For What It's Worth

Harry

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That gust of air Arizona residents felt Thursday night was not the Santa Ana winds; it was the result of a collective sigh from the Cardinal management staff. It’s not that they were lying when they said they didn’t move up because several players on their board still remained. Rather it was that the need for a NT was dramatically accentuated by the Niners selection of two of the best offensive linemen in the draft. Coupled with last year’s first round selection of Joe Staley and former round 2nd selection David Baas, the Niners now present a formidable line. In fact it likely is the highest drafted line in the league. They want to run a ball control offense and wear down the opposition. What they lack in quarterback talent will be concealed by demanding very little of the player occupying that slot. The Niners waited patiently for this draft and made the most of it.

As for the Cards, they selected an outstanding player. If you looked at Williams’ performance two years ago, it would be hard to envision him becoming the player he is today. Enter Monte Kiffin! While Tennessee fans may rue the day the Kiffins came to town, the Cards’ fans may come to honor that date. Monte long considered one of the great minds in the NFL, went to help his son. Not only did the senior Kiffin teach; he inspired. Dan Williams went from being a decent guy who could play a little to being an outstanding NT prospect. He can anchor as well as anyone in the draft with the possible exception of Mr. Suh. He can also penetrate a little and collapse a pocket. While not fast in pursuit or in possession of a burst that would make him a sack threat, he can get enough penetration to be very disruptive. He is good enough to play 3 downs if needed. He may never become an All-Pro, but he should be a solid player for a long time. His acumen honed by Kiffin should enable him to make an immediate contribution.

As for the remainder of the selections, don’t expect to get much comfort from the draft gurus about the 2010 group. A few of them will tell you how much they love Skelton’s arm and a couple will tell you about Schofield pre-injury. In the end though, they will see the glass as half-empty.

The most important aspect of this draft to me was what the Cards didn’t do. They didn’t go out of their way to plug holes with stopgap players. I believe instead that they are showing the first stages of a new style of draft philosophy I see emerging. In the old days philosophy was restricted to BPA or need. I wrote (I think in my first year on this board) that a new strategy was coming into play because of the cap. That strategy was picking BPAs in the top areas of need. It was sort of a meeting of the minds between the two older strategies. The Cards indicated this strategy was the one they employ to build their board in 2010.

Today I see a more complex strategy evolving among a few teams and the Cards are leading the way. If a position is a need position, don’t be afraid to overdraft for that slot. Taking two linebackers makes it quite clear the Cards see that position as pivotal for their team. The defensive scheme they wish to employ will not work without those slots effectively manned. They value athleticism over technique and believe they can teach if they have the right students. They didn’t just look for combine wonders; they selected productive players who actually played below their potential despite posting good numbers.

The only player among their selections who likely has little upside is Williams. He already plays like he belongs thanks to Kiffin. Schofield showed major improvement last season, but still has a lot to learn in coverage. What he does know is how to lead. The Cards lacked on-the-field leadership last season. It will be tough for him to be ready by the start of the season, but I wouldn’t bet against him. He comes to play. He likely would have gone in the second round without the injury. He is a solid pass rusher and an exceptional tackler. He possesses outstanding football instincts.

The Cards moved up to get Washington (I thought the price too high), but he might be the best athlete among the linebackers and has the character the Cards value. Some people have criticized his field awareness and instincts. I think their info is old. His game has steadily improved in this area throughout his career. He will provide major upgrade in covering tight ends and backs. The rough edges on his game should be capable of being straightened and he will be a productive player for years to come. He will immediately contribute at least on special teams.

Keep in mind the Cards have a returning Cody Brown to add in this mix as well. This group will be young and somewhat error prone, but also should form the nucleus of a powerful, versatile unit that will grow together.

Wide receiver wasn’t a primary need despite the departure of Boldin. However, once again redundancy is valued. Andrea Roberts is another high character guy. He will remind you a great deal of Boldin but without as much ‘tude. My old buddy Dave Te says he might be the best FCS player in the draft and when Dave talks, smart people listen. Roberts had a nearly 96% reception rate on catchable balls, which is the best number achieved in almost 10 years. There are so many extraordinary things about this guy; it’s hard to know where to start. He may well have the best first step in college football. This made him the nation’s leading FCS punt returner. It also made him a feared “Wildcat” quarterback. He took 35 direct snaps, producing 15 first downs and 9 of his carries went for more than 10 yards. Roberts is also an excellent runner after the catch being very elusive. The biggest thing he will have to learn in the NFL is survival. This is one tough guy. He loves to block. He won’t go out of bounds. He won’t give up the ball if hit hard. That said he hasn’t played against the guys with the speed/size ratio of NFL players. If he’s not careful, like Boldin, he will get hurt too often.

