Article on JJ's contract

Joe Mama

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There was talk while the new CBA was being negotiated that teams would be notified of the luxury tax limit about the same time they actually hear what the salary cap is going to be. Does anybody know whether that actually went through?

The Colangelos have actually said in the past that they do not intend to ever pay the luxury tax. This is not something people are coming up with out of thin air. I don't see this changing under Sarver. I could see them paying a very small penalty if they truly feel they are a top contender for a championship. It is a little bit different now because the money is distributed equally amongst all the teams rather than just the teams that were not over the luxury tax limit like in the past.

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Sanders you have gotten border-line ridiculous in your assesment of JJ. While you look at a player who "has only started for three years' (HES FREAKING 24 THIS IS'NT SOME TEN YEAR VET!!!) and hes the second option behind "Amare and Nash" ( i dunno if you realized this but Steve was at best the fourth option through out the course of the season and only in the Dallas series did he take on a more prominent role: coincidentally when JJ was out with an injury....)


It' so funny because you have this complete video game mentaltity in that you just think numbers can be replaced by other players. The bottom line is that JJ is not just some basketball card box score. The reason he is worth that money is based on his potential. That is the way guys get paid in the NBA. I read somewhere that Kwame Brown gets something like 6 and 7 million dollars a year with the two year extension he signed recently with the Lakers. And you want to get upset about paying JJ? when a guy only a year or two younger who has shown absolutly nothing in his entire career gets paid like that? The facts are what they are and you dont make money based on production, you make it over what your net worth over the contract is going to/should be. This Chaplin, is what cheesebeef is referreing too when he talks about "the kool aid"...I dont care how good you think Marion is....you have to know he has leveled off and that he is what he is now. Hes never going to be a second or third option who can take over a game offensivly.And he makes 15 million. This isn't opinion when you can say that Marions contract falls under the law of diminishing returns. You cannot pay max money to a guy who cant take over a game. JJ has shown the ability to do that AT 24!!!!! Not everyone is Lebron and comes in and dominates...Some players it takes three or four years before they finally "get it"...You sound very much like a company man and it sounds like you have taken the attitude of cutting your nose to spite your face...

There is a reason people keep bringing up quotes of JJ's perception nationally and what his value is seen there. Its because alot of NBA people realize its not that far fetched to look back a summer or two down the road and this Joe contract could have been the single biggest transaction this summer. Hes that good.....the reality is Sanders, is that Joe has not topped out as a player and you are looking at things in a very narrow perspective (like the casual fan if i had to put a term to it) Its obvious numbers are not just frozen in time and that Antoine Walkers 20.6 pts per game are just not quite as important as say JJ's 17 ppg. But by your reasoning we could just plug in toine's numbers and everything would be all good (nevermind hes a pf, thats my point, you cant duplicate joe's game with any two guard in the league. like we were arguing about earlier about Marion, No one brings the total package that joe does although some do other things well)
You want to be the voice of reason and it seems like you are trying to prepare for the inevitable of Joe moving on, but you couldnt be more diluted about the subject if you tried. I cant understand how you cans ee it as so cut and dry. Losing Joe is not just losing 17, 5 and 5 as you seem to think. Its like Toronto being upset that they lost Tracy McGrady's because of his 12 pts a game when he bolted for Orlando. The ramifications of losing Joe are so much more than numbers. Sign him and we can still use him as a tradeble asset down the road. Or we can choose to trade Marion....and looking at it realistically, that is the move that makes both more financial and basketball sense. Dont come down on cheese because he understands declining value and that Marion is our most expendable asset. Thats just a fact......
 

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In general, it is a mistake to assume that anyone who disagrees with you does so because he doesn't understand your point. I think your position is perfectly clear, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with it.

You think, based on incomplete evidence, that Johnson is a future star who will soon be worthy of a maximum deal. Others think, based on the same incomplete evidence, that he is a second-tier player whose apparent breakout last season was largely due to the Suns' system.

Who's right? Obviously no one knows for sure, or else there would be no discussion. Chris_Sanders makes a valid point that when Jim Jackson had to take over for Johnson in the starting lineup, he posted virtually the same numbers. Sly fly makes a valid point that, from time to time, Johnson shows abilities that few other players in the league have.

