Draft Prospects thread

[Joe Mama]

However, given Nash’s presence, the team still hasn’t been able to effectively get past the Western Conference Championship round in either or his two MVP seasons. San Antonio’s defensive prowess and ability to dictate pacing game tempo undid the Suns full court attack two seasons ago despite Amare Stoudemire’s dominant series performance. Each game came down to the wire, but Phoenix was simply too reliant on Stoudemire and Nash in the half court game and couldn’t string together enough plays to put themselves over the top.

Last season, Phoenix came into the year much better equipped to deal with half court execution. Raja Bell, James Jones, and Boris Diaw all represented a substantial upgrade to the team’s floor spacing, playmaking, and presence on the defensive end. Kurt Thomas was another solid addition in this regard, but Stoudemire’s injury and subsequent absence was far too great a void for either Thomas or Diaw to fill.

Diaw’s nightly triple-double flirtations in the playoffs helped the Suns to push Dallas to seven games, and it was clear in that series how far the Suns had come in terms of being able to produce effective half court looks when the Mavs put coach Avery Johnson’s signature lock down defense into effect late in games. A seven game series proved that the Suns could adapt, but Dirk Nowitzki was a force unmatched in that series despite Diaw’s stellar play.

It’s not hard to imagine the presence of Stoudemire being a major factor in the outcome of the Dallas series based off of his incredible play the year prior. He and Diaw could have made a formidable half court duo to complement Nash’s orchestration, if circumstances had allowed. On top of that, Phoenix fans will always be forced to wonder what would have happened had Raja Bell not suffered a calf injury in the first game of the Dallas series.

There is no mention here of the freak Joe Johnson injury two years ago? I know you can't list every injury when you are talking about what happened in the playoffs, but that was a major factor in the Phoenix Suns defeat. I thought it was amazing that they got past Dallas like they did that year. I am sure Shawn Marion and his rabid supporters would disagree, but Joe Johnson was the third-best player on that team.

The half-court offense that year was better than last year's by the way. The spacing was every bit as good as well. There just wasn't as much movement from the other three players in the half-court offense. However, in my opinion, you are much better having Amare Stoudemire who could not be stopped in the half-court than relying on great movement and a mostly perimeter game.

When discussing last year's team I rarely bring up the fact that Amare Stoudemire was injured. It's because he was injured all year long. I do think it's fair to point out the injuries to Kurt Thomas and Bell though, and this article makes no mention of the injury to a Thomas... the starting center on an already incredibly small team.

Unlike some people I have no problem pointing out injuries as a possible reason for losing games/series. That's especially true when we are talking about players who have messed very few games over the last several seasons. I don't want to hear Dallas complain about it when Dampier gets injured. The Mavericks noon he had a history of injuries before they signed him. The same thing goes for Larry Hughes, Baron Davis, etc.

Lastly, the Dallas Mavericks beat the Suns in six games last year, not seven.

Its possible. Quite possible in fact.

Let say the Suns end up with #5. And let's say Noah goes #11 and Thornton #13 (as NBADRAFT.net projects)

Trade #5 for #11 and a pick or player. Draft Noah #11
Trade #24, #29, and the pick or player for #13. Draft Thornton #13.

If it takes a little more, JR would be available as incentive to make it all work. In fact, I think we could move Banks as part of it all.

I just don't see the Phoenix Suns taking the risk that they lose a player they really want by trading down too far. I'm not comfortable with the idea of ending up with Noah only with a #4-5 draft pick, but I'd be quite happy with getting Thornton and Noah out of this draft... at least right now.

Of course come at this point I have to keep telling myself not to think too much about that high draft pick. I just can't believe they will actually get it.

Joe

 

[HooverDam]

. I am sure Shawn Marion and his rabid supporters would disagree, but Joe Johnson was the third-best player on that team.

I disagree. Marions game has/had a lot more to it than JJs. When Johnson was on the team, he mostly stood in the corner and took spot up 3 pointers. He did some things off the dribble, but not much. He was a good perimeter defender, but didn't rebound nearly as well as Marion.

