The First RealGM 2007 Mock Draft
Authored by Christopher Reina - 16th April, 2007 - 8:13 pm
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With the lottery a few weeks away, we have created our first mock draft for 2007. We will be delivering updated mocks every other Monday until June when they will be arriving weekly.
1. Greg Oden, Ohio State, Center, Freshman:
With a low-post game that is far more developed than many were expecting, the team that wins the lottery will be receiving far more than Oden’s preternatural gift for shot blocking. I believe Oden’s basement for production arrives approximately where
Dwight Howard’s ceiling hangs. While both are physical anomalies, Oden’s size and shape is perfectly suited for the center position, particularly on offense than Howard’s extremely broad shoulders.
It is unlikely Oden will ever average more than 25 points per game (Duncan’s career high is 25.5 ppg in 2001-2002), but like Duncan, he has the potential to become a low-post player that can average better than three assists per game.
2. Kevin Durant, Texas, Small Forward, Freshman:
Reviewing past drafts, I arrived on Len Bias in the 1986 draft to see a comparable player to Durant in both basketball purity and physical upside. The only player that can come between Durant and Bias is
Grant Hill out of the 1994 draft.
If a GM decided to take Durant ahead of Oden, that GM must have the opinion that Durant will become a top-five player of all-time, in the category of a
Michael Jordan or Oscar Robertson. Becoming a
Kevin Garnett will not be enough in my estimation to pass on a center of Oden’s caliber.
3. Brandan Wright, North Carolina, Power Forward, Freshman
Wright hasn’t announced whether he will remain at Chapel Hill or enter the NBA draft and I expect him to stay in school, but until he does make an announcement Wright is clearly the third best prospect.
Remaining a Tar Heel could result in a national championship and then dueling it out with Michael Beasley for the top spot in the 2008 draft.
4. Roy Hibbert, Georgetown, Center, Junior:
Hibbert’s 19 and 6 against Ohio State in the semifinal game, along with double-doubles in each of the previous six games, have cemented him in the top-eight. Hibbert’s stock was certain to rise after the season when the lure of his size would loom larger than the impressive statistical achievements of low ceiling players.
5. Al Horford, Florida, Power Forward, Junior:
Shelden Williams was the fifth pick last season and the only thing that really separates him from Horford is that his girlfriend is a better ballplayer than he is. Their upside is limited, but you will be able to count on them to provide steady contributions in the frontcourt where you can never have enough talent on your roster at that spot.
6. Mike Conley, Jr., Ohio State, Point Guard, Freshman
I’m not quite convinced of Conley’s perimeter shot and there are always durability questions for a player as small and slight as he is, but his ability to penetrate and stay completely calm, regardless of the situation, cannot be taught.
7. Jeff Green, Georgetown, Small Forward, Junior:
His disappearing act in the Final Four was surprising and disappointing, but he is a solid 6-9 with a much more polished offensive game than Julian Wright. He shot 51% from the field and 37% from 3-point territory. Green also scored in double-figures in 17 of his final 19 college games.
8. Yi Jianlian, China, Power Forward:
The comparisons to Yao Ming will come but his game is much more similar to a
Dirk Nowitzki on the high-end or
Donyell Marshall on the lower middle-end. He has a surprisingly high amount of flair and agility to his game. There was little doubt that Yao’s game would simply have to convert to the NBA level, so while we have a fairly educated idea how the Euros will fare, there is still a learning curve on players from the Far East.
9. Corey Brewer, Florida, Small Forward, Junior:
Brewer significantly improved his stock with a MOP in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, but I expect him to be picked up here as teams lean towards positional upside ahead of him.
He has game-changing swagger and also has a perimeter shot that should put him in the top-ten at his position, not to mention plastic man athleticism.
10. Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech, Small Forward, Freshman:
Young still has the potential to shoot up draft boards and become a top-five pick, but for now he is right on the top-ten bubble. Like most freshmen, Young played through periods of inconsistency, but the 30 points he dropped on Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament and the 25 he had in Georgia Tech’s late season win against UNC just shows you that he indeed has top-five pick abilities.
11. Julian Wright, Kansas, Small Forward, Sophomore:
Wright will surely become an effective NBA player, but as Ben Rubin pointed out on April 11th, when was the last time a small forward who can’t shoot from the perimeter became a top player at his position?
There is little doubt that he will become a contributing player, but probably in the
Jarvis Hayes level, also a 10th overall pick.
12. Al Thornton, Florida State, Small Forward, Senior:
It is pretty rare to see a player of Thornton’s athletic abilities become a fifth-year senior, but could instantly help out a team that narrowly missed out on the playoffs. Thornton’s 19.7 and 7.2 capped off a career at Florida State, which saw him, make great strides as an all-round player.
13. Joakim Noah, Florida, Power Forward, Junior:
Noah holds some very unique gifts for a player of his size and he could thrive in the right situation, but many GMs hold serious reservations. His points and blocks per game both dipped in his junior season and his lack of offensive production over the final 10 games of the season is a little scary. Getting a player like Noah at 12 would be a great steal, but if a team picked him in the top-six, his bust potential is extremely high.
14. Spencer Hawes, Washington, Center, Freshman:
Hawes has an extremely polished low post game for a player of his age and unlike Aaron Gray there is a lot of room for growth, which should allow him to be snagged in the lottery.
