Fanspeak: On The Clock

[oaken1]

a couple mocks... this one went pretty well... at the pick Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson were all still on the board..
.
15: R1P15
QB SAM DARNOLD
USC

47: R2P15
G BILLY PRICE
OHIO STATE

79: R3P15
WR SIMMIE COBBS JR.
INDIANA

97: R3P33
WR JORDAN LASLEY
UCLA

135: R4P33
DL POONA FORD
TEXAS

Then I decided to see what kind of mock I could run if we already had our QB by draft time...

15: R1P15
OT MIKE MCGLINCHEY
NOTRE DAME

47: R2P15
WR CHRISTIAN KIRK
TEXAS A&M

79: R3P15
LB LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH
BOISE STATE

97: R3P33
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF

135: R4P33
G SCOTT QUESSENBERRY
UCLA

Really scored big on that second draft... that third round is pretty amazing...but we all know it is likely Mike Hughes goes in round one or early two....Vander Esch may creep in to the first round also by draft day....if we already have a QB I would be ecstatic to get this draft... at the time I picked in the third round Luke Faulk and Kyle Lauletta were still on the board bu they were gone before I picked at the end of the fourth.... but I couldnt pass on Mike Hughes for a developmental QB at that point.

I used the NFL Mock big board and the fanspeak team needs

lets see what you get,... one with us needing a high QB...and one if we already signed a QB...

https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/draft.php?d=ytbpgq

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I got a couple these drafts, that I will post over the weekend before the combine.

Billy Price is a tough player to pass on in the 2nd round, same goes for Taven Bryan.

There has only been a single Fanspeak mock draft where at least one of the QB's were not available at #15, but it let me select Minkah Fitzpatrick at that spot, which was cool. Had to pick Mason Ruldolph in the 2nd, which was fine with me as well.

I like Christian Kirk, and Leighton Vander Esch, as well.

The only player I would have changed out here is Will Clapp for Scott Quessenberry.

 

[imaCafan]

I used the NFL Mock big board and the fanspeak team needs too:


15: R1P15
G QUENTON NELSON
NOTRE DAME

47: R2P15
QB LAMAR JACKSON
LOUISVILLE

79: R3P15
WR CHRISTIAN KIRK
TEXAS A&M

97: R3P33
WR SIMMIE COBBS JR.
INDIANA

135: R4P33
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF

Or:

1: R1P15
QB SAM DARNOLD
USC

2: R2P15
WR ANTHONY MILLER
MEMPHIS

3: R3P15
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS

4: R3P33
WR SIMMIE COBBS JR.
INDIANA

5: R4P33
CB KEVIN TOLIVER II
LSU

 

[WindCardinal]

15: R1P15
EDGE HAROLD LANDRY
BOSTON COLLEGE

47: R2P15
QB MASON RUDOLPH
OKLAHOMA STATE

79: R3P15
CB QUENTON MEEKS
STANFORD

97: R3P33
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS

135: R4P33
WR DANTE PETTIS
WASHINGTON

154: R5P15
TE TROY FUMAGALLI
WISCONSIN

254: R7P36
K EDDIE PINIERO
FLORIDA

 

[oaken1]

I used the NFL Mock big board and the fanspeak team needs too:


15: R1P15
G QUENTON NELSON
NOTRE DAME

47: R2P15
QB LAMAR JACKSON
LOUISVILLE

79: R3P15
WR CHRISTIAN KIRK
TEXAS A&M

97: R3P33
WR SIMMIE COBBS JR.
INDIANA

135: R4P33
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF

Or:

1: R1P15
QB SAM DARNOLD
USC

2: R2P15
WR ANTHONY MILLER
MEMPHIS

3: R3P15
C FRANK RAGNOW
ARKANSAS

4: R3P33
WR SIMMIE COBBS JR.
INDIANA

5: R4P33
CB KEVIN TOLIVER II
LSU

that first draft is off the friggin hook!!... Hell, I love the second one too...

I wish they would get with the updates though...pretty certain Hughes will be a first rounder...early second at least...dude is rising

 

[Brak]

I don't understand the hype on Darnold or Rosen. At least one of them will be a total bust, maybe both. Remember when Matt Barkley was in everybody's Top 10 for the draft? That was his junior year. Slid downhill his senior year, and at last check, was still sliding.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Here is one from today.

LOL. Draft predictions are ALL OVER the place right now. It is almost comical. I have seen mocks with Kameron Kelly in the 1st round. Heck, my first 5 picks are gone by the second round pick in some mocks.

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[Cards Czar]

Here is one from today.

LOL. Draft predictions are ALL OVER the place right now. It is almost comical. I have seen mocks with Kameron Kelly in the 1st round. Heck, my first 5 picks are gone by the second round pick in some mocks.

