How Much More Accurate Can Rosen Become

[Chris_Sanders]

I was challenged with "I don't know what Rosen will become" so I tried to see if I could find out.

The stat that is the most troublesome with Rosen is his completion percentage. It is always the biggest predictor for long term QB success.

Rosen was last in expected completion percentage of all starters. 2nd to last in regular completion percentage.

So where can he go from 55.2%?

To answer that, I pulled all the starting QBs last year.

To make sure I get a proper sample size, I compared 1st year starting at least 8 games to the next year starting at least 8 games. This way a spot start or injury doesn't impact the data.

I looked at 1st year completion percentage, 2nd year completion percentage, and career completion percentage.

This required the QB to have played at least 3 years. This gave me a sample size of 24 QBs

Here is what I found:

The averages of all QBs were 60.0% completion in year 1. Average QB career percenrage is 3% higher than where they started.

QB 1st year 2nd year Difference Career Career Diff 1 Carer Diff 2
Completion % 60.0% 60.9% 0.9% 63.1% 3.1% 2.2%

You can see that there is typically little growth between year 1 and year 2 in completion percentage.

This is actually because 12 of the 24 QBs completion percentage went down not up.

I wasn't ready for that. You just think that guys naturally improve in year 2 but half of the starting QBs got worse.

Of those that improved, half of them improved by only 3% or less. Two were between 4% and 5%

There were just 4 QBs who improved by between 6 and 7%. That is what would be needed to get us to league average for a 2nd year QB (Goff, Keenum, Luck, Stafford)

If I remove those that were already accurate to begin with (anyone above league average), then our average percentage growth is 3.5% for QBs who weren't accurate in year one but were still starting last year.

Using that same metric, we saw a 4.7% increase in career projections.

So we end up with 58.7% completion in year 2 with a career 59.7%

The closest QB in that range is Eli Manning

 

[Jetstream Green]

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[BleedRed]

Did you factor in all the dropped passes and throw aways when under pressure?

 

[football karma]

good stuff Chris

the numbers arent encouraging

i guess i hold out hope in that the offense around Rosen, even pre-Rosen, was historically bad (i.e. an outlier)

 

[Harry]

The number of variables makes that type of comparison challenging. If you had 2 years of data I would think this would be more defining though that would miss your point.

 

[dscher]

Sample size just isn't there.. that's what makes this whole debate fun, but maddening at the same time. We know what we have, but don't. Lol

 

[b8rtm8nn]

Great work. When I was watching Rosen’s UCLA games, I could see the inaccuracies, which I ironically would put on the wrong technique for the throw ( massive stance and delivery for a 10 yard slant, which almost always went high ) vs his not taking the easy short throw and playing hero ball, which put pressure on him and he would force a ball and lose accuracy. And when the game pressure is on in the fourth quarter, he can become consistent and accurate for several series, bewilderingly.

I can see why a coach would think that if he is still malleable and open to coaching, he could get a big jump in accuracy (beyond the norms you tracked) as a lot of it seems between the ears vs just not being accurate.

Such a gamble, but I would definitely say that he is at his floor right now. Five coordinators over 4 seasons, several of them garbage, probably any bad habits he has have never been addressed because he hasn’t been in the same offense twice.

And none of us know what he is like from the perspective of the new coaching staff either. This sucks

 

[slanidrac16]

The only view I would add to this is how totally incompetent this offense was to go along with a total lack of talent on the o-line and the lack of playmakers at Wr. In addition to that was the plan was for Rosen to sit last year, in which case we would probably not be talking about Murray quite as much. I do remember KK stating the plan was to put him in a position to excel but Rosen would have to show he could make the correct decision WHERE to throw the ball. I think Rosen has a lot of pressure on him in these ota’s.

 

[TheCardFan]

The other facts that matter...there isn't a rookie QB that ever endured what Rosen did last year. 1 and done HC, OC fired a few games into the season, new OC has never called plays before, one of the worst Olines, and one of the worst WR groups to top it off. Throw in some of significant drops and you now have a throw away year.

Rosen showed toughness and leadership, which is something to build on. I can't say whether he will turn into the QBOF but there is no doubt he can't fairly be judged on year 1.

 

[Shane]

The other facts that matter...there isn't a rookie QB that ever endured what Rosen did last year. 1 and done HC, OC fired a few games into the season, new OC has never called plays before, one of the worst Olines, and one of the worst WR groups to top it off. Throw in some of significant drops and you now have a throw away year.

Rosen showed toughness and leadership, which is something to build on. I can't say whether he will turn into the QBOF but there is no doubt he can't fairly be judged on year 1.

Chris's stats while intriguing amount to a lot of nothing. Those are in a vacuum and not analyzing all the factors surrounding Rosen. Factors that were far worse then what Tannehill or any other rookie QB have had to deal with. Stats dont tell an entire story and never have.

 

[PJ1]

With an OL and a running game, add a full compliment of NFL receivers. He can improve his completion % quite a bit.

 

[Ohcrap75]

We had so many WR without experience. Unless you know the playbook there is no way to know how many times a WR or QB weren't on exact same page. Rosen was often throwing to a spot. If WR couldn't get off press, rounded route, broke off early or late the pass would be incomplete even if the ball went exactly where he wanted it. PFF can watch film and "guess" but it's still their interpretation of what was supposed to happen, not black and white. That's why all stats= grain of salt.

 

[TheCardFan]

The closest QB in that range is Eli Manning

Thanks for all the effort in putting this together. Its interesting that Eli Manning is the closest to him...that is his best QB comparison.

