Does Keim Have The Guts to Trade Up In the First Round?

[Buckybird]

That’s not even close to a realistic offer


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Says you!

I’ve slready stated this once, Keim needs to sell that’s he’s likely selling off a top 10 pick next seasons & probably higher.

According to the draft chart, the donkeys come out of this trade over 400 points ahead & that’s based off of next years one being #15 like this which won’t happen.

I originally had a 3rd on it but removed it thinking we could swing this deal. I think think the deal could get made regardless of what you do. I think everyone here is going overboard with the price but we shall see.

 

[WildBB]

Says you!

I’ve slready stated this once, Keim needs to sell that’s he’s likely selling off a top 10 pick next seasons & probably higher.

According to the draft chart, the donkeys come out of this trade over 400 points ahead & that’s based off of next years one being #15 like this which won’t happen.

I originally had a 3rd on it but removed it thinking we could swing this deal. I think think the deal could get made regardless of what you do. I think everyone here is going overboard with the price but we shall see.

They're not gonna trade into the top 5. Maybe at 8 or 10. Only if Mayfield is there, imo.

 

[PJ1]

They're not gonna trade into the top 5. Maybe at 8 or 10. Only if Mayfield is there, imo.

Agreed and if Mayfield is still there they will have competition moving up.

 

[juza76]

Trading up in the top 5 will affect negativily our future
There is not much difference on paper among the first 6 qb'.s

 

[GimmedaBall]

Thanks to those who stated their preference and how much draft capital they would be willing to spend:

azcardsfan1616: Rosen, 2 1st, 2 2nd, next years 3rd and 5th

Gatoraz: Mayfield at #2, for Peterson, #15, #45, 2019 1st

Jetstream Green, Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade. (Edit:Two firsts, one second and one fourth for Mayfield)

Buckybird: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold in Denver’s #5 spot: trade Two 1s and One 2

Stout: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield in that order. Trade with Cleveland for the 1st overall pick, 3 #1s, 3 #2s, and a 3rd. (If you are trading to the 1st overall pick, get your choice of QBs so I’ll put Stout down for Darnold).

WildBB: Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade. (Edit: later provided #15, #47 and #97 this year for #8. Maybe add a 3rd next year.)

6 responses from those who have been advocating a trade up. Of course, the question itself may be getting lost in the thread—others have stated their preference elsewhere but I will not count them until they state here.

So far, (first choice only): 1 vote for Rosen, 4 votes for Mayfield, 1 vote for Darnold.

I haven't done the calculation on all the trades based on the 'Draft Value Chart' At first glance, it appears we have some who think it will be a bargain basement trade in favor of the Cards to move up----need to go back and AT MINIMUM calculate the point value to move up. The price to move up in this market will surely be much higher than the minimum.

Come draft day, there will no doubt be trades in every direction as QB hungry teams go after ‘their guy’ I’m curious to see how close the forum members were able to evaluate both target player and draft value if SK does make a move up for a QB.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Thanks to those who stated their preference and how much draft capital they would be willing to spend:

azcardsfan1616: Rosen, 2 1st, 2 2nd, next years 3rd and 5th

Gatoraz: Mayfield at #2, for Peterson, #15, #45, 2019 1st

Jetstream Green, Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade.

Buckybird: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold in Denver’s #5 spot: trade Two 1s and One 2

Stout: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield in that order. Trade with Cleveland for the 1st overall pick, 3 #1s, 3 #2s, and a 3rd. (If you are trading to the 1st overall pick, get your choice of QBs so I’ll put Stout down for Darnold).

WildBB: Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade.

6 responses from those who have been advocating a trade up. Of course, the question itself may be getting lost in the thread—others have stated their preference elsewhere but I will not count them until they state here.

So far, (first choice only): 1 vote for Rosen, 4 votes for Mayfield, 1 vote for Darnold.

I haven't done the calculation on all the trades based on the 'Draft Value Chart' At first glance, it appears we have some who think it will be a bargain basement trade in favor of the Cards to move up----need to go back and AT MINIMUM calculate the point value to move up. The price to move up in this market will surely be much higher than the minimum.

Come draft day, there will no doubt be trades in every direction as QB hungry teams go after ‘their guy’ I’m curious to see how close the forum members were able to evaluate both target player and draft value if SK does make a move up for a QB.

