Draft Pick Watch

[Errntknght]

Can you believe Earl freaking Clark with another solid game... thats four in a row now!

I watched part of the game and I saw Dwight Howard getting pumped over the way Earl way playing - that ought to give him motivation to continue. I did see some of Clark's old behavior showing - getting out of control - but it was minor and he still seemed to have court awareness. Damn, just what I was afraid would happen, he's a significant improvement on the Pau Gasol we've seen this year.

Thank goodness for the deep hole the Lakers have dug themselves but I'm still afraid they can claw their way into the playoffs - even if Pau never returns to form and Howard has physical issues at times.

Its going to be up to teams like the Suns and their fellow non-contenders to jump on the Lakers whenever they have an off night or underestimate them as they can afford to lose to better teams. We have plenty of reason to be 'up' against the Lakers after all the years they've trampled over us. Go Milwaukee!

 

[JCSunsfan]

Lakers win, Portland loses. Crap.

 

[Griffin]

Two longtime scouts who work for teams likely to have a top 10 pick believe that the Charlotte Bobcats should trade their 2013 draft pick, which promises to be a high selection once again.

“I don’t think this is a good draft,” said one scout. “This is the year you should consider trading your draft pick – no matter where it is.”

It appears unlikely that any lottery-bound team in the upcoming draft will find a franchise difference maker.

“The draft lottery was always supposed to be about exceptional players going to the worst teams,” said one of the scouts. “We’ve eroded the concept of ‘exceptional’ – exceptional doesn’t really exist anymore.”

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/225570/Scouts_Advice_Bobcats_To_Trade_2013_Draft_Pick

 

[carey]

Some scout / team says that every year about this time. Then they get all excited come March. His larger point does still stand though.

 

[Errntknght]

“The draft lottery was always supposed to be about exceptional players going to the worst teams,” said one of the scouts. “We’ve eroded the concept of ‘exceptional’ – exceptional doesn’t really exist anymore."

We've gone on to new superlatives is all - now we label them potential superstars. And the lottery does its job well in that the worst teams do get the earliest picks. If they trade them or waste them, that's something else. And surprise, surprise the wealthiest teams eventually wind up with most of the best players regardless of who drafted them.

If everyone is right about there being no franchise makers available this year, the gods may finally let Phoenix get the first overall pick... maybe they'll give us 1 and 2, just so we know for sure they are thinking about us. Of course, we'll get the last laugh anyway - with our front office it would be even more painful if there were some franchise makers they could dodge or draft and trade for 2017 lottery protected pick.

 

[Phrazbit]

Yes, we will draft 1st and 2nd, and in true Sarver era fashion we will select the lesser known Zeller brother... Zeppo, and Shabazz's unheralded sibling; Kapow Muhammad.

 

[asudevil83]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/225570/Scouts_Advice_Bobcats_To_Trade_2013_Draft_Pick

i dont think there is a scenario in which Charlotte can trade the reverse protection on their pick, unless they hold off until draft day to make a deal.

lets say for example they want to trade it to the suns. with all the provisions on the first rounders they own, there would be a chance that they would then not have a first round pick in 2 consecutive drafts. the NBA does not allow that.

the BEST that they could do right now is offload the protected Portland and Detroit picks they own.

 

[hcsilla]

i dont think there is a scenario in which Charlotte can trade the reverse protection on their pick, unless they hold off until draft day to make a deal.

lets say for example they want to trade it to the suns. with all the provisions on the first rounders they own, there would be a chance that they would then not have a first round pick in 2 consecutive drafts. the NBA does not allow that.

Except if they acquire another 1st rounder in the trade. For instance the Lakers pick.

 

[slinslin]

January // February



Bucks - winnable maybe

@Kings - L
Clippers - L

@Spurs - L
@Mavs - L

Lakers - L


Dallas - L
@Warriors - L

@Memphis - L
@Hornets - L despite it being the Hornets its back to back road games

@OKC - L

OKC - L

@Lakers - L

@Portland - L
@Warriors - L

Boston - L

San Antonio - L

Minnesota - maybe winnable
@San Antonio - L


Record 15-44

Our schedule is brutal. Look at february, almost 7 trip road game against playoffs contenders only with a game against OKC at home in between. 4 back to back sets.

There is a very good chance we could go 0-13 in february and for the rest of january we have 2 back to back sets, 3 road games and the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks at home.

We might very well be 13-46 by the end of february. Best case 17-42.