Either way, I agree w/ your point, it drives me up a wall when people don't mention JJs injury, or Amares, KTs or Bells last year.

 

[azirish]

The bottom line is that comparing this team to the last two year's teams is just not all that useful. The teams are just simply different.

As for JJ, I'd love to have him on the team. Not for $75 million. The Suns would be a financial disaster of Kncks proportion. But still, I'd love to have his ability to make his own shot when needed. Also, his size made him quite good at defending big guards. I'd like to get someone with his skills in the draft, but right now I don't see anyone who compares. In any case, his injury all but doomed the Suns in the Spurs series.

 

[panfolk]

Batum is 18 and not especially polished--he's a couple of years away from helping any NBA team. The Suns hate to take guys who can't contribute right away and try to build them up--they'd much rather pick guys who can help immediately (and build them up).

Also, Batum isn't a pure shooter, and the first thing the Suns need in a SF is the ability to consistently make open perimeter shots. Not that they don't need all-around skills, too, but those all-around skills aren't worth much if the player can't knock down open shots as well.

This is what I was looking for. I didnt know Batum was getting knocked for his shooting.

AZIrish, the idea that the Suns wouldnt be looking for a SF is strange. Given the state of the bench the only spots Im comfortable with are SG and PF. Even then KT is getting old and Barbosa is a small SG.

By position:

PG - Nash has several more years left in him but we need a solid backup and a player to take over the reins in 3 years or so.
SG - Bell is streaky but good and Barbosa is excellent but small. The likes of an all-around player who can defend bigger wings (like Sefolosha, Salmons, Brewer, Batum) could be considered a need.
SF- Marion adds alot and I like JR but the aforementioned wing would help as long as he could knock down some shots.
PF - We have an underperforming Frenchman, an old timer that has lost his shooting touch and that is about it.
C - Amare is great but we need someone dedicated to boards, defense, and a jumper out to the elbow.

I think the glaring needs are rebounding and reducing the minutes Nash plays, but I think the BPA strategy could benefit us anywhere in the roster.

Edit:
Just think, if we win the Championship even D'A could concede that we can afford to take our time with at least one draft pick. Someone like Batum could eventually be twice the stud as Marion. I agree that we need to use the top pick on a low risk performer, but I just can't understand why a team wouldn't want to take a little gamble on a sleeper or raw talent while they are on top.

 

[mathbzh]

Batum is 18 and not especially polished--he's a couple of years away from helping any NBA team. The Suns hate to take guys who can't contribute right away and try to build them up--they'd much rather pick guys who can help immediately (and build them up).

Also, Batum isn't a pure shooter, and the first thing the Suns need in a SF is the ability to consistently make open perimeter shots. Not that they don't need all-around skills, too, but those all-around skills aren't worth much if the player can't knock down open shots as well.

Batum is not a pure shooter but he seems to have good mechanics. I think he should become a consistant shooter able to "consistently make open perimeter shots". I think he would fit the suns system pretty well. But I agree he doesn't fill our top priority needs.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Just think, if we win the Championship even D'A could concede that we can afford to take our time with at least one draft pick. Someone like Batum could eventually be twice the stud as Marion. I agree that we need to use the top pick on a low risk performer, but I just can't understand why a team wouldn't want to take a little gamble on a sleeper or raw talent while they are on top.

Darko Milic is the reason why as far as I'm concerned. With as ridiculously stocked as this draft is, with a pick as high as 5 or 4, that sleeper better turn out REALLLY good, otherwise you're looking at Bron, Melo, Wade, Bosh type mistake.

granted, the Pistons weathered the storm on that one, but if they had gotten Melo or Bosh, that team would be frightening.

 

[azirish]

This is what I was looking for. I didnt know Batum was getting knocked for his shooting.

AZIrish, the idea that the Suns wouldnt be looking for a SF is strange. Given the state of the bench the only spots Im comfortable with are SG and PF. Even then KT is getting old and Barbosa is a small SG.

