Draft Prospects thread

[azirish]

Killer statistical draft analysis by Hollinger:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf.../story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=ProRater

Notes: Durant out of this world, Oden great even with hand injury, Conley Jr. worth the #3. Green, Julian Wright, Brewer, Pruitt, Nick Young, Acie Law, Spencer Hawes are all overvalued.

It's interesting, but if his previous year's projections are considered, it certainly has its limits.

Part of the problem is that it does not run a similar analysis of NBA players using the same formulas. For example, his model had some major clunkers ranted very high in 2004:

5 Luke Jackson (rated higher than he was taken)
8 Chris Humphries
12 Andre Emmitt

2005 he has Chris Taft at #8

I'm not sure he's adjusting for team philosophy and style. For example Jeff Green played in a slow down offense with a zone defense.

Another issue is the quality of opponents. It may not be fair to downgrade Stucky for playing in the Big Sky; but it is hard to compare that to the players who came out of the ACC or SEC. It's not that hard to include the NCAA quality of schedule rating in the process. On fhe flip side, a team with a lot of highly ranked players will probably generate different stats than a team with just one star.

Still, its an interesting tool and I've book marked it.

 

[tobiazz]

Another issue is the quality of opponents. It may not be fair to downgrade Stucky for playing in the Big Sky; but it is hard to compare that to the players who came out of the ACC or SEC. It's not that hard to include the NCAA quality of schedule rating in the process. On fhe flip side, a team with a lot of highly ranked players will probably generate different stats than a team with just one star.

He factored in the Sagarin ratings for strength of schedule, according to the article. Obviously, no statistical formula can predict future production perfectly, but it appears to be a better predictor than whatever method NBA scouts have been using. You will still have players that lose drive, get fat, etc. It doesn't make sense to draft in the exact order dictated by the formula, but it does make sense to not draft a guy that has many red flags.

 

[azirish]

He factored in the Sagarin ratings for strength of schedule, according to the article. Obviously, no statistical formula can predict future production perfectly, but it appears to be a better predictor than whatever method NBA scouts have been using. You will still have players that lose drive, get fat, etc. It doesn't make sense to draft in the exact order dictated by the formula, but it does make sense to not draft a guy that has many red flags.

He didn't emphasize the Sagarin rating, so I guess I missed it.

In any case, tt's hard to analyze his approach wthout more data and a systematic way of measuring NBA success. Also, it is hard to do a sensitity analysis on his model to determine just how much change in each factor is needed to cause material results in the model.

Let me give an example. He has Taureen Green rated fairly low. Is this due to his height (reasonable) or his lack of rebounding. I mention the latter because he played on team with some truly great rebounders.

As I said, Jeff Green played in a zone defense, so I'd expect fewer steals. Does this model penalize guys whose systems are not stat friendly? If we had an application of the model as it applied to NBA players, we could work backwards and look for why guys did well and who did badly on his model.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

I think we should make a plan to get Glen 'big baby' davis. This guy is a tank, and is expected to go mid second round because of his weight.

However this guy has lost a ton of weight, has amazing strength, and I think pushing him to the limit with the suns style would make him into a beast

His charisma and attitude would be great on the suns

 

[mathbzh]

I think we should make a plan to get Glen 'big baby' davis. This guy is a tank, and is expected to go mid second round because of his weight.

However this guy has lost a ton of weight, has amazing strength, and I think pushing him to the limit with the suns style would make him into a beast

His charisma and attitude would be great on the suns

Could he run with the Suns?

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

He's lost a bajillion pounds recently so im sure his energy has skyrocketed.

If he cant, we can train him to, and he would be unstoppable

He reminds me exactly of shaq minus about 4-5 inches

 

[mathbzh]

He's lost a bajillion pounds recently so im sure his energy has skyrocketed.

If he cant, we can train him to, and he would be unstoppable

He reminds me exactly of shaq minus about 4-5 inches

I don't know... he reminds me more of Michael Sweetney than shaq...
Will he be able to keep is body in shape?

 

[HooverDam]

Im not interested in "Big Baby" at all, can you say Oliver Miller 2.0?

