Froholdt

[Totally_Red]

Back on topic, I think Froholdt will start the season as the starting center, even though I don't think he should start the season as the starting center.

Yeah some of these signings reek of signing someone you like versus a good player.

 

[Cardiac]

There are a plethora of talking heads who are raving about what Monti has done in this draft. Now a majority of this is about the setup for the 2024 draft. I look at it as generational wealth, if done correctly Monti can keep turning these #1 picks into more and future #1 picks.

 

[Stout]

There are a plethora of talking heads who are raving about what Monti has done in this draft. Now a majority of this is about the setup for the 2024 draft. I look at it as generational wealth, if done correctly Monti can keep turning these #1 picks into more and future #1 picks.

Let's hope Monti isn't doing this year-in, year-out, because it'll mean we suck and are getting picks in the top 10 of the draft. Teams don't pay the big bucks--first rounders--to trade up to a pick in the 20s, per se. Maybe once in a blue moon, but not often.

 

[kerouac9]

There are a plethora of talking heads who are raving about what Monti has done in this draft. Now a majority of this is about the setup for the 2024 draft. I look at it as generational wealth, if done correctly Monti can keep turning these #1 picks into more and future #1 picks.

Real galaxy-brained thinking to value an asset that you never cash in. The tendency in the NFL is toward the middle. It's more likely the Cards will have picks 8 and 12 in the 2024 draft than 1 and 3.

 

[BritCard]

Real galaxy-brained thinking to value an asset that you never cash in. The tendency in the NFL is toward the middle. It's more likely the Cards will have picks 8 and 12 in the 2024 draft than 1 and 3.

You are are cashing it in. That's like saying you don't really make anything from investments because it's not real cash in your hand even though the dividend checks keep on rolling in.

Let's say we had a top 3 pick next year and there is Williams, Maye and Penix Jr at the top of the draft. You turn that pick into say #12, #44 and two future firsts and a player then you turned your 3000 draft points into 8000 draft points. You spend the #12 and #44 and have the rest invested in the future.

You can't do it forever, the time will come (hopefully) where your picking too late for it to keep working but essentially what Monti is doing is investing draft capital to turn it into greater draft capital.

 

[oaken1]

The 2023 draft could qualify as the best draft ever... if a couple guys work out...and Houstons 2024 pick turns into Marvin Harrison Jr.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I

You don’t know this; no one does.

Why can’t we just wait to see how many draft picks make the team and then if the team is any good before making any pronouncements?

Someone who has 10 tickets to win a raffle is going to have a better chance of winning than someone who only has 1 or 2. Surely you can agree to that.

 

[kerouac9]

You are are cashing it in. That's like saying you don't really make anything from investments because it's not real cash in your hand even though the dividend checks keep on rolling in.

Let's say we had a top 3 pick next year and there is Williams, Maye and Penix Jr at the top of the draft. You turn that pick into say #12, #44 and two future firsts and a player then you turned your 3000 draft points into 8000 draft points. You spend the #12 and #44 and have the rest invested in the future.

You can't do it forever, the time will come (hopefully) where your picking too late for it to keep working but essentially what Monti is doing is investing draft capital to turn it into greater draft capital.

Yes. If you live in a fantasy land where this happens you can go on forever reaping multiple first round picks on this trade. The NFL is exactly like the stock market.

Again, it's more likely that we end up with picks 6 and 14 than 2 and 5 next year.

Someone who has 10 tickets to win a raffle is going to have a better chance of winning than someone who only has 1 or 2. Surely you can agree to that.

Yes, but if there are 40,000 entrants to the raffle, the improvement of chances is so extremely minor as to not functionally matter. I just don't get so many people counting their chickens before they've hatched.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yes. If you live in a fantasy land where this happens you can go on forever reaping multiple first round picks on this trade. The NFL is exactly like the stock market.

No but you can turn a high pick into multiple high picks for a few years. Miami showed how it's done.

Again, it's more likely that we end up with picks 6 and 14 than 2 and 5 next year.

True, but let's say hypothetically that Michael Penix Jr. is available at pick six and a team sitting at nine believes he's the missing piece, the Cardinals could do the same trade again.