By position:

PG - Nash has several more years left in him but we need a solid backup and a player to take over the reins in 3 years or so.
SG - Bell is streaky but good and Barbosa is excellent but small. The likes of an all-around player who can defend bigger wings (like Sefolosha, Salmons, Brewer, Batum) could be considered a need.
SF- Marion adds alot and I like JR but the aforementioned wing would help.
PF - We have an underperforming Frenchman, an old timer that has lost his shooting touch and that is about it.
C - Amare is great but we need someone dedicated to boards, defense, and a jumper out to the elbow.

I think the glaring needs are rebounding and reducing the minutes Nash plays, but I think the BPA strategy could benefit us anywhere in the roster.

If you've followed my posts, I've pushed for an inside guy who can play post defense and rebound while being able to shoot. Horford is my first choice because KT is just too slow. That's why I've pushed for Horford, http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/alhorford.html and http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=415

My second and third choices for the Atlanta pick are no where close to being ideal: Brandan Wright http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/brandanwright.html (great talent but only listed at 210) and Jeff Green http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/jeffgreen.html who has a great all round game and solid rebounder but is more of an SF/PF than I prefer.

If I was going for a wing I'd trade down a few slots and take Corey Brewer http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=414. He's far too light to play inside and not a ball handler, but he's by far the best perimeter defender in the draft and is a Shawn Marion type rebounder only longer. Unfortunately, his outside shooting has been erratic prior to the Final Four. A lot would depend on how he tests out, but I wouldn't pass on the other guys to take him.

Assuming the Suns can get someone who can play inside, I'm inclined toward using the Cleveland pick to take a physical wing defender who can shoot. There is a real chance that Derrick Byars of Vanderbilt might fit the bill. http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/derrickbyars.html
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=1009 More than anything else, I like the fact that Byars is listed at 6'7" 225 by nbadraft.net so he is big enough to play physical guards and some forwards. He was a pretty good college shooter.

I like what I've seen of Nick Young http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/nickyoung.html of USC, but he's smaller that Byars and probably not as good a defender. Javaris Crittenton http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/javariscrittenton.html is a big PG who might be a useful player based on his profile, but I haven't seen him play.

I'm not sure there is a classic PG in the late first round I like. Mike Conley would be great, but I'm not convinced the Suns should use the Atlanta pick on him.

 

[panfolk]

Darko Milic is the reason why as far as I'm concerned. With as ridiculously stocked as this draft is, with a pick as high as 5 or 4, that sleeper better turn out REALLLY good, otherwise you're looking at Bron, Melo, Wade, Bosh type mistake.

granted, the Pistons weathered the storm on that one, but if they had gotten Melo or Bosh, that team would be frightening.

I said that I agreed we should go with a low risk performer with the Atlanta pick. Also, isn't Darko doing well in Orlando after being under Brown's heel?

I want us to draft Horford with the Atlanta pick and trade up to get a mid lottery pick and nab Batum, Conley, Noah (if he falls), or Green in that order.
If we can't trade up then I'd like Belinelli with the Cleveland pick.

 

[panfolk]

If you've followed my posts, I've pushed for an inside guy who can play post defense and rebound while being able to shoot. Horford is my first choice because KT is just too slow.

My second and their choices for the Atlanta pick are no where close to being ideal: Brandan Wright http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/brandanwright.html (great talent but only listed at 210) and Jeff Green http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/jeffgreen.html who has a great all round game and solid rebounder but is more of an SF/PF than I prefer.

If I was going for a wing I'd trade down a few slots and take Corey Brewer http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=414. He's far too light to play inside and not a ball handler, but he's by far the best perimeter defender in the draft and is a Shawn Marion type rebounder only longer. Unfortunately, his outside shooting has been erratic prior to the Final Four.

Assuming the Suns can get someone who can play inside, I'm inclined toward using the Cleveland pick to take a physcial wing defender who can shoot. There is a real chance that Derrick Byars of Vanderbilt might fit the bill. http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/derrickbyars.html
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=1009 More than anything else, I like the fact that Byars is listed at 6'7" 225 by nbadraft.net so he is big enough to play physical guards and some forwards.

