Pure rhetoric from the owners to lower the cost of free agent deals this year and next year. They are finding it very hard to negotiate with agents for long term deals because they either don't want to sign long term more then 2 years, or if they do sign long term they want a big raise in years 3,4,5 and so on. Owners are hating free agency right now.
The NFL will have told the NFLPA a bold face lie during the new CBA negotiations if this were true. A lie that the NFLPA would have known about by simply letting their accountants look at the numbers.
You notice how this info is just now coming out to light as the Owners Meetings were about to start, it isn't just a coincidence.
I'd say yes and no. Part of this is the payoff of the last negotiations. Players had to give something up, and what they gave up was a slower increase somewhere during the window. Rather than put it on the back end, Owners want to put it on the front end, because it means owners 'bent the cost curve' causing all subsequent years to come from a lower base, and want the pain to be now so the owners can pocket the difference from the beginning rather than at the end. Salary cap is not necessarily what is spent, though the minimum salary clause will help mitigate some fears.
I also see it as blowback from what has been happening. Remember all the 'guarantees' were supposed to be guarantees. But owners and front offices started using all the roster bonuses early on, like Kolb, as opportunities to ditch players, and they have. Because of this, agents have been asking for more salary and less or smaller such bonuses. They'd rather have it upfront, or higher salaries throughout. It is the differential from one year to the next that is driving many of these decisions, or making them easier and more justified when a free agent doesn't pan out as expected. (also dead cap space can have influence keeping actual paid salaries lower in subsequent years, and even perhaps lower than the minimum if teams are at or near the minimum but have dead cap space. )
I would say it's coming out like you said because the owners are driving this and the realities that somewhere along the line the hit has to be taken. Now or later. Players benefit (if hit taken later) by virtue of slower increases at a much higher level (and thus the decreases aren't as big of a percentage) so subsequently the cap would move higher faster and the players under contract are more likely to be paid, and more players would get that money now instead of future players later. Obviously by bending the curve and paying out the average of 3.1 billion later they keep more money for themselves (but at what interest rate...it seems negligible).
I'd say it's probably always been the owners position, nothing new. Just the best journalists in all of news -sports reporters- are still deaf, dumb, blind, stupid, and then some. Thus they've only found out about it, or managed to get confirmation now.
I agree it is entirely a power play, one way or the other, and there probably will be a compromise. But I still figure that the next couple of years we will continue to see smaller increases than expected, and the increases and roster bonuses built in under anticipation of a big increase will start to hit, leaving teams with less to spend on FA, and more people getting cut...compounded with a shift by the agents to utilize roster bonuses less in favor of the more traditional and cap eating ways of pure bonus and higher salary but more steady year after year....which will have an impact.
(on this last point I mean higher outlays in the initial years at the same time the increases of past years contracts hit during a relatively flat or smaller cap increase than expected)
It is a power play, but one at this point the owners have leverage, so while I fully expect them to have increases, it's not going to be what the players and agents thought the first couple of years.
It seems as though it's about a 60 percent increase in average through 2022, but that doesn't mean it's going to be 6 percent per (for simplicity sake). I wouldn't be surprised at a 2-3 percent the first couple of years, then more like 7 or so the remaining years. Couple that with inflation pressures outstripping the increase, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a strike in a few years. Even with the exorbitant increases the past 15 years in salary, they've still lost purchasing power to inflation, and in a few years it might get testy. Owners are satisfied with the labor deal, but it's the players that have to live through it on an individual basis. I'm not saying there will be, especially given the blowback by the public hating both sides of the past debate, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they did strike at some point.
It's tough to analyze because the NFL might be doing the best thing possible long term, 2-3 increases now, then more later...as by then inflation will be rampant (hell it already is), and they can say...we're giving you 7-8-9 percent increases...rather than just 6 per. It is quite an interesting situation. How the NFL and other sports owners/players navigate the economic hell coming (let alone present). If they just did a straight increase of 6 per, as inflation ramps up, there will be less cushion to absorb it through higher salaries. It is all just a game, a really idiotic one, but owners/players-agents love to play them, and the pressures ahead will be much higher than have been faced by sports leagues in modern times.
The average of 3.1 billion can be arrived at many ways. I also used the shortcut, as it is impossible to know how they are actually going to increase it...as the average of 3.1 billion after 10 years, will mean that in the last few years the cap will be significantly higher than the number an average of 3.1 billion is. Another interesting aspect would be the impact of expansion. Smaller increases, but an additional team or two is another way they could keep the cap number down but reach the average goal. It's just impossible to know how all these will factor in. But now that the owners have the players agreed to those numbers, the owners are going to do their best to mete it out in a way that's most beneficial to them.
At least that is my pure speculative guesstimate given incomplete information.