Yes, but if there are 40,000 entrants to the raffle, the improvement of chances is so extremely minor as to not functionally matter. I just don't get so many people counting their chickens before they've hatched.

Bad analogy since there are only about 250 players with draftable grades. Getting 12 picks vs 7 creates marginally better odds with a much smaller pool. Where the real difference comes is when you add picks in the top 75. The Cardinals should be able to grab 8% of the top 75 players in the draft which significantly improves the odds of getting good players.

 

[Cardiac]

Real galaxy-brained thinking to value an asset that you never cash in. The tendency in the NFL is toward the middle. It's more likely the Cards will have picks 8 and 12 in the 2024 draft than 1 and 3.

Very well may be the case but I'm thinking one of the picks will be top 5.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Bad analogy since there are only about 250 players with draftable grades. Getting 12 picks vs 7 creates marginally better odds with a much smaller pool. Where the real difference comes is when you add picks in the top 75. The Cardinals should be able to grab 8% of the top 75 players in the draft which significantly improves the odds of getting good players.

To be fair, I was the one that brought up the raffle analogy.

 

[kerouac9]

No but you can turn a high pick into multiple high picks for a few years. Miami showed how it's done.

True, but let's say hypothetically that Michael Penix Jr. is available at pick six and a team sitting at nine believes he's the missing piece, the Cardinals could do the same trade again.

Bad analogy since there are only about 250 players with draftable grades. Getting 12 picks vs 7 creates marginally better odds with a much smaller pool. Where the real difference comes is when you add picks in the top 75. The Cardinals should be able to grab 8% of the top 75 players in the draft which significantly improves the odds of getting good players.

Yeah but we're not talking about draftable players, we're talking about quality NFL starters, and there are fewer of those and they're rarer to find in the draft, especially outside the top 60 picks or so. Very few picks made even in the third round look like starters on a good football team after three years.

Josh Jones is an obvious example here. Plus, this was probably a draft class that will rank somewhere between underwhelming and historically awful. That's why the players coming off the board were all over the place compared to many "experts" projections and ratings.

 

[gmartin]

Quantity should not be the sole or primary measure of the quality of a draft. It's hilarious to put that out there before anyone has even taken a snap in rookie camp.

Agree, also same standards for free agents, or perception of lack of a center. I am willing to give the new regime a chance. It is possible they have a plan, and more insight and knowledge about players than us wannabe GM's

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yeah but we're not talking about draftable players, we're talking about quality NFL starters, and there are fewer of those and they're rarer to find in the draft, especially outside the top 60 picks or so. Very few picks made even in the third round look like starters on a good football team after three years.

Josh Jones is an obvious example here. Plus, this was probably a draft class that will rank somewhere between underwhelming and historically awful. That's why the players coming off the board were all over the place compared to many "experts" projections and ratings.

I agree overall.

As I've mentioned before, I occasionally look at NFL draft classes on Wikipedia from years ago, and it's shocking how few end up being good NFL players... especially after about the second round.

 

[Harry]

Very well may be the case but I'm thinking one of the picks will be top 5.

Statistically 2

 

[gimpy]

To be fair, I was the one that brought up the raffle analogy.

Well, who on here wants to be fair?

 

[BritCard]

Again, it's more likely that we end up with picks 6 and 14 than 2 and 5 next year.

How is it more likely? The odds of any 2 random numbers from 32 are identical from a purely mathematical perspective.

But if you factor in rosters, vegas odds, power rankings, the winning records of first time head coaches (the average is 6-10) and general NFL expert opinion top 10 on both is far more likely than not.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Well, who on here wants to be fair?

Me. I always try to be fair, lol.

 

[kerouac9]

How is it more likely? The odds of any 2 random numbers from 32 are identical from a purely mathematical perspective.

But if you factor in rosters, vegas odds, power rankings, the winning records of first time head coaches (the average is 6-10) and general NFL expert opinion top 10 on both is far more likely than not.

I said it in my earlier post: the NFL is designed to approach mediocrity. Three-win seasons are an outlier. 25 teams last season finished with seven wins or better. I've said it many times, but you have to try to be bad in the NFL.