Mayfield at five and you can add Rosen to the list if he slides into the later top ten

 

[GimmedaBall]

Mayfield at five and you can add Rosen to the list if he slides into the later top ten

And how much draft capital are you willing to spend?

 

[Jetstream Green]

And how much draft capital are you willing to spend?

I would be willing to offer two firsts, one second and one fourth for Mayfield
Rosen two firsts

and would offer my second, plus my later third to then move back into the first and draft Lauletta

 

[GatorAZ]

Thanks to those who stated their preference and how much draft capital they would be willing to spend:

azcardsfan1616: Rosen, 2 1st, 2 2nd, next years 3rd and 5th

Gatoraz: Mayfield at #2, for Peterson, #15, #45, 2019 1st

Jetstream Green, Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade. (Edit:Two firsts, one second and one fourth for Mayfield)

Buckybird: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold in Denver’s #5 spot: trade Two 1s and One 2

Stout: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield in that order. Trade with Cleveland for the 1st overall pick, 3 #1s, 3 #2s, and a 3rd. (If you are trading to the 1st overall pick, get your choice of QBs so I’ll put Stout down for Darnold).

WildBB: Mayfield. Did not provide the draft picks and/or players willing to trade.

6 responses from those who have been advocating a trade up. Of course, the question itself may be getting lost in the thread—others have stated their preference elsewhere but I will not count them until they state here.

So far, (first choice only): 1 vote for Rosen, 4 votes for Mayfield, 1 vote for Darnold.

I haven't done the calculation on all the trades based on the 'Draft Value Chart' At first glance, it appears we have some who think it will be a bargain basement trade in favor of the Cards to move up----need to go back and AT MINIMUM calculate the point value to move up. The price to move up in this market will surely be much higher than the minimum.

Come draft day, there will no doubt be trades in every direction as QB hungry teams go after ‘their guy’ I’m curious to see how close the forum members were able to evaluate both target player and draft value if SK does make a move up for a QB.

As Keim said last week you can toss out the trade value chart. It’s irrelevant.

 

[Tyler3450]

Dont see the point... roll with who we have and take best player avail .. if we suck this year we will have a better draft pick next year and wont have to trade the farm....

Clearly no matter what bradford is the starter this year. I find it hard to believe these 4-5 qbs are all gonna be studs... maybe 1 if that... its gonna take a lot of luck and future picks to get thee guy.

why is it so bad to get guys like kurt warner, carson palmer, and maybe sam bradford.. you know what you are getting versus giving away a ton.. .for a guy that you are going to invest a couple of seasons in and a lot of draft picks and hope it pans out at the nfl level.

i get when you hit you hit and you have a qb for 10-12 years or so.. but that is a big gamble...

where going the route we currently do we are getting guys for 5 years or so.

 

[Veer]

I've been out of this whole draft process since January. What happened to Rosen's draft stock? It was between him or Darnold for 1st overall pick, and Rosen being the fundamentally more sound option.

Rosen may be outspoken, a bit like Mayfield, but he can definitely ball. All the other prospects have more flaws than him. I knew all the way that the inaccurate Josh Allen would shoot up the boards after underwear olympics and pro day.

If Rosen is really slipping past the top 5, he is a no-brainer. In recent years worse QBs than Rosen were drafted top 3. Rosen is pretty similar to Goff, who went 1st overall.

 

[oaken1]

That’s not even close to a realistic offer


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actually,...it is.

the #5 pick is worth roughly 1700 points.


our #15 pick is worth 1050 points... assuming next years one is around the same i.e. middle of the first... then it is also around 1050 points

so thats 2100 points from the ones... which is enough,... but to sweeten the deal you toss in a future 2

some people hem and haw about the draft value chart but most trades align pretty well with it.


if elway wants out of 5 then a two may not even be necessary... for example, one may say that this years compensatory third may hold more sweetener value than next years two

two ones and a two is a very good deal for the broncos

 

[HoodieBets]

actually,...it is.

the #5 pick is worth roughly 1700 points.


our #15 pick is worth 1050 points... assuming next years one is around the same i.e. middle of the first... then it is also around 1050 points

so thats 2100 points from the ones... which is enough,... but to sweeten the deal you toss in a future 2

some people hem and haw about the draft value chart but most trades align pretty well with it.


if elway wants out of 5 then a two may not even be necessary... for example, one may say that this years compensatory third may hold more sweetener value than next years two

two ones and a two is a very good deal for the broncos

It’s not about the trade chart it about market value. If Rosen slips to 5 people will be offering more than that.


