Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
Bruce Arians inherited an offense that is dreadfully slow---people put all kinds of blame on the offensive line and the QBs---but, in the NFL today, especially on third down conversions, you have to have WRs and TEs who can gain separation in less than three seconds.
As much of the blame for this team's NFL-awful ability to convert third downs belongs to the Cardinals' WRs---partly because they are not deep threats, so teams can play up and press them without any real sense of fear, and partly because they are not short-area quick enough to shake press coverage.
Take a close look at the Cardinals' percentages of third down conversions and how they have fallen sharply ever since the trio of Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston left the lineup:
2008: 41.9%
2009: 36.9%
2010: 27.8%
2011: 32.2%
2012: 25.7%
Do you realize how horrible this is?
When you look at the league leaders in first downs and third down conversions during that same span, the two teams that are repeatedly at the top of the league are New England and New Orleans....
In fact, over that same six year period, take a look at the Patriots' third down conversion percentages:
2008: 43.2%
2009: 47.4%
2010: 48.2%
2011: 45.8%
2012: 48.7%
Now---take into consideration the impact that slot WR Wes Welker has had in helping to make the Patriots perennial NFL leaders in first downs and in third down conversions.
Wes Welker---last 6 years: 672/7,459/11.1/37 TDs
Most catches and yards of any NFL WR in that span.
Check Fitz and Andre Johnson's stats the last 6 years:
Fitzgerald---last 6 years: 534/7,278/13.6/53
Johnson-----last 6 years: 507/7,301/14.4/39
Take it a step further---
People will say you don't draft a small, slot WR high in the draft---OK---you might be very surprised to see this:
Scouts' Inc Top Ten Rated WRs (heading into the 2012 season):
1. Calvin Johnson---Lions
2. Larry Fitzgerald---Cardinals
3. Andre Johnson---Texans
4. Steve Smith---Panthers
5. Greg Jennings---Packers
6. Hakeem Nicks---Giants
7. Roddy White---Falcons
8. Wes Welker---Patriots
9. Percy Harvin---Vikings
10. Mike Wallace---Steelers
When you peruse this list, what do you realize?
Did you realize that only 3 of these WRs are above 6'0" tall?
That is correct.
Steve Smith: 5-9, 185.
Greg Jennings: 5-11, 198.
Roddy White: 6-0, 211.
Wes Welker: 5-9, 185.
Percy Harvin: 5-11, 184.
Mike Wallace: 6-0, 199.
But, we drafted a WR in the first round last year.
True, but Michael Floyd does not have the short area quickness to gain consistent separation.
What about Andre Roberts?
He heads into his contract year and he was very inconsistent playing the slot. He does not look comfortable there. I think he will improve this year, but if we really want to create a matchup nightmare for the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams and the rest of our opponents, imagine the hair pulling they would have to do in trying to figure out a way to match up with Tavon Austin's quickness and speed.
When Tavin Austin catches a WR bubble screen he is shot out of a cannon---no one on our roster has that ability.
When you look at BA's staple of play calls---he sets his deep passing attack up by inching the secondary up in trying to defend the bubble screens and quick hitters.
Having Tavon Austin changes everything for Fitzgerald and Floyd.
Why?
The safeties have to worry about defending Austin in the middle, in the flats and up the seams and sidelines. Austin's speed has to be accounted for---you have to know where he is at all times.
What about drafting another speedy WR alter in the draft?
Marquis Goodwin had 26 touches at Texas last year.
The real answer is: there is no one in this draft or in free agency that can thrive in this role the way Tavon Austin can.
it's not even close.
Situational Football:
We keep hearing Bruce Arians refer to this term---and no weapon in this draft gives him the upper hand in situational football the way Tavon Austin does. When you have a slot WR you can move around like the queen on a chessboard---and force teams to try to cover his extraordinary quickness and speed, it opens everything else up.
Star Power:
We've seen what the addition of Patrick Peterson has had on the defense and the football team.
Tavon Austin brings star power in a big way---and he would be for the offense what Patrick Peterson is for the defense---that and the two of them on STs would be about as electric as lights in Times Square.
First Round Question Marks:
The only two players who are not tagged with questions marks or potential medical or work ethic red flags are:
T Luke Joeckel
G Chance Warmack
They are the two safest picks in the draft---and you can't argue with taking either one of them---but at #7, and especially with the the question marks that keep popping up about the other top 10 touted prospects---will Joeckel or Warmack be available at #7?
Can Tavon Austin stay healthy?
He did at West Virginia.
Look at the way he plays---no one gets big hits on him because he has an uncanny way of playing amazingly quick and fast while maintaining exemplary body control, to the point where he will duck under and dart sideways to avoid contact. He's got Barry Sanders type feet and vision---and Sanders was amazing at avoiding big hits.
