus far he's had trouble being consistent and producing in the clutch. Vince Young has tremendous physcial talent---but---he's been a head case. Jason Campbell shows occasional flashes of brilliance---but rarely seems to establish a consistent rhythm or focus to his game. Chad Henne is the toughest of the bunch---but is coming off a very disappointing year. Kevin Kolb---looks the part---but was 2-4 on a playoff team last year and no one really knows if he's a big-time player or not. As for Orton---he was the one stablizing factor on a team in total disarray the past two years. He doesn't wow you with his skills---but he plays smart and consistently focused....somewhat like Drew Brees when you think about it.

Alex Smith and Vince Young will be UFAs...the rest would have to be traded for. Do the Cardinals save the draft picks and make a pitch for Smith or Young?

While Kurt Warner at his age was quite an anomaly---to say the least---what the Super Bowl Winning QB numbers suggest more than anything else is that there is virtually no way a team will win it with an older QB...i.e. Marc Bulger, etc.


The 2011 Draft: Top QB Prospects

1-Cam Newton (Auburn) 6-6, 247
2-Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) 6-5, 240
3-Jake Locker (Washington) 6-3, 226
4-Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) 6-7, 238

These are big strong QBs with very good arms. Pocket passers---and in Newton and Locker you get rare mobility to boot.

If the Cardinals draft one of them at #5...the history of the Super Bowl Winning QBs would strongly suggest that the team starts the young QB's playing clock early.

I am fine with that...

But first...let's take a close look at the propect we already have in John Skelton. Skelton's clock has already started, as he started the last 4 games. he won two of the four and won one in dramatic fashion by directing a come from behind victory versus the Cowboys on Christmas.

Skelton has Ben Roethlisberger type size (6-5, 244)...looks similarly tough in the pocket and on the move...may have an even stronger arm than Big Ben's...but at this point is still raw---understandably in that he came from a small school...but then again so did Big Ben.

What Skelton needs to work on most is his sense of timing in the offense...he needs to read the plays quicker and deliver the ball faster. We don't know yet if this is something he will always have trouble with, or whether this is something that he can improve quickly.

The fact that Skelton had not been given any reps with the first team all year when he was thrust into the starter's role...imo, makes what he was able to accomplish in 4 games even more impressive. This tells me that his ability to learn and to make adjustments is very good.

So, the question is...when you look at Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett...do you think any of them are head and shoulders more promising as an a NFL QB prospect than John Skelton?

Cam Newton is very intriguing because he has a rare combination of size, strength and wheels. Yet, there seems to be something Vince Young-esque about this kid. At times he seems to have his head in the clouds---and---he's only played one year of football at a high level. Vince Young's transition as a throwing/running college QB phenom into the NFL has been a rather difficult one.

Blaine Gabbert intrigues me because he can get rid of the ball quickly...which is the area that John Skelton needs to improve most. But Gabbert does not strike me as being anywhere near as tough physcially as Skelton is. Moreover, Gabbert's low percentages in key third down conversion situations concerns me.

Locker is a great athlete...but he's all over the place.

Mallett throws a great ball...and can throw it into tight windows...but, the questions about his character cannot be ignored, especially when you are picking #5 in the draft.

Thus, the ony two picks at #5 that make sense are Newton and Gabbert. I think there's a decent chance that they both will be taken before the Cardinals pick. I am convinced that Newton will emerge as the clear #1 pick in the draft. The buzz around him will be extraordinary---and---did you watch the clips of his media tryout? I don't care what anyone says---Trent Dilfer is right---Newton's performance was jaw-dropping, to say the least.

And I see Gabbert as a very good fit with either the Bills at #3 or the Bengals at #4. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the QBOF in Buffalo...and Carson Palmer is selling his house in Cincinnati. Maybe Gabbert will buy it. He's likely to be rich enough.

The question is...if the Cardinals are enamored with Newton and believe he's the QB they want, would they be willing to trade up to the #1 spot?