It’s hard to evaluate a QB coming out of a spread offense, though he played some downs under center in a more Pro-Style look. Put him against marginal competition and the task becomes even harder. So for advice the Cards likely turned to famed QB mentor Jerry Rhome. He’s worked extensively with John Skelton and he believes Skelton can make this difficult transition. Later the Cards met directly with Shelton and went to Fordham to have him do a private workout. He performed as good as advertised. To start his college career Skelton has had it rough. He was a high school star in Texas, yet was ignored by all the schools there. Somehow a rumor got started that he didn’t work hard (untrue). He has a very calm, quiet demeanor that may have contributed to this view. To get a college scholarship he literally drove to a wide array of schools leaving video tapes behind. This Johnny Appleseed approach led to a full ride at Fordham and he played well. Unlike may spread QBs, Skelton has a cannon for an arm. In one game he threw 4 touchdown passes of more than 50 yards. He needs work on just about everything, but despite being big as a redwood (258 at one point in the season), he has decent agility like Dante Culpepper. You’ll have fun watching potential tacklers hit him and bounce off. He can throw with people hanging on him like Christmas ornaments. His biggest flaw will remind you of the departed Mr. Warner. Skelton always believes he can complete a pass regardless of the coverage. A couple of people I’ve talked with don’t like his release, but it looks fine to me. Don’t put too much stock in some hesitancy in his looking slow and mechanical at the Shrine Game; he isn’t either. He was likely very nervous, but some seasoning will calm him down. "I feel like I have a strong arm, that I can make all the NFL throws," Skelton said. "I know I need a little polish and I know the coaches will work with me to improve my footwork, to improve my fundamentals." You have to like the fact he wants to play in Arizona, "In my heart of hearts, I always thought the Cardinals would pick me up," he said. "In the back of my mind, I always thought I'd be a Cardinal."

I covered Jorrick Calvin on that thread. Late in the draft you want guys who can contribute on special teams and have a shot at being more down the road. He fits that bill.

Jim Dray is a blocking tight end who lost a little speed after a knee injury a couple of years ago. He would be in the top 5 among the blocking tight ends and he actually has soft enough hands to be an effective receiver. As a receiver he looks best on drag or delay plays because he doesn’t get much separation. Still he’s good enough to demand coverage and can block at the next level. He makes at least the practice squad and maybe displaces one of the older tight ends.

It’s too early to panic about what the Cards still need to do. You already know I’m not losing sleep over McFadden’s departure. This was a good draft, both for now and the future. It may be a couple of years before everyone sees how good. I make it a B out of the chute with lots of upside.
 

binkar

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As usual, great stuff. Thanks for taking the time.
 

Redrage

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Great write up, Harry.

What do you think of the rest of our divisional opponents and their drafts?
 

HookemCards

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I'm glad you like Skelton alot, thats a relief for me. I thought the price was a bit high, especially without BMF's replacement (or Toler's depending on how you look at it) on the roster.
 

NeverSayDieFan

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Excellent points, Harry...

The networks promote what they want to. ...And they expect the rest us to follow like obedient "sheep". I have a good feeling about this years' draft and the direction the Cards are going in. ...And McFadden is addition by subtraction. GO CARDS! :D
 

40yearfan

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Thanks Harry. It's obvious you have put a lot of work into your post. I appreciate all the effort.
 

Arizona's Finest

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Great take Harry and I am on the same page with you on just about all of it.

Like I told my cousin ( a Seahawks fan ) yesterday. You can be offseason champs. We hope to be 3X defending division champs.
 

Mitch

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Great post, Harry. Beautifully written and wonderfully insightful and informative! All of it is right on the money, IMO.
 

conraddobler

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Excellent post, thanks very much.

I agree with your idea about a new hybrid drafting strategy emerging.

When you have a system, the players that fit that system have more value to you than they might otherwise have for other teams, you only get so many shots at them, so it becomes a game of getting them, without being totally stupid about it.

Given that kind of lense to look at the draft I think they did very well and for once were a bit creative about it.
 

Doc Cardinal

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You already know I’m not losing sleep over McFadden’s departure.

Me neither....apparently Clayton is....maybe his pony tail is too tight.

Good stuff Harry...as always.
 

MrYeahBut

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Harry, I think I get where you are coming from with the remark about Williams not having as much upside. He may already be good NFL talent as you suggest, but surely he has room for improvement with coaching and strenghtening.

If Dockett takes a liking to him as well and is willing to teach him the tricks of the trade, so to speak, and he has the work ethic to achieve even more, it may well be he has more upside than any of us have imagined.

At least I hope so.

Thanks very much for your well thought out comments.
 

Cardiac

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Harry,

That second gust of wind is still not the Santa Ana winds, it's numerous fans such as myself after reading your post.

As many on here know you are a tough grader with no hesitation to call it like you see it.
 

Monty

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Roberts had a nearly 96% reception rate on catchable balls, which is the best number achieved in almost 10 years.