Tavon Austin gives us the best chance to score points and keep the football moving down the field...everything we've been missing for the past three years.
As much of the blame for this team's NFL-awful ability to convert third downs belongs to the Cardinals' WRs---partly because they are not deep threats, so teams can play up and press them without any real sense of fear, and partly because they are not short-area quick enough to shake press coverage.
Take a close look at the Cardinals' percentages of third down conversions and how they have fallen sharply ever since the trio of Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston left the lineup:
2008: 41.9%
2009: 36.9%
2010: 27.8%
2011: 32.2%
2012: 25.7%
Do you realize how horrible this is?
When you look at the league leaders in first downs and third down conversions during that same span, the two teams that are repeatedly at the top of the league are New England and New Orleans....
In fact, over that same six year period, take a look at the Patriots' third down conversion percentages:
2008: 43.2%
2009: 47.4%
2010: 48.2%
2011: 45.8%
2012: 48.7%
Now---take into consideration the impact that slot WR Wes Welker has had in helping to make the Patriots perennial NFL leaders in first downs and in third down conversions.
Wes Welker---last 6 years: 672/7,459/11.1/37 TDs
Most catches and yards of any NFL WR in that span.
Check Fitz and Andre Johnson's stats the last 6 years:
Fitzgerald---last 6 years: 534/7,278/13.6/53
Johnson-----last 6 years: 507/7,301/14.4/39
Take it a step further---
People will say you don't draft a small, slot WR high in the draft---OK---you might be very surprised to see this:
Scouts' Inc Top Ten Rated WRs (heading into the 2012 season):
1. Calvin Johnson---Lions
2. Larry Fitzgerald---Cardinals
3. Andre Johnson---Texans
4. Steve Smith---Panthers
5. Greg Jennings---Packers
6. Hakeem Nicks---Giants
7. Roddy White---Falcons
8. Wes Welker---Patriots
9. Percy Harvin---Vikings
10. Mike Wallace---Steelers
When you peruse this list, what do you realize?
Did you realize that only 3 of these WRs are above 6'0" tall?
That is correct.
Steve Smith: 5-9, 185.
Greg Jennings: 5-11, 198.
Roddy White: 6-0, 211.
Wes Welker: 5-9, 185.
Percy Harvin: 5-11, 184.
Mike Wallace: 6-0, 199.
But, we drafted a WR in the first round last year.
True, but Michael Floyd does not have the short area quickness to gain consistent separation.
What about Andre Roberts?
He heads into his contract year and he was very inconsistent playing the slot. He does not look comfortable there. I think he will improve this year, but if we really want to create a matchup nightmare for the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams and the rest of our opponents, imagine the hair pulling they would have to do in trying to figure out a way to match up with Tavon Austin's quickness and speed.
When Tavin Austin catches a WR bubble screen he is shot out of a cannon---no one on our roster has that ability.
When you look at BA's staple of play calls---he sets his deep passing attack up by inching the secondary up in trying to defend the bubble screens and quick hitters.
Having Tavon Austin changes everything for Fitzgerald and Floyd.
Why?
The safeties have to worry about defending Austin in the middle, in the flats and up the seams and sidelines. Austin's speed has to be accounted for---you have to know where he is at all times.
What about drafting another speedy WR alter in the draft?
Marquis Goodwin had 26 touches at Texas last year.
The real answer is: there is no one in this draft or in free agency that can thrive in this role the way Tavon Austin can.
it's not even close.
Situational Football:
We keep hearing Bruce Arians refer to this term---and no weapon in this draft gives him the upper hand in situational football the way Tavon Austin does. When you have a slot WR you can move around like the queen on a chessboard---and force teams to try to cover his extraordinary quickness and speed, it opens everything else up.
Star Power:
We've seen what the addition of Patrick Peterson has had on the defense and the football team.
Tavon Austin brings star power in a big way---and he would be for the offense what Patrick Peterson is for the defense---that and the two of them on STs would be about as electric as lights in Times Square.
First Round Question Marks:
The only two players who are not tagged with questions marks or potential medical or work ethic red flags are:
T Luke Joeckel
G Chance Warmack
They are the two safest picks in the draft---and you can't argue with taking either one of them---but at #7, and especially with the the question marks that keep popping up about the other top 10 touted prospects---will Joeckel or Warmack be available at #7?
Can Tavon Austin stay healthy?
He did at West Virginia.
Look at the way he plays---no one gets big hits on him because he has an uncanny way of playing amazingly quick and fast while maintaining exemplary body control, to the point where he will duck under and dart sideways to avoid contact. He's got Barry Sanders type feet and vision---and Sanders was amazing at avoiding big hits.
Tavon Austin gives us the best chance to score points and keep the football moving down the field...everything we've been missing for the past three years.
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