Don't Trade JJ

[George O'Brien]

One of the problems the Suns have in any trade discussion is the absense of valuable but expendable players. Most of their players are too young to be treated as more than prospects and it is extremely hard to get value for prospects. No one in their right mind is willing to offer Amare and Marion did not have a super year.

So ineviably Joe Johnson's name gats thrown into the pile. He is described as a "good" player but not a great one. The problem is that while he is more of prospect than an esbalished star, his role on the team can get overlooked. Even after splitting time with Penny early in the season, JJ averaged over 40 minutes a game and was the team's best defender. After a weak start of the season, JJ played pretty well late in the season.

What got me thinking about just how valuable JJ is was watching Richard Hamilton of the Pistons shoot the winning shot against the Nets. JJ's numbers are not that far from his:

Richard Hamilton
Detroit Pistons
Position: G-F
Height: 6-7 Weight: 193
College: Connecticut '00
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 17.6
RPG 3.6
APG 4.0
SPG 1.32
BPG .22
FG% .455
FT% .868
3P% .265
MPG 35.5

Joe Johnson
Phoenix Suns
Position: G-F
Height: 6-7 Weight: 235
College: Arkansas '01
Player file | Team stats

2003-04 Statistics
PPG 16.7
RPG 4.7
APG 4.4
SPG 1.13
BPG .32
FG% .430
FT% .750
3P% .305
MPG 40.6

Hamilton signed a long term deal with the Pistons starting at $6.5 million this past season. Yet JJ more than matched his performance over the last three and a half months and JJ doesn't play in the Eastern Conference.

The Suns have a history of trading away guys like Nash before they become stars. It would be really really stupid to do that with JJ.

 

[PhxGametime]

I agree - if Shawn Marion and Lottery Pick doesn't get it done, I'd consider adding Milos Vujanic (cash perhaps too). A line-up of McGrady, JJ, Barbosa, Cabarkapa, Jacobsen, and Eisley should get it done on perimeter and with capspace a Center. McGrady averages 5.9 FTM and 2.6 3PTM - his passing ability would help as well...

 

[Mainstreet]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I do not want to give up major talent, e.g. Shawn Marion, for Tracy McGrady. Sure getting Tracy would be exciting but the echoes of Penny Hardaway rings in my ears.

If such a trade were considered involving Shawn, I would not include more than a role player or two to make the deal work, like Eisley, White or Jacobsen. Perhaps even a Voshkul, although I like him a lot if he could come off the bench. I would not want to part with our lottery pick unless we can trade down and come up with talent.

Just a side thought, with Golden State acquiring Stanford's former coach, could Casey's value be increased and included in a deal for Foyle? If Foyle is a FA, perhaps a sign and trade with filler.

In my mind Tracy is not that much better than Shawn and Shawn has a history of staying healthy. In my opinion the Suns need just a couple of good free agents and their number 1 pick to vastly improve. I know, however, the Suns perhaps want to rejuvenate the fans by acquiring a big name player.

I say hold our core talent and add by free agency and the draft. This team just needs a couple of good free agents (probably at SG and C/PF) and a good defensive scheme. I would like to pick up our future center in this draft. And yes, let's keep Joe Johnson.

 

[Chaplin]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I do not want to give up major talent, e.g. Shawn Marion, for Tracy McGrady. Sure getting Tracy would be exciting but the echoes of Penny Hardaway rings in my ears.

If such a trade were considered involving Shawn, I would not include more than a role player or two to make the deal work, like Eisley, White or Jacobsen. Perhaps even a Voshkul, although I like him a lot if he could come off the bench. I would not want to part with our lottery pick unless we can trade down and come up with talent.

Just a side thought, with Golden State acquiring Stanford's former coach, could Casey's value be increased and included in a deal for Foyle? If Foyle is a FA, perhaps a sign and trade with filler.

In my mind Tracy is not that much better than Shawn and Shawn has a history of staying healthy. In my opinion the Suns need just a couple of good free agents and their number 1 pick to vastly improve. I know, however, the Suns perhaps want to rejuvenate the fans by acquiring a big name player.

I say hold our core talent and add by free agency and the draft. This team just needs a couple of good free agents (probably at SG and C/PF) and a good defensive scheme. I would like to pick up our future center in this draft. And yes, let's keep Joe Johnson.

This is still baffling to me. How can anyone compare Penny to TMac? First of all, TMac is a better player--and is better than Penny was when we acquired him. Penny was also currently injured with his bad knees. TMac has an iffy back, but he's still playing through it.

 

[elindholm]

I don't think McGrady is better than Hardaway was at his peak. From 1994 to 1996 (before Jordan was full strength in his comeback), you could make the case that Hardaway was the second-best player in the league behind Olajuwon.

 

[cardsunsfan]

Better than Barkley

 

[elindholm]

Barkley started to go downhill after his MVP season. I'm not saying one was better than the other, but you could make a case for Hardaway.

 

[Chaplin]

I don't think McGrady is better than Hardaway was at his peak. From 1994 to 1996 (before Jordan was full strength in his comeback), you could make the case that Hardaway was the second-best player in the league behind Olajuwon.