March // April


Atlanta - L

Toronto - W

@Sacramento - L
Houston - L

Denver - L

Houston - W

@Atlanta - L
@Washington - L

Lakers - L

Washington - W

Minnesota -W

Brooklyn - L

@Utah - L
Sacramento - L

Indiana- L


@Clippers - L

Warriors - L

Hornets - W

@Houston - L
@Dallas - L

@Minnesota - L

Houston - L

Denver - L

Record 20-62 could be worse. March is the softes part of the remaining schedule but we might really tank by then hopefully. April is brutal again against teams that should still be fighting for playoff positioning unless some team want to lose on purpose to avoid matchups.

Worst case we probably win 18 games, best case I can't see more than 25.

20 wins last season in a 66 game season would have been good for 2nd best lottery odds. Only Charlotte was worse with 7 wins. In 2011 20 wins would have been the 3rd worst after Minnesota 17 and Cleveland 19. 2009 Minnesota 15 and New Jersey 12.

A top 4 pick is realistic at this point. New Orleans is getting better and should pass us, Washington might as well with Wall back.

top 3 Charlotte, Cleveland, Phoenix

 

[Errntknght]

In January/February Milwaukee, Dallas, Minnesota all at home we should be 60-40 to win and Boston 40-60 so we're likely to win 2 or 3. In Mar/Apr we'll almost certainly take one of two from Sac plus we are likely to win another home game against a marginally better team.

I say we'll end with 25 wins and get the 5th seed before the lottery.

 

[slinslin]

In January/February Milwaukee, Dallas, Minnesota all at home we should be 60-40 to win and Boston 40-60 so we're likely to win 2 or 3. In Mar/Apr we'll almost certainly take one of two from Sac plus we are likely to win another home game against a marginally better team.

I say we'll end with 25 wins and get the 5th seed before the lottery.

Sacramento is playing better and I am not sure we should win 1 of 2 versus them in Mar/Apr considering the first is on the road and the second game is the 2nd game of a back to back.

 

[Errntknght]

Sacramento is playing better and I am not sure we should win 1 of 2 versus them in Mar/Apr considering the first is on the road and the second game is the 2nd game of a back to back.

I know Sac is playing a notch better otherwise we'd be odds on favorites to take them both. They're two months away and both teams will likely be up and down at different times so its a statistical estimate at this juncture. I hope you're right that we'll end up with only 20 wins and get the third pick but I don't think its likely.

You have us losing every road game - I don't think we'll win many but the odds are that we'll wind up winning a couple.

 

[Superbone]

It all depends on when we start looking at our youth which Gentry has alluded to going to at some point.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

A top 4 pick is realistic at this point. New Orleans is getting better and should pass us, Washington might as well with Wall back.

top 3 Charlotte, Cleveland, Phoenix

Many times the team with the worst record doesn't get the #1 pick anyway.

Play Beasley/Johnson/Morris/Marshall as much as possible to see if any stand out, and add a top 3 pick. We'll still probably be 2 major pieces away, but at least we'll have something to build on.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am pretty well convinced if we get the #1 pick, I want Shabazz. McLemore looks good too, but Shabazz size and strength along with everything else is probably the best bet. For some reason he reminds me alot of Paul Pierce.

 

[SirStefan32]

He reminds me a lot of Michael Beasley. No thanks.

 

[slinslin]

He reminds me a lot of Michael Beasley. No thanks.

Muhammad = Beasley?

One guy is a G/F the other a forward tweener.

Muhammad is characterized as a hard worker, competitor that pushes his teammates.. Beasley is characterized as a Laissez-faire pot smoker.

Muhammad was rated the #1 prospect by every source which is rare.

The two couldn't be more different..

Muhammad reminds me more of Paul Pierce if anything.

 

[slinslin]

That said Noel looks like a likely #1 pick if there are no injury concerns but probably will drop a couple spots because Kentucky is not doing well.

Tonight once again an insane statline. 12 points 9 rebounds 2 assists 4 steals 6 blocks.

His block/steal numbers are absolutely incredible for a 6'11 player. If he can be a PF in the league he can be a better version of Marcus Camby, possible franchise player.

I am not as high on Goodwin anymore. Reminds me more and more of Tyreke Evans possibly. Definitely has to work on his shot, McLemore and Shabazz will clearly be drafted before him which means Goodwin is not on our radar right now for our pick because I am guessing there is a high chance that either McLemore, Shabazz or Noel should be available when we pick in the top 5.

What would be the top targets of Charlotte and Cleveland who I give the best odds of being in the top 3 with us?

Cleveland has PG Irving, SG Waiters, PF Thompson, PF Zeller. They would have to be looking at small forwards and centers so Muhammad and Bennett could be on their radar as 3s and Noel, Len, Austin and Zeller for the 5 spot.
My guess they would chose between Len and Zeller.

Charlotte has PG Walker, SF Gilchrist and maybe SG Henderson. They could really use anyone Muhammad, McLemore, Len, Noel or Zeller. My guess is that they would pick Muhammad or McLemore.