There actually is a scenario here which would cause Ron Riviera and the Panthers to consider. They do not have a 2nd round pick, having traded it to the Patriots. If the Cardinals were to offer the #5 and #38 picks and ask for the Panthers' #1 and their 4th rounder (first pick of Day 3)...the Panthers could add the 2nd rounder they need and still be able to draft one of the top defensive players (Fairley, Bowers, Dareus, Peterson, Miller or Quinn) at #5.

Are any of you high enough on Cam Newton to make that deal?

I am intrigued...I will say that.

And the fact that so many of the Super Bowl Winning QBs are 1st round picks...makes me feel all the more aware of what this year's draft could mean.

You have to have a franchise QB these days...there's no two ways around it.

 

[PJ1]

My Lord if we TRADED UP to take Newton I would probably need immediate medical attention. I don't want him at # 5 much less moving up for him.

 

[Cardiac]

Yet another person doing research on why we should consider taking a QB in rd1, good stuff Mitch.

Drew Brees was actually the 32nd player taken but it was a 2nd rd pick. It was the year before the Texans joined the league. So I consider him a 1st rd pick

I don't trade up for a QB in this draft at this point. If Newton wows them during the interviews etc I might consider it. Get back to me in a month or so I might be with you on trading up.

 

[desertdawg]

Nice write up homie. I like me some Skelton too, kid's got some nice size and doesn't get rattled like others drafted ahead of him. With the lockout probably going to happen unless the players bring some KY to whatever meeting the Owners might show up to, I say screw the vet and roll with Skelton. No lightning in the bottle retread costing us millions while not getting our possible QBs of the future on the field to learn.

This would allow us to go QB in the first round, and no way am I trading up to do it. If Newton is gone, (this is all pre-combine talk right?) I take Gabbert all day. While not my first choice, he would become the best QB available and he does look promising.

So no expensive (expensive by trade or money) Vet for me thank you. Let's go for the future of the franchise.

First round pick:
Newton if he is there
Gabbert if Newton is gone
If both these QBs are gone than you defense gurus have at it (Can you imagine the choices), no other QBs to draft in the first IMO. I wouldn't trade up or down unless it was a supersweet deal, that doesn't happen to us.

 

[Hypothesis]

Note: With the exception of Tom Brady (who---as we all know---is the anomaly on this list for having been selected in the 6th round of the 2000 draft) all of these QB were top 33 picks in their respective draft classes. Interestingly, only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks. Brees was the 33rd pick (1st pick of 2nd round in 2001). Roethlisberger was taken with the 10th pick of the 2004 draft, and Rodgers was taken with the 21st pick of the 2005 draft.

Great job Mitch! This is the part that really stuck out to me.

 

[Duckjake]

It is really hard for me to take anything out of the numbers involving who QBd the winning team in the last 8 SBs when half the games were won by 2 teams and you have to go back to the 2002 season to find an AFC Champ who wasn't Pittsburgh, Indianapolis or New England.

Interesting that nobody is talking about how a Wild Card team has now won 3 of the last 6 SuperBowls.

 

[SuperSpck]

Terrific write-up!

 

[JAB]

Terrific write-up!

Really? We pick our QB by years in the league to years started on a sample of the last 8 years? I respect the time it took but it was barely readable for me.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I find it funny everyone is ready to question Mallett's character, but a lot of the same people dismiss Newton's character issues. Newton was caught at Florida with stolen property and his father admitted being involved in a pay-for-play scheme.

Most of Mallett's issues are "rumors" and according to most who know him or have closely followed his career, he has grown up a lot over the past two seasons.

IMO of the QBs at the top of the draft he has the most special skills. Newton is a nice runner, but won't be an elite running QB at the NFL level. Mallett has an amazing arm; he'll probably have the strongest arm in the NFL as a rookie. And his accuracy is vastly underrated; watch him play and you'll see him make NFL throws on a weekly that few college QBs make in their college career.

As much as I like Mallett, I don't think we have the team for a rookie QB. I'd be much more inclined to take a rookie if our offensive line was better, but IMO a rookie would struggle behind our line right now.

I'd take a gamble on Alex Smith or trade for Orton, or both. IMO Alex Smith is better than what Niner fans will tell you. Whisenhunt would work wonders with Alex Smith, he has the tools to be a very good NFL QB.

