Article on JJ's contract

cly2tw

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Chris Sanders put it at the start of the thread but apparently it has not sunk in with everybody yet: The Suns SYSTEM's only core is the Amare-Nash duo.

With this, any decent swingmen combination that supply sufficient athletics and 3-pt shooting with adequate defense would make that system work. In this sense, losing JJ without compensation makes the task tougher but not hopeless. Say, we don't match for JJ, but trade Marion + right to Vujanic and next year's 1st rounder to Celtics for Pierce. Get Hunter back for 1.7mil. Pick up Finley and Grant to min after their waiver, and Travis Best for min. Our team would be:

Amare/KT/Pierce/Finley/Nash
Hunter/Grant/Jake/JimJ/Bell/Barbosa/Best

I think this is already much better than last year's lineup. Pierce is way better go-to scorer than Joe. Finley/Bell are about the same efficient 3pt shooter as Joe. This lineup will have a solid chance to beat the Spurs as we have now 3 great one-on-one scorers in Amare/Pierce/Nash to match theirs of Duncan/Manu/Parker. If we could convince Atlanta to do a s-n-t for Joe. Say a 3-way with Orlando with J.Smith, Cato, Diener to the Suns, Diaw and Jake + cash to Orlando. Our bench would be even stronger with a youn talent in JS on it:

Cato/Hunter/Grant/J.Smith/JimJ/Bell/Barbosa/Best

If you feel the pressure now that we are not gonna keep the same team that was successful last year, you might want to warm up to the idea that with the absolute core, Amare-Nash, still in place, the options to improve the team with adequate financial accountability are endless.
 

George O'Brien

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This is actually "new" stuff and more importantly, it attempts to quantify observations. I'm not sure I understand the methodology well enough to determine how accurate it is, but at least there is substance. :notworthy

In another thread, there were rumors that JJ was frustrated with the way the offense was run and he wanted to be a bigger part of it. I made the argument that Q and Marion shot too many outside shots and more effort should have been made to get the ball to JJ and Amare. I not only recommend that this happen, I think there is a good chance it will happen.

Can JJ handle the added responsibility of being one of the top two options on offense? The playoffs suggested that the answer MIGHT be yes. To make that work, he would need to develop a better connection with Amare. In addition to learning to run the pick and roll, they should develop an inside out two man game. With JJ's ability to hit the short jumper, he should be drawing defenders from Amare for easy assists.
 

elindholm

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There is not a chance in hell that Atlanta will give up Smith in a sign-and-trade.

Other than that, good post. :p
 

cly2tw

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elindholm said:
There is not a chance in hell that Atlanta will give up Smith in a sign-and-trade.

Other than that, good post. :p

In that case, I'd settle for Childress + a future first-rounder instead of Smith. ;) KMart got Nets 3 1st-rounders with everybody being aware that Nets were bluffing, while the Suns indeed is best served to match the offer. That ought to bring more. Besides, if they add Curry, JJ's more laidback game would serve their team really well. And they'd still have tons of cap to sign other FAs who now would love to play with JJ, making them instant contender. For all those value of getting JJ, I'd consider even trading JoshSmith who is of similar type of player with Marvin Williams anyway. ;)
 
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JS22

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cly2tw said:
Chris Sanders put it at the start of the thread but apparently it has not sunk in with everybody yet: The Suns SYSTEM's only core is the Amare-Nash duo.

With this, any decent swingmen combination that supply sufficient athletics and 3-pt shooting with adequate defense would make that system work. In this sense, losing JJ without compensation makes the task tougher but not hopeless. Say, we don't match for JJ, but trade Marion + right to Vujanic and next year's 1st rounder to Celtics for Pierce. Get Hunter back for 1.7mil. Pick up Finley and Grant to min after their waiver, and Travis Best for min. Our team would be:

Amare/KT/Pierce/Finley/Nash
Hunter/Grant/Jake/JimJ/Bell/Barbosa/Best

I think this is already much better than last year's lineup. Pierce is way better go-to scorer than Joe. Finley/Bell are about the same efficient 3pt shooter as Joe. This lineup will have a solid chance to beat the Spurs as we have now 3 great one-on-one scorers in Amare/Pierce/Nash to match theirs of Duncan/Manu/Parker. If we could convince Atlanta to do a s-n-t for Joe. Say a 3-way with Orlando with J.Smith, Cato, Diener to the Suns, Diaw and Jake + cash to Orlando. Our bench would be even stronger with a youn talent in JS on it:

Cato/Hunter/Grant/J.Smith/JimJ/Bell/Barbosa/Best

If you feel the pressure now that we are not gonna keep the same team that was successful last year, you might want to warm up to the idea that with the absolute core, Amare-Nash, still in place, the options to improve the team with adequate financial accountability are endless.


I understand your point, but this just mirrors what the Suns do EVERY year:

Tear it up and rebuild. :bang:

Just sign Johnson, make a run for it next year, and worry about it when Amare's new contract kicks in. That is, unless Sarver is cheap.
 

cly2tw

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WastedFate said:
I understand your point, but this just mirrors what the Suns do EVERY year:

Tear it up and rebuild. :bang:

Just sign Johnson, make a run for it next year, and worry about it when Amare's new contract kicks in. That is, unless Sarver is cheap.