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[YouJustGotSUNSD]

He was on best damn sports show last week. He was down to at least 270. They were complaining they couldnt call him big baby anymore because of how much he slimmed down.

Showing 2 year old pictures doesnt help much

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[HooverDam]

If he comes with the girl, fine, pick him.

 

[F-Dog]

Big Baby has been one of my favorites for years now. I think he's a good risk--if he keeps his weight down, he'll definitely be a starter-caliber player, and there aren't many players available in the late first round with only one question mark.

I still haven't seen anything on his wingspan and standing reach, though. If he's got short arms too, he'll never be able to play center.


Anyway, I already know that Davis won't be drafted by the Suns. Even factoring in that they wanted Diogu, Davis still isn't their 'type'.

 

[azirish]

That is the first time I've heard he's down to 270. Everybody else has been saying 290+.

 

[Russ Smith]

Congrats to Arron afflalo #27 to Detroit!!!

They fooled me at 26 saying Aaron Brooks.

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

Is it too early to talk about next year already? With ATL's '08 pick (which I expect to be late lottery), I would absolutely kill to have Hasheem Thabeet. He'd be the perfect fit for us.

 

[hafey]

Unless he develops by leaps and bounds, he's way too raw. I also fail to see how he is a fit.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Too early. The wounds from this draft havent even scabbed over yet!

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

Unless he develops by leaps and bounds, he's way too raw. I also fail to see how he is a fit.

He's an excellent defensive Mutumbo type of center who gets rebounds, blocks shots, and is intimidating down low. We really don't need another superstar from this draft, and Thabeet looks to be a good compliment that allows us to move Amare to his more natural position of PF. He might never be an outstanding offensive talent, but he could turn into what Tyson Chandler is for New Orleans now.

 

[JCSunsfan]

somebody please unsticky this thread and put it out of its memory. Its like having the Christmas tree up in February

after half your presents were stolen (or sold for cash).

 

[slinslin]

Is it too early to talk about next year already? With ATL's '08 pick (which I expect to be late lottery), I would absolutely kill to have Hasheem Thabeet. He'd be the perfect fit for us.

Slow and unskilled is perfect for us?

Derek Rose to replace Steve Nash or Beasley to replace Marion.

 

[Hugh D'Man]

Or a stick in the eye to replace this thread

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

Slow and unskilled is perfect for us?

Derek Rose to replace Steve Nash or Beasley to replace Marion.

He's unskilled offensively, but he's a pretty good athlete for a guy his size. Probably faster than Boris (or close to it). Rose would be nice, but him and Beasely are top three picks. Thabeet is more of a late lottery pick, which is where I suspect we'll be picking.

 

[Ronin]

Young PG's learning from Nash.

For three days, Nash tutored 32 of the nation’s top high school and college point guards on matters like breaking a trap, setting a screen and rolling off a pick. All that was left now was to give them his autograph.

D. J. Augustin, a 5-foot-11 sophomore at Texas, and many of the others described themselves as fans and students of Nash’s game.

“He’s always thinking out there, always a step ahead of everyone else, and he always seems to make the right pass at the right time,” Augustin said.

Augustin, who averaged 14.4 points and 6.7 assists for the Longhorns last season, said he learned something during the camp about Nash that he could not see from watching game tapes.

“He’s easy to talk to,” he said. “He’s not one of those superstars who has to walk around with a bunch of bodyguards around him. He’s just a regular guy, the kind of player who wants to be approached.”

Darren Collison, a 6-1 junior at U.C.L.A., said he, too, marveled at Nash’s “ability to control a game.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/sports/basketball/05nash.html?_r=1&ref=basketball&oref=slogin

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

He's unskilled offensively, but he's a pretty good athlete for a guy his size. Probably faster than Boris (or close to it). Rose would be nice, but him and Beasely are top three picks. Thabeet is more of a late lottery pick, which is where I suspect we'll be picking.

too early to start hoping for a top 3 pick? rose, beasley, oj . . . oh yeah.









(we're so getting the 21st pick again)