 

[desertdawg]

As much as I like Mallett, I don't think we have the team for a rookie QB. I'd be much more inclined to take a rookie if our offensive line was better, but IMO a rookie would struggle behind our line right now.

I'd take a gamble on Alex Smith or trade for Orton, or both. IMO Alex Smith is better than what Niner fans will tell you. Whisenhunt would work wonders with Alex Smith, he has the tools to be a very good NFL QB.

I don't think we would start the rookie QB right away with Skelton and possibly whatever vet QB we bring in. I like Skelton getting the nod from day one, with a lockout, he will have the most knowledge in our playbook unless you count Hall.
This all fits in well for a solid 2-3 year plan, we aint bowl bound next year no matter who is QB-ing.

In 2-3 years the defense should have Horton's concept down. In 2-3 years I am hoping the O-line might be better, neither are gonna happen right away.

In 2-3 years, we should know what we have in Skelton (by giving him as many starts as possible) while this years first round QB draft pick gets the #2 spot, not the starter. That way if Skelton ends up looking more like a back up, we have a first rounder ready to put in that already knows our playbook.

But if you ask me, Newton is the best QB in the draft, but I think Gabbert is going to be a good one too.
Start Skelton, get the early first round QB that we can and develop at #2. QBOF best scenario, Skelton ends up being the man and we charge someone up the wazoo for our draft pick like others do. Peace on earth.

 

[Buckybird]

Good write up Mitch.

1) I wouldnt take a QB in Rd 1 because I'm not sold on any of those guys

2) If the Cards did draft a QB, I would take Gabbert

3) Sure Newton is an athletic freak & performed well in a rehearsal & shorts...shouldnt he? I wouldnt touch the kid in Rd 1

4) Did Skelton in any point of any game make you say, "wow he looks like a guy who can lead us to a championship"? IMO no!!! I can say that I did see that from Bradford this year at times.

 

[Duckjake]

I don't think we would start the rookie QB right away with Skelton and possibly whatever vet QB we bring in. I like Skelton getting the nod from day one, with a lockout, he will have the most knowledge in our playbook unless you count Hall.
This all fits in well for a solid 2-3 year plan, we aint bowl bound next year no matter who is QB-ing.

In 2-3 years the defense should have Horton's concept down. In 2-3 years I am hoping the O-line might be better, neither are gonna happen right away.

In 2-3 years, we should know what we have in Skelton (by giving him as many starts as possible) while this years first round QB draft pick gets the #2 spot, not the starter. That way if Skelton ends up looking more like a back up, we have a first rounder ready to put in that already knows our playbook.

But if you ask me, Newton is the best QB in the draft, but I think Gabbert is going to be a good one too.
Start Skelton, get the early first round QB that we can and develop at #2. QBOF best scenario, Skelton ends up being the man and we charge someone up the wazoo for our draft pick like others do. Peace on earth.

2013 or 2014 before we get to see another top team in Arizona?

Sadly I think you are right.

 

[desertdawg]

2013 or 2014 before we get to see another top team in Arizona?

Sadly I think you are right.

2012 at the earliest (playoffs), but I think our record will improve in 2011. This year (2011) will be the true rebuilding year IMO. I don't know what 2010 was.

 

[lobo]

2012 at the earliest (playoffs), but I think our record will improve in 2011. This year (2011) will be the true rebuilding year IMO. I don't know what 2010 was.

I do........The Perfect Storm

 

[Hypothesis]

2012 at the earliest (playoffs), but I think our record will improve in 2011. This year (2011) will be the true rebuilding year IMO. I don't know what 2010 was.

B.S.

We'll be back in the playoffs in 2011. You can bet your sweet bippy.

 

[desertdawg]

B.S.

We'll be back in the playoffs in 2011. You can bet your sweet bippy.

I don't think Horton will play the rookie LBs too much in 2011, I hope we get them too but our Defense might take a minute to transition. If a .500 season is good enough to make the 2011 playoffs, I concur, if Skelton gets the start .500 sounds about right, he might do better. Any other QB, and it is who knows. Could be better or worse. No more DA has to give us better odds than anything else.

