Draft Update: I Think We're Going to Trade Down

[kerouac9]

Just having some fun at Cpt. Obvious' expense. Jeff has a habit of commenting that we don't know anything for sure because we aren't in the know, which is pretty much an implied fact of a message board.

Not to mention that the title of this thread contains the term "I think" and the OP has the term "I wouldn't be surprised to see..." in it.

A tradition like any other: kerouac9 finally becoming fed up with Gollin's constant reminders that no one here is psychic or has inside information to the opinions and actions on Hardy Drive, and the best we can hope for is that everyone there is doing their best, trying their hardest, and have access to information that the average fan doesn't.

Dozens of posts every spring saying this exact thing.

 

[Mulli]

Not to mention that the title of this thread contains the term "I think" and the OP has the term "I wouldn't be surprised to see..." in it.

A tradition like any other: kerouac9 finally becoming fed up with Gollin's constant reminders that no one here is psychic or has inside information to the opinions and actions on Hardy Drive, and the best we can hope for is that everyone there is doing their best, trying their hardest, and have access to information that the average fan doesn't.

Dozens of posts every spring saying this exact thing.

Thanks, Richard.

Sincerely, Richard.

 

[Jim Otis]

I like the idea of letting the draft come to the #7 slot . Sometimes a team will reach on a player to fill a big need , sometimes a team will take the BPA at the expence of ignoring a big need . I beleive that at #7 we can get the BPA and fill a big need at Guard all in one swoop .

 

[TJ]

Hey K-9: Who appointed you Editor? And who let you go off your meds?

I have a right to my opinion that there IS no profound knowledge - only profound OPINION (despite how brilliant you profess to be).

My contribution to the conversation is that process is more important than actual fact here since even the Cardinal brass doesn't have a lock on what they're going to do (because there are too many unknown factors beyond their control).

The relevance - of pointing out that we don't know what BA and Keim are thinking - is that you and a few others here seem to think that you do (& you don't).

I tend to agree with you, which is why I hate when people on the MB propose that we're going to trade down. It's hard to get into the heads of our own management, especially new management with no measurable track record, but also dissect what other teams are trying to do. It takes two to tango with trades.

If you believe anything Shefter has reported, the ratio for teams looking to trade down (later pick) vs. those who wish to trade up (earlier pick) is 2:1, meaning that if true, we don't have as much leverage to negotiate a fair trade and limits the chances one is even executed.

Also, the teams that make trades on draft day are largely unpredictable. The only time I knew a team was willing to trade was the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, which would gobble up as many picks as possible.

We'll see. It's a total crapshoot predicting who we will draft, but it is also an exercise in futility in predicting who we'll trade with and for what.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I feel with this new head in the front office and new coach, many of the trends set in previous drafts might not hold true this time.

Ding Ding Ding!

Although I agree the Cardinals would LOVE to trade down especially if all 3 tackles are gone. But so does 2/3 of the rest of the Top 10. Takes two to tango.

 

[kerouac9]

Thanks, Richard.

Sincerely, Richard.

I feel pretty proud of myself that we're just three days away from the draft, and I'm only now making this outburst. It's real progress.

I tend to agree with you, which is why I hate when people on the MB propose that we're going to trade down. It's hard to get into the heads of our own management, especially new management with no measurable track record, but also dissect what other teams are trying to do. It takes two to tango with trades.

If you believe anything Shefter has reported, the ratio for teams looking to trade down (later pick) vs. those who wish to trade up (earlier pick) is 2:1, meaning that if true, we don't have as much leverage to negotiate a fair trade and limits the chances one is even executed.

Also, the teams that make trades on draft day are largely unpredictable. The only time I knew a team was willing to trade was the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, which would gobble up as many picks as possible.

We'll see. It's a total crapshoot predicting who we will draft, but it is also an exercise in futility in predicting who we'll trade with and for what.

The evidence is there on the official site. I'm not speculating out of nowhere, saying what I hope/expect the Cards should/ought to/must/will do. I HATE predicting trades, and never do so in my mocks and otherwise.

