Five Cardinals with the Most at Stake in 2022

[kerouac9]

I will happily put money on Allen not getting close to $10m. Fotukasi just got $10m and Allen isn't close unless he suddenly takes off this year. I can't think of a more replaceable player.

Why do you believe Allen isn't close to Fatukasi? Here's the comparison from Pro Football Reference, and it seems pretty close. Although Fatuaksi is a nose tackle and Allen is an end.

I think people are underestimating how much NFL teams value interior defensive linemen who can play 70-80% of snaps and be productive.

 

[BritCard]

Why do you believe Allen isn't close to Fatukasi? Here's the comparison from Pro Football Reference, and it seems pretty close. Although Fatuaksi is a nose tackle and Allen is an end.

I think people are underestimating how much NFL teams value interior defensive linemen who can play 70-80% of snaps and be productive.

Because one is good at his job and one isn't?

We need to stop using Allen's snap count as some kind of yard stick for talent. He played that many snaps last year because Watt missed 10 games and Jordan Phillips missed 9. We had nobody else to play.

Allen is a completely average player. Even Fatukasi is overpaid. This is the same Jags that paid $17m to Kirk.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Byron Murphy is likely going to be the Christian Kirk of D. Only good in the slot, and will get wildly overpaid.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

That cap projection doesn't include the new TV money.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Because one is good at his job and one isn't?

We need to stop using Allen's snap count as some kind of yard stick for talent. He played that many snaps last year because Watt missed 10 games and Jordan Phillips missed 9. We had nobody else to play.

Allen is a completely average player. Even Fatukasi is overpaid. This is the same Jags that paid $17m to Kirk.

Heh PFF grades:

Fatukasi 61
Zach Allen 58

Pretty damn close

 

[Krangodnzr]

Byron Murphy is likely going to be the Christian Kirk of D. Only good in the slot, and will get wildly overpaid.

Murphy played quite a bit on the outside too.

It's becoming more and more ridiculous to criticize Murphy. He's a good player and every metric backs that up.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Why do you believe Allen isn't close to Fatukasi? Here's the comparison from Pro Football Reference, and it seems pretty close. Although Fatuaksi is a nose tackle and Allen is an end.

I think people are underestimating how much NFL teams value interior defensive linemen who can play 70-80% of snaps and be productive.

I'd argue that NT is way less important than end or NT, but that's just me.

Throw a fat guy out there that is hard to move and you'll get reasonable NT play.

 

[kerouac9]

Murphy played quite a bit on the outside too.

It's becoming more and more ridiculous to criticize Murphy. He's a good player and every metric backs that up.

I think Murphy is a higher-quality player than Kirk, but I understand the discourse. Contrary to popular belief, it’s more difficult to play slot corner than on the outside. It’s good that he can play both.

I'd argue that NT is way less important than end or NT, but that's just me.

Throw a fat guy out there that is hard to move and you'll get reasonable NT play.

I dunno. If you can get Vita Vea it’s absolutely crushing. But a league average DE has a greater impact than a league average NT. In part because an NT is only on the field for half the plays.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think Murphy is a higher-quality player than Kirk, but I understand the discourse. Contrary to popular belief, it’s more difficult to play slot corner than on the outside. It’s good that he can play both.

Agreed. Murphy has shown consistent improve and the numbers bear that out. It would be a step back to let him walk.

I dunno. If you can get Vita Vea it’s absolutely crushing. But a league average DE has a greater impact than a league average NT. In part because an NT is only on the field for half the plays.

Vita Vea is a rarity. The last great NT I can think of was Casey Hampton...I know there are others, but I thinking of NTs that were dominate for more than a few years and could actually wreck offenses consistently.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Murphy played quite a bit on the outside too.

Ok, so did Kirk. Kirk was good in the slot, and not so great as an outside receiver.

Did Murphy perform better all of a sudden on the outside? I don't have the advanced stats, but my impression was that he was effective as a slot, but questionable on the outside again.

Again, slot corner is an important position, but I don't think you're hoping for that in the 2nd round.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Ok, so did Kirk. Kirk was good in the slot, and not so great as an outside receiver.

Did Murphy perform better all of a sudden on the outside? I don't have the advanced stats, but my impression was that he was effective as a slot, but questionable on the outside again.

I've been looking for a breakdown from the slot or outside, but I can't find a metric....but it's no like the guy was a disaster overall. He gave up less than average QB Rating, which I think is the best metric for success as a corner.

Again, slot corner is an important position, but I don't think you're hoping for that in the 2nd round.

Slot corners are basically starters in the modern NFL...so grabbing an average starter in the 2nd round is solid.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Again, slot corner is an important position, but I don't think you're hoping for that in the 2nd round.

And another thing on this take....when there were only two corners on the field.....one of them was Byron Murphy so it's disingenuous to make it out like he is only a slot corner.

Jalen Ramsey played mostly slot corner last year.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

And another thing on this take....when there were only two corners on the field.....one of them was Byron Murphy so it's disingenuous to make it out like he is only a slot corner.

Jalen Ramsey played mostly slot corner last year.