Sorry for jack'n your thread Mitch, I just get all about it with this QB situation. I will chill bro.

 

[Buckybird]

I just get all about it with this QB situation.

This team has many more problems than the QB Dawg & thats a fact!!! The Oline, OLB, ILB are mediocre at best. This team isnt winning more than 7 games in the NFC Worst 2011 as its stands now. If the CBA isnt agreed upon we're screwed getting a QB who can possibly win some games because Skelton hasn't shown me he can do anything that leads this team to more wins than last year.

 

[Duckjake]

This team has many more problems than the QB Dawg & thats a fact!!! The Oline, OLB, ILB are mediocre at best. This team isnt winning more than 7 games in the NFC Worst 2011 as its stands now. If the CBA isnt agreed upon we're screwed getting a QB who can possibly win some games because Skelton hasn't shown me he can do anything that leads this team to more wins than last year.

Skelator is the only hope we have for 2011 if the NFL can't get their labor problems solved. Unless Big Bad John can play there simply is no way the Cards can have a game ready QB for 2011. Instead we will see a replay of 2010 or worse. 5-11 won't win the NFC West this fall.

No solution in the CBA negotiations and Skelator fails its 2000 again. We're staring 3-13 right in the face. The failure of Leinart to develop is, as predicted by some, having long term adverse implications for the Cardinals franchise. The ugly downside of taking a QB in the first round.

And some other team will go 2-14 and take Luck one slot ahead of us.

 

[ARodg]

The NFC West is both a blessing and a curse. The schedule is easy enough that a moderately competent team will make the playoffs, but it's difficult to have the worst record to get the #1 pick, because you're dealing with multiple levels of incompetence.

 

[Jersey Girl]

My Lord if we TRADED UP to take Newton I would probably need immediate medical attention. I don't want him at # 5 much less moving up for him.

I would offer to give you mouth-to-mouth, but I would be down on the floor right next to you.

It is really hard for me to take anything out of the numbers involving who QBd the winning team in the last 8 SBs when half the games were won by 2 teams and you have to go back to the 2002 season to find an AFC Champ who wasn't Pittsburgh, Indianapolis or New England.

Interesting that nobody is talking about how a Wild Card team has now won 3 of the last 6 SuperBowls.

Good points.

 

[Catfish]

I still believe that the best hope we have for QB is either through trade or free agency for 2011. If there is no CBA before the deadline this is not going to happen, and the answer is not going to be a QB from day one of this year's draft. The only hope that we will have will be to have a healthy Skelton, and a vastly improved defense from last year. That being said, I would still prefer to take QUINN, with the #5 pick, and then Kaepernick with the #38. QUINN gives us the best chance at what we lack right now on defense, a truly big, fast, quick, athletic rush linebacker who has a better than even chance to contribute this year. KAEPERNICK has the best upside of any QB in the draft, AND has the best body of work already completed by any QB in that draft.

 

[vinnymac]

I still believe that the best hope we have for QB is either through trade or free agency for 2011. If there is no CBA before the deadline this is not going to happen, and the answer is not going to be a QB from day one of this year's draft. The only hope that we will have will be to have a healthy Skelton, and a vastly improved defense from last year. That being said, I would still prefer to take QUINN, with the #5 pick, and then Kaepernick with the #38. QUINN gives us the best chance at what we lack right now on defense, a truly big, fast, quick, athletic rush linebacker who has a better than even chance to contribute this year. KAEPERNICK has the best upside of any QB in the draft, AND has the best body of work already completed by any QB in that draft.

I do like Kaepernick a lot. I believe his stock is going to rise in the next couple of months. He has a very strong arm and is athletic. Great name to. Sounds like one of those old school names before helments and real pads.

Ray Horton said that his defensive scheme is so complex that rookies don't get a chance to start.

People have to remeber that when you are drafting at the #5 spot that player has to be a starter from day one. You don't spend that much money on someone who is going to ride the bench.