This much, I hope, we can agree on: Johnson has not played at a maximum-contract level yet. His numbers are decidedly unspectacular, and the main reason he didn't shoot more last season is that he's not, in general, particularly aggressive or creative with the ball. Speaking just about last season, it seems fairly clear that the Suns would have fared just as well with any of another dozen or so shooting guards in the league.

So then the only debate is whether Johnson will continue to improve. Anyone who claims to know the answer that question is blowing smoke. There's no way to be sure, which is why this decision is such a tricky one.
 

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elindholm said:
In general, it is a mistake to assume that anyone who disagrees with you does so because he doesn't understand your point. I think your position is perfectly clear, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with it.

This is why discussion boards can be fun. It would be boring if all of us had the same opinion. There doesn't have to be a winner or loser.
 

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broken down perfectly elindhom and i agree completly....but my point remains..you dont get better in the NBA by letting your valuable assets leave for nothing. And realized potential aside, Joe is a valuable asset. I just dont think its such a black and white issue as "Has Joe produced enough to warrant a maximum contract?" ..as you stated the answer is likely no.....but you make these financial decisions based on past production and what leads you to believe that they can develop even further along the life of the contract. Its not that i am coming down on those who disagree with me. Its that as a Suns fan, we cant take the role of "well let let Joe go and see where we go from there..." because that is surely a faulty line of reasoning for the future of our team..............
 

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you dont get better in the NBA by letting your valuable assets leave for nothing.

Right, but you also don't get better by giving huge contracts to mediocre players. That's the guessing game.
 

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Chris_Sanders said:
Amare led the Suns to respectability. JJ played a nice 2nd/3rd option.

Again, I don't believe "nice" players should get max contracts. I don't think Marion should be getting a max contract.


JJ may have been a 4th option last year (only one not to make the AS team) but he is clearly a solid future #2 option to Amare. Nash was great last year but he created with the threat of his offense much of the season. JJ was a go-to guy and the man that could trigger the fast break with his dribbling ability after a pass ahead by Nash.


I can't believe you would just refuse to pay him the money. I don't see how the Suns can afford to give him up even if he is overpaid right now.
 

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SirChaz said:
I can't believe you would just refuse to pay him the money. I don't see how the Suns can afford to give him up even if he is overpaid right now.

That's the rub. We can't afford to keep him, but we can't afford to let him go without adequate compensation.
 

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Arizona's Finest said:
Sanders you have gotten border-line ridiculous in your assesment of JJ. While you look at a player who "has only started for three years' (HES FREAKING 24 THIS IS'NT SOME TEN YEAR VET!!!) and hes the second option behind "Amare and Nash" ( i dunno if you realized this but Steve was at best the fourth option through out the course of the season and only in the Dallas series did he take on a more prominent role: coincidentally when JJ was out with an injury....)


It' so funny because you have this complete video game mentaltity in that you just think numbers can be replaced by other players. The bottom line is that JJ is not just some basketball card box score. The reason he is worth that money is based on his potential. That is the way guys get paid in the NBA. I read somewhere that Kwame Brown gets something like 6 and 7 million dollars a year with the two year extension he signed recently with the Lakers. And you want to get upset about paying JJ? when a guy only a year or two younger who has shown absolutly nothing in his entire career gets paid like that? The facts are what they are and you dont make money based on production, you make it over what your net worth over the contract is going to/should be. This Chaplin, is what cheesebeef is referreing too when he talks about "the kool aid"...I dont care how good you think Marion is....you have to know he has leveled off and that he is what he is now. Hes never going to be a second or third option who can take over a game offensivly.And he makes 15 million. This isn't opinion when you can say that Marions contract falls under the law of diminishing returns. You cannot pay max money to a guy who cant take over a game. JJ has shown the ability to do that AT 24!!!!! Not everyone is Lebron and comes in and dominates...Some players it takes three or four years before they finally "get it"...You sound very much like a company man and it sounds like you have taken the attitude of cutting your nose to spite your face...