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[WildBB]

#15, #47 and #97 this year for #8 (Mayfield). Maybe add a 3rd next year.

Don't expect Darnold, Rosen and Allen to be available.

 

[Solar7]

actually,...it is.

the #5 pick is worth roughly 1700 points.


our #15 pick is worth 1050 points... assuming next years one is around the same i.e. middle of the first... then it is also around 1050 points

so thats 2100 points from the ones... which is enough,... but to sweeten the deal you toss in a future 2

some people hem and haw about the draft value chart but most trades align pretty well with it.


if elway wants out of 5 then a two may not even be necessary... for example, one may say that this years compensatory third may hold more sweetener value than next years two

two ones and a two is a very good deal for the broncos

It's not about what the value chart says, it's about what other teams are willing to give up. You'd better believe that the Bills are going to be gunning to move up - meaning they'll be throwing all of their chips on the table with things that can be used this year. We have to not only match the value chart, but outbid them, and maybe the Dolphins, all to put the remaining team back in the middle of the draft where talent thins out, instead of the top 10.

 

[Buckybird]

actually,...it is.

the #5 pick is worth roughly 1700 points.


our #15 pick is worth 1050 points... assuming next years one is around the same i.e. middle of the first... then it is also around 1050 points

so thats 2100 points from the ones... which is enough,... but to sweeten the deal you toss in a future 2

some people hem and haw about the draft value chart but most trades align pretty well with it.


if elway wants out of 5 then a two may not even be necessary... for example, one may say that this years compensatory third may hold more sweetener value than next years two

two ones and a two is a very good deal for the broncos

Amen brotha

 

[GimmedaBall]

As Keim said last week you can toss out the trade value chart. It’s irrelevant.

Agree---but you have to start somewhere with the bidding process. At least propose the minimum @ the Value Chart with the full understanding that in a seller's market it is going to cost a lot more than that minimum trade value. I believe I stated that in my original comment.

 

[oaken1]

It's not about what the value chart says, it's about what other teams are willing to give up. You'd better believe that the Bills are going to be gunning to move up - meaning they'll be throwing all of their chips on the table with things that can be used this year. We have to not only match the value chart, but outbid them, and maybe the Dolphins, all to put the remaining team back in the middle of the draft where talent thins out, instead of the top 10.

so...you think they are running an nflGM ebay in there during draft day is that it??

Two GM's will haggle for about thirty seconds and a deal will either be done or it wont...of course the guy selling will say things like "gimme your best offer because I got buffalo and new orleans on hold and I gotta go"... and the buyer will say things like, "you aint gonna get a better offer than this and you know it".... yada, yada, flash in the pan .. and its either done or it isnt...

if elway dont like Keims offer, stevie will call the guys who have six and try and set up a backup deal just in case whoever buys five dont take his guy

what you will not have, is elway playing auctioneeer and other GM's steadily tossing out more and more compensation for a trade


the nice part about 15....with all the QB frenzy early...a top 10 type player will still be on the board at 15... but not really after 15...its kinda the end of the line for the blue chip type guys in this draft.

 

[GimmedaBall]

It's not about what the value chart says, it's about what other teams are willing to give up. You'd better believe that the Bills are going to be gunning to move up - meaning they'll be throwing all of their chips on the table with things that can be used this year. We have to not only match the value chart, but outbid them, and maybe the Dolphins, all to put the remaining team back in the middle of the draft where talent thins out, instead of the top 10.

Looking at some of the proposed trade ups (only 6 so far) I think the amount of draft chips it is going to require may be one of the reasons we've had a non-stop debate on the process of trading up.

I see a move up to the top of the board from our #15 as a move that will have us way overspending draft capital. We're competing with a lot of other QB-hungry teams. Some of the proposed trades have us giving up a lot less.

Take the minimum trade value (off the chart of your choice) and add on a couple of other draft picks as well to outbid the others. Looks as if others think we can make that move for a lot less. Hence the running debate for the past weeks.

 

[GimmedaBall]

so...you think they are running an nflGM ebay in there during draft day is that it??