I like Nick Young http://nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/nickyoung.html of USC, but he's smaller that Byars. Javaris Crittenton http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/javariscrittenton.html is a big PG who might be a useful player based on his profile, but I haven't seen him play.

I'm not sure there is a classic PG in the late first round I like. Mike Conley would be great, but I'm not convinced the Suns should use the Atlanta pick on him.

I skim your longer posts but in general I do follow them and enjoy your perspective. I just think you're a little fixated on the interior presence and missing the point of BPA. It's not necessarily about trying to fit someone to our most glaring needs it's more about getting the most value out of a high pick.

I agree on Horford as our guy with the Atlanta pick. I don't watch college either so I don't know anything more than profiles on the rest of your selections.

I really prefer DraftExpress.

Brewer might be worth the Atlanta pick depending on how he performs this offseason at games and workouts.

 

[azirish]

I just think you're a little fixated on the interior presence and missing the point of BPA.

BPA is double edged sword. Two years ago the consensus was the Marvin Williams was second best player in the draft. It took him a while to show a bit about why he was so highly thought and even now his numbers don't overwhelm you. Still, he should be pretty good. But by using BPA, the Hawks took Willaims rather than Deron Willaims (taken third) or Chris Paul (taken fourth).

Typically, teams drafting for "need" end up taking centers because bad teams are always weak at center. Usually this leads to taking projects who are major reaches. But loading up on guys who don't meet needs just because they are rated slightly more than another guy at the same general level of talent is equally a mistake.

Am I obsessed with getting inside help? Sure. I haven't looked it up, but I cannot remember a championship team that was grossly out rebounded on a consistent level.

 

[panfolk]

BPA is double edged sword. Two years ago the consensus was the Marvin Williams was second best player in the draft. It took him a while to show a bit about why he was so highly thought and even now his numbers don't overwhelm you. Still, he should be pretty good. But by using BPA, the Hawks took Willaims rather than Deron Willaims (taken third) or Chris Paul (taken fourth).

Typically, teams drafting for "need" end up taking centers because bad teams are always weak at center. Usually this leads to taking projects who are major reaches. But loading up on guys who don't meet needs just because they are rated slightly more than another guy at the same general level of talent is equally a mistake.

Am I obsessed with getting inside help? Sure. I haven't looked it up, but I cannot remember a championship team that was grossly out rebounded on a consistent level.

I think whomever assessed Marvin Williams as the BPA must have thought it meant Biggest Project Available because I highly doubt someone other than Knight would rate the Hawks player over Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

I was trying to make two separate proposals. Both apparently under the BPA interpretation. The first being get the most ready contributor with the Hawks pick adn the second being get the highest potential player left in the draft (IMHO Batum from what I've read) with a combination of the second and third picks.

No harm in knowing the needs of the team, the draft just might not be the best option of addressing them directly. I think the draft process should be more about combing through for the players that fit the Suns' high emphasis on character and chemistry. Athleticism next and polish fourth in selection process. If we were a scrappy losing team like the Blazers the strategy would change.

 

[Diawsome]

I don't remember seeing it in the thread but anyhow if the Suns drafted Tiago Splitter and let him stay with Brazil to finish out his last year of that contract would his rookie contract start automatically or would it begin once he came over here?

 

[PhxGametime]

I really like Al Thornton but then again Marion is my favorite player and I'd like to keep Marion: Nash, Barbosa, Bell, Marion, Diaw, and Stoudemire (I'm hoping come back next year).


Al Horford moved up my Draftboard passing Noah (after watching Championship game 2 days back) but I'm going to watch their first matchup I have (Ohio State)... Brewer was impressive that game himself.


Next is Green from Georgetown and I'll key on Conley that game a little more, he looks talented...

 

[azirish]

I was trying to make two separate proposals. Both apparently under the BPA interpretation. The first being get the most ready contributor with the Hawks pick adn the second being get the highest potential player left in the draft (IMHO Batum from what I've read) with a combination of the second and third picks.