Great post, Harry. Beautifully written and wonderfully insightful and informative! All of it is right on the money, IMO.

I cant praise the analysis of Harry but id just like to echo Mitch's comments which i think cover it perfectly.

I pointed out the fact that Roberts hardly ever drops the ball and doesnt miss a catch either when i selected him in my Cards mock draft but even i didnt realise that he held on 96% of his catches which is just ridicolously good. I thought he looked impressive in the senior bowl practices so when i looked up footage of him and read up on scouting reports and sr bowl practice analysis i just saw how he hadnt actually dropped a catch to speak of. I think this kid will be something special.
 

JeffGollin

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Thanks, Harry for providing extra info and a few back-stories about our draft picks that we'd otherwise not be aware of.

My (somewhat unorthox) theory about how our draft may have gone down:

I think the Cards tend to abide by a "live off the land" drafting philosophy; where they take advantage of value-opportunities as they occur along the way.

Our #11 guy Williams drops to us at #26. Our #12 guy Washington falls to us at #56.

Meanwhile we're also operating according to a parallel agenda - a "To Do" list with boxes we need to check off (Get an ILB, CB, NT, pass rusher, QB and TE).

The one caveat about "drafting for value" is that our drafting the guy who drops down to us must also check off one more box on our list.

We wanted to add slot-depth at WR so Roberts made sense at #88.

But it's here that the wheels came off the track just a tiny bit.

As we approached our 4th round pick (#123), we still needed a CB, ILB, TE and QB, but we only had 3 picks to draft 4 players. So Rod G took a calculated risk and traded down to #130.

Now I'm not saying the Cardinal board was the same as my board, but let's pretend for a second that it was:

I'm sitting at my PC playing "Draft Along With Rod" and the three available names that leap off my board are: LB Eric Norwood (who to me seemed like a Dansby clone), a fast-rising CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah and TE Clay Harbor.

Rod is trading down 7 picks, and I just have to hope that one of the three are still there when we pick at #130. To my horror, click-click-click: Norwood, Ansah and Harbor come off the board in quick succession.

The Cardinals now approach #130 with their top-rated CB and last reasonable fill-in for Dansby off their board. So what does Rod do? He "lives off the land" and its decided that our next best move - given what was left on the board - was to expand the Cardinal risk-tolerance to draft a LB who - if and when healthy could actually start for us. So we rolled the dice on Schofield who is coming off a really bad knee injury.

The check-list is now down to CB, QB and TE and we have three picks. Rod is worried about losing Skelton so he uses McFadden to trade up to get him.

The Cards must have liked Calvin (who has a Toler-like backstory) a bit more than they did Jefferson, and they checked off that box with their 6th pick. They then used their 7th pick to fill in the final TE box on their To-Do list, with a big soft-handed TE (Dray) who can block but also has knee problems in his history.

"Live off the land." Adjust "on-the fly." Pursue two parallel strategies - (1) draft for value while also (2) filling in the boxes on your check-list.

That's what I think the Cardinals did; that's how I think everything went down. And - although I'm still playing "woulda-coulda" over Norwood or Ansah - I think Rod, Michael and Wiz did a very football-sound job of conducting their draft. They accomplished what they set out to accomplish and each move, in one form or the other, figures to have helped the team either in the long or short-range
.
 
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Vermont Maverick

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Thanks Harry.

I really think that Baltimore was going to take Williams at 25 until Denver wowed them with the offer to move up for Tebow. Baltimore ended up with Mount Cody in the second, and they just are a great drafting team that always takes value guys, especially on defense. So that collective gasp was really a thank you to Denver's Josh McDaniel.
 

Vermont Maverick

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Jeff-

I think you bring up a valid point on Ansah. I was looking at him, too. Obviously, since we traded McFadden, we had no intention of keeping him. That means we knew we were really in need at CB. I don't know if the Cards liked Ansah or not, but if he truns out to be a good CB, we may really regret that move. That is the one piece of the draft that I question - not taking a CB higher knowing that the team was not happy with McFadden. It is scary-thin there.
 

WildBB

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That gust of air Arizona residents felt Thursday night was not the Santa Ana winds; it was the result of a collective sigh from the Cardinal management staff. .

It’s too early to panic about what the Cards still need to do. You already know I’m not losing sleep over McFadden’s departure. This was a good draft, both for now and the future. It may be a couple of years before everyone sees how good. I make it a B out of the chute with lots of upside.


Me neither.

Great overall writeup, thanks. :thumbup:

I'm stoked about this draft and what it brings to the table. We were PRO-ACTIVE and got the players WE WANTED - NEEDED for OUR SCHEME.

Real exited about the prospects for some of the later picks. Your eval's on Schofield and breakdown on Skelton is encouraging.

AND add to that the GREAT potential of our newest reciever and return/wildcat specailist!! :)
 

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