You must be registered for see images attach

Not bad! If Vander Esch was there at #79, I would be running up to the podium clicking heels.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Not bad! If Vander Esch was there at #79, I would be running up to the podium clicking heels.

I say the same thing for Marcell Ateman and Duke Ejiofor to be honest. Gotta take this draft machine for what it is, a decent guess.

 

[MadCardDisease]

The first one was based off the Fanspeak big board:

15: R1P15
QB JOSH ALLEN
WYOMING


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF


79: R3P15
LB LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH
BOISE STATE


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR D.J. CHARK
LSU


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI




This second one was based off of the Bleacher Report big board:

15: R1P15
QB BAKER MAYFIELD
OKLAHOMA


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
CENTRAL FLORIDA


79: R3P15
OT ORLANDO BROWN
OKLAHOMA


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR DAESEAN HAMILTON
PENN STATE


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISS

 

[cardncubfan]

The first one was based off the Fanspeak big board:

15: R1P15
QB JOSH ALLEN
WYOMING


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF


79: R3P15
LB LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH
BOISE STATE


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR D.J. CHARK
LSU


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI




This second one was based off of the Bleacher Report big board:

15: R1P15
QB BAKER MAYFIELD
OKLAHOMA


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
CENTRAL FLORIDA


79: R3P15
OT ORLANDO BROWN
OKLAHOMA


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR DAESEAN HAMILTON
PENN STATE


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISS

I would take either one of those drafts.

 

[Jetstream Green]

15: R1P15
QB BAKER MAYFIELD
OKLAHOMA

47: R2P15
CB TARVARUS MCFADDEN
FLORIDA STATE

79: R3P15
C JAMES DANIELS
IOWA

97: R3P33
WR EQUANIMEOUS ST. BROWN
NOTRE DAME

135: R4P33
G COLE MADISON
WASHINGTON STATE

154: R5P15
FB DIMITRI FLOWERS
OKLAHOMA

254: R7P36
OT DAVID BRIGHT
STANFORD

 

[RugbyMuffin]

The first one was based off the Fanspeak big board:

15: R1P15
QB JOSH ALLEN
WYOMING


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
UCF


79: R3P15
LB LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH
BOISE STATE


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR D.J. CHARK
LSU


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI




This second one was based off of the Bleacher Report big board:

15: R1P15
QB BAKER MAYFIELD
OKLAHOMA


47: R2P15
CB MIKE HUGHES
CENTRAL FLORIDA


79: R3P15
OT ORLANDO BROWN
OKLAHOMA


97: R3P33
TE HAYDEN HURST
SOUTH CAROLINA


135: R4P33
WR DAESEAN HAMILTON
PENN STATE


154: R5P15
LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA


254: R7P36
RB ITO SMITH
SOUTHERN MISS

Those 3-15 picks are money.

Orlando Brown in the 3rd ? Yes, please.

 

[Wellthatsjustfine]

I just don’t understand why they can’t make one of these simulators that has some sort of basis in reality. None of the drafts listed in this thread have a fraction of a decimal of a percentage of a chance of ever occurring. Most of them have a minimum of three first round picks. Some five. What am I missing?

 

[oaken1]

I just don’t understand why they can’t make one of these simulators that has some sort of basis in reality. None of the drafts listed in this thread have a fraction of a decimal of a percentage of a chance of ever occurring. Most of them have a minimum of three first round picks. Some five. What am I missing?

well here's the thing... there can only be 32 first round picks. I think these sims favor offensive skill players a bit...have teams taking WR over other positions if that is a position of need...but they also favor premium positions... QB, CB, EDGE... in the sims I have done I noticed the edge rushers came off the board very fast...
keep seeing Mike Hughes available in the third...would be stoked to get him in the third, lol....all you can really do is look back over each round and see if it is realistic.. even in real life sometimes guys slide... but rarely do they slide two rounds, lol.
the sim also has a "difficulty" level...maybe, a draft would look more "realistic" to you if you bumped it up instead of running standard?

 

[JeffGollin]

Can we safely assume that most mocks are biased in favor of the number of teams expected to draft according to need?

In the real world, we can expect more teams to draft according to BPA. There will also be a couple of teams who traditionally draft dumb. All it takes is one funky trade to screw up the best of drafts. And more than a couple of teams will probably lie.

Suggestion for you stat guys - review drafts for past 5 years or so and compare actual results with top mocks. (Other than a few local and national guys with insider info, the mocks usually bear little resemblance to reality.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Can we safely assume that most mocks are biased in favor of the number of teams expected to draft according to need?