 

[john h]

Finding a Potential Super Bowl Winning Quarterback:

When one studies the past 8 Super Bowl Winning QBs---here are the numbers (years in the NFL/years as starter):

2011 Aaron Rodgers (6/3)
2010 Drew Brees (9/7)
2009 Ben Roethlisberger (5/5)
2008 Eli Manning (4/4)
2007 Peyton Manning (8/8)
2006 Ben Roethlisberger (2/2)
2005 Tom Brady (5/4)
2004 Tom Brady (4/3)

Note: With the exception of Tom Brady (who---as we all know---is the anomaly on this list for having been selected in the 6th round of the 2000 draft) all of these QB were top 33 picks in their respective draft classes. Interestingly, only the Manning brothers were top 3 picks. Brees was the 33rd pick (1st pick of 2nd round in 2001). Roethlisberger was taken with the 10th pick of the 2004 draft, and Rodgers was taken with the 21st pick of the 2005 draft.

Common Denominators:

Average years in the NFL: 5.4
Average years as starters: 4.5
QBs Drafted in Top 33 Picks: 6/7
QBs Winning Super Bowls with the Team that Drafted Them: 7/8
Average Starting Year: 1.8 (within the second year)

What these numbers suggest:

1-You find your SBW QB in the 1st Round
2-You start him within the first or second year
3-You can win Super Bowls as early as Year 2 (Brady and Roethlisberger) and as late as Year 8 (P. Manning)---which creates approximately a 6 year window, if you have a reasonably consistent playoff contender.

Player Notes:

6 of these 7 QB played in major BSC conferences in college:

Rodgers: Pac-10
Brees & Brady: Big Ten
Manning Bros: SEC

ALL of the 7 QBs are efficient pocket passers.

Size/Weight/Arm Strength/Accuracy/Mobility

Rodgers: 6-2, 220, *****, ****, ****
Brees: 6-0, 209, ****, *****, ****
Roethlisberger: 6-5, 241, ****, ****, ****
E. Manning: 6-4, 225, ****, ***, ***
P. Manning: 6-5, 230, ****, ****, **
Brady: 6-4, 225, ****, *****, ****

Averages: 6-3, 225, ****, ****, ****

Before we take a look at the 2011 Free Agent/Trade Possibility/Draft QB Prospects...let's also take a close look at the other 2010 playoff QBs (not highlighted above):

NFC:

Jay Cutler (5/5) 6-3, 233 SEC, Round 1
Matt Hasselbeck (12/8) 6-4, 225, Big East, Round 6
Matt Ryan (3/3) 6-4, 213, ACC, Round 1
Michael Vick (8/8) 6-0, 215, Big East, Round 1

AFC:

Mark Sanchez (2/2) 6-2, 225, Pac-10, Round 1
Joe Flacco (3/3) 6-6, 235, Div. 1AA, Round 1
Matt Cassel (6/3) 6-4, 230, Pac-10. Round 7

Averages: (5.6/4.6), 6-3, 225, BSC, Round 1

With these numbers and averages in mind...let's take a look at current NFL QBs who have 3-7 years of experience and have started at least one game:

Kevin Kolb (PHI): (4/1) 6-3, 218, Round 2
Matt Flynn (GB): (3/0) 6-2, 222, Round 7
Tarvaris Jackson (MIN): (5/1) 6-2, 225, Round 2
Matt Moore (CAR): (4/2) 6-3, 202, CFA
Josh Johnson (TB): (3/1) 6-3, 205, Round 5
Alex Smith (SF): (6/4) 6-4, 217, Round 1
Charlie Whitehurst (SEA): (5/1) 6-5, 225, Round 3
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF): (6/1) 6-2, 225, Round 7
Trent Edwards (UFA): (4/2) 6-4, 231, Round 3
Chad Henne (MIA): (3/2) 6-3, 230, Round 2
Tyler Thigpen (MIA): (4/1) 6-1, 224, Round 7
Troy Smith (SF): (4/1) 6-0, 225, Round 5
Seneca Wallace (CLE): (6/2) 5-11, 205, Round 4
Dennis Dixon (PIT): (3/1) 6-3, 209, Round 5
Vince Young (TEN): (5/3) 6-5, 233, Round 1
Kyle Orton (DEN): (6/4) 6-4, 225, Round 4
Jason Campbell (OAK): (6/5) 6-5, 230, Round 1
Bruce Gradkowski (OAK): (4/2) 6-1, 220, Round 6

So, what QBs on this list seem to fit the averages the best?

