Hawks reported to offer JJ max contract

[thegrahamcrackr]

I think it is pretty clear that if/when Joe gets a max contract Marion will probably have to go in the next year or two.

I agree that the Suns would love him to retire here. He is the first homegrown kid in a while, and a fan favorite. 4 max deals will make it pretty hard to keep him though, and Marion is the odd man out.

I cannot see anything happening this summer though. They will take most of the roster in the next season to see what happens. If they don't take the title, then things will be mixed up.

 

[joshstmarie]

(Put on your tinfoil hats.)


If Phoenix HAD to get rid of Marion, my hope would be that they could land Dalembert. They would probably need to take on Mashburn's contract to do so, though.

I read somewhere (I think hoopshype) that Dalambert is looking for the max or close too it. With all of the overpayment for big men these days who's to say he wont get it? So the Daly idea doesnt look to really solve any of our problems, which of course would be to free up cap room.

 

[Chaplin]

I'll say it right now, and I'll probably catch some flak for it, but Samuel Dalembert is not worth anywhere near a max, and probably never will be.

 

[joshstmarie]

I'll say it right now, and I'll probably catch some flak for it, but Samuel Dalembert is not worth anywhere near a max, and probably never will be.

Agreed, but i think he and steven hunter are both going to make a lot more money than they are worth based off one word.....potential.

 

[JS22]

You totally contradicted yourself in that post though. That's what I was addressing. It's not a big deal, of course, I just noticed it is all.

No. I did not contradict myself. I just posted what I thought would be an interesting scenario. And with all of the crazy rumors going around, I posted on what sort of scenario could play out. (I even told everyone to put on their tinfoil hats!)

Towards the end I made a point of saying that it will most likely NOT happen. It's not like I said the Suns WERE 100% going to trade Marion, only to then say it's not going to happen. THAT would be contradicting myself.

Without any far fetched posts, this board would be empty during the summer.

 

[B-Dogg]

JJ is my favorite player on this team, but I honestly dont believe he is a max player, Stat is the only max player on this team, I think maybe a sign and trade with Atlanta would be the move to make they have some decent young talent that they could trade back to us along with a draft pick or two and give this team the flexability it needs for years to come. If we sign JJ to the max we will have to trade Marion, and to do that we will more than likely have to take on bad contracts in return becasue Marion isnt getting any younger and thrives on his athletisism so as that starts to detoriate it is going to hurt Marions game more than is would another player, who for example has a great shot or is a great defender... JMO

 

[Mainstreet]

Again if it was a 'free market' (unrestricted free agency) like E-bay that would be a serious concern.

RFA means only that we have the rights to match and sign an offer for JJ.However, to extend the analogy, the Suns cannot pay more than the buy-it-now price and the most someone else can bid is lower than that price.

IMO, when the Suns passed on JJ last season they essentially missed the "buy-it-now" option (what he was asking then/ 55 million?). However, I understand what you are saying.

 

[Yuma]

Even if we match JJ for the max another team can offer for 5 years, and make our match in salary a 6 year deal, or even a million more at 6 years, we essentially get JJ chaeper than anyone else on a per year deal!

 

[George O'Brien]

I hate reporters who give incomplete information. They report that the Hawks have offered a "max contract" and the Suns offered less than the max. The problem is that it is not clear the Hawks offer (if real) is for more money. Due to the extra year, the Suns can offer more than other teams and still not reach the max they MIGHT offer.

One of the biggest differences between the new CBA and the old one is that length of the deals. The extra year the original team can offer is a bigger percentage of the total time period.

The psychology involved is significant. No one knows what their value will be five or six years from now. Injuries or just declining skills might mean the player could be worth a lot less at the end of the contract. However, there is another factor - the agent.

A five year deal for $66 million is worth more per year than a $70 million deal for six years. However, there is no guarantee the agent will be with the player when the next contract is being negotiated.

 

[Yuma]

I agree. We could have offered a 6 year less than max. I think in that case, no way anyone could top us. The only reason JJ wouldn't sign yet, in that possibility, is maybe his agent is waiting like Amare's agent to find out all the particulars of the new CBA before inking the deal.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

If Atlanta has offered JJ the max you would think he most likely will come back to the Suns before signing the offer, but JJ does have a little Dice in him so you never know.
As long as Sarver learned from this, step up sign him for the max (if he signs) go for the title the next two years then figure out what you need to do.

oh and btw, I also agree with the poster who said Dalembert is overratted bravo to you for stepping out of the box on this board of Dalembert jock sniffers.

 

[boisesuns]

I Agree is JJ gets the max money that marion would be the odd man out. Marion will be here for a few more years i'm sure. If we were to trade him, then nash wore out, we would be really thin again. I like marion's game, but it also would be interesting to see what we could get for him. That being said i still like marion and how he fitson this team, and i'm not sure who else would fit as well. He still gets poits but he can't create his own shots. We have three guys who can. Marion is Option #4 (assuming JJ is still here).

 

[sunsfn]

One of the biggest differences between the new CBA and the old one is that length of the deals. The extra year the original team can offer is a bigger percentage of the total time period.