There is a reason people keep bringing up quotes of JJ's perception nationally and what his value is seen there. Its because alot of NBA people realize its not that far fetched to look back a summer or two down the road and this Joe contract could have been the single biggest transaction this summer. Hes that good.....the reality is Sanders, is that Joe has not topped out as a player and you are looking at things in a very narrow perspective (like the casual fan if i had to put a term to it) Its obvious numbers are not just frozen in time and that Antoine Walkers 20.6 pts per game are just not quite as important as say JJ's 17 ppg. But by your reasoning we could just plug in toine's numbers and everything would be all good (nevermind hes a pf, thats my point, you cant duplicate joe's game with any two guard in the league. like we were arguing about earlier about Marion, No one brings the total package that joe does although some do other things well)
You want to be the voice of reason and it seems like you are trying to prepare for the inevitable of Joe moving on, but you couldnt be more diluted about the subject if you tried. I cant understand how you cans ee it as so cut and dry. Losing Joe is not just losing 17, 5 and 5 as you seem to think. Its like Toronto being upset that they lost Tracy McGrady's because of his 12 pts a game when he bolted for Orlando. The ramifications of losing Joe are so much more than numbers. Sign him and we can still use him as a tradeble asset down the road. Or we can choose to trade Marion....and looking at it realistically, that is the move that makes both more financial and basketball sense. Dont come down on cheese because he understands declining value and that Marion is our most expendable asset. Thats just a fact......

What a wonderful diatribe.

Perhaps you should go back and read again what I have written instead of having a fit in front of your computer. I say that Marion and JJ are roughly equal value to the team. Marion for the now, JJ for potential.

Neither are max players. Nor should Kwame Brown be making what he is making. If you want to understand capology, I suggest you take a long, hard look at the Spurs and Pistons, who have done an admirable job of maintaining talent and not drastically overpaying it.

We had an opportunity to do that last year and blew it. Now we have to pay the price. I will AGAIN say, for I would estimate the third time, that I like JJ and Marion...I just don't see them both on this team for more than a year.

The front office will have to choose between them. It isn't my choice, my money, or whatever. I believe any decent SG will put up good numbers in the Suns system and the facts back me up. Now you can try to belittle my position by using such tactics are "video game" (I don't own any NBA video game) or casual fan (Yeah that's why I moderate a sports board because I am such a casual fan), but I will try to avoid lowering myself to that level.
 

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Arizona's Finest said:
broken down perfectly elindhom and i agree completly....but my point remains..you dont get better in the NBA by letting your valuable assets leave for nothing. And realized potential aside, Joe is a valuable asset. I just dont think its such a black and white issue as "Has Joe produced enough to warrant a maximum contract?" ..as you stated the answer is likely no.....but you make these financial decisions based on past production and what leads you to believe that they can develop even further along the life of the contract. Its not that i am coming down on those who disagree with me. Its that as a Suns fan, we cant take the role of "well let let Joe go and see where we go from there..." because that is surely a faulty line of reasoning for the future of our team..............

It amazes me you can read all of Eric's posts and agree, but then miss that Eric and I are in complete agreement.
 

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SirChaz said:
JJ may have been a 4th option last year (only one not to make the AS team) but he is clearly a solid future #2 option to Amare. Nash was great last year but he created with the threat of his offense much of the season. JJ was a go-to guy and the man that could trigger the fast break with his dribbling ability after a pass ahead by Nash.


I can't believe you would just refuse to pay him the money. I don't see how the Suns can afford to give him up even if he is overpaid right now.

I never said I wouldn't pay him. Here is what I have said:

#1 He isn't worth a max contract, but he managed to get one out of Atlanta. This effectively means we have 1 year max with both Joe and Marion. Who is the best to trade to balance the books? Depends on your offers.

#2 If the Suns decided not to match, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Our team will be contenders as long as we have Amare.

#3 Any SG is going to have great stats in our system because our system caters to that.
 

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Chris_Sanders said:
#2 If the Suns decided not to match, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Our team will be contenders as long as we have Amare.

Like the Kevin Garnett T-wolves? No thanks. Do you know how much Garnett would probably KILL to have an emerging young stud like JJ on his team now and for all the previous years when they were 50 and out? That is my far if we don't resign JJ. You guys keep saying we can just plug anyone in there if he's gone but the question is this - how? With what money? Are really gonna get a shooting guard in here who can break guys down off the dribble, create for others, shoot a high percentage all while being arguably the most dependable health-wise on the team?