I would narrow it to:

Alex Smith
Vince Young
Jason Campbell
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
Kyle Orton

The million dollar question is: can any of these QBs win a Super Bowl? If they are capable, they likely have a 1-5 year window in which to do it.

The only Super Bowl winning QB in the last 8 years to win it with a team other than the one that drafted him is Drew Brees.

Do you see any Drew Brees qualities in any of these QBs?

The only one that pops out at me is Kyle Orton---who seems to be the most efficient of the bunch. Alex Smith has the talent---maybe more natural talent than the rest---but thus far he's had trouble being consistent and producing in the clutch. Vince Young has tremendous physcial talent---but---he's been a head case. Jason Campbell shows occasional flashes of brilliance---but rarely seems to establish a consistent rhythm or focus to his game. Chad Henne is the toughest of the bunch---but is coming off a very disappointing year. Kevin Kolb---looks the part---but was 2-4 on a playoff team last year and no one really knows if he's a big-time player or not. As for Orton---he was the one stablizing factor on a team in total disarray the past two years. He doesn't wow you with his skills---but he plays smart and consistently focused....somewhat like Drew Brees when you think about it.

Alex Smith and Vince Young will be UFAs...the rest would have to be traded for. Do the Cardinals save the draft picks and make a pitch for Smith or Young?

While Kurt Warner at his age was quite an anomaly---to say the least---what the Super Bowl Winning QB numbers suggest more than anything else is that there is virtually no way a team will win it with an older QB...i.e. Marc Bulger, etc.


The 2011 Draft: Top QB Prospects

1-Cam Newton (Auburn) 6-6, 247
2-Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) 6-5, 240
3-Jake Locker (Washington) 6-3, 226
4-Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) 6-7, 238

These are big strong QBs with very good arms. Pocket passers---and in Newton and Locker you get rare mobility to boot.

If the Cardinals draft one of them at #5...the history of the Super Bowl Winning QBs would strongly suggest that the team starts the young QB's playing clock early.

I am fine with that...

But first...let's take a close look at the propect we already have in John Skelton. Skelton's clock has already started, as he started the last 4 games. he won two of the four and won one in dramatic fashion by directing a come from behind victory versus the Cowboys on Christmas.

Skelton has Ben Roethlisberger type size (6-5, 244)...looks similarly tough in the pocket and on the move...may have an even stronger arm than Big Ben's...but at this point is still raw---understandably in that he came from a small school...but then again so did Big Ben.

What Skelton needs to work on most is his sense of timing in the offense...he needs to read the plays quicker and deliver the ball faster. We don't know yet if this is something he will always have trouble with, or whether this is something that he can improve quickly.

The fact that Skelton had not been given any reps with the first team all year when he was thrust into the starter's role...imo, makes what he was able to accomplish in 4 games even more impressive. This tells me that his ability to learn and to make adjustments is very good.

So, the question is...when you look at Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett...do you think any of them are head and shoulders more promising as an a NFL QB prospect than John Skelton?

Cam Newton is very intriguing because he has a rare combination of size, strength and wheels. Yet, there seems to be something Vince Young-esque about this kid. At times he seems to have his head in the clouds---and---he's only played one year of football at a high level. Vince Young's transition as a throwing/running college QB phenom into the NFL has been a rather difficult one.

Blaine Gabbert intrigues me because he can get rid of the ball quickly...which is the area that John Skelton needs to improve most. But Gabbert does not strike me as being anywhere near as tough physcially as Skelton is. Moreover, Gabbert's low percentages in key third down conversion situations concerns me.

Locker is a great athlete...but he's all over the place.

Mallett throws a great ball...and can throw it into tight windows...but, the questions about his character cannot be ignored, especially when you are picking #5 in the draft.