QUOTE]

Just to make sure here.

In the old CBA the original team could offer 7 years with a 12% increase annually, and the new team could offer 6 years with a 10% increase annually.

In the new CBA the original team can offer 6 years with a 10% increase annually, and the new team can offer 5 years with an 8% increase annually.

-

 

[Kolo]

Here our salary outlays, in millions, for the next 5 years for our starting 5 and Raja Bell as our 6th man, assuming JJ and Amare get max deals (my math may not be entirely accurate, but I think it's close):

05/06 $58
06/07 $57 (dips by losing
07/08 $62
08/09 $62 (we lose Kurt Thomas)
09/10 $38 (we've lost Nash and the Matrix)

 

[Azlen]

If the Suns don't match the offer, I think their credibility takes a bit of a hit. They said they would match any offer for JJ even if it is the max. So if they don't match a max contract, why would anyone ever believe anything they had to say again?

 

[elindholm]

I do not think the Suns should match a maximum offer for Johnson. Yes, he looked good at times last season, he has the potential to be a star, and it would hurt to lose him. But that price is just too high.

I personally don't think that Johnson is even a top-five SG. Some people will say that Bryant is a rapist, McGrady is really a SF, Allen is old, Hughes is erratic, and Redd is one-dimensional. That's fine, but it smacks of homerism. Johnson brings things to the table that no one else does, but you don't have to have ideally versatile players at every position. What you need is a versatile roster, and if the Suns really go with four $10+ million contracts for the next four years, there's simply no way they can have overall roster versatility.

I'm one of many on this board who has been saying for the last month that Johnson is more important to the team than Marion. But I've changed my mind about that. It's much easier to remember games last season when Marion came up huge than it is to remember games when Johnson did. Losing Johnson for that handful of playoff games was rough, but would the Suns have had any easier of a time if Marion had been lost instead? I seriously doubt it.

I'm excited about what Johnson might become, but there's a limit to how much of a commitment should be made on "potential." We're talking about someone who has never come close to making an All-Star team, whose career high is a mere 31 points, and who hits double figures in rebounds or assists only once in a blue moon. It's possible, even likely, that his numbers would go up on a different team, but the question is how valuable he really is to the Suns.

If Johnson really wants to sign a maximum offer sheet from Atlanta, I hope the Suns can work out a three-way trade, where they get a good player or two in return and the third team gets (in effect) Atlanta's cap space. (Heck, the third team and player could even be Portland and Ratliff.... Not really.) Johnson helps the Suns, but other players can help too. $70 million over five years can bring a lot of talent to the roster, and there have to be better ways of spending that kind of money than on Joe Johnson.

 

[elindholm]

They said they would match any offer for JJ even if it is the max.

It isn't clear that they ever said that. The only quotes I've read have been things like "Extending Johnson is a priority" and "Other teams will be wasting their time." That's not quite the same as guaranteeing, "We will match any offer." In fact, that management hasn't come right out and said, in plain English, that they'll match any offer could be interpreted as a sign that they want to keep their options open.

 

[coloradosun]

Exactly.

Sunsfn said it himself: the NBA is a business. And if what we're doing isn't business, then I don't know what is.

You don't just go throwing the max at someone when it is unclear that they'll get it. Take Kobe for an example--to get him, you'd definitely offer the max, because there is a 100% chance that he will get offered the max. With JJ, though, that isn't guaranteed, and there is no reason for the team for which he plays (remember, he isn't unrestricted) to determine his market value for him. That's bad business.

I agree, it is a business and you let your market forces determine the value.

It was earlier posted that someone expects us to match an offer, I want to be more specific. I think the Suns will match the dollar amount of another teams offer. If JJ is offer 5 years 70M, I am in agreement with the other poster that they will submit a counter offer of 6 years for 70M. The Suns only have to match Atlanta's offer if JJ signs the offer sheet. If the Suns put 70M on the table JJ will not sign the offer sheet. As far as I see it 70M is 70M and if that 70M is with the Suns a championship could be involved. I would hope that JJ would compromise a little cash to help the team stay together, it would help add a couple of other players for strengthing the bench.

JJ will be 30 after the contract is up and will be in a position to sign a 5 year contract after that and who knows where salaries will be at that time.

 

[sunsfn]

I do not think the Suns should match a maximum offer for Johnson. Yes, he looked good at times last season, he has the potential to be a star, and it would hurt to lose him. But that price is just too high.

I personally don't think that Johnson is even a top-five SG. Some people will say that Bryant is a rapist, McGrady is really a SF, Allen is old, Hughes is erratic, and Redd is one-dimensional. That's fine, but it smacks of homerism. Johnson brings things to the table that no one else does, but you don't have to have ideally versatile players at every position. What you need is a versatile roster, and if the Suns really go with four $10+ million contracts for the next four years, there's simply no way they can have overall roster versatility.