Cool. This is one of the options I was referring to. :D
The argument against it is that, then, Marion's trade value might go down considerably. Apropos trading Marion, if we match Joe's offer, the rumored Knicks trade for TimThomas is definitely not good enough. We need bigs. So, another 3-way with Magic might be considered: Suns get Ariza, Sweetney (or a 1st-rounder from NY) Cato, Christie; Orlando gets TimThomas, a 2nd-rounder from NY, right to Vujanic; NY gets Marion, Jake. Both TT and Cato are MLE level players, overpaid, but Orlando could use a good 3/4 type scorer and can do without Cato now they drafted a PF. Christie is a throw-in.
 

elindholm

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Actually Tim Thomas is on an enormous contract, getting paid $14 million next season. No way Orlando does that deal. They aren't that desperate to get rid of Cato and Christie, both of whom have expiring contracts themselves.
 

cly2tw

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elindholm said:
Actually Tim Thomas is on an enormous contract, getting paid $14 million next season. No way Orlando does that deal. They aren't that desperate to get rid of Cato and Christie, both of whom have expiring contracts themselves.

Christie is disgruntled I read and being paid over 8mil. TimT is supposed in the last year of his contract. Cato at 8mil is over paid too. So, regarding overpayment for the talent it's a wash. Actually, Magic already save 2-3mil on this deal alone. It's about whether TimThomas might be better fit than Cato or not and whether 2 2nd-rounders, plus maybe cash, may sway their preference a little.
 

thegrahamcrackr

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About the stats again:

From watching the games with my own eyes, I gotta say this favorable stats for Joe must be flawed as Wade, LeBron, Iverson are 10 times better ISO players Joe is and ever will be. There is an explanation. Joe was the 3rd or 4th option on our team, he normally only goes into ISO plays when the matchup was favorable enough, for his own and the team's good. Since we have so many options, if it didn't feel like his day to go ISO against even favorable matchups, we just go back to Amare-Nash.

This is true. Joe runs isolation plays as his 3rd option IIRC, behind pick and rolls and spot ups. It isn't necessarily the individual matchup he looks for in my opinion, he just picks his poison.

Players like Wade and Lebron are hurt because Isolations are such a large part of their game as well as the team offense. Those numbers are based on an overall effeciency, not on production. Players that take more shots in any kind of offense will typically have a let down. That is part of the reason why Hoiberg led the league in 3 pt %, he had very few attempts compared to the other leaders.

However, Joe's numbers are still a barometer of what he is capable of. While I probably reached saying he was a more effective creator than Lebron and Wade (although Wade gets a lot of his points off of pick and roll, where he is very effective - almost 1PPP) he isn't as far off as people like to think.

the other thing those statistics don't take into account is who was defending the players and whether there was help defense. It only shows double teams if the player passes the ball, and that pass leads directly to a shot attempt or turnover.

I am pretty sure Joe gets the same defender that all of those other guys get. It just makes sense. The only time the other teams top perimeter defender wasn't on Joe was when Bowen was on Marion in the WCF that I can remember. There may be a few other instances, but not many.

You are right about the double team, but almost all players pass out of a double team anyways. At least at a high enough percentage that it should affect the effeciency that much. If they don't know to pass out of the double team in an isolation play, then their numbers should take the hit since that is almost always a bad decision (and subsequently a part of how efficient you are at ISOs).

Now the double team isssue plays a bigger role in post moves because it is more frequent to score over doubles (at least for a couple players). I don't think the ISO numbers take a big hit though.

Also, I recall vividly how often we fans are frustrated by Joe's ISO plays in most regular season games. He never passed to Amare. He 95% settles for an 18 feet jumpers after using the pick, instead of going strong to the hoop. We lost our regular season home game vs the Spurs partly due to his inability to get into a low post position to take advantage of his size over Manu, while being brutally abused on the other end.

Plays like this are logged into another catagory (pick and rolls). Joe is a decent pick and roll player at best , at 64th percentile IIRC.
 

George O'Brien

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Scotty Pippen was the second option on the Bulls and he still was still selected as part of the only true Dream Team and was selected to the "Greatest 50 Players of All Time" list in 1997. I see JJ emerging as a Scotty Pippen to Amare's Jordan.
 

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George O'Brien said:
Scotty Pippen was the second option on the Bulls and he still was still selected as part of the only true Dream Team and was selected to the "Greatest 50 Players of All Time" list in 1997. I see JJ emerging as a Scotty Pippen to Amare's Jordan.


That is what I am talking about. :koolaid:

Just keep JJ and Amare and build around those two. Marion is a great luxury(a highly paid, energetic, role player) and Nash is a great mentor and distributor but Johnson and Stoudemire are the future of the Suns.
 

Cheesebeef

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SirChaz said:
That is what I am talking about. :koolaid:

Just keep JJ and Amare and build around those two. Marion is a great luxury(a highly paid, energetic, role player) and Nash is a great mentor and distributor but Johnson and Stoudemire are the future of the Suns.

totally agree. You've got the boisterous outspoken dominator down low and the silent assassin on the wing - go with what we've got for the next couple years and then build around those guys and we're looking at a 10 year run where we are contenders EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
 

elindholm

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Come on man, Joe Johnson is pretty damn good, but he's no Pippen.

That's just because you're a hater.
 

Chaz

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SirStefan32 said:
Come on man, Joe Johnson is pretty damn good, but he's no Pippen.


Nobody said he was Pippen.


Nobody said Amare was Jordan. :)


I think we have just scratched the surface with both of these players.

No telling what they can accomplish.
 

George O'Brien

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My point was not that JJ is as good as Pippen, though I'm not sure he might not someday make that level, but that being second option is not that bad if the team is good enough.
 
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