Two GM's will haggle for about thirty seconds and a deal will either be done or it wont...of course the guy selling will say things like "gimme your best offer because I got buffalo and new orleans on hold and I gotta go"... and the buyer will say things like, "you aint gonna get a better offer than this and you know it".... yada, yada, flash in the pan .. and its either done or it isnt...

if elway dont like Keims offer, stevie will call the guys who have six and try and set up a backup deal just in case whoever buys five dont take his guy

what you will not have, is elway playing auctioneeer and other GM's steadily tossing out more and more compensation for a trade


the nice part about 15....with all the QB frenzy early...a top 10 type player will still be on the board at 15... but not really after 15...its kinda the end of the line for the blue chip type guys in this draft.

Are you saying the GMs have not been negotiating with one another during the weeks leading up to the draft?

As soon as Elway announced he was willing to trade pick #5, his phone was rattling with calls from around the league---pretty sure he was playing auctioneer and gathering up bids from interested teams.

Why would any GM leave such an important decision alone until minutes left on the pick clock during draft day???

 

[GimmedaBall]

#15, #47 and #97 this year for #8 (Mayfield). Maybe add a 3rd next year.

Don't expect Darnold, Rosen and Allen to be available.

Put in an 'Edit' with your exchange on the original tally post. Thanks.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Amen brotha

You live in Dallas I believe Buckybird. Fly on down to Texas Oaken. We will then proceed to go to the draft, liquor up the Cardinal staff at that strip club Dallas calls a facility for the draft, and enact our mother of all trades to finally get a franchise QB

 

[oaken1]

Are you saying the GMs have not been negotiating with one another during the weeks leading up to the draft?

As soon as Elway announced he was willing to trade pick #5, his phone was rattling with calls from around the league---pretty sure he was playing auctioneer and gathering up bids from interested teams.

Why would any GM leave such an important decision alone until minutes left on the pick clock during draft day???

why?


lets say, for sake of argument... Keim wants Sam Darnold. if that were the case he has two choices.
trade for #1....

or wait and see if Darnold slides to a spot he can afford or is comfortable with... lets say he is comfortable with five...
when elway put it out there that he would trade five... nobody was calling him to trade for the pick... they called to see what he wants for it
because if his demands are just too damned stupid, well.... indy might just trade 3 for that kinda drek,..or cleveland 4..
point being...at this point in the game...lets say elway says he wants three firsts for #5

instead of making that deal...any GM worth his salt would call Indy and Cleveland and see if three firsts,...or better yet, two firsts and a second say...would get them the 3 or 4

say those deals dont happen... then you call elway on draft day, when he is on the clock...and offer a first and a fourth to swap first round picks

elway will demand more for his pick on april 15th than he will when he is on the clock

if he sticks to his demands of three firsts then politely refer him to a CTE doctor and laugh as you hang up the phone

 

[GimmedaBall]

why?


lets say, for sake of argument... Keim wants Sam Darnold. if that were the case he has two choices.
trade for #1....

or wait and see if Darnold slides to a spot he can afford or is comfortable with... lets say he is comfortable with five...
when elway put it out there that he would trade five... nobody was calling him to trade for the pick... they called to see what he wants for it
because if his demands are just too damned stupid, well.... indy might just trade 3 for that kinda drek,..or cleveland 4..
point being...at this point in the game...lets say elway says he wants three firsts for #5

instead of making that deal...any GM worth his salt would call Indy and Cleveland and see if three firsts,...or better yet, two firsts and a second say...would get them the 3 or 4

say those deals dont happen... then you call elway on draft day, when he is on the clock...and offer a first and a fourth to swap first round picks

elway will demand more for his pick on april 15th than he will when he is on the clock

if he sticks to his demands of three firsts then politely refer him to a CTE doctor and laugh as you hang up the phone

Wouldn't you agree that all those conversations and contingencies are worked out long before draft day?

 

[Gandhi]

You can't function as a GM and only play it safe every time all the time; you'll never compile a winning roster. No chance. None.

You could easily argue that the approach you are describing, Stout, is a much safer way to eventually getting fired, and thus end up in the same situation as Solar describes as risking your livelihood, than taking a shot at becoming a very good team. Staying mediocre in the NFL is the surefire way to the unemployment line.