If it's an either or - and I DO believe that if they don't win the title this year that you're right it will be - Marion HAS to be the guy to go. SFs are a dime a dozen in this league - in fact, they are basically the LEAST impactful position in the game. You can decry the loss of Marion's rebounding, but we just shored that area up by signing Thomas. Add in whatever we get to replace him and you split the difference there. As far as Marion's D - it is VASTLY overrated on this board and again could be replaced rather easily. In addition to that, over the course of the next couple years Marion will peak, his athleticism will go down after that and at that point he will not be the player he is today.

I think it's a no-brainer that they resign JJ this offseason, see how the season plays out and then if we still can't get anywhere, you take a guy who puts up 20, 10 and 2 and is only 28 with a contract that will run through his prime and you level him off the books, while getting somethign back in return that can make up for him - especially considering that by that time Amare SHOULD have progressed even more than he has as should JJ.

To not resign JJ is suicide - in the present (because the moves made already this season will have ZERO impact in geting us to beat SA without JJ) and it will DOOM us to being the T-wolves in the future.

By signing JJ - you keep all your options open for both the present and the future. I believe the Suns know this - they just put together the most exciting team in the NBA in over a decade - they aren't going to turn into retards overnight. And if by some horrid chance that they do - we should resigned to the fact that we have an owner who values the bottom line over winning - I'm hoping that's not the case.
 

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Chris_Sanders said:
#3 Any SG is going to have great stats in our system because our system caters to that.

Like Casey Jacobsen? I really think that's simplistic thinking because it's more than about STATS - it's about winning - something we weren't nearly as proficient at without JJ - and that can't be denied. We were a thundering runaway train with JJ in there at the end of the season and into the playoffs. Afterwards it was struggle city. Stats can be deceiving - they aren't the end all be all.

My question is this - say we let JJ go - who are we gonna get to put in there that's going to have great stats in our system once Amare's maxed out? Even this season - is JJ - at age 35 gonna be able to play 82 games a year at the pace we play and for as many minutes as JJ played?
 

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cheesebeef said:
Like Casey Jacobsen? I really think that's simplistic thinking because it's more than about STATS - it's about winning - something we weren't nearly as proficient at without JJ - and that can't be denied. We were a thundering runaway train with JJ in there at the end of the season and into the playoffs. Afterwards it was struggle city. Stats can be deceiving - they aren't the end all be all.

My question is this - say we let JJ go - who are we gonna get to put in there that's going to have great stats in our system once Amare's maxed out? Even this season - is JJ - at age 35 gonna be able to play 82 games a year at the pace we play and for as many minutes as JJ played?

LOL okay any decent SG of say Jim Jackson level should thrive in our system.

Well our current SG would be Raja Bell is JJ goes. They hedged their bets pretty clearly. Now I believe JJ is a better player than Bell for sure, but I am not the one writing the checks.
 

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Chris_Sanders said:
#2 If the Suns decided not to match, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Our team will be contenders as long as we have Amare.

Tell that to KG.
 

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This thread is really tiring. I admit that there is one financial issue that I just dont' know the answer to: what is the maximum the Suns will pay to win a championship?

The Suns had a much bigger salary structure before the Marbury/Hardaway deal when the luxury tax was a lot lower. Maybe they lied, but the Colangelos claimed they did the deal not to save money but to have the flexibility to put together a championship team.

If the goal is simply to keep salaries down, then the Clippers have been the most successful team in the NBA for the past decade. I don't recall them making the playoffs, but they made money.

Sarver is faced with a terrible fact - fail to match for JJ and the Suns chances of winning the title are much worse than with him. If nothing else, it leaves the Suns without a backup point guard.

"But JJ isn't worth a free agent max contract"! Compared to what? Larry Hughes? Michael Redd? Cuttino Mobley? Ray Allen is a great player, but he was born in 1975 and JJ in 1981.

Ray Allen
Seattle SuperSonics
Position: G
Height: 6-5 Weight: 205
College : Connecticut '97
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 23.9
RPG 4.4
APG 3.7
SPG 1.08
BPG .06
FG% .428
FT% .883
3P% .376
MPG 39.3

Joe Johnson
Phoenix Suns
Position: G-F
Height: 6-7 Weight: 230
College : Arkansas '01
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 17.1
RPG 5.1
APG 3.5
SPG .96
BPG .29
FG% .461
FT% .750
3P% .478
MPG 39.5

The market for quality wings is very high this summer - much higher than a year ago. If JJ is going to be overpaid, so will the rest of these guys. Comparing his contract to what was negotiated in other periods by other teams under a different CBA is the height of pointlessness.

