All right, I have to come out of hiding for this.
Tim Thomas would have been a fine signing at $21 million over four years, or even for the $24 million that the Clippers gave him.
Yes, his attitude is questionable, he doesn't make much effort on the boards, and he's a mediocre defender at best. But that's why he's not worth more than the MLE.
Every option that has been brought up since Thomas left has major problems. They're always injured, or they can't shoot, or they're awful defensively, or they already have one foot out the retirement door. That's another reason Thomas was worth the MLE. Cheaper players, by and large, suck.
The Suns lucked out big time with Raja Bell last summer. He took slightly less than the MLE and turned out to be a very good starting SG. Does anyone think that he would take the MLE now, after what he showed this past season? He'd probably be able to command a starting salary of $7 million from a team with cap space.
The Suns say their top eight are set, huh? I guess that has to include James Jones. I like Jones, but anyone who watched these recent playoffs knows that he would not even have gotten off the bench had Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas been able to contribute. He was simply outclassed. The Suns used him in desperation, and he did what he could, but it wasn't much. Now he's a lock for the top eight? And remember, it's "top eight" only if everyone stays healthy.
Thomas, had he taken $21/4, would have made about $2 million more per year than Jones. Knock Thomas's effort all you like, but he's a huge upgrade over Jones. If the Suns are really that worried about every penny, don't you think they could have packaged Jones with one of their picks to a team with cap space?
I can tell you where we're all going to be a year from now. We'll be lamenting a loss in the second or third round of the playoffs, blaming it on the bad luck of an injury or one key player hitting a slump. Serious contenders don't go into the season saying, "If everything goes exactly perfectly, we have a pretty good chance." They plan for other contingencies.
By this point, it's clear that none of the roster fill-outs are going to be impact players. All of you that have been asking to see what last year's roster could have done, you have your wish -- last year's roster is exactly what they're going to have.
I'm sure this next point will make me very unpopular, but too bad: Marion's contract is killing the Suns. Except for teams with infinite payrolls, a championship rotation is made up of these kinds of players:
1. Stars on big contracts
2. Role players on affordable contracts
3. "Bargain" players who are either youngsters still on their cheap rookie deals, veterans playing for cheap to chase the dream, or diamonds in the rough who step up unexpectedly
Categories (2) and (3) are critical. In (2), the Suns have only Bell and Jones (unless you want to call Kurt Thomas's contract "affordable"). In (3), they have Diaw and Barbosa -- and no one else, since they don't add rookies to the roster anymore. Maybe they hoped that the old "join us for a championship" sell would lure some solid veterans, but that hasn't happened.
So it all comes down to their group (1). The Suns' big three will combine for about $38 million next year. The Heat's big three, by salary (O'Neal, Williams, and Walker) combine for only $36 million -- and they have Wade, still on his rookie deal. For San Antonio (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili), it's also $36 million. Dallas, if you ignore Finley, has Nowitzki, Dampier, and Stackhouse combining for $32 million (and they have infinite money anyway). We can't look at Detroit right now, because we don't know what's going on with them.
So among the likely contenders, the Suns are paying the most for their three biggest contracts. The franchise is financially handicapped, and it's starting to show.
Marion makes more money than any player on those top teams, other than Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan. He makes more than Nowitzki, Elton Brand, or anyone on the Pistons. (He makes more than Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton combined.) Some on this board are fond of saying that the money doesn't matter to us fans. Well, when it has a direct impact on the team's ability to prepare for a championship run, I think it matters.
Imagine if Marion was making a few million dollars per year less, more in line with his status as the third (or fourth) best player on a contending team. The Suns could have rolled the dice with Tim Thomas and not been paralyzed with fear about getting stuck behind his "big" contract. They could have kept one of their first-round picks, just in case they were wrong about how good a player he might become. (It's been known to happen.) They could be more of a player right now with the low-level free agents still looking for homes, instead of settling for a joke like Eric Piatkowski. They could try to bribe a player over from Europe -- think D'Antoni might know of any?
Instead, they're completely stuck. The reason they aren't making any real moves is because they can't afford to. And anyone who thinks they're going to add three rookies next summer is dreaming, because the problem is only going to get worse with the extensions to Diaw and possibly Barbosa.
D'Antoni says he can't imagine the Suns winning a championship without Marion on the roster. That's sweet. Unfortunately, I say the opposite. I can't see them winning a title as long as he's here. He's a great guy, plays hard, and brings a lot to the floor. But he simply makes way too much money to be a third or fourth option. That's becoming clearer by the day, and for those of you who don't see that yet, you might as well start coming up with your other excuses for why the Suns will fail again this year.