What I will say is that the tenor from Darren Urban (who always knows a little more than he's letting on) this year about trading down is much heavier than the blanket denials he was making last year.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Hey K-9: Who appointed you Editor? And who let you go off your meds?

I have a right to my opinion that there IS no profound knowledge - only profound OPINION (despite how brilliant you profess to be).

My contribution to the conversation is that process is more important than actual fact here since even the Cardinal brass doesn't have a lock on what they're going to do (because there are too many unknown factors beyond their control).

The relevance - of pointing out that we don't know what BA and Keim are thinking - is that you and a few others here seem to think that you do (& you don't).

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[Mulli]

The Cards have historically telegraphed their preferred draft option to fans on the eve of such draft. It was clear when out of the blue Urban and Wolfley were speaking highly of Daryl Washington (whom the Cards would have picked in the first round had Dan Williams not been available). Every year, the Cards seemed to make it clear what their draft intention was.

Now? In the past two days, Darren Urban has repeated multiple times that "things would be interesting" if the Cards traded down. Today, he makes a blog post titled "How the Trade Winds Blow" where he basically says that the Cards will look to trade, and they're probably not going to trade up.

Maybe the recent reports about the Cards liking D.J. Fluker are accurate. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cards move down in this draft to pick up a second-tier OT or an offensive guard while garnering a 3rd or 4th round pick.

The Falcons are a team that's been rumored to feel like they're a player away from going to the Super Bowl. I wonder if Milliner, Ansah, or Werner are available whether they'd be interested in moving up.

Here is the original post. How is K9 offering his opinion as fact and not just his opinion to generate discussion?

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Here is the original post. How is K9 offering his opinion as fact and not just his opinion to generate discussion?

What's your point? Here's mine:

I think the whole topic is bunk because a)everyone and their Dad has reported the Cardinals are trying to trade down as well as the Chiefs, Eagles, Jags, Raiders, Browns and Browns which is common sense in a draft that everyone knows has no jump at you Top 10 talent and depth between 10- 50 and b) well yeah we have a new Front Office and Coaching staff so maybe its the simplest answer: we don't know who the Cardinals are targeting because its new people and apparently new people who value secrecy and misdirection as has been stated over and over again in press conferences by both Keim and Arians and most recently Peter Kings article.

So yeah no ish the Cardinals "may" want to trade down. But as Jeff said their variables in the air like who is available, who they like further down is still available, and most importantly who the trade partner is especially with other teams with higher picks thinking the exact same thing.

Come original. And the above is just MY opinion. Apparently the discussion the OP was looking for is exactly what he is getting. So again.... What's the issue?

 

[Mulli]

What's your point? Here's mine:

I think the whole topic is bunk because a)everyone and their Dad has reported the Cardinals are trying to trade down as well as the Chiefs, Eagles, Jags, Raiders, Browns and Browns which is common sense in a draft that everyone knows has no jump at you Top 10 talent and depth between 10- 50 and b) well yeah we have a new Front Office and Coaching staff so maybe its the simplest answer: we don't know who the Cardinals are targeting because its new people and apparently new people who value secrecy and misdirection as has been stated over and over again in press conferences by both Keim and Arians and most recently Peter Kings article.

So yeah no ish the Cardinals "may" want to trade down. But as Jeff said their variables in the air like who is available, who they like further down is still available, and most importantly who the trade partner is especially with other teams with higher picks thinking the exact same thing.

Come original. And the above is just MY opinion. Apparently the discussion the OP was looking for is exactly what he is getting. So again.... What's the issue?

You win the internet. Good job.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

You win the internet. Good job.

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I want to thank all the little people who made this possible.....

 

[Mulli]

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I want to thank all the little people who made this possible.....

"Champions"

 

[Arizona's Finest]

"Champions"

:championship:

 

[Mulli]

:championship:

I couldn't figure out a good way to type the Champions League "song"

 

[Broseph]

Not a fan of trading that far back with Atlanta. If all 3 tackles are gone take Jarvis Jones, Chance Warmack, or BPA.