I thought we were discussing more current events, I don't believe I said that Tracy McGrady is better than Penny was during his entire career. I was comparing Penny's status when we acquired him vs. the possible time frame (this summer) for us acquiring TMac.

 

[elindholm]

I guess I misunderstood. You said, "TMac is a better player--and is better than Penny was when we acquired him." So in the first part of the sentence, you must have meant now, rather than in general (which is what I thought you meant). Yes, McGrady is a better player now than Hardaway. I wouldn't dispute that.

 

[Chaplin]

I guess I misunderstood. You said, "TMac is a better player--and is better than Penny was when we acquired him." So in the first part of the sentence, you must have meant now, rather than in general (which is what I thought you meant). Yes, McGrady is a better player now than Hardaway. I wouldn't dispute that.

I was saying that TMac now is better than Penny was at the time we acquired him. Now, 2 years before we acquired Penny, perhaps he was better than the current TMac, but I was looking at it from the point of view of the Suns specifically. Sorry if that doesn't make any sense.

 

[elindholm]

I was saying that TMac now is better than Penny was at the time we acquired him.

Yeah, you just fooled me with the "and." Usually when people say, "Thing #1 is true, and thing #2 is true," the two things aren't the same. So when you said McGrady is better than Hardaway and is better than Hardaway when we acquired him, I figured the first part of the sentence must mean something else.

Don't worry, I'll get the hang of it.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Shawn Marion is great, but he is a full tier (at least 1) below TMAC on the talent scale.

The suns have a history of trading players early, but there is reasoning behind those trades, and we usually get the better end of it.

Steve Nash turned into Shawn Marion.

Michael Finley turned into Jason Kidd.



I would love to keep JJ around, however you have to worry about his effectiveness if McGrady is added. It would immediately push him back into the 3rd option, where he has yet to succeed. Perhaps if he was made the all time point guard, so he could be involved in the offense every possesion it may help him gain some continuity, although we have no way to test it.

In the particular McGrady trade, I would not want to include him, since we are already including Marion. However, I would not be against including him in another trade to net a big man. In other words, dont shop him, but he is far from untouchable.

 

[Joe Mama]

It's really a shame that it a Shawn Marion and not Joe Johnson that would have to be included in a deal for Tracy McGrady. I mean it would most likely take both of them to get Orlando to make the trade. However if there was one of those two that I would prefer to keep along with Tracy McGrady it would be a Shawn Marion. I guess I'm also among those who suspect that JJ would revert back to his old ways if he is not one of the primary options on offense. I think JJ needs to touch the ball a lot in order to be effective.

In other words I would much rather have a trio of Amare Stoudemire, Tracy McGrady, and Shawn Marion than Amare Stoudemire , Tracy McGrady, and JJ. Unfortunately Shawn Marion would have to be part of the deal for Tracy McGrady.

Side note: Scottie Pippen might have been the second-best player in the NBA at that time we were discussing.

Joe Mama

 

[elindholm]

Side note: Scottie Pippen might have been the second-best player in the NBA at that time we were discussing.

Yep, he's the other top candidate. I remember an interview with Barkley early in one of those two seasons, in which he was asked who was playing the best in the league at that moment. He said, "Penny, Hakeem, Scottie ... in that order." And considering that he never seemed to like Hardaway, that always seemed like an impressive endorsement to me.

To address the main point, I agree with Joe Mama -- even though his contract is worse, the Suns would be better off keeping Marion than Johnson in a fantasy McGrady scenario.

 

[Mainstreet]

This is still baffling to me. How can anyone compare Penny to TMac? First of all, TMac is a better player--and is better than Penny was when we acquired him. Penny was also currently injured with his bad knees. TMac has an iffy back, but he's still playing through it.

The comparison is that Penny developed knee problems which shortened a great career. Phoenix acquired him for mega money with the expectations of improved health and him having an outstanding career here in Phoenix.

As was mentioned above, TMac has an "iffy back". He would require mega money to sign, with the expectation of him having an outstanding career wherever he goes, e.g., Phoenix.

I hope TMac stays healthy and continues to have a great career but if the "iffy back" thing turns out like Penny's knees then history would be very close to repeating itself. And both players were stars in Orlando. The similarities are a little eerie.

 

[slinslin]

Except that Penny had major surgeries and missed a lot of games while Tmac is bothered by his back but still plays and scores 60 something.

 

[Mainstreet]

As many people can attest who have back problems, if the alleged back problems persist and become more severe, it can end a players career or certainly limit that players ability to play to his potential.

I would be the last to question Tracy's heart or talent. Do the Suns really want to take the chance after clearing so much salary? It seems Phoenix was certain that Penny would be a major impact player when they acquired him.

 

[Chaplin]

As many people can attest who have back problems, if the alleged back problems persist and become more severe, it can end a players career or certainly limit that players ability to play to his potential.

I would be the last to question Tracy's heart or talent. Do the Suns really want to take the chance after clearing so much salary? It seems Phoenix was certain that Penny would be a major impact player when they acquired him.