 

[football karma]

i will say this:

there were lots of quick throws -- short throws -- where i was just "WTF?"

im talking wr screens where the WR had to go backwards a yard and half to catch the ball, or, jump way high to get it, or have it short hopped to him. These are no pass rush pressure, open WR throws that were just terrible.

these are the kinds of passes where early in the game, the color guy says "see, they are giving the QB some simple throws to get him into rhythm" yet........

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

I was challenged with "I don't know what Rosen will become" so I tried to see if I could find out.

The stat that is the most troublesome with Rosen is his completion percentage. It is always the biggest predictor for long term QB success.

Rosen was last in expected completion percentage of all starters. 2nd to last in regular completion percentage.

So where can he go from 55.2%?

To answer that, I pulled all the starting QBs last year.

To make sure I get a proper sample size, I compared 1st year starting at least 8 games to the next year starting at least 8 games. This way a spot start or injury doesn't impact the data.

I looked at 1st year completion percentage, 2nd year completion percentage, and career completion percentage.

This required the QB to have played at least 3 years. This gave me a sample size of 24 QBs

Here is what I found:

The averages of all QBs were 60.0% completion in year 1. Average QB career percenrage is 3% higher than where they started.

QB 1st year 2nd year Difference Career Career Diff 1 Carer Diff 2
Completion % 60.0% 60.9% 0.9% 63.1% 3.1% 2.2%

You can see that there is typically little growth between year 1 and year 2 in completion percentage.

This is actually because 12 of the 24 QBs completion percentage went down not up.

I wasn't ready for that. You just think that guys naturally improve in year 2 but half of the starting QBs got worse.

Of those that improved, half of them improved by only 3% or less. Two were between 4% and 5%

There were just 4 QBs who improved by between 6 and 7%. That is what would be needed to get us to league average for a 2nd year QB (Goff, Keenum, Luck, Stafford)

If I remove those that were already accurate to begin with (anyone above league average), then our average percentage growth is 3.5% for QBs who weren't accurate in year one but were still starting last year.

Using that same metric, we saw a 4.7% increase in career projections.

So we end up with 58.7% completion in year 2 with a career 59.7%

The closest QB in that range is Eli Manning

Great post, wish your research could compare all those other QB's to Rosen's stats while playing behind the same horrible off line lol. That's the worst off line I've ever witnessed & I've been a cardinals fan since 1976 & I've seen some bad ones in that span trust me.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

i will say this:

there were lots of quick throws -- short throws -- where i was just "WTF?"

im talking wr screens where the WR had to go backwards a yard and half to catch the ball, or, jump way high to get it, or have it short hopped to him. These are no pass rush pressure, open WR throws that were just terrible.

these are the kinds of passes where early in the game, the color guy says "see, they are giving the QB some simple throws to get him into rhythm" yet........

Probably still gun shy from the last hit lol?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Did you factor in all the dropped passes and throw aways when under pressure?

As I have already proven, the Cardinals had an above average catch rate. Rosen is the worst QB in the league when the receiver is open and he has time to throw.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The thing I liked about doing this is it takes away my bias. I am not looking to prove any point, but just more looking at curiosity.

Honestly it gave me some hope because Stafford would be the top end comparison here. Stafford is the only QB to raise his accuracy over 9% in his career from his year 1.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

We had so many WR without experience. Unless you know the playbook there is no way to know how many times a WR or QB weren't on exact same page. Rosen was often throwing to a spot. If WR couldn't get off press, rounded route, broke off early or late the pass would be incomplete even if the ball went exactly where he wanted it. PFF can watch film and "guess" but it's still their interpretation of what was supposed to happen, not black and white. That's why all stats= grain of salt.

Except I looked at a huge sample size.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Great post, wish your research could compare all those other QB's to Rosen's stats while playing behind the same horrible off line lol. That's the worst off line I've ever witnessed & I've been a cardinals fan since 1976 & I've seen some bad ones in that span trust me.

While the line was bad, Rosen's time to throw was better than 22 other starters. By the end of the year teams were only rushing 3 and 4 and Rosen couldn't read the complicated defenses in front of him in that instance.

This is where he has the biggest opportunity to improve with experience.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

While the line was bad, Rosen's time to throw was better than 22 other starters. By the end of the year teams were only rushing 3 and 4 and Rosen couldn't read the complicated defenses in front of him in that instance.

This is where he has the biggest opportunity to improve with experience.

I can't imagine 22 other off lines being worse than ours lol. Just wanna see JR work with TC & KK, I truly believe we will witness a totally different QB.

 

[DVontel]

I can't imagine 22 other off lines being worse than ours lol. Just wanna see JR work with TC & KK, I truly believe we will witness a totally different QB.

Yea, that’s just not believable & I’m not even defending Rosen here.

 

[Ohcrap75]

Except I looked at a huge sample size.

From the subject?

 

[CardLogic]

If the Cardinals get Eli Manning type career from Rosen I will be more than happy with that.

 

[dscher]

Chris's stats while intriguing amount to a lot of nothing. Those are in a vacuum and not analyzing all the factors surrounding Rosen. Factors that were far worse then what Tannehill or any other rookie QB have had to deal with. Stats dont tell an entire story and never have.

I tend to agree..we can't really use stats to account for much at this moment. It really just comes down to gut feel with the new guy you just hired and who he feels will best lead his offense in the future. I think anyone not living in denial land will know where that takes us. Jmo. But, if they don't pull this move on draft day, then it will say he sees enough in Rosen...and I can live with that.