My main concern would be paying Murphy top dollar (like Kirk). I think they're both good players, but if you pay them top 5 player at their position money, you're going to be disappointed.

My same problem with Budda - he's a good player, but not top 5 at his position, and paying those kind of guys top money is a surefire way to be in cap hell.

 

[oaken1]

My main concern would be paying Murphy top dollar (like Kirk). I think they're both good players, but if you pay them top 5 player at their position money, you're going to be disappointed.

My same problem with Budda - he's a good player, but not top 5 at his position, and paying those kind of guys top money is a surefire way to be in cap hell.

Agree. Murphy is a solid starter. But he is not a perennial pro bowl shut down corner.
Ego and the market come into play so a guy like him may look over payed when he signs his deal... but then a couple other guys get deals and he balances out.

 

[reebokalone2001]

Thompson will probably get the Tony Jefferson treatment, unfortunately.

I don't see any way they pay Williams more than TE3 money.

Humphries will likely re-sign. The O-line situation next year is just too uncertain as a whole to let your LT walk without a replacement.

Allen is kind of a similar situation to Humphries. Watt's contract will be up, and we still don't really have a NT, so 2/3 of the d-line already needs rebuilding.

I think Keim ends up overpaying Murphy. I still don't think Murphy has the athleticism to be a top corner, but something tells me Keim will pay him like one. Keim has to re-sign at least one of his draft picks again at some point.

This.

 

[kerouac9]

My main concern would be paying Murphy top dollar (like Kirk). I think they're both good players, but if you pay them top 5 player at their position money, you're going to be disappointed.

My same problem with Budda - he's a good player, but not top 5 at his position, and paying those kind of guys top money is a surefire way to be in cap hell.

$15 million APY is top 10 corner money. I wouldn't be surprised if the market for an above-average starting corner next year is about $12 million.

 

[oaken1]

Ok, so did Kirk. Kirk was good in the slot, and not so great as an outside receiver.

Did Murphy perform better all of a sudden on the outside? I don't have the advanced stats, but my impression was that he was effective as a slot, but questionable on the outside again.

Again, slot corner is an important position, but I don't think you're hoping for that in the 2nd round.

Rookie season Murphy was destroyed on the outside but PP's suspension and affords injury made the kid the best we had.
He improved when he moved to the slot his second year.
He improved again when he moved back outside.
He is what he is. A solid starting CB. Pretty easy to find maybe a dozen guys who are better. Also pretty easy to find maybe a dozen guys who are worse.
As long as we produce a pass rush Murphy is everything we need at CB.
But no pass rush? .... even Jalen Ramsey can be abused when a decent quarterback has all day to throw

 

[Krangodnzr]

Rookie season Murphy was destroyed on the outside but PP's suspension and affords injury made the kid the best we had.
He improved when he moved to the slot his second year.
He improved again when he moved back outside.
He is what he is. A solid starting CB. Pretty easy to find maybe a dozen guys who are better. Also pretty easy to find maybe a dozen guys who are worse.
As long as we produce a pass rush Murphy is everything we need at CB.
But no pass rush? .... even Jalen Ramsey can be abused when a decent quarterback has all day to throw

Easy to find 90 guys worse. Every team has probably 4+ CBs...so that means there are over 120 CBs in the NFL.

Fans on this site act like players like Murphy suck, but the reality is that he is a pretty good player and most of the leagues CBs are nowhere close to as good as he is.

Same with Zach Allen.

You can't just replace guys like Murphy or Allen without spending some coin.

 

[Chopper0080]

Because one is good at his job and one isn't?

We need to stop using Allen's snap count as some kind of yard stick for talent. He played that many snaps last year because Watt missed 10 games and Jordan Phillips missed 9. We had nobody else to play.

Allen is a completely average player. Even Fatukasi is overpaid. This is the same Jags that paid $17m to Kirk.

Average players with large snap % in contract years are the exact type of players who get "overpaid". This is the point that I feel you are missing. Zach Allen plays a high volume of snaps on a defense where he is not the focal point and on a team whose offense forces the opposing team to throw.

Gardeck had a huge sack-efficient year under Vance on 10% snaps and is not as talented as Allen. Zach Allen having a career year and 10+ sacks is not unrealistic.

 

[Chopper0080]

If we head into the season without Murphy re-signed, it will be a mistake. The issue with Kirk is that we drafted a WR to play the slot the offseason before his contract year. You didn't re-sign Kirk because you had just drafted Rondale Moore. We are not in that situation with Murphy and so the smart move is to just pay him and have a CB spot locked up.

What I believe Keim is doing instead is taking a hard line on not overpaying fringe players which is ok if you have some sort of track record in drafting replacement guys...which he doesn't.

 

[BritCard]

Heh PFF grades:

Fatukasi 61
Zach Allen 58

Pretty damn close

Now do previous years where he had 80 grades.

Scheme change last year didn't suit him.

 

[cardpa]

Murphy is a really good #2 CB and an average #1 CB. I think you need to resign him so you don't end up in a situation where you don't even have an average #1 CB.