Cardinals trade pick #23 for Hollywood Brown

[slanidrac16]

After sleeping on it I lean toward the good.
I’ve been banging the drum for more speed on offense. It checks that box.
I’m not going to worry about his contract, next year or 2 years from now. If he helps this offense explode we’ll work it out.
I wish he was 5 inches taller but if he used the right way it won’t matter.
Kirk making 18m this year alone makes this trade a value.

What will push this trade into the deep green is what we do with our next 3 picks. If we could figure out a way to get rb like Walker or Hall and an Edge rusher like Paschal I’d be ecstatic.

 

[Garthshort]

I read that Brown had 21 tds in three years in a run heavy offense. Not sure how many Kirk had. Perhaps someone knows.

 

[kerouac9]

Maybe so, but any new money would kick in after his 5th year option. I'm sure they will work out an extension next offseason but they have the luxury of making sure the move works out first.

That's not entirely true. He'd get some new money up front in the form of signing and roster bonuses, but the real money would come after the 5th year option.

You could kick a lot of money into the later years of the deal, but I agree it's a risk to do that until at least mid-year when you see how he'll fit into the system.

DeAndre Hopkins has $0 guaranteed salary after this season. He has a $30 million cap number in 2023. Interesting.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

I read that Brown had 21 tds in three years in a run heavy offense. Not sure how many Kirk had. Perhaps someone knows.

In his four years with the Cards, Kirk only had 17 TDs.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

I read that Brown had 21 tds in three years in a run heavy offense. Not sure how many Kirk had. Perhaps someone knows.

17 TDs in 4 years of a pass happy offense.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Any wide receiver that's 24 years old with 21 TDs, who's going to cost $15m the next 2 years and who just had a 1000 yard season is always going to cost a 1st round pick.

He was drafted 25th overall and we gave up the 23rd overall for him and received the 100th overall in return. Great deal, IMHO.

 

[PDXChris]

17 TDs in 4 years of a pass happy offense.

He dropped at least two for sure TDs last season too. For every crazy catch, he seemed to have 2 easy drops.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'd guess if you looked at it his whiff rate is no different to most GM's. WR's whiff a lot.

Look at the 2020 draft.

Ruggs, Jeudy, Raegor, Aiyuk, Shenault, Hamler, Van Jefferson, Mims. That's 8 of the first 13 receivers off the board in 2020 all under performed where they were drafted.

Yep most of those are meh. I remember the hype Jefferson and Mims got as second rounders. Mims might be cut this off-season, and Van Jefferson is a league average receiver.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Just waiting for the news that Brown is switching to KM's agent and both will threaten to hold out until they're given new deals. All joking aside...the price was a little steep, but he's a proven commodity and exactly what this offense needs. Also, you don't have to rip your hair out over the inevitable bust that Keim was going to draft with that pick, so it's a win-win. KK has all the tools in the shed now, so it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with!

 

[Krangodnzr]

Oh Steve, don't go throwing away all the credit people are giving you lol

The trade was in the works for days, so this showed he forecasted what was going to happen and he had a solid plan.

I was laughing at some of the comments that Chris Olave was going to be available...the Cardinals didn't even get a shot at Dotson!

At 23 the Cardinals were looking to take guys like Christian Watson or Alec Pierce. I'm not totally comfortable with that even though I like their upside.

As much as I pan Keim's drafting ability he is good at making trades. How is this trade going to look when Brown becomes the Cardinals #1 WR and makes a few Pro Bowls? That's not a prediction per se, but if it does happen (and there is a likelihood it could) this is a beyond awful trade for Baltimore.

 

[SoonerLou]

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He dropped at least two for sure TDs last season too. For every crazy catch, he seemed to have 2 easy drops.

TBF Hollywood dropped about 4 tds last year

 

[kerouac9]

I read that Brown had 21 tds in three years in a run heavy offense. Not sure how many Kirk had. Perhaps someone knows.

In his four years with the Cards, Kirk only had 17 TDs.

17 TDs in 4 years of a pass happy offense.

This is a pretty thirsty metric considering that Kirk was always the #2 option, especially in the red zone and earlier in his career, and Brown had 50% more targets than Kirk did last year.

When they both had about 100 targets, Brown had 770 yards and 8 TDs as the focal point of an MVP quarterback's passing attack (Willie Snead had half as many targets). Kirk had 982 yards and 5 TDs in a much more diversified passing attack that mostly rushed for TDs in the red zone.

This was a good trade; the 2022 Arizona passing offense is not as behind the 2021 version as we were yesterday, but Marquise Brown has never been better than 42nd in DYAR and that was in his rookie season.