It is hard to discuss the draft without defining which pick is being discussed. Take Batum, he's widely viewed as a mid to later lottery which is far to late for the #4-#6 the Atlanta pick would be if they don't get the top 3. It is highly unlikely the Suns can trade up to the lottery, so Batum seems pretty irrelvant.

No harm in knowing the needs of the team, the draft just might not be the best option of addressing them directly.

It depends on what the needs are. Taking a guy like Yi gives the Suns more offense, which is never a bad thing, but not someone who can get minutes due to his limited expereince at playing defense. Yi might be a better prospect than Horford, but IMHO not a good fit.

I think the draft process should be more about combing through for the players that fit the Suns' high emphasis on character and chemistry. Athleticism next and polish fourth in selection process. If we were a scrappy losing team like the Blazers the strategy would change.

Overall, I think it is increasingly clear there is a "Suns type player" and there are guys who aren't.

Rather than starting with character/chemistry, it is necessary to look at what they can and cannot do on the floor first. When I read a profile, I usually start with the WEAKNESSES section. This makes it easier to filter out guys who don't fit.It doesn't matter if a guy has great character if he can't run, won't defend, is one dimensional, and can't choot. This is easier to scout and easier to quantify.

Most prospects don't qualify. Most bigs can't run or shoot from more than 4 feet.. Most shooters don't play defense and most defensive specialsts can't shoot. Most point guards can either score or distribute, but not both. Most great offensive players have a hard time working in team concept and most team oriented guys lack great offensive skills.

Few players are perfect, but some have a better combination of skills than others. I don't think the correct approach changes from high picks to low picks. But there may just not be the players available and the Suns are reluctant to take guys who don't.

 

[planaria]

Could someone post this article?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ory?columnist=ford_chad&page=All-World-Next10

 

[Russ Smith]

Gabe Pruitt is in without an agent looking for a first round guarantee.

 

[panfolk]

It is hard to discuss the draft without defining which pick is being discussed. Take Batum, he's widely viewed as a mid to later lottery which is far to late for the #4-#6 the Atlanta pick would be if they don't get the top 3. It is highly unlikely the Suns can trade up to the lottery, so Batum seems pretty irrelvant.


It depends on what the needs are. Taking a guy like Yi gives the Suns more offense, which is never a bad thing, but not someone who can get minutes due to his limited expereince at playing defense. Yi might be a better prospect than Horford, but IMHO not a good fit.



Overall, I think it is increasingly clear there is a "Suns type player" and there are guys who aren't.

Rather than starting with character/chemistry, it is necessary to look at what they can and cannot do on the floor first. When I read a profile, I usually start with the WEAKNESSES section. This makes it easier to filter out guys who don't fit.It doesn't matter if a guy has great character if he can't run, won't defend, is one dimensional, and can't choot. This is easier to scout and easier to quantify.

Most prospects don't qualify. Most bigs can't run or shoot from more than 4 feet.. Most shooters don't play defense and most defensive specialsts can't shoot. Most point guards can either score or distribute, but not both. Most great offensive players have a hard time working in team concept and most team oriented guys lack great offensive skills.

Few players are perfect, but some have a better combination of skills than others. I don't think the correct approach changes from high picks to low picks. But there may just not be the players available and the Suns are reluctant to take guys who don't.

You got me, I should have been more specific.

I think you're right on most of your points but I still think character is the first criterion; I think they agree since they didn't pick Marcus Williams.

Secondly I think finding someone that won't disrupt winning chemistry is vital. I am as much a fan of solid role players who have good work ethics (Bo Outlaw) as I am of well rounded, potent players that could be stars. Teams need both. A team with all studs will bankrupt an organization both through salary and chemistry issues. I think we are beginning to see that in having three allstars (Marion's quotes on being a main guy).

Athleticism isn't an absolute must (KT) but it would sure help maintain the pace of the Suns' games.