Thus, the ony two picks at #5 that make sense are Newton and Gabbert. I think there's a decent chance that they both will be taken before the Cardinals pick. I am convinced that Newton will emerge as the clear #1 pick in the draft. The buzz around him will be extraordinary---and---did you watch the clips of his media tryout? I don't care what anyone says---Trent Dilfer is right---Newton's performance was jaw-dropping, to say the least.

And I see Gabbert as a very good fit with either the Bills at #3 or the Bengals at #4. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the QBOF in Buffalo...and Carson Palmer is selling his house in Cincinnati. Maybe Gabbert will buy it. He's likely to be rich enough.

The question is...if the Cardinals are enamored with Newton and believe he's the QB they want, would they be willing to trade up to the #1 spot?

There actually is a scenario here which would cause Ron Riviera and the Panthers to consider. They do not have a 2nd round pick, having traded it to the Patriots. If the Cardinals were to offer the #5 and #38 picks and ask for the Panthers' #1 and their 4th rounder (first pick of Day 3)...the Panthers could add the 2nd rounder they need and still be able to draft one of the top defensive players (Fairley, Bowers, Dareus, Peterson, Miller or Quinn) at #5.

Are any of you high enough on Cam Newton to make that deal?

I am intrigued...I will say that.

And the fact that so many of the Super Bowl Winning QBs are 1st round picks...makes me feel all the more aware of what this year's draft could mean.

You have to have a franchise QB these days...there's no two ways around it.

Great research here Mitch. You had to spend some hours on this. I do not think the Cards trade up. It is not in their genes. Particualarly with a QB like Newton who has questions about him. I would hold my #5 and take one of the the other QBs like Gabbert as he is as likely to succeed as Newton. Any QB in the first round in any year is a gamble. It goes with the territory. I am a homer so still think that if Gabbert is gone I would look hard at Mallet. I see all these post about character. What character problems are you refering to? I think he got a DWI at some point in his career but have heard of no problems here in Arkansas. He is looked upon around here as a model of character if not a role model. This dates back to his high school days in the state. He may have problems but character is the least of them. Slow afoot but will still pull it down and run. He will be gone in the first round. I know zip about Gabbert but have read so many articles proclaiming his as the most NFL ready of any of the QBs that I would take him for my 1st at this point. That may change???? I just do not want to trade away to many draft picks. Good job now watch the Cards take a DE.

 

[Hypothesis]

I do like Kaepernick a lot. I believe his stock is going to rise in the next couple of months. He has a very strong arm and is athletic. Great name to. Sounds like one of those old school names before helments and real pads.

Ray Horton said that his defensive scheme is so complex that rookies don't get a chance to start.

People have to remeber that when you are drafting at the #5 spot that player has to be a starter from day one. You don't spend that much money on someone who is going to ride the bench.

Who in this draft is capable of starting from day one then? I really don't see any of the QBs being ready to start from day one...especially if there is a shortened offseason.

 

[WildBB]

I find it funny everyone is ready to question Mallett's character, but a lot of the same people dismiss Newton's character issues. Newton was caught at Florida with stolen property and his father admitted being involved in a pay-for-play scheme.

Most of Mallett's issues are "rumors" and according to most who know him or have closely followed his career, he has grown up a lot over the past two seasons.

IMO of the QBs at the top of the draft he has the most special skills. Newton is a nice runner, but won't be an elite running QB at the NFL level. Mallett has an amazing arm; he'll probably have the strongest arm in the NFL as a rookie. And his accuracy is vastly underrated; watch him play and you'll see him make NFL throws on a weekly that few college QBs make in their college career.

As much as I like Mallett, I don't think we have the team for a rookie QB. I'd be much more inclined to take a rookie if our offensive line was better, but IMO a rookie would struggle behind our line right now.

I'd take a gamble on Alex Smith or trade for Orton, or both. IMO Alex Smith is better than what Niner fans will tell you. Whisenhunt would work wonders with Alex Smith, he has the tools to be a very good NFL QB.

No Newton in the 1st. Wait for the 2nd round. See who shakes out. If you don't want one of them, trade for Orton.