Can the Suns win without JJ? Against anyone but the Spurs I'd say "yes". Against the Spurs, the Suns need a healthy JJ a lot.

But then again, who cares if the Suns win it all? :rolleyes:
 

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elindholm said:
This thread is really tiring.

Then don't read it.

I'll only read your posts. ;)

Seriously, the tread became tiring because it is just repeating the same points over and over again.

BTW, I still haven't heard an definition as to what qualifies someone as a free agent max player. Some of the vague criteria presented seem to involve being able to make ones own shot, which JJ can do. I might make a list of criteria, but I suspect that most of the guys who got free agent max or better contracts this summer won't fit all of them.
 
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elindholm

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I'll only read your posts.

Seriously, the tread became tiring because it is just repeating the same points over and over again.


Fair enough. I try to rationalize that new people are understanding the real issues with each repetition, but I might be fooling myself.

I'm not sure what the point is of comparing Johnson to Allen. Johnson is younger and shot higher percentages last year, but his shots tended to be a lot more open that Allen's. Some people believe that Johnson "could be" an effective first-option player, but there's really no evidence to support (or refute) that, so it's all guesswork. Allen, on the other hand, has shown that he can be the go-to guy on a good team. That's worth a lot.

I don't mean to be tiring, but there's a lot more to being an elite scorer than shooting a high percentage and waiting for the coach to call your number. I'm a big believer in statistics, and I think FG% is a good one, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Otherwise, we'd be saying that Jason Terry is a top point guard or that Fred Hoiberg is among the game's best bench players.

As far as the age issue goes, I think most people would agree that Johnson will be worth more than Allen in four or five years. The problem is that the decision has to be made now.

Finally, if I haven't pushed you into unconsciousness yet, I'd like to disagree with your contention that comparing Johnson's contract to those handed out in previous summers is pointless. Building a winning team requires making intelligent salary-management decisions every step of the way. If several teams this summer are hurting their long-term chances by getting swept up in a feeding frenzy for shooting guards, that is to their disadvantage. It would hurt to lose Johnson, but how much might it hurt to keep him?
 

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What makes a FA a max type player?

When a GM decides that is the contract that they will offer them :p


Seriously, in the NBA there is no easy way to define a max player. Is it a handful of superstars? Or is it the best player on the team? Basically, it doesn't matter. Each situation is unique - if you think losing a player will hurt the franchise to much, then you pay them.

Look at Seattle and Mil. Neither Redd or Allen are max players, but the fallout from those guys being lost for nothing would have been so great that you pay them the money.

At this point we pay JJ because we can escape the salary later if we have to. Right now, Jackson could step in and play at a nice level as long as he split time with Bell. But what happens in 2 years when Jackson is gone? Do we keep filling the roll with old vets looking for a title? We certainly won't have any studs coming out of the draft with our pick area.

You sign Joe because in 2 years you will be kicking yourself while you try to find the second star to put along Amare, knowing that you let him leave for nothing just a few seasons ago.....
 

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elindholm said:
I'm a big believer in statistics, and I think FG% is a good one, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Otherwise, we'd be saying that Jason Terry is a top point guard or that Fred Hoiberg is among the game's best bench players.


Here are some other numbers for you:


Joe's overall scoring effectiveness is in the 87th percentile in the NBA, at 1.02 PPP. He is in the 80th percentile of Isolation players (.88 PPP). He is the 100th percentile of Spot up players, but that has a lot to do with the offense.


Allen's overall scoring effectiveness is in the 80th percentile. (86% ISO and 75% Spot up)

Redd's overall scoring effectiveness is in the 67th percentile. (71% ISO 97% Spot up)

Manu's overall scoring effectiveness is in the 77th percentile. (93% ISO 67% Spot Up )

(edited)Others to note:

Wade is in the 67th percentile of ISO plays
Kobe is in the 96th percentil of ISO plays
Iverson is in the 79th percentile of ISO plays
Lebron is in the 65th percentile of ISO plays
Tmac is in the 91st percentile of ISO plays


You can figure that Joe's overall effectiveness is boosted by his Spot ups which are a product of the offense. However, his ISO percentile gives a pretty accurate depiction of how his ability to create compares to rest of the league.