Polish (for the later picks) shouldn't be a huge concern if we have faith in the coaches (Dan D'an's work wiht Barbosa) and can afford to swing for the fences with a later pick (2007 Champs!). I think Batum would be a prize acquisition for the Suns in that he could be Marion's successor when the AllStar demands another big contract. That is if the coaches think Batum can make the open shot.

Horford and a promising project (I wouldn't say huge project as I've cooled my heels on the likes of Sene) would be a wise gamble if there is such a thing.

 

[panfolk]

Batum just burst my bubble by announcing he wants to stay in Europe another year so he can be a higher pick in the lottery (more or less). It's on DraftExpress.

 

[Ollie]

It's a wise decision by Batum because he would have had too much to do to adjust imo.

He's gonna workout hard during the offseason, polish his skills and his shoot and he'll be just fine next year.

 

[mathbzh]

It seems that Le Mans has given some guarantee to Batum he will be a major piece of their roster next season. Le Mans president said they will build a team around Batum next season. Batum says he prefer playing 30 minutes in euroleague than 2 in the NBA. Le Mans staff looks very happy with this decision.

 

[panfolk]

I'm still curious as to whether or not anyone has seen much of Herbert Hill.

 

[JCSunsfan]

This is what I was looking for. I didnt know Batum was getting knocked for his shooting.

AZIrish, the idea that the Suns wouldnt be looking for a SF is strange. Given the state of the bench the only spots Im comfortable with are SG and PF. Even then KT is getting old and Barbosa is a small SG.

By position:

PG - Nash has several more years left in him but we need a solid backup and a player to take over the reins in 3 years or so.

I disagree here. LB is our future pg. This team often extends leads with LB running the team around the quarter breaks where Steve rests. He'll be a different type of pg than Nash, but his distributing ability is improving and his other attributes will make this team faster.

SG - Bell is streaky but good and Barbosa is excellent but small. The likes of an all-around player who can defend bigger wings (like Sefolosha, Salmons, Brewer, Batum) could be considered a need.

Agree here. I think this is our greatest need and it seems that mgmt thinks so too judging from the players they pursued last summer. It doesn't seem that they are so clueless either. Not paying Thomas and signing Barbosa were good moves, Diaw's deal was marginal (I think he'll continue to pay off in the future), Banks didn't turn out, but it was the move most lauded by fans last summer.

 

[azirish]

Three years from now the Suns may wish they drafted a PG, but right now their main problem is get someone who can play interior defense, rebound, and still shoot the mid range shot.

KT does a good job against big, slow players but is just not quick enough for the new breed of athletic bigs. This means that Amare is left on his own with only small forwards supporting him. When Amare gets into foul trouble, the Suns have huge problems (witness game 3).

Does this mean the Suns don't need to think about life after Nash? Of course not, but realistically he's one of kind. It's a lot easier to change the offense than find another Nash.

 

[sunsfn]

The four-five spot in the first round does not come up for a good team very often, and If the suns get the Atlanta pick, they almost have to go for the best and biggest there is, according to their scouts etc.. I would be very surprised if they did any different.

Now, I guess if there is someone that they think is head and shoulders above Horford, Wright, Yi. and Noah, as far as a future all-star, then they may go for an athletic sg/sf wing player.

But at 24 in this draft, there will be at least a decent sg/pg/sf available for them.

I know they need a good big player, I also think they need another sg/sf shooter for this team. Someone that is big enough to get his shot off any time he needs to and hopefully he can play some defense.

I do not think they will keep the 29th pick, and they may have to give it to someone to get rid of Banks. I can not see them keeping him, but it may be hard to trade him even though he is young.

The suns are fortunate to have three picks in a strong draft like this, they may be able to pick up two rookies that could help this team soon.

 

[MastersofCombat]

I am still 100% sure we won't pick Noah. He is skinny, he is not polished, he can't shoot he doesn't fit well next to Amare. Brandan Wright or Al Horford will be both so much better, Noah also seems immature.

Are you going by this site cause thats pretty darn close and good
http://scoutingthenba.com