15. Nicolas Batum, Le Mans Sarthe Basket, Small Forward:
Batum is very young and raw but has shown great abilities for a player of his size. He will be one of the most complete players in the league and could exceed a
Mike Dunleavy in terms of NBA effectiveness. He is likely quicker but I see his athleticism coming in much closer to Dunleavy than a
Tracy McGrady.
16. Rudy Fernandez, DKV Joventut, Shooting Guard:
Watching clips of Rudy Fernandez is extremely entertaining because his athleticism is stunning. He has nice form on his outside shot and has a cocky demeanor that will endure him to the fans of where ever he lands. He obviously will not even tough
Kobe Bryant’s class, but you can’t help but watch some of his spin moves and think of him. His upper body needs work, but when it arrives, you will be looking at the steal of the draft.
17. Acie Law IV, Texas A&M, Point Guard, Senior:
I can’t help put pigeonholed Law into the
Juan Dixon category as a four-year college player who has reached his potential and does not have the size or athleticism to become a great player. He can be a very useful player and would be an excellent back-up point guard for most teams.
18. Tiago Splitter, Tau Vitoria, Power Forward:
Splitter has a well-rounded game, but doesn’t possess enough agility or athleticism to make him an elite player and is likely looking at a Žarko Čabarkapa type of existence in the NBA.
19. Josh McRoberts, Duke, Power Forward, Sophomore:
McRoberts decision to leave Duke was perhaps the most surprising. McRoberts could have stayed at Duke and enjoyed a bounce back season which would have lifted his value but instead will be drafted in the second half of the first round. He has the ability to do a lot of the things that has made
Rasheed Wallace a great NBA player, but it is unlikely that he becomes half as good.
20. Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh, Center, Senior:
This draft is certainly deeper and better than last year but let’s not forget that Patrick O’Bryant was a lottery pick. What is concerning about a player like Gray is that the majority of his potential has already been reached.
21. Nick Young: USC, Shooting Guard, Junior:
Young is a steady scorer and average athlete who is unlikely to have the kind of success in the pro game as he has with the Trojans. He has the ability to be a very good defender and will likely become a
Greg Buckner-plus kind of player.
22. Marco Belinelli, Climamio Bologna, Shooting Guard:
Like Fernandez, Belinelli has explosive hops and is pure on offense, both with and without the ball. He has the kind of upside that could make him an NBA All-Star, something that is rare to find from a player drafted in the 20’s.
23. Marc Gasol. Akasvayu Girona, Center:
Gasol comes over to the United States with a great pedigree and a 7-1 frame. He is not nearly as well-rounded of a ballplayer as Pau and is also less athletic, but in a league desperate for low-post scoring, he is worth a shot.
24. Alando Tucker, Wisconsin, Small Forward, Senior:
Like
P.J. Tucker, Alando is another player who was great on the NCAA level and doesn’t possess the God-given gifts to become more than good in the NBA. Tucker will be able to contribute immediately, leading the team that selects him to believe that they have found a late first round steal, but what he gives you in year four will be nearly identical.
25. Arron Affalo, UCLA, Shooting Guard, Junior:
The book on Affalo is nearly identical to Tucker. He is less likely to be an effective rotation player, but also could become a more effective player, given the fact that he has a more polished all-around game and a more athletic body.
26. Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt, Small Forward, Senior:
Byars is an older senior as he was a transfer from Virginia and like so many of the players I project to be drafted in the 20’s, he is ready to contribute immediately. Despite being the SEC player of the year, he remains a relative unknown commodity outside the conference, but he is a very good scorer and will not be hindered in the NBA by being undersized or not finding a proper position.
27. Brandon Rush, Kansas, Shooting Guard Sophomore:
Rush arrived in Lawrence with a great pedigree and while he has become an effective member of very good Jawhawk teams, he has failed to live up to expectations. You watch him play and expect him to be on the verge of really busting out, but he cannot sustain it and if he does come out this season, it will be out of a fear of seeing the first round slip away from becoming even more exposed.
28. Marcus Williams, Arizona, Shooting Guard, Sophomore:
Williams has Rip Hamilton athleticism and abilities, but there are very real doubts as to whether he has half as much professionalism and the desire to improve. He has lottery pick ability, which is something that is difficult to not trounce on at this stage in the draft. If Williams joins a veteran club, he could very easily become a
Josh Howard type of steal.
29. Ron Lewis, Ohio State, Shooting Guard, Senior:
Lewis’ athleticism is far better than people give him credit for and as witnessed by his shooting performance versus Xavier, his range is NBA deep. With a shortage of good perimeter shooters, Lewis is very worthy of a late first round pick.
30. Gabe Pruitt, USC, Point Guard, Junior:
Pruitt can see his stock rise considerably between now and June because of the extreme dearth of point guards in this season’s draft. He has demonstrated a very keen ability to distribute and can also score like a shooting guard.
Positional Breakdown
Point Guard
Mike Conley, Jr.
Acie Law IV
Gabe Pruitt
Shooting Guard
Rudy Fernandez
Nick Young
Marco Belinelli
Arron Affalo
Brandon Rush
Marcus Williams
Ron Lewis
Small Forward
Kevin Durant
Jeff Green
Corey Brewer
Thaddeus Young
Julian Wright
Al Thornton
Nicolas Batum
Alando Tucker
Derrick Byars
Power Forward
Brandan Wright
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Joakim Noah
Tiago Splitter
Josh McRoberts
Center
Greg Oden
Roy Hibbert
Spencer Hawes
Aaron Gray
Marc Gasol