You can try to say that defenses are geared to the other players more, but I think that is a fallacy in the context of the numbers. Joe usually gets the best perimeter defender on him as does everyone else on this list. When in the ISO situation, the defense will always adjust to focus on that player (while watching the others still).
 
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elindholm

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Thanks a lot for those stats. They are very interesting.

So Johnson's ISO percentile is below Bryant, Ginobili, McGrady, and Allen, but ahead of the others. That doesn't surprise me too much.

Who is at the very top of the ISO list?
 

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elindholm said:
Who is at the very top of the ISO list?


I don't actually have an easy way to do that, but I'll look through the major people to see if I can find them.

The big thing that I wanted to show with the numbers is that while Joe isn't a top tier creator right now, he is well above average. Some people have sold him short on his ability to get his own shot, when he is actually more effective than Lebron and Wade right now.

The biggest thing to realize with these numbers is that they do not represent the ability to get to the basket, but the scoring efficiency of the player when they are in the ISO situation. So high frequency players like Iverson are hurt a little because they take so many attempts.
 

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thegrahamcrackr said:
You can figure that Joe's overall effectiveness is boosted by his Spot ups which are a product of the offense. However, his ISO percentile gives a pretty accurate depiction of how his ability to create compares to rest of the league.

You can try to say that defenses are geared to the other players more, but I think that is a fallacy in the context of the numbers. Joe usually gets the best perimeter defender on him as does everyone else on this list. When in the ISO situation, the defense will always adjust to focus on that player (while watching the others still).

From watching the games with my own eyes, I gotta say this favorable stats for Joe must be flawed as Wade, LeBron, Iverson are 10 times better ISO players Joe is and ever will be. There is an explanation. Joe was the 3rd or 4th option on our team, he normally only goes into ISO plays when the matchup was favorable enough, for his own and the team's good. Since we have so many options, if it didn't feel like his day to go ISO against even favorable matchups, we just go back to Amare-Nash.

Also, I recall vividly how often we fans are frustrated by Joe's ISO plays in most regular season games. He never passed to Amare. He 95% settles for an 18 feet jumpers after using the pick, instead of going strong to the hoop. We lost our regular season home game vs the Spurs partly due to his inability to get into a low post position to take advantage of his size over Manu, while being brutally abused on the other end.

Anyway, from stats, he might not far off worth a max contract but from wathcing his game, he has a lot to prove still, compared to guys like Ray Allen and even Pierce, as a proficient go-to scorer.
 

Joe Mama

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thegrahamcrackr said:
I don't actually have an easy way to do that, but I'll look through the major people to see if I can find them.

The big thing that I wanted to show with the numbers is that while Joe isn't a top tier creator right now, he is well above average. Some people have sold him short on his ability to get his own shot, when he is actually more effective than Lebron and Wade right now.

The biggest thing to realize with these numbers is that they do not represent the ability to get to the basket, but the scoring efficiency of the player when they are in the ISO situation. So high frequency players like Iverson are hurt a little because they take so many attempts.

the other thing those statistics don't take into account is who was defending the players and whether there was help defense. It only shows double teams if the player passes the ball, and that pass leads directly to a shot attempt or turnover.

it's probably fair to compare guys like Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, and LeBron James because they are the prime focus of opposing defenses. JJ was not for the most part. Sure, there were times when JJ was defended by the other team's best defensive player. I'm sure there were times where he saw double teams. I guarantee it wasn't nearly as frequently as these of the guys saw that kind of defensive attention.

Almost every one of those players would look amazing and the Phoenix Suns system even though they would still probably get more defensive attention JJ saw last season. I think the Phoenix Suns should match the offer. I'll be disappointed if they don't because keeping him gives them the best shot at a championship next year. I don't think anybody's going to convince me there will be a $10- 11 million drop off in performance if he's gone though, especially if they can get anything reasonable and a sign and trade or if they could get Michael Finley.

I wish something we just happen already. I wouldn't want to urge to get bored reading all these repetitive posts.

Joe Mama
 
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