Suggestion for you stat guys - review drafts for past 5 years or so and compare actual results with top mocks. (Other than a few local and national guys with insider info, the mocks usually bear little resemblance to reality.

Some people still pray to an imaginary god, but if it gives them some fun or peace of mind then I guess it doesn't hurt. Our image of the world it just that, an image (as in imaginary). A cosmic computer simulation where we have all created our own SIM in our minds and live accordingly.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program. Dilly Dilly

 

[Ohcrap75]

I just don’t understand why they can’t make one of these simulators that has some sort of basis in reality. None of the drafts listed in this thread have a fraction of a decimal of a percentage of a chance of ever occurring. Most of them have a minimum of three first round picks. Some five. What am I missing?

The biggest reason is that the player rankings are based off of big boards and not draft projections. Most boards don't have 5 Qb's ranked in the top 15, but that's very likely to happen.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Congratulations!

Here is a gift for all the posters who came to this thread just to say how unrealistic the draft simulators are!

You must be registered for see images attach

Congrats for pointing out what has already been pointed out, and for talking down to people who are simply enjoying something, and giving them something to talk about. GREAT JOB!

PS - I will be putting out a thread of these mocks at some point over the weekend. No need to comment on that thread either, the message that you feel these are waste of time has been filed for future reference.

 

[oaken1]

Can we safely assume that most mocks are biased in favor of the number of teams expected to draft according to need?

In the real world, we can expect more teams to draft according to BPA. There will also be a couple of teams who traditionally draft dumb. All it takes is one funky trade to screw up the best of drafts. And more than a couple of teams will probably lie.

Suggestion for you stat guys - review drafts for past 5 years or so and compare actual results with top mocks. (Other than a few local and national guys with insider info, the mocks usually bear little resemblance to reality.

this is true Jeff... which is why "team needs" is a choice in setting up the mock,lol.... sims cannot take into consideration a GM's plans for the future,...or inside info on how an existing player is developing...or even that "Option B" is just head and shoulders better than "Need A"

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I just don’t understand why they can’t make one of these simulators that has some sort of basis in reality. None of the drafts listed in this thread have a fraction of a decimal of a percentage of a chance of ever occurring. Most of them have a minimum of three first round picks. Some five. What am I missing?

What you are missing are realistic expectations for any mock draft, and some base line mock draft that you can base your claim of these simulated mocks being any less realistic than any other mock that comes from any other source.

Any and all mocks, even Kipers, Mayocks, and the "guru''s mocks have a fraction of a decimal percentage of ever occurring.

Just play with the thing, and have fun with it. It is for fun. Pointing out how inaccurate it is, is like telling people WWE isn't real, and expecting that they do not know it, and that it shatters the enjoyment they have in it.

Seriously, play with the simulator, do a few mocks, and in the very least it will make you look up players you normally would not look into, and bring up things to talk about.

For example, I would not know about Darius Leonard, LB, from SOuth Carolina state, but I hit a draft and didn't know who to pick, and I had a note about this guy. Looked into it, and he is a good mid to late round linebacker that would "seem to fit the Cardinals system" (I say that since it is a guess at what the system would be).

Don't over think it, just have fun with it.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

I don't understand the hype on Darnold or Rosen. At least one of them will be a total bust, maybe both. Remember when Matt Barkley was in everybody's Top 10 for the draft? That was his junior year. Slid downhill his senior year, and at last check, was still sliding.

There is not one thing solid that you can criticize Rosen for as a prospect, except for what some people's image of him is. He, by all visible evidence, could very well be the next Peyton Manning. Is that not worth taking a shot at him at #1.

As for Darnold, who knows? He is just too young to say for sure. His ratings are based on 'glimpses' of what he might be. True, he may turn out to be great, but there is a big gamble to that. But when talking QBs, there is usually a big gamble involved.

Mayfield doesn't meet the criteria the league has set for a big boy Pro QB. That doesn't mean he can't be a Brees or Wilson type, but it is rare, so carries a very high risk factor in the very opposite way Darnald does.

Allen is simply a physical freak and will be drafted purely on what one thinks they may be able to turn him into. Odds are not good on this, but I can't help wondering if Brett Favre wasn't looked at in the same way at one time. Allen is a guy who could fail under one team of coaches and management, and then turn around and succeed under another. He is a guy you take just 'hoping' after the other more assured QBs are taken and you know you will be in need of a QB within a couple years.

Rudolph has the measurements and has succeeded at a couple of levels. He could very well be a serviceable starter (ala Flacco). Big question about his arm strength, but not every starter in the league has a big arm. He could end up being around in 20 yrs after a Josh McCown type career.

All others: Fish in a barrel with hopes of catching lightning in a bottle ala Brady.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

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[RugbyMuffin]

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[RugbyMuffin]

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