I'm so tired of the Caleb Williams / Kyler talk on Twitter already and football only just started.
My view,
1, I don't think the Cards are tanking. I think Keim left the team in a bad place with some bad contracts, dead money and general low level of talent and that the FO are trying to turn that around in a sensible way. This year is a transition year, I don't think they intend to tank.
2, I believe the FO and coaching staff when they say they are all in on Kyler, and Kyler believes it too. You can see he is enthused and invigorated by this staff and he seems like a changed man.
3, Kyler is a former #1 pick who has played well in the league. He's no bust. What's the need to move on from him? He's not Mitch Trubisky or Blake Bortles. And the Org thought enough of him to give him a $46m per year deal. I don't see why that would change in a year.
4, The difference between prime Kyler and prime Williams isn't that much, if anything at all. The teams focus should be on enabling prime Kyler.
5, Nobody eats $59m in dead money. They just don't. Especially Bidwill. And you don't turn an Org around with a new QB by eating $59m in dead cap. It would be setting Caleb Williams up to fail anyway with a dire roster.
6, I don't think the Cards or Texans finish with the #1 pick. The odds are just against it. What teams look like pre season is rarely how they look on the field, especially when you factor in injuries. If a rookie QB struggles, or a middling team lose their starting QB then things rapidly change.
7, If we did finish with #1 there is far more value to the Cards in trading it than drafting Williams. As I said in #4, the difference between prime Kyler and prime Williams is minimal if any. Keeping Kyler and getting multiple 1st round picks offers far more value than Caleb Williams and $59m in dead cap.
8, To achieve the tank they would have to sit Kyler all year. I just don't see how you do that if Kyler is healthy. If he's healthy by Game 5 and wants to play you can't not play him. If you don't play him you are teleraphing the tank, you lose the locker room and Gannon is done. You run the risk of alienating your massively paid QB and missing out on Williams. And you couldn't keep a healthy Kyler around. You would have to trade him before the trade deadline for a bag of donuts.
There are just far too many things against it in my opinion.
The possible way I see it happening is if Kyler comes back, the team and coaches are truly behind him, but he really sucks. Which is possible, but very unlikely. And even then I think it's a tough sell with his deal and you can tell yourself he's still not mentally over the injury and worth another year. And you have the picks from trading your high draft pick to use on a QB next year if needed.