That said Noel looks like the likely #1 pick if there are no injury concerns.

Tonight once again an insane statline. 12 points 9 rebounds 2 assists 4 steals 6 blocks.

His block/steal numbers are absolutely incredible for a 6'11 player. If he can be a PF in the league he can be a better version of Marcus Camby, possible franchise player.

I am not as high on Goodwin anymore. Reminds me more and more of Tyreke Evans possibly. Definitely has to work on his shot, McLemore and Shabazz will clearly be drafted before him which means Goodwin is not on our radar right now for our pick because I am guessing there is a high chance that either McLemore, Shabazz or Noel should be available when we pick in the top 5.

What would be the top targets of Charlotte and Cleveland who I give the best odds of being in the top 3 with us?

Cleveland has PG Irving, SG Waiters, PF Thompson, PF Zeller. They would have to be looking at small forwards and centers so Muhammad and Bennett could be on their radar as 3s and Noel, Len, Austin and Zeller for the 5 spot.
My guess they would chose between Len and Zeller.

Charlotte has PG Walker, SF Gilchrist and maybe SG Henderson. They could really use anyone Muhammad, McLemore, Len, Noel or Zeller. My guess is that they would pick Muhammad or McLemore.

Charlotte best fits: McLemore, Muhammad, Len, Zeller (needs PF/C)
Cleveland best fits: Len, Zeller, Bennett (needs SF/FC)
Phoenix best fits: McLemore, Muhammad, Noel (needs SG/FC)
Orlando best fits: Muhammad, Zeller, Noel, Burke (biggest need PG?)
Washington best fits: Zeller, Noel, Bennett, Muhammad (biggest need SF/PF)
New Orleans best fits: Len, Austin, Bennett, Porter (biggest need SF/C)
Detroit best fits: Goodwin, Porter (biggest need SG/SF)

-> possible top targets?
1. Charlotte - G/F Muhammad
2. Cleveland - C Len
3. Phoenix - SG McLemore
4. Orlando - FC Noel
5. Washington - FC Zeller
6. New Orleans - F Bennett
7. Detroit - SG Goodwin
8. Sacramento - SF Porter
9. Oklahoma - C Austin
10. Minnesota - C Gobert
11. Philadelphia - FC Plumlee
12. Utah - PG Burke
13. Dallas - G McCollum
14. Phoenix - G Smart

F Poythress, PF McAdoo, G Carter-Williams, SF Nash, C Adams, SF Nash

 

[SunsTzu]

Whenever I watch Noel he never has the impact on the game his stats suggest. I wouldn't be too thrilled with any of the top pf/c that look to be coming out this year with the exception of maybe Len, and that could be because I haven't seen Len play much(outside the beat down he laid on WCS and Noel).

 

[JCSunsfan]

I know people don't like Plumlee, but he rebounds the ball and that translates from college to the pro game. I would be interested in him with a mid to late first round pick if we have one.

On the other note, Lakers are startiong to win and Portland dropping again. The Lakers are in the playoff hunt. Too bad.

 

[slinslin]

Plumlee is a senior already.. not what we need.. we need young guys with star potential and charisma not rookies that project to be just solid eg Zeller or Plumless high floor/low ceiling.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The problem is that really young bigs take so long to develop that they get beyond their rookie contract before you know what you really have.

I don't mind drafting an upperclassman big if he has shown good development over his college career.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The problem is that really young bigs take so long to develop that they get beyond their rookie contract before you know what you really have.

I don't mind drafting an upperclassman big if he has shown good development over his college career.

True, but you need stars from the draft, especially from a high pick. Otherwise you end up with the ***** Morris's of the world.

 

[SirStefan32]

Whenever I watch Noel he never has the impact on the game his stats suggest. I wouldn't be too thrilled with any of the top pf/c that look to be coming out this year with the exception of maybe Len, and that could be because I haven't seen Len play much(outside the beat down he laid on WCS and Noel).

I agree about Noel, but if he can develop SOME offensive game (post up, mid-range jumper) and add 30-40lb, he could be scary.

 

[SirStefan32]

Muhammad = Beasley?

One guy is a G/F the other a forward tweener.

Muhammad is characterized as a hard worker, competitor that pushes his teammates.. Beasley is characterized as a Laissez-faire pot smoker.

Muhammad was rated the #1 prospect by every source which is rare.

The two couldn't be more different..

Muhammad reminds me more of Paul Pierce if anything.

Both of them are extremely selfish, inefficient players who play no defense. They might as well be twin brothers as far as I am concerned. The fact that Beasley is a couple of inches taller doesn't really make any difference.