I'm one of many on this board who has been saying for the last month that Johnson is more important to the team than Marion. But I've changed my mind about that. It's much easier to remember games last season when Marion came up huge than it is to remember games when Johnson did. Losing Johnson for that handful of playoff games was rough, but would the Suns have had any easier of a time if Marion had been lost instead? I seriously doubt it.

I'm excited about what Johnson might become, but there's a limit to how much of a commitment should be made on "potential." We're talking about someone who has never come close to making an All-Star team, whose career high is a mere 31 points, and who hits double figures in rebounds or assists only once in a blue moon. It's possible, even likely, that his numbers would go up on a different team, but the question is how valuable he really is to the Suns.

If Johnson really wants to sign a maximum offer sheet from Atlanta, I hope the Suns can work out a three-way trade, where they get a good player or two in return and the third team gets (in effect) Atlanta's cap space. (Heck, the third team and player could even be Portland and Ratliff.... Not really.) Johnson helps the Suns, but other players can help too. $70 million over five years can bring a lot of talent to the roster, and there have to be better ways of spending that kind of money than on Joe Johnson.

elindholm,

Let me enlighten you to the NBA salary system.
---------------------
The Cleveland Cavaliers will sign Washington Wizards' free agent guard Larry Hughes. The deal is reportedly worth an estimated $12 million a year and will run through the 2010 season.
-------------------
Michael Redd is going to get a max deal in Milwaukee for $90 to $96 million, depending on what the cap is, over six years.
-------------------

I do not believe either of them is worth that amount of money.

I do not believe JJ is worth that amount of money.

But, that is not the way it works in the wacky world of the NBA!

If you have a player of JJ's quality and are serious about winning a title you pay him market value...........plain and simple!

To say things like he is not a top 5 player and Marion had more memorable games last year means to me you did not watch many suns games.

elindholm,
How many games do you get to watch of the suns 80 game schedule? and specifically how many did you watch last year.
Do you have NBA tv or some cable service in Ca. so you can see the games? They were not on the game of the week many times so you had to have some way to watch them.
Do you read the paper and the box score every day to get your info.?

The comments you make sometimes leads me to think this is a fair question to ask you.

--

 

[Chaplin]

elindholm,

Let me enlighten you to the NBA salary system.

Not to be condescending at all, right? I think Eric has a pretty good grasp of the NBA salary system.

 

[sunsfn]

Not to be condescending at all, right? I think Eric has a pretty good grasp of the NBA salary system.

Maybe as far as putting numbers together, but not as far as what players are paid.

 

[Chaplin]

Maybe as far as putting numbers together, but not as far as what players are paid.

Sounds like you're talking about reality vs. worth. The reality was that Adonal Foyle made a ton of money, but the worth was the complete opposite. But that is an extreme case, and the difference usually is much smaller.

 

[SweetD]

Even if JJ gets a max offer he still will not break the top 30 for salaries in the NBA and as of right now I think he is close to a top 30 player.

 

[sunsfn]

Sounds like you're talking about reality vs. worth. The reality was that Adonal Foyle made a ton of money, but the worth was the complete opposite. But that is an extreme case, and the difference usually is much smaller.

Chaplin,
I am talking about reality here.

And the cases I use are the signing of Redd & Hughes.

I state they are not worth that, but the reality is they are going to get paid that, and that is what happens in the NBA every year.

Hughes was offered appx. 6 mil a year to sign with the Wizards, and it upset him to the point where he was not going to resign with them if he got a chance to sign elsewhere. There is no telling what his real value is and it does not matter, a team out there decided to offer him a lot more than he was worth.

-

 

[elindholm]

elindholm,

Let me enlighten you to the NBA salary system.

Thanks, I appreciate that.

(bunch of examples deleted)

Are you telling me that often players get overpaid? I did already know that, believe it or not. It's also true that teams often get stuck behind bloated contracts. Do you think those phenomena might be related?

If you have a player of JJ's quality and are serious about winning a title you pay him market value...........plain and simple!

That's your opinion. You act as though Johnson is irreplaceable -- if the Suns don't pay him max dollars, they'll have to play four-on-five all next season. That simply isn't true. Another player could bring other skills to the table. Maybe he wouldn't be as good as Johnson, but maybe, by getting the other player, the Suns would be in a position to make other moves that would strengthen the team further.

Do you have NBA tv or some cable service in Ca. so you can see the games?

What an unbelievable question. Anyone who disagrees with you must be uninformed? And people call me arrogant on this board?

Yes, I have League Pass on DirecTV. Perhaps you've heard of it. I watched at least half of the games last year. For what it's worth, I also look at box scores.

The comments you make sometimes leads me to think this is a fair question to ask you.

Ask away, sport. I have nothing to hide.

I guarantee that if the Suns have four max (or near-max) contracts, we'll all be saying at some point, "Gee, it would be nice to get a player like X, but we don't have any salary flexibility." It's a tradeoff. You can lock up your players now, or you can give yourself the chance to make a better move later. It's a judgment call on a case-by-case basis, and there is no clear answer. My hunch is that signing Johnson to a maximum extension will be too constricting for the level of play that he brings.