 

[jefftheshark]

I think the Cardinals are going to trade up, come out in support of gay marriage and then stab a kitten to death on live TV. I believe this is the case because both the official board, along with new GM Keim, have been unusually quiet on all 3 issues.

Plus when I recently confronted Darren Urban on this topic, he merely looked at me as if I was nuts, which confirmed to me that he was under strict orders to keep this under wraps.

When this all unfolds tomorrow night don't blame me - I'm just the messenger. A messenger with an eerie, almost supernatural way of peering into the future, but a messenger nonetheless.

JTS

 

[Cardinals.Ken]

I do not feel as though the Cardinals will be able to trade down.

Feel like another avatar bet K9?

If the Cardinals trade down, you win. If the Cardinals do not trade down, I win.

 

[Cardinals.Ken]

Here is the original post. How is K9 offering his opinion as fact and not just his opinion to generate discussion?

You want opinion? Here's one, that should be accepted as a truism:

Mulli likes poo.

 

[Mulli]

You want opinion? Here's one, that should be accepted as a truism:

Mulli likes poo.

Every morning. Feels good.

 

[kerouac9]

I do not feel as though the Cardinals will be able to trade down.

Feel like another avatar bet K9?

If the Cardinals trade down, you win. If the Cardinals do not trade down, I win.

Mmm... I think there are a couple more variables in this. I'm not one of those people who think that the Cards are hell-bent on trading down. I think a lot of these reports about "BROWNS WANT TO TRADE DOWN!" are based on feelers going out to other teams about availability of a trade partner, and that happens in almost every draft. It'd be irresponsible not to.

How about this?

If the Cards trade down, I win.
If the Cards select Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, or Eric Fisher, we push.
If the Cards stand pat and select any other player, you win.​

Would that be at all enticing to you?

 

[crisper57]

I think we need a sticky thread for all the side-bets that are being placed on the draft. As a spectator, I've lost track and they really do entertain me.

 

[Cardinals.Ken]

Mmm... I think there are a couple more variables in this. I'm not one of those people who think that the Cards are hell-bent on trading down. I think a lot of these reports about "BROWNS WANT TO TRADE DOWN!" are based on feelers going out to other teams about availability of a trade partner, and that happens in almost every draft. It'd be irresponsible not to.

How about this?

If the Cards trade down, I win.
If the Cards select Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, or Eric Fisher, we push.
If the Cards stand pat and select any other player, you win.​

Would that be at all enticing to you?

Yes...indeed it is enticing!

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[kerouac9]

Yes...indeed it is enticing!

Done. I like this bet.

I would happily draft Mingo in that spot. I think that if Mingo or Milliner are somehow there, the Cards will generate interest on the trade market. The drop off in pass rusher after Mingo is steep, regardless of what you think of Mingo's value overall.

I think that Loutoulelei drops significantly (like into the 20s). When was the last time a defensive tackle weighing more than 320 lbs was drafted in the top 10?

 

[CardsFan88]

Well if Warmack is on the board, we shouldn't trade down.
If he's gone, hopefully one of the tackles are available. (probably not)
If those four are gone you look to trade down.
If no one will trade down even for day 3 pick.
You think about taking Tavon Austin (because you're basically screwed imo)
If he's not there, then I want to see Keim stand up and punch the ESPN war room camera because you really would be screwed.

Then take one of the following; Cooper, Jordan, Jones, Milliner, Fluker.

I'm not one that really wants Tavon. But I think he's a playmaker. If the top four OL are gone and no one will trade with you, then you think about taking him. I feel the next five have more issues and questions. So imo you take the playmaker over them.

But I'd still rather trade down a few spots even for a 5th round pick. Perhaps you even call someone's bluff with Tavon. Because once someone is drafted, then the real offers would come in. We're in a real guessing game draft. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few trades completed after someone was drafted because no one knows anything.

 

[crisper57]

Well if Warmack is on the board, we shouldn't trade down.
If he's gone, hopefully one of the tackles are available. (probably not)
If those four are gone you look to trade down.
If no one will trade down even for day 3 pick.
You think about taking...

If this happens, just draft Nassib and hold him hostage from the Bills/Eagles until they trade draft picks for him.