 

[SoonerLou]

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[Krangodnzr]

From the Ravens

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta says Hollywood Brown wanted out of Baltimore; new Cardinals WR was at team draft party

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta says Hollywood Brown wanted out of Baltimore; new Cardinals WR was at team draft party

Brown didn't want to be in Baltimore any longer

www.cbssports.com

"Marquise came to me after the season and requested that he be traded and was not happy and wanted to play elsewhere," DeCosta said. "Again, it was something that I anguished over for a long time. I always say the club has to win, and this was a situation where it was going to be impossible for the club to truly win, but we do what we think is best for the player. We try to accommodate players when we can. I'm sensitive to that, so we did it."

DeCosta basically said they didn't win this trade.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

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TBF Hollywood dropped about 4 tds last year

Dude is definitely winning me over with his words. I'm excited to see if his play continues to rise.

 

[SoonerLou]

Dude is definitely winning me over with his words. I'm excited to see if his play continues to rise.

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If he's the guy from OU (and it really is that he just needed a change of scenery) then its a home run.

Time will tell.

 

[Krangodnzr]

This is nonsense. Brown had 146 targets last season and 100 the season before that. For comparison, Christian Kirk had 103 targets last season and was more productive than Brown with the same amount of targets (albeit in a different offense).

If Brown represents an upgrade from Kirk, it's only a mild one, in all probability.


We've talked about this before, but I'm 100% sure the lack of motion and moving players around within the formation is a function of Kyler Murray's preferences and not the coaching staff's system. Everyone seems to understand that play action and motion are cheat codes in the NFL, but that level of complexity takes away from the time that Kyler can be playing Fortnite so sorry not sorry.

The question is: is Kyler Murray a better passer than Lamar and his backup? You don't think that has a significant effect? I think it does.

You can't exactly compare Kirk and Brown without exploring this variable.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Something else interesting is that move actually saves us $1 million in cap space this year. His cap hit is $2.1 million and the 23rd pick will be about $3.2 million this year.

That's interesting

 

[SoonerLou]

I gotta think the Ravens were banking on Jameson Williams being there at 14. Shocked they didn't move up to 12 to get him.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Just waiting for the news that Brown is switching to KM's agent and both will threaten to hold out until they're given new deals. All joking aside...the price was a little steep, but he's a proven commodity and exactly what this offense needs. Also, you don't have to rip your hair out over the inevitable bust that Keim was going to draft with that pick, so it's a win-win. KK has all the tools in the shed now, so it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with!

This trade demonstrates that the Cardinals (rightfully) were concerned about wide receiver. At 23, most of the top guys were long gone, so this trade looks even better.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I like the trade even more looking at the progression Brown has made every year of his career, all numbers ascending each season. That’s what you want to see from young talent. Hopefully that trend continues in an offense that has a solid amount of weapons around him.

 

[SoonerLou]

The question is: is Kyler Murray a better passer than Lamar and his backup? You don't think that has a significant effect? I think it does.

You can't exactly compare Kirk and Brown without exploring this variable.

While Kyler is the better passer/better fit. Lamar was actually more aggressive last season and before injuries set it they were a bombs away team.

Cris Carter was on TV saying whats holding the Ravens back is that their rookie Batemen is still just a rookie. He was more of a pure #1 WR but still needs development and Hollywood as a #1 has its limitations. As he was clearly just a #2.

I love the deal more I think about it. However, as with Kirk. Its really contingent on Deandre Hopkins staying healthy. Good health and the team should be fine.

 

[Ronin]

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[kerouac9]

The question is: is Kyler Murray a better passer than Lamar and his backup? You don't think that has a significant effect? I think it does.

You can't exactly compare Kirk and Brown without exploring this variable.

I don't think it has as significant an impact on counting stats as 50% more targets does. You make up a lot of the difference in volume. That's why Brown's advanced stats are so unimpressive. I imagine is subjective grades are also bad, or people would be posting PFF stuff for him on here.

If you're someone who wanted the Cards to get Brandin Cooks, you're likely going to love this trade. I'm fine with it; I agree with the analysis that the Cards used their first round pick to get arguably the best receiver available in this draft.

I just think people are getting carried away with how good Brown can and will be in this offense. Especially when you consider that the Cards probably just clapped a ceiling on their 2021 second-round pick.

 

[kerouac9]

I like the trade even more looking at the progression Brown has made every year of his career, all numbers ascending each season. That’s what you want to see from young talent. Hopefully that trend continues in an offense that has a solid amount of weapons around him.

His QB rating when targeted went down every season. You're seeing counting stats hide a lot of questionable production:

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