Dude, Penny was damaged goods even before we acquired him. Are you saying that TMac is damaged goods right now?

 

[George O'Brien]

T-Mac's back has been a topic of recurring discussion. At the price it would take to re-sign him, his health is a potential issue but probably not a deal breaker.

The main arguement for trading Shawn for T-Mac is that Shawn has a big contract, so the difference in either extra players or cap hit is not that great. In theory, it would give the Suns enough cap space to pick up a free agent.

Using JJ instead of Shawn and using the cap space limits the Suns ability to go for another free agent. (This was discussed on another thread, but wandered away from this point).

In any case, I can't see Orlando doing the deal because the Magic fans have never heard of JJ. The fact that Suns fans want to unload him because they are afraid he won't be good any more is an interesting concept, but not that persuasive to me. I think JJ will become a serious second tier star, but never a dominate player. A year from now, the Suns would get a lot more for him than now.

 

[Mainstreet]

Dude, Penny was damaged goods even before we acquired him. Are you saying that TMac is damaged goods right now?

In response to your question, I don't think so and I hope not but I am reluctant to trade away a player with major talent like Marion for him unless the powers that be are near sure he is 100% healthy and will remain so barring a new injury.

I can't believe the Suns traded for Hardaway and paid major money over a number of years believing Penny would not be near the player he was early in his career.

My recollection of some of the thought processes involved in acquiring Penny, is that some players can get an unfair reputation in one city and play well for another team. I believe Orlando thought Tracy should carry their team last year much like they thought Penny should carry their previous team.

I believe the Suns thought this was the case in acquiring Penny.

Again my thought processes do not question Tracy's heart or talent. I just do not want to role the dice with Marion, much less sweeten the deal with more talent or our lottery pick.

 

[Chaplin]

My recollection of some of the thought processes involved in acquring Penny, is that some players can get an unfair reputation in one city and play well for another team. I believe Orlando thought Tracy should carry their team last year much like they thought Penny should carry their previous team.

I believe the Suns thought this was the case in acquiring Penny.

Again my thought processes do not question Tracy's heart or talent. I just do not want to role the dice with Marion, much less sweeten the deal with more talent or our lottery pick.

But TMac doesn't have an "unfair" reputation in Orlando. The management of that franchise stinks, and TMac was counted on to win games all by himself because he had absolutely no help at all. Yet, he continued to play, with a "bad back", and STILL managed to lead the league in scoring this season.

How is that the same as Penny?

 

[Mainstreet]

How is that the same as Penny?

Both players were unfairly expected to carry their teams.

 

[George O'Brien]

Both players were unfairly expected to carry their teams.

Actually the Magic knew perfectly well that they needed help. Howard did not produce like they expected and Gooden is no more than an "OK" player. Their real problem came when they let Armstrong go and thus went from weak to terrible. No one blames T-Mac like they did Penny, but T-Mac is frustrated with all the poor personnel decisions the Magic have made.

It is interesting that the Suns are a team that gets mentioned. T-Mac's main concern is joining a winner. The Rockets and Spurs fit that category. Including the Suns makes some kind of statement.

 

[Mainstreet]

Actually the Magic knew perfectly well that they needed help. Howard did not produce like they expected and Gooden is no more than an "OK" player. Their real problem came when they let Armstrong go and thus went from weak to terrible. No one blames T-Mac like they did Penny, but T-Mac is frustrated with all the poor personnel decisions the Magic have made.

I really enjoyed these conversations. I will, however, give one personal observation. I would not expect TMac to carry us to a championship without a very talented supporting cast. I would expect more from Kobe with lesser talent around him. It all goes back to to the argument of who is a franchise player. I believe Kobe is a franchise player but TMac is not regardless of any possible questions concerning his back. That's why I don't want the Suns to mortgage the farm for him.

And no, I'm not advocating the Suns getting Kobe unless these terrible criminal allegations are lifted and I'm not sure if his image will ever recover even if he is cleared. I would, however, give a lot more to get Kobe than TMac because I believe Kobe is a franchise player.

I think the Suns might be wise in steering clear of both players.

 

[George O'Brien]

I really enjoyed these conversations. I will, however, give one personal observation. I would not expect TMac to carry us to a championship without a very talented supporting cast. I would expect more from Kobe with lesser talent around him. It all goes back to to the argument of who is a franchise player. I believe Kobe is a franchise player but TMac is not regardless of any possible questions concerning his back. That's why I don't want the Suns to mortgage the farm for him.

And no, I'm not advocating the Suns getting Kobe unless these terrible criminal allegations are lifted and I'm not sure if his image will ever recover even if he is cleared. I would, however, give a lot more to get Kobe than TMac because I believe Kobe is a franchise player.

I think the Suns might be wise in steering clear of both players.

You missed the most important difference between Kobe and T-Mac. Kobe has proven the ability to produce in championship games. Know one knows if T-Mac is the kind of star that wilts when the pressure is on or thrives. With Kobe we know.

In any case, neither is likely to be a Suns next season.