Don't care anything about power rankings or NFL expert opinion at this time of year. Many people thought that the Commies and Seahawks would be the worst in the NFL at this time last year and had the Broncos or Chargers pencilled in for the Super Bowl.

If Kyler comes back before Week Seven and Jonathan Gannon can do his job, it's really hard to imagine the Cards being a four-win team without real shenanigans. If you think that Kliff and Keim were handicapping this team by three wins a year, how do you do much worse, even without J.J. Watt in the lineup?

The average first-time head coach last year won 7.67 games.

 

[BirdGangThing]

I said it in my earlier post: the NFL is designed to approach mediocrity. Three-win seasons are an outlier. 25 teams last season finished with seven wins or better. I've said it many times, but you have to try to be bad in the NFL.

Don't care anything about power rankings or NFL expert opinion at this time of year. Many people thought that the Commies and Seahawks would be the worst in the NFL at this time last year and had the Broncos or Chargers pencilled in for the Super Bowl.

If Kyler comes back before Week Seven and Jonathan Gannon can do his job, it's really hard to imagine the Cards being a four-win team without real shenanigans. If you think that Kliff and Keim were handicapping this team by three wins a year, how do you do much worse, even without J.J. Watt in the lineup?

The average first-time head coach last year won 7.67 games.

The average first-time head coach isn't limited to a 10 game season with their starting quarterback, plus losing the aforementioned JJ Watt - and Murphy and Zac and trade requests from their WR1 and starting Safety. You should know we're going to be that bad, and that Monti plans to let us bleed out completely before the resurrection. It's written on the wall, aka 1 year 1 million dollar contracts. If this team wins 7 games this season I'll eat 7 piles of crow

 

[kerouac9]

The average first-time head coach isn't limited to a 10 game season with their starting quarterback, plus losing the aforementioned JJ Watt - and Murphy and Zac and trade requests from their WR1 and starting Safety. You should know we're going to be that bad, and that Monti's plans to let us bleed out completely before the resurrection. It's written on the wall, aka 1 year 1 million dollar contracts. If this team wins 7 games this season I'll eat 7 piles of crow

The average first-time head coach rarely walks into a team with a franchise QB in place already. I agree that the Cards have a pile of perverse incentives to be bad this year. I think it's more likely that Kyler starts fewer than eight games.

That said, I'm not the person gushing over instagram videos of Kyler doing squats on schedule, either.

The Houston Texans have zero incentive to be bad. Maybe we end up with picks three and twelve.

 

[HairZach]

Statistically 2

Texans really weren't losing by a lot last year, if both Stroud and Anderson are good I could see them doing at least what the 2019 Cardinals did and winning 5 or 6. Now if Stroud turns out to be another Haskins things will get interesting.

 

[Chopper0080]

The average first-time head coach rarely walks into a team with a franchise QB in place already. I agree that the Cards have a pile of perverse incentives to be bad this year. I think it's more likely that Kyler starts fewer than eight games.

That said, I'm not the person gushing over instagram videos of Kyler doing squats on schedule, either.

The Houston Texans have zero incentive to be bad. Maybe we end up with picks three and twelve.

The Texans pick has some things working against it. In the South, Indy has a raw QB and Tennessee has Tannehill.

 

[kerouac9]

The Texans pick has some things working against it. In the South, Indy has a raw QB and Tennessee has Tannehill.

They also play the NFC South, which projects to be pretty mid. Also us.

A lot hinges on what you think the AFC North will look like. Is Deshaun Watson cooked? Whither the Ravens?

 

[Cardiac]

Let's hope Monti isn't doing this year-in, year-out, because it'll mean we suck and are getting picks in the top 10 of the draft. Teams don't pay the big bucks--first rounders--to trade up to a pick in the 20s, per se. Maybe once in a blue moon, but not often.

Can't one of the top 10 picks be from the team we traded the prior year. Doesn't mean the Cards are the team that's sucking.

If the Cards determine KM is the QB going forward then next year can deliver extra 1st Rd picks for the next couple years. Those picks could be from teams that suck and will be drafting high again. The cycle continues.